Change in the Modern World PDF

Survey     World order 1945--1989, including: - **World Order**: - The arrangement of power and authority that provides the framework for the conduct of diplomacy and world politics on a global scale. - The events of the first half of the 20th century taught political...

Survey     World order 1945--1989, including: - **World Order**: - The arrangement of power and authority that provides the framework for the conduct of diplomacy and world politics on a global scale. - The events of the first half of the 20th century taught political leaders and policy makers that international cooperation was essential to peace and security. - 1945: United Nations established to achieve international cooperation. Establish institutions and organisation to promote development.  - Cold War limited effectiveness of UN in its early years due to superpower rivalry between the US and Soviet Union whose contrasting economic, political and social systems were at odds with one another. - American Century: US adopts interventionist foreign policy. Politicians saw US role as and supporting governments with shared values necessary for securing free global trade. - Postwar period ended with fall of Berlin Wall in 1989, and US emerged as the sole superpower. - The competition between the ideologies of capitalism and communism spilled over into a political and military rivalry which saw the US and Soviet Union attempt to establish themselves at the dominant power post WWII.  - **Background**: - Sovereign countries compete or cooperate to achieve their national interests. - Rooted in the Cold War and changes post-1989-1991 collapse of communism in USSR and Eastern Europe. - **Cold War Dynamics**: - Over 45 years of ideological conflict between America and the Soviet Union. - Capitalism vs. Communism led to intense political and military rivalry. - Nuclear weapons increased the danger of the conflict. - **Post-WWII Superpowers**: - US and Soviet Union emerged as superpowers after WWII. - US\'s vast manufacturing base produced significant war materials. - Tensions were evident at the Potsdam Conference in July 1945. - **Rebuilding Europe:** - The Soviet Union's heavy sacrifices during WWII. - The Red Army remained in Eastern Europe post-war. - US and Soviet Union had conflicting aims for the post-war world. +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | **Postwar aims of the US** | **Postwar aims of the Soviet | | | Union** | | -Build strong open markets  | | | | -Maintain Soviet security | | -Support self-determination | | | | -Survival of communism, Eastern | | -Rebuild a strong Germany | bloc adopted systems of | | | government sympathetic to | | | communism | | | | | | -Keep Germany Weak | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ **Containment ** - Truman willing to contain communism with military and financial support. E.g. Turkey, Greece, \$15 billion Marshall Plan.  Marshall Plan (1948): US provided \$12 billion in economic aid to rebuild Western Europe. - Second front of Cold War: 1 October 1949 People's Republic of China= fears communism would spread throughout Asia. - Domino theory: Confirmed by Korean and exacerbated by Vietnam. - 1949: Soviet Union develops nuclear weapons.  Both sides develop new type of diplomacy to avoid direct confrontation.  - Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) - 1962: Cuban Missile Crisis resulted in hotline established between Kremlin and Whitehouse and curbing of nuclear weapons. **Detente 1962-1979** - Detente: relaxation of tension. - Success: - West German leader Brandt adopts Ostopolitik\'s "Eastern policy" to build closer ties with Eastern Block reduced threat of war in Europe. - Failure:  - Right wing in US thought detente allowed Russians to gain nuclear parity. - Tensions in the Middle East: US supported Israel, SU supported Arab southern neighbours = Six Day War 1967, Yom Kippur War 1973. - When the American-back Shah of Iran ousted by Islamic coup in 79 & SU invaded Afghanistan= end of detente and renewal of Cold War +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | **Reagan 1981-1989** | **Gorbachev 1985-1991** | +===================================+===================================+ | - Staunch anti-communist who | - Believer in socialism. | | criticised Soviets and | | | detente. | - Policies perestroika | | | (economic restructuring), | | - Proposed extension of the arm | glasnost (openness) led to | | race= Strategic Defence | pro-democratic movement | | Initiative (SID) /Star Wars | contributing to fall of the | | | SU | | - So committed to the program | | | he squandered opportunity to | - Promoted innovation and | | pursue 'zero option' to | incentives to factory owners | | eliminate nuclear weapons at | to improve economy, Comrade | | Reykjavik summit '86. | Orange Juice even banned | | | vodka! | | - Sought greater co-operation | | | with Gorbachev after '85. | - Perestroika allowed modest | | | market reforms. | | | | | | - Repealed Brezhnev Doctrine | | | (Soviet guarantee to | | | intervene militarily where | | | democracy/ capitalism | | | threatened regime) = | | | pro-democracy uprisings in | | | East Germany, Hungary and | | | Poland.  | | | | | | - Responded to calls for | | | democratic reform by allowing | | | free elections=Boris Yeltsin | | | elected President 1991. | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | **Perestroika** | **Glasnost** | +===================================+===================================+ | - Introduced by: Mikhail | - Introduced by: Mikhail | | Gorbachev | Gorbachev | | | | | - Goal: Modernize and | - Goal: Increase transparency | | revitalise the Soviet economy | and reduce censorship | | | | | - Focus: Economic restructuring | - Focus: | | | | | - Changes: | - Corruption | | | | | - Gave businesses more | - Media freedom | | freedom to make decisions | | | | - Cultural openness | | - Proposed a new market | | | model | - Changes: | | | | | - Outcomes: | - Exposed and aimed to | | | eliminate corruption in | | - Attempted to meet demand | the Communist Party | | for consumer goods | | | | - Allowed media greater | | - Addressed declining | freedom and previously | | agriculture and food | censored topics to be | | shortages | discussed | | | | | - Did not achieve economic | - Enabled exiled writers | | success | and thinkers to return | | | and publish their work | | | | | | - Outcomes: | | | | | | - Led to free media and the | | | free flow of information | | | | | | - Allowed people to speak | | | out against the regime | | | without fear of | | | persecution | | | | | | - Facilitated the | | | democratisation of the | | | Soviet Union | | | | | | - This resulted in changes | | | in the Eastern Bloc, | | | including the fall of | | | communist rulers and the | | | Berlin Wall | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ **Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)**: - Formed to avoid alignment with major power blocs. - Aimed for national independence, sovereignty, security against imperialism and other forms of foreign aggression. - Strengthened post-1991, with significant role by India. - Founded in 1956 by Yugoslavia, India, Indonesia, Egypt, and Ghana. - 2012: NAM had 120 members, comprising 55% of the world's population. - Focus: National independence, sovereignty, security against imperialism, colonialism, neo-colonialism, racism, and other forms of foreign aggression. - Its primary purpose was to ensure: ".*.. the national independence, sovereignty,* - *territorial integrity and security of non-aligned countries in their struggle against imperialism, colonialism, neo-colonialism, racism, all forms of foreign aggression, occupation, domination, interference or hegemony as well as against great power and bloc politics."* -- F. Castro, the Havana Declaration of 1979 -  **Challenges of the UN during Cold War 1946-1991** - Aim to secure peace and security. - The Security council: China, France, Soviet Union, United Kingdom and United States. - Each member of the council had the power to veto decisions of peace and security, rendering the UN powerless in many of conflicts of the Cold War.  - General Assembly allowed all member states to have concerns raised and debated.  - Soviet system incompatible with UN system e.g. Beliefs in worldwide communist revolution, UN attempted to bring countries together, SU saw world in two camps of communism and capitalism.  - George Kennan 1946= argued SU was not serious about participating in UN and only did so to extend its own power.   **Peacekeeping challenges during the Cold War:** - From the outset the UN Security Council had great difficulty in getting unanimous agreement to send peacekeepers to countries and regions that fell within the influence either superpower - The US was anxious to spread or contain leftists and revolutionary movements, whereas the USSR championed the cause of so-called freedom fighters and movements for national liberation - Security Council resolutions to send in peacekeepers into the Korean conflict were never successful because the Soviets abstained - Hence, intervention was in the hands of the Western Allies, with the USA taking lead UN peacekeeping involvement  [Middle East Conflicts:] - In general warring groups in the Middle East were not aligned with the superpowers whose interest were in ensuring stability in this crucial oil-producing region - Most visible location of the UN peacekeeping during the Civil War - Lebanon, 1958: - The UN's peacekeeping force (UNOGIL) was authorised to ensure that there was no illegal infiltration of personnel or supply of arms across the Lebanese borders, mainly from the United Arab Republic - Yemen Observer Mission (UNYOM), 1963: - An attempt to end civil war in Yemen with sides supported by regional rivals Egypt and Saudi Arabia - Arab-Israeli conflict: - The UNs first peacekeeping mission commenced in 1948 in the Middle East - This was to observe and maintain the ceasefire during the 1948 Arab Israeli War - The UN was present in Suez (UNEF II) in 1973 and in the Golan Heights (UNDOF) in 1974 concluding the Yom Kippur War, and Lebanon (UNIFIL) in 1978 following the 1978 South Lebanon conflict - Iran-Iraq, 1980s: - This mission (UNIIMOG) was authorised in the Middle East to supervise the withdrawal of troops to the internationally recognised border between Iraq and Iran after almost eight years of war between the two countries - NATO Members: Initially 12 countries in 1949, now 30 countries. - 1945: End of World War II, US shifts from isolationism to internationalism. - 1947: Truman Doctrine established to contain communism. - 1949: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) formed. - 1950-1953: Korean War, US involvement to stop the spread of communism. - 1961-1973: Vietnam War, further effort to contain communism in Southeast Asia. Key Figures: - Harry S. Truman: US President (1945-1953) initiated the Truman Doctrine. - Dwight D. Eisenhower: US President (1953-1961) promoted policies to strengthen NATO. - John F. Kennedy: US President (1961-1963), increased involvement in Vietnam. - Lyndon B. Johnson: US President (1963-1969), escalated US military presence in Vietnam. - Richard Nixon: US President (1969-1974) began Vietnamization and eventually withdrew US troops from Vietnam. US Troops in Vietnam: Peaked at 549,000 in 1969. **American Century** - American Century: coined by Henry Luce, the idea that America had a responsibility to participate and spread its values in the international community after WWII. - The document outlined the argument for the US to become more involved in the world. It was published in Life Magazine on 17 Feb 1941, before the attack on Pearl Harbour brought America into the war - America dominated the 20th century from 1941 onwards - During the second century of its existence, America became the world's leading economic, military and cultural power - In this remarkably short period of time the country increased its wealth five times over - Yet for nearly half of the century it remained firmly isolationist (except their short term in WWI) - However, this changed drastically in WWII following Japan's attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941. - The brilliant and insightful editor of Time-Life magazine, Henry Luce, first articulated the expression of 'the American Century' in February 1941 - His article called upon the US to directly engage in the conflict in Europe by joining Britain in its fight against Germany and stated that the US must replace Britain as the world leader and completely transform the system of international relations through the global application of 'American principles' **Understanding Henry Luce:** - He called for America to devote itself to becoming the powerhouse from which the ideals of civilisation, justice, truth and charity would spread throughout the world 'and do their mysterious work of lifting the life of mankind from the levels of the beasts to what the Psalmist called a little lower than the angels' - Luce was influenced by his time in China and by Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson, who championed an internationalist view - Thus, he argued that the US was justified and morally obliged to use its military and economic might to promote higher ideals of freedom and democracy around the world - Luces vision of the American Century had important implications for US foreign policy in both the short and long term - His vision paid particular attention to what he called 'an immense American internationalism' - His view was drawn from notions in US foreign policy that had been around for several decades. It was not his creation, but rather a repacking of sentiments already in wide circulation - He believed that Americans were ill-prepared spiritually and practically to face the fact that they were now the most powerful nation on Earth **Understanding the American Century:** - There were many ways we can understand the 'Short American Century' -- view it as US dominance during the several decades following 1945 or examine how 'Americanised' the rest of the world became in these years [Exporting America:] - In the minds of its believers, the American Century promised to offer twin rewards: God and Money - As the agent of Gods will America could profit greatly through its mission to the world - The assumptions underlying expectations of an American Century were quite sure about two things in particular -- history is on our side, and everybody wants to be like us - The cultural impact of the USA, often known as 'Americanisation', can be seen in the influence of US music, television, films, art and fashion, as well as the desire for freedom of speech and other guaranteed rights its citizens enjoy [Economic Dominance: ] - Our understanding of the American Century must also include a brief consideration of US economic influence - In the post war years, many countries adopted Americas economic policies of market forces, despite the objections of their own populations who experienced the severe impact of unfettered capitalism - The US dollar was (and still is) the worlds key currency, trade and investment grew continually, and currency values were stable - International Monetary Fund (IMF): Formed in 1944, US played a key role. [American Imperialism and Pax Americana:] - Part of Americas mission to the world was the imposition of Pax Americana - Not everyone was happy about this - For a short time from the middle of the 20th century, relative peace in the Western world resulted in part from the power the USA wielded - A succession of interventionist US administrations were constantly meddling in the affairs of other states - What they did for Japan and Europe, they failed to do for Latin America - Instead of being an agent of economic revival for its southern neighbours it abandoned its ideals in order to crush nationalism - In short, the US government confused these forces with communism, which was gaining ground across a region it considered to be its own backyard - The stifling of democracy slowed economic development in this area so drastically that entire countries fell under the control of dictatorship and crony capitalism where the few benefited at the expense of many [American Exceptionalism:] - For Henry Luce the attraction of the American Century arose from the conviction that the USA as a great power was somehow different from every other great power in history - "*American exceptionalism represents potential realised, promise fulfilled, and responsibility finally and willingly accepted which could be projected on a global scale. With Americas arrival at the summit of world power, the journey of humanity toward freedom, is destined to end when we all embrace American values*." -- [A. J Bacevich, The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism, 2008] - Another epochal shift in power structures came about with the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, the collapse of communist East Germany and eventually the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991 **Immediate Background:** - 7 October 1989, marked the 40th anniversary of the founding of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) - The country's government planned to celebrate the event with military parades and local fairs - Meanwhile, the opposition ked by the Protestant and Catholic Churches used the opportunity to speak out - Thousands journeyed to the Erlosekirche, a large Protestant church in East Berlin district of Berlin- Lichtenberg - They staged a vigil and demanded free elections be held under UN supervision - Increasingly the authority of the regime was being challenged by these church-led demonstrations, especially one held at the Gethsemane Church in the Prenzlauer Berg district - 7 October: a spontaneous demonstration formed in Alexanderplatz in the centre of East Berlin - It quickly gathered momentum when the crowd moved onto the Palace of the Republic where the government was holding the official state ceremony - Police and 'Stasi civilians' (violent thugs) broke up the demonstration with great violence, arresting approx. 