DecSc 31 PDF - Student Performance Review

[MOD 1] Lecture 1: Decision Definition - Conclusion or resolution reached after consideration - Commitment to a course of action arising from crisis, problems, or opportunities - Made in the present with future consequences Decision-making - Decision-making is the process of selecting amon...

[MOD 1] Lecture 1: Decision Definition - Conclusion or resolution reached after consideration - Commitment to a course of action arising from crisis, problems, or opportunities - Made in the present with future consequences Decision-making - Decision-making is the process of selecting among alternatives. Simon (1965) mentions that there are three elements in making decisions: 1. Intelligence Activity a. Define and clarify the situation in which a decision is required 2. Design Activity a. Identifying alternative options and analyzing these alternative courses of action 3. Choice Activity a. Choosing a course of action among those available Example 1: Where should I expand to as a food business? 1. Intelligence Activity a. Business is growing rapidly, more orders are coming in daily. 2. Design Activity a. Hire more for production, set up a stand in Makati, or do nothing 3. Choice Activity a. Wait for time to solve the problem Example 2: Opening on a holiday 1. Intelligence Activity a. Good revenue, want to rest b. Will people come? Low foot traffic c. Good demand for the product 2. Design Activity a. Research foot traffic b. Do I open it or not? c. Delivery only? d. Specific times only 3. Choice Activity Data-driven Decision - Making a data-driven decision can involve multiple layers. - Components: Business Tactics, Mathematical Formula, Technological Applications, Behavioural Science Good decisions vs Good outcomes Decision Analysis - The examination of the process that led to selecting an alternative.  Exercise: The Standards Committee Assumptions 1. They have not met the sophomore yearly QPI of 1.90 and they are currently appealing to be put on probation. 2. Assume that all data found in their letter have supporting documents. First Case: ED 1. Hour-long drives and household duties cut into his study time 2. Met with the program director and was advised to communicate with professors better 3. Father is recovering and he will not need to travel home nearly as often. 4. Athlete because of the PE 5. Grades a. Cumulative QPI: 1.74 b. Year level QPI i. 1: 2.68 ii. 2: 0.97 c. Year 2 i. Sem 0: 2.25 ii. Sem 1: 1.67 iii. Sem 2: 0.00 (2 Fs, 1 Incomplete, 4 Withdraws) Analysis 1. The poor grades were due to an exceptional and distressing personal situation. 2. Improvement Plan: ED has a clear plan for improving their performance, including better communication with professors and time management. 3. Support Structure: The situation that affected their performance is now resolved, which means they are less likely to face similar issues going forward. 4. Commitment: ED shows commitment to making necessary changes and has already taken steps to improve. Second Case: JJT 1. Mental health, depression because of the death of a loved one 2. Improving conditions 3. Athlete because of the PE 4. Grades a. Cumulative QPI: 2.15 b. Year level QPI i. 1: 3.11 ii. 2: 1.37 c. Year 2 i. Sem 0: 2.25 ii. Sem 1: 0.33 (4 Fs, 1 W) iii. Sem 2: 2.00 Analysis 1. JJT’s struggles were also due to significant personal issues, which affected their academic work. 2. Lack of Improvement Plan: JJT does not provide a clear plan or specific steps they will take to improve their academic performance in the future. 3. While JJT's hardships are valid, the lack of a concrete improvement plan and a clear commitment to addressing their academic issues raises concerns. 4. If the university is inclined to offer support, it might be beneficial to provide JJT with additional counseling or academic support resources, but it might be prudent to consider a more structured plan for them to demonstrate readiness for probation. Decision 1. External pressure was experienced by the students. 2. Neither of them was at fault for declining grades except for the part that they should have communicated better with their professors. 3. Put both students on probation under the following conditions: a. Allow ED to finish the incomplete subject b. Make sure that JJT submits proof that he is now in the right mental state to continue his studies at XYZ University. If not, maybe consider putting him at LOA after giving him a probationary period. c. Let them retake all failed and withdrawn subjects d. Do not allow them to partake in: i. Athletic competitions ii. Org-led events as a core team member 4. Restrictions help ensure that students focus on their academic recovery without distractions. [MOD 1] Lecture 2: Rational Decision Making 1. Identify the problem a. Define and parametrize b. The nature of the current situation, the nature of the preferred situation, and the central objective that distinguishes both c. Widen the decision problem and limit the scope d. Describe and enumerate the details e. Not always the apparent problem on hand i. Limits the potential solutions 2. Establish decision criteria a. Reference to values, interests, and preferences of the decision-maker b. Value Tree i. Enumerate all possible attributes ii. Branch out from general terms to something that is measurable c. How do I check my value tree? i. Completeness: Are all the attributes required present? ii. Operationality: Can I properly measure the attribute? Can I make judgments on this? iii. Decomposability: Can each attribute be assessed independently? iv. Absence of redundancy: Do any of the attributes represent the same thing? v. Minimum Size: Is the tree too large? Can any attributes be combined? 3. Weigh decision criteria a. Assessing priorities 4. Generate alternatives a. Potential solutions, creative process b. How to generate alternatives? i. Brainstorming: Do an idea dump and generate as many examples as possible. ii. Reverse brainstorming: Think of how the problem can fail or worsen. iii. Perform a SWOT analysis: Look into intersections between strengths and opportunities, or weaknesses and threats. iv. Benchmarking: Look around and observe what the competition is doing. v. Mindmap: Look into different aspects of the decision and identify strategies visually. 