Climate Change and Society PDF

7. Climate Change and Society PPT Template is Designed by PoweredTemplate.com at This module is developed by Aldrin P. Cosme, Science Department, MSU-GSC. All photos and media, unless cited,...

7. Climate Change and Society PPT Template is Designed by PoweredTemplate.com at This module is developed by Aldrin P. Cosme, Science Department, MSU-GSC. All photos and media, unless cited, https://poweredtemplate.com/cave-paintings-presentation-68604/ have Creative Commons License or owned by the author, himself. Lecture Outcomes At the end of this video presentation, students should be able to: 1. Describe climate change; 2. Discuss selected modern and paleoclimate data that support the reality of a changing climate; 3. Comment on the assessment of the IPCC that the climate change of the 21st century is anthropogenic; 4. Identify global and national initiatives that are aimed to mitigate climate change. Lecture Outline I. Climate Change: An Overview II. Climate Data A. Modern Data a) Global Average Temperature b) Ice Sheet Mass c) Arctic Sea Ice B. Paleoclimate Data a) Loess b) Ice Cores III. Scientific Basis of Climate Change A. Greenhouse Effect B. Issues on the Greenhouse Effect IV. Initiatives to Mitigate Climate Change A. Kyoto Protocol B. Paris Agreement C. Philippine Climate Change Interventions  Major References Lindsey, R. (2020). Climate Change: Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Accessed on November 4, 2020 at: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide NASA (2020). Climate Change: How Do We Know?. Accessed on November 3, 2020 at: https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ NASA (2020). Global Temperature. Accessed on November 3, 2020 at: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital- signs/global-temperature/ NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (n.d.). Ice Sheets and Glaciers. Accessed on November 3, 2020 at: https://gracefo.jpl.nasa.gov/science/ice-sheets-and-glaciers/ NASA (2020). Arctic Sea Ice Minimum. Accessed on November 3, 2020 at: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital- signs/arctic-sea-ice/ Newbern, E. (2015). Antarctica Is Gaining Ice, So Why Is the Earth Still Warming? Accessed on November 4, 2020 at: https://www.livescience.com/52831-antarctica-gains-ice-but-still-warming.html Riebeek, H. (2005). Paleoclimatology: Written in the Earth. Accessed on November 3, 2020 at: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Paleoclimatology_Speleothems Riebeek, H. (2005). Paleoclimatology: The Ice Core Records. Accessed on November 3, 2020 at: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Paleoclimatology_IceCores  Other Useful References Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Cattani, O., Dreyfus, G., Falourd, S., Hoffmann, G.,... Wolff, E. W. (2007). Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years. Science, 317(5839), 793- 796. doi:10.1126/science.1141038 Kobashi, T., Kawamura, K., Severinghaus, J. P., Barnola, J.‐M., Nakaegawa, T., Vinther, B. M., Johnsen, S. J., and Box, J. E. (2011). High variability of Greenland surface temperature over the past 4000 years estimated from trapped air in an ice core. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L21501, doi:10.1029/2011GL049444. Martin, C. J., Morley, A. L., & Griffiths, J. S. (2017). Introduction to engineering geology and geomorphology of glaciated and periglaciated terrains. Geological Society, London, Engineering Geology Special Publications, 28(1), 1-30. doi:10.1144/egsp28.1 NASA (2020). The Causes of Climate Change. Accessed on November 4, 2020 at: https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ NOAA (n.d.) Picture Climate: What Can We Learn from Ice? Accessed on November 3, 2020 at: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/picture-climate-what-can-we-learn-ice PAGASA (2020). Daily Rainfall and Temperature Monitoring. Accessed on November 3, 2020 at: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/climate-monitoring#daily-rainfall-and-temperature Stoller-Conrad, J. (2017). Core questions: An Introduction to Ice Cores. Accessed on November 3, 2020 at: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2616/core-questions-an-introduction-to-ice-cores/ United Nations Climate Change (n.d.). What is the Kyoto Protocol? Accessed on November 4, 2020 at: https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol United Nations. (n.d.) Climate Change. Accessed on November 4, 2020 at: https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues- depth/climatechange/#:~:text=Climate%20Change I. Climate Change: An Overview What is climate change? Climate change is the alteration of weather patterns in a place over a long time. What is weather? Weather refers to the atmospheric conditions, including temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind pressure, the appearance of typhoons, etc., in a place for a particular time.  