1,200 people - Simultaneously, in the South of Germany regular Monday demonstrations had been taking place in Leipzig - It was feared the government would use the armed forces against the people - The situation eased when police and soldiers withdrew from the churches in Leipzig - In the Gethsemane Church in Berlin the church bells rang out, indicating the government had backed down and was in retreat - Saturday 4 November: Berlin demonstrators in Alexanderplatz called for freedom of the press and assembly **Collapse of Communist rule:** - Meanwhile leading Communist Party members and bureaucrats were resigning en masse - 7 November: the entire government stepped down and on the following day the Politburo resigned - Evening of 9 November 1989: large crowds of East Berliners forced the Berlin Wall to be opened - In the German Bundestag (parliament) of West Germany a short government statement was read, and members rose to sing the German national anthem - At midnight, in East Berlin a meeting was held between Karl-Heinz Wagner and Colonel Hans- Joachim Kruger from the Ministry of State Security - Both men abandoned their commitment to socialism - The days of the East German leader, Erich Honecker and the head of security, Erich Mielke were numbered - The national phase of the 'peaceful' revolution began on 9 November and led to the reunification of Germany on 3 October 1990 - Ultimately, the people of East Berlin and the GDR triumphed over the dictatorship imposed by the governing party of East Germany from 1949 until the elections of 1990 **Significance of the fall of the Berlin Wall:** - The division in 1945 became the centrepiece of ideological tension and conflict between the Soviet Union and the West - The Berlin Wall brought the conflict between the East and West to a head, almost to the point of war - During its 40-year history, the GDR failed to achieve internal legitimacy (popular support), its citizens measuring their predicament against their neighbour to the west - To secure its rule, the leadership if the SED (Socialist Unity Party of Germany) relied on two contestants: the 'Soviet guarantee of existence' and the Berlin Wall - A brutal regime, it never held free elections ab used intimidation and violence to exert control - In 1961, it was obliged to build a wall to prevent the mass exodus of its citizens, thereby dividing East and West Berlin, as well as the entire country - The ever-present threat of Soviet intervention and the Berlin Wall demonstrated the weakness of the SED rather than its strength - Under Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev it was evident that Moscow had abandoned the Brezhnev Doctrine and would not intervene military on behalf of the GDR - Unlike Hungary and Poland, the leadership of the GDR refused to introduce domestic reforms as a way out of crisis because its identity as a socialist state would have never existed alongside a capitalist Federal Republic in the West Focus of study The collapse of the USSR and the nature of post-Soviet societies, including: - reasons for the collapse of the Soviet Union and the role of Mikhail Gorbachev (ACHMH190, ACHMH192)     - The collapse of the USSR in December 1991, its dissolution and the formation of successor states that emerged after the 70-year rule of communism occurred just two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall - The end was a long time in the making: many observers insider and outside the country sensed that it was no longer possible to maintain the status quo following the death of Leonid Brezhnev and the renewed Cold War that erupted between his successors and US President Ronald Reagan - There are many reasons for the collapse and the preceding crises, most of which were caused by the failure of central planning and the denial of free-market economic forces - Perhaps the command and control policies dictated by Soviet planners had been a disaster all along and were destined to fail - Locked into an ideology that disallowed free elections, pluralism and a more open economy, the Soviet regime collapsed from within dye to its own contradictions **Military and Arms Race:** - Some believe that US President Ronald Reagan's 'Star Wars' dream of a missile-defence shield hastened the end of the Soviet Union - Despite the fact that it was never fully realised, the USA's superior technology threatened the Kremlin with a new, unaffordable arms race. - The new arms race effectively sent the USSR broke **Failure of a centrally planned economy:** - A centrally planned economy worked when progress was marked in tonnes of steel or cement, or tanks and rockets, but Soviet factories produced goods no one wanted - Meanwhile, shops were empty of daily necessities and household items, from fresh meat to fridges - It was not possible to go on producing goods worth less in real terms than the materials used to make them - Shortages created a crime-ridden black economy, worth at least 30% of the real economy o Despite the advanced state of its research capabilities and great advances in the sciences, the USSR struggled to adapt to the information age and the microchip - By the late 1980s the USA and the West were the clear leaders **Financial burden of Soviet satellites:** - The USSRs trading bloc, the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (Cimecon), paid out massive subsidies in worthless soft currencies - The money was used to prop up seven European satellites, as well as Mongolia, Cuba and eventually Vietnam **Foreign Wars:** - Imperial overstretch (the expense of financing guerrilla movements in Africa, Asia and Latin America, and supporting cash-strapped and unloved regimes from Angola to Afghanistan) became too much for the USSR **Failure of the Brezhnev Doctrine:** - President Leonid Brezhnev and the communist Party believed that the USSR would emerge victorious in the Cold War if it continued building up its arsenal and giving aid to 'progressive' regimes in the Third World, such as Angola, Ethiopia and especially Afghanistan - President Gorbachev abandoned this doctrine of interference, which was starkly illustrated in his refusal to allow Soviet troops stationed in East Germany to supress popular discontent **Collapse in World oil prices:** - 13 September 1985, Saudi Arabia stopped subsidising oil prices, so that it quickly regained a dominant share in the world market - By March 1986, the country's oil production increased fourfold, although oil process collapsed by about the same amount in real terms - As an oil producer the USSR was hit hard by the price fall, losing about \$20 billion per year in foreign earnings - Without this income the country simply could not survive - In the circumstances the Soviet leadership had three options- or a combination of three options: 1. Dissolve the Eastern European empire and end barter trade in oil and gas with the socialist bloc countries, and start charging hard currency for the hydrocarbons a. This was rejected 2. Drastically reduce Soviet food imports by \$20 billion, the amount the USSR lost when oil prices collapsed. This would have met the introduction of food rationing at rates similar to those used during WWII b. This idea was never seriously discussed 3. Make radical funding cuts to the military-industrial complex. This risked serious conflict with regional and industrial elites, because a large number of Soviet cities depended solely on the military-industrial complex c. This choice was also never seriously discussed - None of the above were acceptable - Hoping that the problem would disappear, the USSR failed to implement reforms. Instead they took out foreign loans and relied on the country's creditworthiness in international banking circles - From 1985-88 the USSR borrowed