Climate Change Science I ENV221H Past Paper Oct 3, 2024 PDF

Climate Change Science I ENV221H Oct 3, 2024 writing assignment for october 22: s assignment: should we go on renewables, efforts on policy, science, geoenginerring, should we have penalitie...

Climate Change Science I ENV221H Oct 3, 2024 writing assignment for october 22: s assignment: should we go on renewables, efforts on policy, science, geoenginerring, should we have penalities and ssee if we will be successful by lowring emissions. what changed between first to successful one, was it a good game and was it realistic. play the game and identify the stragties to get net zero, reflect on see if its realistic and thought and what changes u have, and recommendation for canada to get to zero. you. must know david orr! 1  The years 2015 to 2022 were the eight warmest years on record 2 x is time period they show is different. they take the average of 1850 - 1900 and set that to zero which is pre -industrial. this could be a test, explain zero and the axis and what they represent. u have to draw + explain. 1860 it flunctuates because climate is very variable. recent is actual data. 3 oraange is warmer than the avg of 1951-1980. some are cooler. most places are experiencing more warmer temps. in polar regions it is even greate than 4! us is 1.5. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures 4  From our sun’s energy output and our distance from it you so we can target better solutions: only new energy we get is from the sun! the would predict that Earth should have a temperature of -18 __oC earth's distance from the sun, they can tell us how warm should Yet, Earth’s global average temperature is about__ 15 oC the sun be coming from the distance only What factors account for the ‘extra’ __ oC? so simple calculations. physicists do this. – Composition of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, water lithosphere surface of the earth it is actually supposed – Nature of EMR (sunlight) and its various fates to be very cold -18C! the average is actually 15C -18 to +15 it is 33C! so they ask why? we have an atmosphere around the earth thats why we have to understand what is in that atmosphere and what energy. 5  Causes of Global Climate Change  Greenhouse gases absorb infraredwhich is just heat radiation warms atmosphere  We are increasing concentrations of these gases 6 we want to understand why our climate is changing when solar radiation is changing. our atmosphere is made up of greenhouse fgases gasses allow solar radiation to pass through the atmosphere. visible light is penetarting to through. visible light is transformed to heat, which is the red arrow. and some may escape but most of it is trapped. we are changing the concentrations of the gases and we are trapping more heat onto the surface of the earth. atmosphere if we didnt have it the energy would escape.  Greenhouse Gases Gases that can absorb and emit infrared radiation what are the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere? - water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone those are the most common in our atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is the main one 7  Natural & Enhanced Greenhouse Effect  Radiative forcing – the imbalance in the Earth’s energy budget that results when the amount of energy radiated to outer space is changed through either natural or human influences something is happening to the earth to warm  Positive forcing results in ________ warming  Negative forcing leads to ________ cooling... to cool. natural and not that work compare changes we've made with the imbalance. 8  Cooling the Atmosphere  Some pollutants cool the atmosphere  Atmospheric aerosols very tiny particles that occur in the atmosphere. natural or human resource like human activities  Natural & human sources natural: volcanic eruptions and they can linger. it takes a long time for them to drop back at earth.  Reflect sunlight into space  Cools atmosphere  Sulphur haze, volcanic eruptions pollutants cool the atmosphere as it blocks out incoming solar radiation. bcuz of volcanic eruptions it may take a while for earth to warm back up because of the aerosols. 9  Causes of the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect  Important factors: amount of gas emitted and properties of the gas  Average residence time: length of time gas resides in the atmosphere indicator>  Global warming potential: how much given mass of greenhouse gas contributes to global warming over a period of time compared to the same mass of carbon dioxide whats the global warming potential of these greenhouse gases? we are suffering from warming not cooling. its not just how much but also the property of the gas itself. 10 so how long does it stay in the atmosphere? some can go in a day like water vapour, and some very long.  Table 1. Current greenhouse gas concentrations. Current Increased Pre-1750 Atmospheric Gas tropospheric 100-year GWP radiative forcing concentration lifetime (years) concentration global warming (watts/meter2) potential 280 parts per 412 parts per we set Variable (up to the one thats going Carbon dioxide million million 1 it at 1 200 years) 1.66 to be felt on earth. meaning it is 23x as u increase the 688-730 parts per 1,730-1,847 parts more powerful than gases how much Methane billion per billion 1 unit 23 12 0.5 warming are they going to have on 270 parts per 318-319 parts per earty. Nitrous oxide billion billion 296 114 0.16 Not applicable due Tropospheric 25 34 to short residence Hours to days 0.35 ozone time Industrial gases Primarily 0.34 for all Up to 545 parts per Ranges from 140 to (HFCs, PFCs, 0 trillion 12,000 between 5 and halocarbons halons) 260 years collectively Sulfur 5.22 parts per 0 22,200 3,200 0.002 hexafluoride trillion how long it it is adding 0.5watts tstays in the per meter to the earth? atmosphere 11 we're concentrating on co2 (even if u look at the numbers) because we're looking at the amount of radiative forcing.  