5. Evaluate and select the best alternative a. Crossing out choices The OACTURI model is an acronym for a seven-step process: 1. Objectives: What do we want to achieve in making this decision? 2. Alternatives: What are the different options and courses of action available? 3. Consequences: When measuring my alternatives versus the main objectives, what possible consequences arise? 4. Tradeoffs: What tradeoffs exist in selecting a particular alternative? 5. Uncertainty: Are there uncertain factors present in my environment? How do these impact any of my consequences? 6. Risk: How willing are we to take on any risks? Are there risks that we can eliminate or lessen? 7. Information: Are there other pieces of information that will help me make my decision? Remarks: Decision Fatigue ○ Deteriorating quality of decisions after a long session of decision-making ○ Essentially, mental fatigue. Sometimes, we find ourselves unable to make decisions due to too much decision-making Solution ○ Reduce the number of decisions you have to make ○ Make some decisions early on or immediately; don’t hold off if you don’t need to. ○ Creating and sticking to a routine; developing daily habits Decision Paralysis ○ Overthinking or over-analyzation leads to no solution at all ○ Too much-delaying action due to overthinking certain aspects ○ Decision paralysis does not only waste time, it also takes a toll on your productivity No matter how rational and high-minded you try to be, you can’t make decision after decision without paying a biological price. It’s different from ordinary physical fatigue – you’re not consciously aware of being tired — but you’re low on mental energy. Notes on case study: ○ Adhere to the criteria of value treeBounded Rationality ○ Attribute comparison brief summary after weighing criteria Bounded Rationality The idea that individuals operate within the limits of their knowledge (bounded): they make decisions with limited information, time, and resources, rather than optimizing perfectly Due to these constraints, most decisions involve decision-makers settling for a good enough decision. How does this affect decision making? ○ Information will always be limited; decision-makers are also unable to process all information if available. ○ Decision- makers will settle for a satisficing solution due to limited resources, instead of an optimal choice. ○ Due to cognitive limits, we may rely on heuristics or rules for certain decisions. Confirmation Bias The tendency to seek for and take cue from evidence that conforms with our existing beliefs, even when this discards information that is more reliable. We may fail to even identify the root cause of a problem if the information conflicts with our personal beliefs. To put some extent, a manifestation of our pride -> we like being right. “Man prefers to believe what he prefers to be true.” - Francis Bacon, English philosopher How then do we minimize these lapses in rational decision making? 1. Take control of your thinking. Understand the unconscious influences that dictate your decision-making. 2. Lessen the limitations to decide by working as a team and gathering as much information as possible. Module 1 Summary 1. Decisions involve selecting among alternatives. Decision analysis allows us to determine the thinking behind a certain decision being made. 2. As good outcomes do not necessarily come from good decisions, we want to focus on how to make the best decisions possible. 3. To aid us in making good decisions, we can follow a five-step process called the rational decision-making process. This involves identifying a problem, determining your decision criteria, and selecting the best alternative based on this. 4. Because of the many decisions we make on a single day, our quality of decisions can sometimes decline due to our use of shortcuts. As we are prone to this, we must ensure we can avoid it as much as possible. [MOD 2] Lecture 1: Quantitative Frameworks Single Objective Decisions that are focused on achieving a single outcome or a goal. The objective stated is prioritized completely over other more minor objectives Usually formulated beginning with the words “maximize” or “minimize” Quicker or more straightforward decisions; usually when time or resources are limited Multiple Objective Decisions involving multiple objectives Multiple objectives will sometimes conflict; decision-makers must learn to balance these interests and prioritize More complex problems; trade-offs may be necessary due to conflicting objectives Decision making under uncertainty: Payoff Table A payoff table is a table showing the expected payoffs or outcomes for different alternatives, under different conditions. Maximax Framework Approach: Optimistic This framework assumes that the decision maker is optimistic, and that they believe no matter what decision they make, the best possible consequence will follow. For this approach, select the best payoff for each alternative, and then select the best payoff among those alternatives. Crane games Minimax Framework Approach: Pessimistic Slightly coming from Murphy’s Law: anything that can go wrong will go wrong. As such, the decision maker will assume the worst. To use this approach, select the worst payoff for each alternative. From there, select the alternative with the best payoff. Insurances Minimax Regret Framework Approach: Minimizing regret Decision makers would not like to regret making a decision. This usually happens when there is a second party to a decision; a party that might force the main decision maker to select the choice that will lead to the least amount of regret. This approach begins by calculating the regret for each option. The regret is the opportunity lost if a certain option is not chosen. Get the difference between the best outcome in each scenario and each alternative. Dominance Principle Imagine a payoff table such as this where you have more options. It will be easier to perform analysis after applying this principle, which states that an alternative dominates another alternative if the one has better or equal outcomes in all scenarios vs. the other. With this, we can safely eliminate dominated alternatives and simplify our decision-making.