heavily but this failed to prevent the economic collapse in 1989 - In 1989 the USSR tried to create a consortium of 300 local and overseas banks to provide a large loan to the country. - It was informed that only 5 of them would participate and, as a result, the loan would be 20x smaller than needed - The countries leader then received a final warning from the Deutsche Bank and from its international partners that the funds would never come from commercial sources - Instead, if the Soviet Union urgently needed the money, it would have to start negotiations directly with Western governments about the so-called politically motivated credits **The role of Mikhail Gorbachev:** - The collapse of the USSR came in three broad stages during the presidency of Mikhail Gorbachev **Gorbachev abandons the Brezhnev Doctrine:** - When he came to office in March 1985, he was determined to scrap old assumptions about Soviet foreign policy - He drew lessons from renewed Cold War tensions in the early 1980s and was determined to free the USSR from a costly arms race that was progressively bankrupting the country - Without hesitation Gorbachev abandoned the Brezhnev Doctrine, which soon became evident in Soviet foreign policy - One major problem was the long-running intervention in Afghanistan - On 14 April 1988 Pakistan, Afghanistan, the USA and the USSR signed an agreement known as the Geneva Accords - This agreed on a complete and orderly withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan by 15 February 1989 - This step towards conciliation with the West was also meant to reassure the Eastern Europeans although it had the effect of encouraging others to challenge Soviet power **Peaceful revolutions in Eastern and Central Europe:** - In late 1989 peaceful revolutions in Eastern and Central Europe (except Romania) were the prelude to the disintegration of the USSRs hold over the autonomous republics in Soviet Central Asia - In June 1989 Poland held free elections and its people voted the communists out of government - Soon after, Gorbachev announced that his country would not interfere with the internal affairs of the Eastern European countries - By October, Hungary and Czechoslovakia had followed Poland's example - On 9 Nov 1989 the government of East Germany opened the Berlin Wall - 'In Poland communism took ten years, in Hungary ten months, in East Germany ten weeks, and in Czechoslovakia ten days to disappear' -- historian T.G Ash - The Western alliance continued to strengthen in the face of the collapse of the Warsaw Pact in 1990 and the 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe - Both these events substantially reduced Soviet superiority in conventional forces in Europe, which enabled the US to redeploy forces from Europe to the Persian Gulf for use against Iraq **Dissolution of the USSR:** - The final stage of collapse was the dissolution of the USSR in 1991 - Both the peaceful revolutions of 1989 and the dissolution of the USSR signalled the end of the Cold War - With the centre disintegrating, Gorbachev opened up the political process through glasnost (openness) - Yet, by 1989 his domestic reforms had more or less failed and the economy was facing collapse - Old-guard communist bosses in the republics rebranded themselves as nationalists and attacked the Moscow government which subsequently destroyed the USSR - As the countries on Soviet Central Asia began to throw off Russian domination, the breakaway of Soviet republics in Eastern Europe which sought sovereignty and then independence was achieved **Nationalist demands in the Baltic states:** - It was only a matter of time before dissent spread to the non-Russian areas in the Baltic region- Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia -- which had significant Russian minorities - In 1989, the government of Estonia demanded autonomy, followed by Lithuania and Latvia § Nationalist movements in these republics took advantage of Gorbachev's policy of glasnost - He was anxious to avoid conflict but knew independence would surely follow if the Baltic states were allowed to go their own ways **Nationalist demands in other Soviet republics:** - Nationalist demands increased in the south of the USSR - This included the Transcaucasia region which included the Armenian-populated autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh in the republic of Azerbaijan - This small Armenian enclave demanded the right to secede and join the Republic of Armenia with its similar ethnically linked population - Huge demonstrations were held in Armenia in solidarity with breakaway Nagorno- Karabakh - When Gorbachev's government stalled, violence broke out resulting in an all-out war which still festers today - The end was near when nationalist movements ignited in Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and the Central Asian republics - Later Ukraine party leader Leonid Kravchuk was asked when he decided to secede from the USSR -- he replied with "in 1989" **Role of President George HW Bush:** - Following his inauguration in January 1989, he ordered a strategic policy re-evaluation in order to establish his own plan and methods for dealing with the USSR and arms control (rather than following President Reagan's policies) - Gorbachev's decision to loosen the Soviet grip on Eastern Europe created a momentum that was both independent and democratic - While Bush supported the independence movements, he had a high regard for Gorbachev, letting events unfold organically, and was careful not to do anything to worsen Gorbachev's position - As the autonomous republics declared independence or sovereignty, they addressed the issue of service in the armed forces, including the creation of their own military forces **Bush and Gorbachev meet:** - They met in December 1989, in Malta - The two leaders laid the groundwork to finalise START negotiations, finalised the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty and discussed the rapid changes in Eastern Europe - Bush encouraged Gorbachev in his reform efforts in the hope that he would succeed in shifting the USSR toward a democratic system and a market-orientated economy - Gorbachev went ahead with elections for a multiparty system which started a slow process of democratisation that destabilised communist control and helped to bring about the collapse of the USSR - After the May 1990 elections Gorbachev faced conflicting internal political pressure from the likes of Boris Yeltsin and movements for democratic change and rapid economic reforms - Meanwhile, the hard-line communist élite worked to undermine Gorbachev's reform agenda **US policy direction:** - The rapid disintegration of the USSR alarmed foreign governments in the West, particularly the USA o US officials in the administration of President George HW Bush prepared contingency plans to prevent nuclear catastrophe through the theft of, or loss of control over, the Soviet nuclear stockpile - They weighed the possibility of ethnic violence and considered plans for the stable transition to democratic rule - On 4 September 1991: Secretary of State, James Baker announced five basic principles that would guide US policy toward the emerging republics: Self-determination consistent with democratic principles - The recognition of existing borders - Support for democracy and the rule of law - The preservation of human rights and rights of national minorities o Respect for international law and obligations - The US hoped for cooperation and assistance - Baker met with Gorbachev and Yeltsin in a bid to shore up the economic situation and develop transition plans for economic cooperation between the former eastern bloc countries and Russia - They also looked to find ways of allowing political reforms to occur in a regulated and peaceful manner **The 'August Days', 1991:** - In Moscow the situation came to a head in August of 1991 when hard-line communists organised a coup d'état, hoping to remove Gorbachev and his government - They kidnapped Gorbachev while he was absent from Moscow in Crimea and on 19 August, they announced on state television that the president was too ill to continue to govern - Massive protests (the august days) were staged in Moscow, Leningrad and other major cities - It was the conspirers' attempt to use the military to end these protests that led to mutiny - After 3 days of protests, the coup organisers surrendered and were arrested - The government, the Communist Party and the people knew that nothing less than democracy was now acceptable - Knowing he had lost support, Gorbachev was also deeply compromised by one of his most outspoken