Data source: Reconstruction from ice cores. Credit: NOAA they were relatively stable than recent years. 2023/2024 they drill it into the ice cores from ice that was around years ago. https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/ 12  temp & co2 conc. 13 the 2 figures r similar in trophs and peaks. so when co2 goes down temp goes down. scientitsts have better confidence in increasing co2 leads to an increase in temperatures.  we were undergoing a cooling phase until recently remains under 0 which means it is actually cooler compared to 1961-1990. year 1k to 2k 14 Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, there has been an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from 280 ppm to 426 ppm (NASA, July 2024) 15 The current climate paradigm or how the majority of climate scientists ‘understand’ the ~1.1 oC warming since 1880s all the scientific work has led to this Not the warmest period in Earth’s history. we cannot explain it naturally However, unique in that it cannot be explained by any natural forcing mechanisms as we currently understand them. “Assessments based on physical principles and model simulations indicate that natural forcing alone is unlikely to explain the increased rate of global warming since the middle of the 20th century. The trend in natural forcing has likely been negative over the last two decades, while the climate has warmed.” -IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) 16 the sun cycles like every 11 years so it outputs a certain amount of energy at a certain time. so its not natural u cannot blame the sun.  Distance/angles between Earth and the Sun the Earth's position and orientation relative to the sun (our orbit) varies, bringing us closer and farther away in predictable cycles (the so-called Milankovitch cycles). Variations in these 3 cycles are believed to be the cause of Earth's ice-ages (glacials). eliptical can stretch or shrink. and it has a wobble when it is rotating and all of those variations can influence how much energy can reach the earth's surface. 18  Milankovitch Cycles Periodic shifts in earth’s orbit and tilt Change distribution and intensity of sunlight reaching the earth. 19 Milankovitch Cycles – changes duration & intensity of sunlight reaching the Earth (21.5 – 24.5 º) 20  Milankovitch cycles go a long way to explaining at least some past ice-ages and hence long- term, natural cycles of change in Earth’s climate, but they are unlikely to have very much impact on a timescale of just a Precession (wobble) cycle = 19-23,000 yrs century Obliquity (tilt) cycle = 41,000 yrs Eccentricity cycle = 100,000 yrs 21  Changes in atmospheric composition can explain overall patterns in Earth’s climate and account for the changes of the last 150 years we can't blame the cycles or solar activity we have to blame the greenhouse gases 22 Understanding (and predicting) how atmospheric CO2 levels (and climate) may change in the future, means we need to understand where carbon is stored and how it moves around. 23 Carbon Cycle 24  5 significant pools in the carbon cycle 1. Atmosphere (875 Gt or ~412 ppm) 2. Forests/Soils (610 Gt/1580 Gt) soil: whenn trees/plants die 3. Surface ocean (1,020 Gt) 4. Deep ocean (38,100 Gt) 5. Fossil Fuel (5,000 Gt) how it gets in and where it is stored. where carbon is stored The pools are not as important as the fluxes!  Carbon Fluxes how carbon moves from the carbon cycle Photosynthesis/respiration take in oxygen and break it down and combing it with glucose and expel co2 into the atmosphere Changing land use, e.g. Deforestation, forest regrowth Surface ocean flux Flux to the deep ocean Fossil fuel when we burn it where it goes? 26  The Global Carbon Project (Friedlingstein et al., 2019) estimated that over the decade of 2009-2018, total emissions were partitioned: – atmosphere (44%), – ocean (23%), – land (29%), and – unattributed budget imbalance (4%) deep ocean Global fossil CO₂ emissions which include coal, oil, gas and cement production. Data updated from Friedlingstein et al. (2020). 28  Global Fossil CO2 Emissions Global Carbon Project Global fossil CO2 emissions reached a new record high of 36.7 Gigatonnes (Gt) in 2019, 62% higher than in 1990. Global CH4 emissions from human activities have continued to increase over the past decade. Current emissions of both CO2 and CH4 are not compatible with emissions pathways consistent with limiting global warming at 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/united_in_science 29 https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-019-02711-4/index.html https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-019-02711-4/index.html  https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-019-02711-4/index.html highly insuffience they promised but it wasn't sufficient but instead it was increasing the temp  they have a very developed lifestyle population size actions over the history of time https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-019-02711-4/index.html how we want to slowly move towards to no fossil fuels. the publics for renewables have actually diminshed recently.  