Ch09 Econ Growth 2 Policy PDF

9 Economic Growth II: Technology, Empirics, and Policy MACROECONOMICS N. Gregory Mankiw ® Fall 2014 PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich update © 2015 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved  IN TH IS CHAP...

9 Economic Growth II: Technology, Empirics, and Policy MACROECONOMICS N. Gregory Mankiw ® Fall 2014 PowerPoint Slides by Ron Cronovich update © 2015 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved  IN TH IS CHAPTER, YOU WILL LEARN: ▪ how to incorporate technological progress in the Solow model ▪ about policies to promote sustainable growth ▪ about growth empirics: confronting the theory with facts ▪ two simple models in which the rate of technological progress is endogenous 1  Introduction In the Solow model of Chapter 8, ▪ the production technology is held constant. ▪ income per capita is constant in the steady state. Neither point is true in the real world: ▪ 1908–2008: U.S. real GDP per person grew by a factor of 7.8, or 2.05% per year. ▪ examples of technological progress abound (see next slide). CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 2  Examples of technological progress ▪ U.S. farm sector productivity nearly tripled from 1950 to 2009. ▪ The real price of computer power has fallen an average of 30% per year over the past three decades. ▪ 2000: 361 million Internet users, 740 million cell phone users 2011: 2.4 billion Internet users, 5.9 billion cell phone users ▪ The surge in platform economics – or leveraging the connectivity to the internet facilitated by wider coverage of wireless telephony, faster download and upload speeds, more powerful smartphones, and businesses and government adapting to online presence. ▪ 2020s: the use of artificial intelligence (multilanguage models) in research, production, etc.  Technological progress in the Solow model ▪ A new variable: E = labor efficiency ▪ Assume: Technological progress is labor-augmenting: it increases labor efficiency at the exogenous rate g: E g= E CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 4  Technological progress in the Solow model ▪ We now write the production function as: Y = F (K , L  E ) ▪ where L × E = the number of effective workers. ▪ Increases in labor efficiency have the same effect on output as increases in the labor force. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 5  Technological progress in the Solow model ▪ Notation: y = Y / LE = output per effective worker k = K / LE = capital per effective worker ▪ Production function per effective worker: y = f(k) ▪ Saving and investment per effective worker: s y = s f(k) CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 6  Technological progress in the Solow model (δ + n + g) k = break-even investment: the amount of investment necessary to keep k constant. Consists of: ▪ δ k to replace depreciating capital ▪ n k to provide capital for new workers ▪ g k to provide capital for the new “effective” workers created by technological progress CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 7  Technological progress in the Solow model Investment, Δk = s f(k) − (δ +n +g)k break-even investment (δ+n +g ) k sf(k) k* Capital per worker, k CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 8  Steady-state growth rates in the Solow model with tech. progress Steady-state Variable Symbol growth rate Capital per k = K / (L × E ) 0 effective worker Output per y = Y / (L × E ) 0 effective worker Output per worker (Y/ L) = y × E g Total output Y = y×E×L n+g CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 9  The Golden Rule with technological progress To find the Golden Rule capital stock, express c* in terms of k*: In the Golden * c = y * − i * Rule steady state, = f (k* ) − (δ + n + g) k* the marginal product of capital c* is maximized when net of depreciation MPK = δ + n + g equals the pop. growth rate or equivalently, plus the rate of MPK − δ = n + g tech progress. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 10  Growth empirics: Balanced growth ▪ Solow model’s steady state exhibits balanced growth—many variables grow at the same rate. ▪ Solow model predicts Y/L and K/L grow at the same rate (g), so K/Y should be constant. This is true in the real world. ▪ Solow model predicts real wage grows at same rate as Y/L, while real rental price is constant. Also true in the real world. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 11  Growth empirics: Convergence ▪ Solow model predicts that, other things equal, poor countries (with lower Y/L and K/L) should grow faster than rich ones. ▪ If true, then the income gap between rich & poor countries would shrink over time, causing living standards to converge. ▪ In real world, many poor countries do NOT grow faster than rich ones. Does this mean the Solow model fails? CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 12  Growth empirics: Convergence ▪ Solow model predicts that, other things equal, poor countries (with lower Y/L and K/L) should grow faster than rich ones. ▪ No, because “other things” aren’t equal: ▪ In samples of countries with similar savings & pop. growth rates, income gaps shrink about 2% per year. ▪ In larger samples, after controlling for differences in saving, pop. growth, and human capital, incomes converge by about 2% per year. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 13  Growth empirics: Convergence ▪ What the Solow model really predicts is conditional convergence—countries converge to their own steady states, which are determined by saving, population growth, and education. ▪ This prediction comes true in the real world. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 14  Growth empirics: Factor accumulation vs. production efficiency ▪ Differences in income per capita among countries can be due to differences in: 1. capital—physical or human—per worker 2. the efficiency of production (the height of the production function) ▪ Studies: ▪ Both factors are important. ▪ The two factors are correlated: countries with higher physical or human capital per worker also tend to have higher production efficiency. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 15  Growth empirics: Factor accumulation vs. production efficiency ▪ Possible explanations for the correlation between capital per worker and production efficiency: ▪ Production efficiency encourages capital accumulation. ▪ Capital accumulation has externalities that raise efficiency. ▪ A third, unknown variable causes capital accumulation and efficiency to be higher in some countries than others. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 16  Growth empirics: Production efficiency and free trade ▪ Since Adam Smith, economists have argued that free trade can increase production efficiency and living standards. ▪ Research by Sachs & Warner: Average annual growth rates, 1970–89 open closed developed nations 2.3% 0.7% developing nations 4.5% 0.7% CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 17  Growth empirics: Production efficiency and free trade ▪ To determine causation, Frankel and Romer exploit geographic differences among countries: ▪ Some nations trade less because they are farther from other nations, or landlocked. ▪ Such geographical differences are correlated with trade but not with other determinants of income. ▪ Hence, they can be used to isolate the impact of trade on income. ▪ Findings: increasing trade/GDP by 2% causes GDP per capita to rise 1%, other things equal. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 18  Policy issues ▪ Are we saving enough? Too much? ▪ What policies might change the saving rate? ▪ How should we allocate our investment between privately owned physical capital, public infrastructure, and human capital? ▪ How do a country’s institutions affect production efficiency and capital accumulation? ▪ What policies might encourage faster technological progress? CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 19  Policy issues: Evaluating the rate of saving ▪ Use the Golden Rule to determine whether the U.S. saving rate and capital stock are too high, too low, or about right. ▪ If (MPK − δ) > (n + g ), U.S. economy is below the Golden Rule steady state and should increase s. ▪ If (MPK − δ) < (n + g ), U.S. economy is above the Golden Rule steady state and should reduce s. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 20  Policy issues: Evaluating the rate of saving To estimate (MPK − δ), use three facts about the U.S. economy: 1. k = 2.5 y The capital stock is about 2.5 times one year’s GDP. 2. δk = 0.1 y About 10% of GDP is used to replace depreciating capital. 3. MPK × k = 0.3 y Capital income is about 30% of GDP. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 21  Policy issues: Evaluating the rate of saving 1. k = 2.5 y 2. δk = 0.1 y 3. MPK × k = 0.3 y To determine δ, divide 2 by 1: k 0.1y k = 2.5 y   = 0.1 = 0.04 2.5 CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 22  Policy issues: Evaluating the rate of saving 1. k = 2.5 y 2. δk = 0.1 y 3. MPK × k = 0.3 y To determine MPK, divide 3 by 1: MPK  k 0.3 y k = 2.5 y  MPK = 0.3 = 0.12 2.5 Hence, MPK − δ = 0.12 − 0.04 = 0.08 CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 23  Policy issues: Evaluating the rate of saving ▪ From the last slide: MPK − δ = 0.08 ▪ U.S. real GDP grows an average of 3% per year, so n + g = 0.03 ▪ Thus, MPK − δ = 0.08 > 0.03 = n + g ▪ Conclusion: The U.S. is below the Golden Rule steady state: Increasing the U.S. saving rate would increase consumption per capita in the long run. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 24  Policy issues: How to increase the savings rate ▪ Reduce the government budget deficit (or increase the budget surplus). ▪ Increase incentives for private saving: ▪ Reduce capital gains tax, corporate income tax, estate tax, as they discourage saving. ▪ Replace federal income tax with a consumption tax. ▪ Expand tax incentives for IRAs (individual retirement accounts) and other retirement savings accounts. ▪ Eradicate public and private corruption CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 25  Policy issues: Allocating the economy’s investment ▪ In the Solow model, there’s one type of capital. ▪ In the real world, there are many types, which we can divide into three categories: ▪ private capital stock ▪ public infrastructure ▪ human capital: the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through education ▪ How should we allocate investment among these types? CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 26  Policy issues: Allocating the economy’s investment Two viewpoints: 1. Equalize tax treatment of all types of capital in all industries, then let the market allocate investment to the type with the highest marginal product. 2. Industrial policy: Govt should actively encourage investment in capital of certain types or in certain industries, because they may have positive externalities that private investors don’t consider. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 27  Possible problems with industrial policy ▪ Picking industries (‘winners) to help is a popular policy tool by governments. ▪ However, The govt may not have the ability to “pick winners” (choose industries with the highest return to capital or biggest externalities). ▪ Politics (e.g., campaign contributors, padrino system) rather than economics may influence which industries get preferential treatment. ▪ Real estate, construction, or even agriculture CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 28  Policy issues: Establishing the right institutions ▪ Creating the right institutions is important for ensuring that resources are allocated to their best use. Examples: ▪ Legal institutions, to protect property rights. ▪ Capital markets, to help financial capital flow to the best investment projects. ▪ A corruption-free government, to promote competition, enforce contracts, etc. ▪ 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James Robinson. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 29  Policy issues: Encouraging tech. progress ▪ Improve basic education (elementary, high school), reading, writing, computing skills. ▪ Patent laws: encourage innovation by granting temporary monopolies to inventors of new products. ▪ Tax incentives for R&D ▪ Grants to fund basic research at universities ▪ Industrial policy: encourages specific industries that are key for rapid tech. progress (subject to the preceding concerns). CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 30 CASE STUDY: The worldwide slowdown Growth in output per person (percent per year) 1948-72 1972-95 Canada 2.9 1.8 France 4.3 1.6 Germany 5.7 2.0 Italy 4.9 2.3 Japan 8.2 2.6 U.K. 2.4 1.8 U.S. 2.2 1.5  Possible explanations for the slowdown ▪ Measurement problems: Productivity increases not fully measured. ▪ But: Why would measurement problems be worse after 1972 than before? ▪ Oil prices: Oil shocks occurred about when productivity slowdown began. ▪ But: Then why didn’t productivity speed up when oil prices fell in the mid-1980s? CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 32  Possible explanations for the slowdown ▪ Worker quality: 1970s—large influx of new entrants into labor force (baby boomers, women). New workers tend to be less productive than experienced workers. ▪ The depletion of ideas: Perhaps the slow growth of 1972–1995 is normal, and the rapid growth during 1948–1972 is the anomaly. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 33  Which of these suspects is the culprit? All of them are plausible, but it’s difficult to prove that any one of them is guilty. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 34 CASE STUDY: The worldwide slowdown Growth in output per person (percent per year) 1948–72 1972–95 1995–2010 Canada 2.9 1.8 1.6 France 4.3 1.6 1.1 Germany 5.7 2.0 1.3 Italy 4.9 2.3 0.6 Japan 8.2 2.6 0.6 U.K. 2.4 1.8 1.7 U.S. 2.2 1.5 1.5  CASE STUDY: The worldwide slowdown ▪ The computer revolution and Internet began to affect aggregate productivity in mid-1990s continuing into the mid 2000s. ▪ This period was then offset by the financial crisis and deep recession of 2008–2009. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 36  Endogenous growth theory ▪ Solow model: ▪ sustained growth in living standards is due to tech progress. ▪ the rate of tech progress is exogenous. ▪ Endogenous growth theory: ▪ a set of models in which the growth rate of productivity and living standards is endogenous. ▪ Paul Romer (Nobel prize awardee) CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 37  The basic model ▪ Production function: Y = A K where A is the amount of output for each unit of capital (A is exogenous & constant) ▪ Key difference between this model & Solow: MPK is constant here, diminishes in Solow ▪ Investment: sY ▪ Depreciation: δK ▪ Equation of motion for total capital: ΔK = sY − δK CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 38  The basic model ΔK = sY − δK ▪ Divide through by K and use Y = A K to get: Y K = = sA −  Y K ▪ If s A > δ, then income will grow forever, and investment is the “engine of growth.” ▪ Here, the permanent growth rate depends on s. In Solow model, it does not. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 39  Does capital have diminishing returns or not? ▪ Depends on definition of capital. ▪ If capital is narrowly defined (only plant & equipment), then yes. ▪ Advocates of endogenous growth theory argue that knowledge is a type of capital. ▪ If so, then constant returns to capital is more plausible, and this model may be a good description of economic growth. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 40  A two-sector model ▪ Two sectors: ▪ manufacturing firms produce goods. ▪ research universities produce knowledge that increases labor efficiency in manufacturing. ▪ u = fraction of labor in research (u is exogenous) ▪ Mfg prod func: Y = F [K, (1 − u )E L] ▪ Res prod func: ΔE = g (u)E ▪ Cap accumulation: ΔK = s Y − δK CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 41  A two-sector model ▪ In the steady state, mfg output per worker and the standard of living grow at rate ΔE / E = g (u ). ▪ Key variables: s: affects the level of income, but not its growth rate (same as in Solow model) u: affects level and growth rate of income CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 42 DISCUSSION QUESTION The merits of raising u Question: Would an increase in u (i.e. devoting more labor to research) be unambiguously good for the economy? Why or why not? 43  Facts about R&D 1. Much research is done by firms seeking profits. 2. Firms profit from research: ▪ Patents create a stream of monopoly profits. ▪ Extra profit from being first on the market with a new product. 3. Innovation produces externalities that reduce the cost of subsequent innovation. Much of the new endogenous growth theory attempts to incorporate these facts into models to better understand technological progress. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 44  Is the private sector doing enough R&D? ▪ The existence of positive externalities in the creation of knowledge suggests that the private sector is not doing enough R&D. ▪ But, there is much duplication of R&D effort among competing firms. ▪ Estimates: Social return to R&D ≥ 40% per year. ▪ Thus, many believe govt should encourage R&D. CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 45  Economic growth as “creative destruction” ▪ Schumpeter (1942) coined term “creative destruction” to describe displacements resulting from technological progress: ▪ a new product is good for consumers but often bad for incumbent producers, who may be forced out of the market. ▪ Examples: ▪ Luddites (1811–12) destroyed machines that displaced skilled knitting workers in England. ▪ Walmart displaces many mom-and-pop stores. ▪ Digital camera replaces film camera ▪ Mobile banking replaces traditional banking CHAPTER 9 Economic Growth II 46  CHAPTER SUMMARY 1. Key results from Solow model with tech progress: ▪ Steady-state growth rate of income per person depends solely on the exogenous rate of tech progress ▪ The U.S. has much less capital than the Golden Rule steady state 2. Ways to increase the saving rate ▪ Increase public saving (reduce budget deficit) ▪ Tax incentives for private saving 47  CHAPTER SUMMARY 3. Productivity slowdown ▪ Early 1970s: productivity growth fell in the U.S. and other countries. ▪ Mid 1990s: productivity growth increased, probably because of advances in information technology. ▪ Late 2000s: growth fell again because of global financial crisis and recession. 48  CHAPTER SUMMARY 4. Empirical studies ▪ Solow model explains balanced growth, conditional convergence. ▪ Cross-country variation in living standards is due to differences in cap. accumulation and in production efficiency. 5. Endogenous growth theory: Models that ▪ examine the determinants of the rate of tech. progress, which Solow takes as given. ▪ explain decisions that determine the creation of knowledge through R&D. 49