critics, Boris Yeltsin - Power slipped from the hands of Gorbachev, who was by now a president by name only **Formation of the CIS:** - By early December 1991 Yeltsin and the leaders of Ukraine and Belarus met in Brest to form the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) - By this time, all individual Soviet republics, including Russia, had seceded from the union - The leaders of 11 of the republics signed the document, acknowledging the independence of the former Soviet republics - 5 of the signatories ratified it much later or did not do so at all - While the member countries had complete political independence, they were linked to other Commonwealth countries by economic, and in some cases military ties - 25 December: Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev resigned, declaring his office extinct - Its powers were handed over to the Russian President -- Boris Yeltsin, including control over the Soviet nuclear missile launching codes - At 7.32 om the Soviet flag was lowered from the Kremlin for the last time and replaced with the pre-revolutionary Russian flag - The USSR was dissolved on 26 December 1991 following the declaration number 142-H (the Alma-Ata Protocol) of the Soviet of the Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union - The final date for dissolution was 31 December 1991 when the USSR officially ceased to exist - This momentous event changed the worlds geopolitical balance and put an end to a superpower with resources that were the equal to more than a dozen countries combined - Russia was one of the main inhibitors of the break-up of the USSR - President Gorbachev's struggle with the old imperial élite in the Communist Party, the armed forces and the military-industrial complex culminated in the August 1991 coup - When this failed, the USSR collapsed, ending the political career and authority of Gorbachev himself - In the aftermath Russia, the largest of the successor states, has been unable to wield global power and influence on the same extent as did the Soviet Union throughout its 75-year history **Explanations of Soviet dissolution in histography:** Histography of the Soviet dissolution can be roughly classified into two groups: +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | Intentionalist accounts | Structuralist accounts | +===================================+===================================+ | - These claim the Soviet | - Structuralists accounts claim | | collapse was not inevitable | the soviet dissolution was | | and was in fact due to the | the result of deeply rooted | | polices and decisions of | structural issues i.e. A | | Gorbachev and Yeltsin | 'time bomb' that was always | | | going to explode when | | - Historian A. Browns 'The | nationalities exercised their | | Gorbachev Factor' argues that | right to secede | | Gorbachev was the main force | | | in Soviet politics in the | - On 25 Jan 2016 Russian | | period from 1985 to 88 and he | President Vladimir Putin | | later led the political | supported this view, | | reforms and developments, | calling Lenin's support | | especially the policies of | of the right of secession | | perestroika and glasnost, | for the Soviet Republics | | market initiatives and | a 'delayed-action bomb' | | foreign policy | | | | - Policies towards a national | | - David Kotz and Fred Weir | minorities form part of | | believe Soviet elites | structuralist accounts | | encouraged nationalism and | | | capitalism, which could | - Historian S. Walker has | | benefit them personally | argued that minority | | | nationalities were: | | - There is much evidence | | | that nationalism in | - Denied power with the | | particular is strongly | union of states that | | encouraged by the Putin | formed the USSR | | administration in order | | | to further his political | - Seriously | | ambitions | disadvantaged by | | | economic | | | modernisation that | | | destabilised their | | | cultures | | | | | | - Forced to accept | | | policies of | | | 'Russification' | | | | | | - At the same time national | | | minorities were strengthened | | | by various policies pursued | | | by the Soviet regime, such as | | | indigenisation of leadership | | | and the support for local | | | languages | | | | | | - Over time this created | | | people conscious of their | | | own nationhood | | | | | | - Thus, the basic myths of USSR | | | federal system -- that is was | | | a voluntary and mutual union | | | of allied peoples- eased the | | | task of secession and | | | independence | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+  [Sources: ] - *"It was Gorbachev's reforms that pushed the system into revolutionary crisis, not a crisis in the system that brought about the reforms" -- **Orlando Figes*** - *"In Poland communism took ten years, in Hungary 10 months, East Germany 10 weeks and in Czechoslovakia 10 days to disappear." -- **Timothy Garton Ash*** - *'In Poland communism took ten years, in Hungary ten months, in East Germany ten weeks, and in Czechoslovakia ten days to disappear' -- **historian T.G Ash*** - political, social and cultural impacts of the dissolution of the USSR in Russia and Eastern Europe (ACHMH190)       +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | **Russia** | | +===================================+===================================+ | Political | - Boris Yeltsin was responsible | | | for implementing a series of | | | political and economic | | | reforms that transformed | | | Russia into a democratic | | | state with a capitalist | | | economy | | | | | | - Russia underwent a mass | | | privatisation of their | | | assets, industry and | | | infrastructure, oil and gas | | | reserves, banks etc. | | | | | | - Rise of oligarchy | | | | | | - In the end of communism, a | | | power vacuum had been | | | created, the new government | | | had to move fast to design | | | new constitutions and | | | economic structures | | | | | | - Change occurred in three | | | phases: | | | | | | 1. Yeltsin and economic | | | shock therapy 1991-2 | | | | | | 2. Privatisation and the | | | rise of the oligarchs | | | 1993-5 | | | | | | 3. The Russian financial | | | crisis 1998 | | | | | | - Yeltsin and economic shock | | | therapy: | | | | | | | | | | | | - He appeared before parliament | | | to present his program of | | | reforms. The plan, which was | | | known as shock therapy, | | | included massive cuts to the | | | government spending that | | | targeted defence, industry | | | subsidies, consumer subsidies | | | and public infrastructure, | | | reducing the government | | | deficit, the introduction of | | | new taxes, attempts to | | | control inflation and the | | | removal of government | | | restrictions from prices | | | | | | - Not everyone shared Yeltsin's | | | faith in the reforms | | | | | | - He characterised the reforms | | | as brutal but necessary | | | | | | - Russia was facing price rises | | | up to 20x higher than before | | | the reforms | | | | | | | | | | | | - The Russian economy was on | | | the brink of collapse, the | | | Rouble was extremely devalued | | | | | | - Russian Flu (1998) | | | | | | - Yeltsin resigned power in | | | 1999 due to his declining | | | chronic alcoholism | | | | | | | | | | | | - Russian mafia filled the | | | leadership void | | | | | | - Massive demonstrations region | | | wide | | | | | | | | | | | | - Emergence of young | | | democracies | | | | | | - Development of nationalism in | | | Europe -- many Eastern | | | European countries were keen | | | to assert their independence | | | and national identities in | | | the post- Cold War world | | | | | | - Promotion of liberalism -- | | | less governmental control | | | over private lives | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | Social | - Hyperinflation meant Russians | | | turned to the black market | | | for clothes, food and | | | essentials | | | | | | - Pro-democracy demonstrators | | | who feared they could lose | | | their democracy, staged | | | massive demonstrations | | | | | | - By 1998, 74 million people | | | lived below the poverty line, | | | in comparison to 2 million in | | | | | | - 1989, the consumption of | | | alcohol had doubled | | | | | | - Increase in drug and alcohol | | | abuse (due to increasing | | | westernised activities) | | | | | | - Increase in deaths by suicide | | | | | | - Increase in poverty (due to | | | Russia's very poor financial | | | situation and lack of the | | | Rouble | | | | | | earning much | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | Cultural | - By the end of 1995, the | | | Russian people were tired of | | | instability and reforms, and | | | the Communist Party | | | re-emerged as a political | | | force with 22% of the vote in | | | the December 1995 elections | | | | | | - Stalin was voted 3rd best | | | Russian in 2008 International | | | sport | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | **Poland** | | +===================================+===================================+ | Political | - Longer period of protests and | | | negotiations | | | | | | - A democratic parliament was | | | formed | | | | | | - The Polish economy was | | | destitute, unemployment was | | | high -- the first item on the | | | democratic agenda was to | | | solve these issues | | | | | | - Solidarity became ruling | | | party; painful but rapid | | | transition to functioning | | | market economy | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | Social | - Confidence in the Communist | | | party had collapsed | | | | | | - Rise in tourism | | | | | | - Increase in living conditions | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | Cultural | - International sport | | | | | | - Rediscovery of identity | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | **Czechoslovakia** | | +===================================+===================================+ | Political | - Enjoyed a peaceful transition | | | from Communism in the 'Velvet | | | Revolution' | | | | | | - Political dissidents were | | | punished as the repressive | | | regime tried to hold on to | | | power. | | | | | | - This repression included | | | strict control on the | | | press, purges of | | | communist party reformers | | | and punishment of | | | political activists | | | | | | - State sponsored violence at | | | the end of the Communist | | | regime | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | Social | - Rise in tourism | | | | | | - Increase in living conditions | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | Cultural | - International sport | | | | | | - Rediscovery of identity | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | **Romania** | | +===================================+===================================+ | Political | - Hard-line | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | Social | - Rise in tourism | | | | | | - Increase in living conditions | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | Cultural | - International sport | | | | | | - Rediscovery of identity | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ --  nature and role of the Russian Federation under Vladimir Putin to 2011 **Early Career:** - Born 1952 - Graduated law at Saint Petersburg State University in 1975 - Joined the KGB and remained in the organisation for 16 years, rising to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel - Retried from the KGB in 1991 and entered politics in Saint Petersburg - 25 July 1998 Boris Yeltsin appointed Putin as the director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), the primary intelligence and security organisation of the Russian Federation and the KGBs successor - He held that position until 9 August **Political Office:** - 1999-2000 Putin was acting President and succeeded Boris Yeltsin when his mentor was forced to step down due to ill health brought in by chronic alcoholism - His first act was to pass legislation making Yeltsin and his family immune from criminal charges that may arise from the privatisation.  - Putin showed his Cold War credentials when he famously admitted: The collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the 20th century". - Vladimir Putin has served 3 terms as President of Russia: - 2000-2004 - 2004-2008 - 2012-present - His rule has been variously described as autocratic, oligarchic and corrupt. Western observers argue that he has unparalleled control over the institutions of the state.  - Putin served two successive terms from 2000-2008.  Controversially, he also served as Medvedev's Prime Minister from 2008-2012 (period of tandemocracy) - As PM Putin pushed through new term limits and contested the 2012 election.  - He was well liked in Russia with an 80 % approval rating. - The 2020 constitutional amendment gave him legal authority to stay in office until 2036. **Liberal Economic Reforms:** - In 1993, there were 89 'federal subjects of Russia' which were given equal status under the constitution. - Putin grouped them into several regional areas. - In July 2000, Putin was given a right to dismiss the head of each federal subject. - In 2004 the elections of federal subjects were replaced with Presidential appointment - When Putin came to office, Russia was emerging from the disastrous market reforms of the 1990s and the 1998 financial crisis - Over 60% of Russia's industrial turnover was based on barter and various momentary substitutes - This is now a thing of the past -- Putin's policies have raised wages and consumption, earning him praise from many quarters 1. In his first two terms as president, Putin signed into law liberal economic reforms, such as a flat income tax of 13%, reduced profits tax, and new land and civil codes a. He also promulgated new codes on labour, administrative, criminal, commercial and civil procedural aw 2. During the presidency of Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's government made key reforms in state security, the police and the military 3. From 2000-2008 poverty in Russia fell by more than half and was accompanied by a rapid growth in GDP - This can be attributed partly to prior events, including the sharp devaluation of the rouble in 1998; structural reforms undertaken during the Boris Yeltsin era; rising oil prices; and cheap credit advanced by Western banks **'National Champions':** - One of Putin's main ideas in economics was the creation of 'National Champions' - These were vertically integrated companies in strategic sectors of the Russian economy - Their brief is to make profits but also be flagbearers for the national interest - E.g. huge companies such as Gazprom, Rosneft and United Aircraft Corporation - These entities are controlled by members of Putin's inner circle **The oligarchs:** - These are business magnates who have reaped the benefit of privatisation of previously state-funded enterprises - A small clique of businessmen had made large monetary gains during Boris Yeltsin's tenure as president after listing the enterprises on the Russian stock market - Many of these men also held ambitions of political power, which Putin ensured where stamped out during his first term in office - Some oligarchs were exiled, some imprisoned; and others under pressure, changed their allegiance to Putin in return for sharing their wealth and business holdings - Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former CEO of Yukos oil became a political opponent of Putin. In 2003 he was arrested and given a sentence of 10 years. Pardoned in 2013.  - Boris Brezovsky: lived in exile in UK and was found dead (inconclusive) in his home in 2013. **A personality cult?** - The Yeltsin presidency was a humiliation for Russia - With his drunkenness, antics and illnesses Yeltsin was the complete opposite of Putin, who continues to appeal to the macho spirit and intense nationalism of many Russians - Putin's brand of leadership and the adulation he attracts at home have coined the expression 'Putinism' to describe his leadership - The Putin regime has at least restored natural functions of government which had been usurped during the Yeltsin era by oligopolies who ran the country according to their own narrow interests - September 2007: US economist R. Rahn called Putinism: - "\... a Russian nationalistic authoritarian form of government that pretends to be a free market democracy, and which owes more of its lineage to fascism than communism. Putinism depended on the Russian economy growing rapidly enough that mist people had rising standards of living, and in exchange, were willing to put up with the existing soft repression. As Russia's economic fortunes changed, Putinism was likely to become more repressive." - Following these remarks, Putin took actions to lessen democracy, promote conservative beliefs and values, and silence opposition to his policies and administration - The political system under Putin includes elements of economic liberalism, however, lacks transparency in governance and tolerates cronyism, nepotism and widespread corruption - Boris Nemtsov, who was assassinated in February 2015 for his political opposition to Putin, claimed in 2007 that there was systematic nepotism and corruption in Putin's Russia **Organised crime:** - Putin took on organised crime and terrorism, which has been effective, although