some of the concerns and impacts IPCC International Panel on Climate Change Leading international body for assessment of climate change Established in 1988 by World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme Purpose to provide clear scientific view on current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts 37  Scientific body: reviews and assesses, does not conduct research Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of IPCC on voluntary basis Provides rigorous & balanced scientific information to decision makers Policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral Never policy-prescriptive they represent figures and make it policy neutral! they dont say you have to, they just show evidence, that it should work better basically is what they say 38  First Assessment Report (FAR) – 1990 Second Assessment Report (SAR) – 1995 Third Assessment Report (TAR) – 2001 Assessment Report 4 (AR4) – 2007 Assessment Report 5 (AR5) – 2013/14 – 2500+ scientific expert reviewers – 800+ contributing authors – 450+ lead authors – 130+ countries 39 40  Summary Findings of AR5 (2013/2014) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. 41  The Uninhabitable Earth New York Magazine 2017 ‘Doomsday’ – Peering beyond scientific reticence Heat Death - The bahraining of New York. The End of Food – Praying for cornfields in the tundra Climate Plagues - What happens when the bubonic ice melts? Unbreathable Air - A rolling death smog that suffocates millions. Perpetual War - The violence baked into heat. Permanent Economic Collapse - Dismal capitalism in a half-poorer world. Poisoned Oceans - Sulfide burps off the skeleton coast. The Great Filter - Our present eeriness cannot last. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html  Impacts of Climate Change Temperature increases Changes in precipitation Melting ice and snow Rising sea levels, coastal erosion Increase extreme weather events Organisms and ecosystems Societal – Agriculture, Forestry, Health, Economics 43 44  https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures- 45 matter/  Why 1.5 C? we’re talking about the increase in the Earth’s average temperature from baseline average temperature ~1960-1990 ~ 1.5 C of global warming seems to be enough heat/energy to tip many natural systems that sustain us past a dangerous turning point. 46 1450-1850 47 48 https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/ https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/  IPCC projects going from 1.5 – 2 C will result in... 1.7 billion more people experience severe heatwaves at least once every five years. Seas rise – on average – another 10 centimeters (almost 4 inches). Up to several hundred million more people become exposed to climate-related risks and poverty. The coral reefs that support marine environments around the world could decline as much as 99 percent. Global fishery catches could decline by another 1.5 million tonnes. 51  Changes in Arctic & Antarctica Polar amplification Arctic temperatures increasing close to twice the rate as rest of the world The region is now experiencing most rapid and severe climate change on Earth 52  53 https://scitechdaily.com/arctic-sea-ice-reaches-second-lowest-minimum-on-record/ https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ 54  Changes in Arctic & Antarctica  Melting sea ice  Rise in sea level, devastating impacts on coastal communities  Increasing coastal erosion rates  Changing salt levels in ocean  marine transport and access to resources  Vegetation zones and animal range will change  Extinctions  Disrupt transportation, buildings and other infrastructure 55  Extreme Weather Events Changing planet’s radiative balance Alters global temperatures and moisture levels Impacts frequency and intensity of storms 56  Climate Change Impacts on Oceans Ocean acidification Sea level rises Sea temperatures impacts frequency & intensity of storms, sea ice 57  Ecological Effects  Every species on earth affects  Some will expand and thrive – example Mountain Pine Beetle  Inter-related ecosystem changes  At greatest risks are  polar seas  coral reefs (bleaching)  mountain ecosystems  coastal wetlands  tundra  biodiversity loss 58  Climate change impacts on ecological processes in marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems. Brett R. Scheffers et al. Science 2016;354:aaf7671 Published by AAAS  Fig. 2 Climate impacts on ecological processes. Brett R. Scheffers et al. Science 2016;354:aaf7671 Published by AAAS  Changes in Agriculture Challenges to Food Security 61  Health Effects of Global Climate Change  More heat-related illness  More malaria, dengue & yellow fever, schistosomiasis, cholera 62 Dealing with Global Climate Change  CO2 must be the focus  Two ways to manage  Mitigation  Adaptation 63 Adaptation to Global Climate Change 64 Mitigation of Global Climate Change  Reducing CO2 emissions  Plant and maintain trees  Geoengineering/climate engineering  CO2 management: separate and capture; sequester from atmosphere; artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization  Solar radiation management – reduce amount of solar radiation reaching the earth, e.g. spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of sulphur dioxide, mimics volcanic eruptions 65 66 67