his political opponents believe that Putin himself is involved in crime through nepotism, using stater resources to enrich himself, the imprisonment of political opponents and complicity in the murder of investigative journalists - **Anna Stepanovna Politkovskaya**: Russian investigative journalist known for her reporting on political and social events, particularly the Second Chechen War. Her work brought her national and international recognition. - **Alexander Valterovich Litvinenko**: British-naturalised Russian defector and former officer of the Russian Federal Security Service. Specialized in tackling organized crime and was a prominent critic of President Vladimir Putin. Coined the term \"mafia state\" and died from polonium-210 poisoning, with investigations attributing his murder to Russian government agents acting on Putin\'s behalf. **Significant Events** - **Sinking of the Kursk (August 2000)**: A Russian submarine sank following an explosion that registered 4.2 on the Richter scale. Criticism arose due to Putin\'s slow response and refusal of international help, which was a blow to the Russian military's pride as all aboard were killed. - **Dubrovka Theatre Siege (October 2002)**: 130 people were killed during a botched rescue mission after 50 Chechen rebels took hostages. The Russian government faced accusations of a cover-up and heavy-handed tactics. - **Beslan School Hostage Crisis (September 2004)**: 385 people, including 200 children, were killed after Chechen rebels took a school hostage**.** **Foreign Policy** - **Putin Doctrine**: Focused on recovering the economic, political, and strategic assets lost by the Soviet state in 1991. - **Putin's Policies**: - Echoes the grandeur, belligerence, and expansionism of the Soviet Union. - Yeltsin cooperated with NATO, but Putin heavily criticized NATO's encroachment into Eastern Europe. - Putin went to war against Georgia and Ukraine to prevent them from joining NATO, garnering support from many Russians, especially in former southern republics like Dagestan. - The unconvincing victory in Georgia led to reforms in the conscript-based army. - The biggest issue was the war in Chechnya, which declared independence. - Putin's foreign policy has echoes of the former grandeur, belligerence and expansionism of the Soviet - **Union** - Putin accused NATO of expanding eastward - He has the backing and support of many Russians who also supported his intervention in Georgia and the former southern republics, many of which are now breeding grounds for radical Islam and Jihadism. - However, the troubles in Georgia showed that Putin had inherited and army that was not fit for purpose, and it won an unconvincing victory - During his second term in office, he reformed the conscript0based army, a process that has quickened in recent years - **Autocratic style:** - He has consistently moved toward greater consolidation of his own power - In 2004, he signed a law allowing the president to appoint regional governors 'opposition has grown but been met with the suppression of street demonstrations and the assassination of political opponents and journalists - Establishing a link between these deaths and Putin is near impossible - Critics within Russia and abroad believe that Putin's rule has seen the destruction of free media, threats to civil society, rampant corruption and the corruption of justice The influence of the USA internationally 1991--2011, including: - The USA has been present on the world stage continuously since the end of WWII - Democratic President Bill Clinton was in office 1994-2000 - Republican President George W Bush was in office 2000-2008 - Democratic President Barrack Obama was in office 2008-2016 - Regardless of the political party in office at the time, the US has chosen to exercise its power overseas using both 'soft' and 'hard' power - Before the fall of the Berlin Wall, the role of an interventionalist America was being questioned - 1984, Caspar Weinberger (Secretary of Defence in the administration of President Ronald Reagan) formulated what became known as the Weinberger Doctrine - He suggested that 6 tests ought to be passed before US troops were sent to overseas conflicts: 1. The US should not commit forces to combat overseas unless the particular engagement or occasion was deemed vital to its national interest 2. The commitment should only be made with the clear intention of winning 3. It should be carried out with clearly defined political and military objectives 4. It must be continually reassessed and adjusted where necessary 5. It should have the support of the American people and their elected representatives in Congress 6. Military action should be a last resort - Weinberger strongly believed the outcome of the Vietnam War would have been vastly different if these tests had been applied - Senior military officers including Colin Powell quickly embraced the doctrine -- and he would later serve as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from 1989 -- 93 **Post- Cold War influence:** - US foreign policy in the post- Cold War period has been strongly influenced by the need to: - Preserve Americas global control and influence - Support liberal international economic organisations that further expand globalisation - Promote and expand the 'zone of democratic peace' - Use military power to ease humanitarian disasters - Isolate and punish 'rogue states' that threaten regional stability and American security - Protect the US from attacks by the aforementioned regimes as well as from the transnational terrorist groups **Foreign policy after 9/11:** - Following the attack on 9/11 in 2001 American foreign policy became strongly interventionist o The USA and its major ally, Britain, invaded Iraq - an action which led to unforeseen consequences - Civil War engulfed the state as Shi'a and Sunni Muslims fought to protect their communities and their social, political and economic rights - There were also unintended consequences of the 'Arab spring', which failed to bring about democratic change across the Middle East - The regime of Colonel Muammar Ghaddafi collapsed; unrest and insurgency broke out in neighbouring countries and in Egypt the elected short-lived strongly Islamic government was toppled by the military - To the north in Syria challenges to the Assad regime quickly progressed to a full-scale civil war and the disintegration of the state - The Islamic movement ISIS took advantage of the chaos and established a 'caliphate', which has only recently been defeated **The use of 'Soft Power':** - Joseph Nye (Harvard University) coined the term 'soft power' in his 1990 book, 'Bound to Lead: The Changing Nature of American Power' - The term describes the ability to influence society, public opinion and the polices of governments by peaceful means rather than by force or by offering financial inducements or penalties - It can be exercised by lobbying through powerful political and no-political organisations, through diplomacy, strategic communications, foreign assistance, civic action, and economic reconstruction and development - An example of soft power is during the Cold War -- the two superpowers (USSR and Russia) wielding non-military influence - The US is not the only region that exercises 'soft power'; China is equally ambitious in communicating to the world its self-belief as a socialist cultural superpower - Others include France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Australia, Sweden and the Netherlands - Soft power refers to the idea of being able to attract states towards sharing your interests and values. - The main categories under which soft power can be measured are: - The attractiveness of a culture, including education, technology and entertainment - The virtue of political values - Exercising a fair foreign policy - The most effective instruments of soft power are education and technology - The second pillar of soft power is political values. These are most pointedly expressed during a time of great need, such as a humanitarian crisis resulting from famine, earthquake or flood. - America's financial contribution to humanitarian aid is an example of soft power - The third pillar is the use of foreign policy in the ways that are fair, moral and legitimate. The classic example of this is the Marshall Plan -- the USA spend \$15 billion to help the European recovery after WWII **The use of 'hard power':** - The willingness to use military force rather than diplomacy to achieve international foreign policy aims - The Bush administration's use of pre-emptive strikes is one of hard power. The reasoning behind this is that it is better to deal with an enemy while they are still weak, and before they emerge as a real threat - Economic sanctions may be regarded as an expression of hard power because they coerce nations to act in line with international norms by restricting trade and stopping supplies [The global 'war on terror': ] - Type of hard power - The most significant shift in American foreign policy was association with the 'global war on terror' after the 9/11 attacks - The USA thereafter used a combination of covert and overt military operations to chase those responsible for the attacks -- particularly Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network - President George W Bush's address in the aftermath of 9/11 was directed towards the Taliban government of Afghanistan, which he accused of harbouring al-Qaeda leaders and allowing terrorism training camps to operate in the country - As part of the 'war on terror', the USA went to war against Afghanistan in October 2001 and against Iraq in March 2003. These conflicts were highly ineffective as a wave of sectarian violence and political unrest filled the power vacuum left by the removal of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. - Another factor in the 'war on terror' was the use by the SA of tactics that were largely outside the internationally accepted rule of law. This included interrogation methods such as waterboarding that bordered on torture in military prisons such as Guantanamo Bay in Cuba --  supporters and opponents of US foreign policy, focusing on Europe, Asia and the Middle East **Europe:** +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ | **NATO's role in European | - NATO grew out of Americas | | crises:** | post-war Marshall Plan that | | | helped to rebuild war-torn | | | Europe, creating stable and | | | secure political and economic | | | conditions for growth | | | | | | - The original 12 members | | | have since more than | | | doubled to 28 nations | | | | | | - The US has had a forward | | | military presence in | | | Europe dating back to the | | | end of WWII, maintaining | | | garrisons and air bases | | | with the support of many | | | European governments who | | | are also members of NATO | | | | | | - NATO is the largest and most | | | powerful military alliance in | | | history | | | | | | - Its core principle was | | | mutual defence against a | | | possible invasion of its | | | members by Russia, its | | | traditional enemy | | | | | | - Since the collapse of | | | communism this is no | | | longer the case, | | | although there are | | | renewed fears that | | | three strategic | | | Baltic states and | | | former Soviet | | | republics -- Latvia, | | | Lithuania and Estonia | | | -- are at risk from | | | Russian intervention | | | | | | - At the urging of | | | the USA, NATO has | | | expanded into | | | central and | | | Eastern Europe, | | | angering Russia | | | | | | - NATOs existence has kept the | | | peace in Europe and bound | | | together the USA, Canada and | | | European allies, largely | | | keeping a stable world order | | | | | | - NATOs areas of engagement | | | have included: | | | | | | - Bosnia and Herzegovina -- | | | in 1995, 60,000 NATO | | | troops were deployed in | | | the Balkans | | | | | | - Kosovo -- in 1999 NATO | | | ended the humanitarian | | | crisis and stabilised the | | | security situation | | | | | | - Today NATO troops | | | remain in Kosovo due | | | to the fragile | | | security situation | +===================================+===================================+ | **Russia and the US:** | - The relationship between the | | | two superpowers was warm | | | during the Boris Yeltsin's | | | term of office, until the | | | NATO bombing of the Federal | | | Republic of Yugoslavia early | | | 1999 | | | | | | - It has deteriorated | | | significantly under Putin | | | | | | - George W Bush and | | | Putin began to have | | | serious disagreements | | | as Russia became more | | | assertive in | | | international affairs | | | | | | - Major disagreements include: | | | | | | - 9/11 | | | | | | - the foreign policy of | | | the administration of | | | George W Bush put US | | | interests first | | | | | | - Peaceful revolutions in | | | Georgia and Ukraine | | | | | | - Putin blamed the US | | | for encouraging | | | anti-Russian revolts | | | during the Rose | | | Revolution in Georgia | | | in 2003 and the | | | Orange Revolution in | | | Ukraine in 2004 | | | | | | - Missiles in Europe | | | | | | - In 2002 the US | | | withdrew from the | | | Anti-Ballistic | | | Missile Treaty and | | | announced that it | | | would build a | | | missile-defence | | | system in Europe | | | | | | - Putin called this | | | a mistake | | | | | | - Iraq, 2003 | | | | | | - Russia strongly | | | opposed the 2003 | | | invasion of Iraq but | | | did not use its veto | | | in the United Nations | | | Security Council | | | | | | - NATO expansion in Europe | | | | | | - angered Russia -- as | | | they regard the | | | former eastern bloc | | | their territory | | | | | | - Central Asia | | | | | | - Russia is angered by | | | US efforts to gain | | | access to Central | | | Asian oil and natural | | | gas, regarding it as | | | a potentially hostile | | | encroachment on its | | | sphere of influence | +-----------------------------------+-----------------------------------+ **Asia:** - The US has forces deployed in the Asia-Pacific region, including powerful aircraft-carrier task forces - Its regional commanders lead American forces but also have the authority to initiate direct diplomatic contacts with foreign governments - In recent years, China has challenged post- Cold War world order and wields influence over countries throughout the region - NATO also plays a role in Afghanistan - After 9/11 NATO committed thousands of troops to support the US military in order to stabilise Afghanistan, train Afghani forces and ensure that Afghanistan does not revert to a terrorist safe haven - NATO peaked in 2010/2011 with 140,000 troops in Afghanistan § US and NATO involvement has had mixed results [Development of China before/ after 2003:] - The emergence of China as a world economic power is set to eclipse America - Its rise has been meteoric yet peaceful - The concept of peaceful rise was formulated by Chinese leaders in the early 1990s - Relations between the US administrations and China have been generally friendly and cooperative, especially over trade and development - However, in recent years China has been strongly assertive in its claims over disputed islands in the South China Sea - For the time being relations with Taiwan have been peaceful - President Clintons attempt to link Chinas status as a most favoured nation or privileged trade partner to improve human rights in that country failed - Washington generally regards China as a responsible stakeholder, although the election of Donald Trump to US presidency in 2016 has stretched Sino-US friendship **The Middle East:** [Persian Gulf War] - In 1991, Saddam Hussein launched a surprise attack on Kuwait, a neighbouring country that had previously extended loans to Iraq during its war with Iran. - Unhappy with the terms of repayment and reviving territorial claims, Saddam's forces occupied Kuwait, an oil-rich state. - President George HW Bush organized a coalition of allied and Middle Eastern powers, successfully pushing back the invading forces. - The coalition stopped short of invading Iraq and capturing Hussein, allowing him to remain in power for another 12 years and exact revenge on rebellious Kurds. [Israeli-Palestinian Conflict] - In 1993, Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) reached an agreement known as the Oslo Accords. - It transferred control of most of the Gaza Strip and major Arab cities in the West Bank to the Palestinians. - It aimed for a final accord within seven years, though this has never been achieved. - The assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and bombings in Jerusalem led many Israelis to doubt the possibility of peace. - Benjamin Netanyahu and later Ehud Barak tried, but failed, to reach a peace agreement with Yasser Arafat. - Violence broke out, leading to the Second Intifada marked by suicide bombings on Israeli buses, restaurants, and public spaces. - Ariel Sharon, as Prime Minister, ordered the construction of a security fence between Israel and the West Bank. - Israel withdrew from Gaza, but Hamas seized power, launching rocket attacks. - In 2008, Israel sent in ground troops. - During the Second Intifada in 2012, Israel deployed the Iron Dome missile-defence system, reducing Hamas\' effectiveness. -