What is weather? In terms of precipitation, Cagayan Valley had rainy weather last October 2020. Kindly look at Province of Cagayan Valley (enclosed in yellow box) and compare its color to the legend. (Photo Credits: DOST-PAGASA) What is climate? Climate is the average weather of a place over a long time, let’s say 30 years or more. Average weather or climate means the averages of precipitation, temperature, humidity, wind velocity, etc. Hence, the climate of a place is predictable.  Climate is predictable. On average, the province of Cagayan Valley has a 201-300 mm amount of rainfall in the month of October. (Photo Credits: DOST-PAGASA)  Climate is predictable. If the precipitation pattern of Cagayan Valley will continue to change in the next 20- 30 years, then it could indicate that its climate is changing. (Photo Credits: DOST-PAGASA) I. Climate Change: An Overview The changing climate of the Earth is well-supported by scientific evidence. II. Climate Data: Modern vs. Paleoclimate Data  II. Climate Data: Modern vs. Paleoclimate Data Modern climate data include climate information in the contemporary times which are collected directly with the aid of advanced technology. Most of the modern data are collected by satellites from space. Paleoclimate data include climate information for the past thousands or millions of years. Paleoclimate data can be collected from various sources, such as ice cores, soil, trees, etc. B. Ice core, source of paleoclimate data A. Satellite from space, source of modern climate data  How to be a climate scientist? Position Climate Scientist Gather and analyze data from the atmosphere, oceans and land; Job Create computer models to simulate the effects of Description changes to climate; Study past climates to understand what might happen in the future. BS or Graduate degree in Atmospheric Science, or allied fields Academic and (Physics, Chemistry, Geology, Engineering, etc.) Skill Requirements Must be skilled in technical writing, mathematical and computer modelling, research, etc. Climate Scientist drilling the Antarctic Ice sheets Are you interested in climate science? Check the best schools for climate education here. II. Climate Data: Modern vs. Paleoclimate Data Modern Climate Data Paleoclimate Data Global Surface Temperature Loess Soil Ice Sheet Mass Ice Core Records Arctic Sea Ice Coverage a. Global Surface Temperature Beginning in 1880, the global surface temperature was collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office. Currently, the World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations compile data from weather stations across the globe, both on land and oceans. Image Credits: DataBasin.org What is a weather station? Weather station is an installation that includes instruments such as a thermometer to take temperature readings, a barometer to measure the pressure in the atmosphere, as well as other instruments to measure rain, wind, humidity, and more. Weather stations range from simple analog to digital technology. a. Global Surface Temperature There are thousands of weather stations setup across the globe. The dots in the world map represents the location of the weather stations. Image Credits: DataBasin.org  What is temperature anomaly? 2019 Anomaly: 0.99°C 2000 Anomaly: Accepted Normal 0.39°C Temperature: 14°C 2010 Anomaly: 0.72°C Temperature anomaly is the difference between the average temperature at any point in time and the normal average global surface temperature. Currently, the accepted normal average global surface temperature is 14°C, based on the data collected between 1951 and 1980. Temperature anomaly in 2000 is 0.39°C, which means that it is 0.39°C higher than 14°C. In 2010 and 2019, the respective global temperatures are 0.72°C and 0.99°C higher than the normal global surface. With continuously rising global surface temperature, scientists conclude that the earth is getting hotter, which is an indication of a changing climate.  a. Global Surface Temperature You watch a time-lapse video above that shows the change in the global surface temperature from 1884 to 2020 here. (Image Credit: NASA)  b. Melting of Ice Sheets in Greenland and Antarctica What is an ice sheet? Ice sheets, also known as continental glaciers, are masses of glacial ice that occupy an area over 50,000 km2. Currently, there are only 2 ice sheets that remain on Earth— the Antarctic Ice Sheets in the south pole and the Greenland Ice Sheets in the north pole. The photo on the left is a satellite image of the Antarctic ice sheets. b. Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet Covers Since 2002, climate scientists have employed remote sensing methods using orbiting satellites (GRACE and GRACE Follow-On Satellites) to detect changes in the mass of these ice sheets. The photo on the left shows the pre-launching of the GRACE Follow-on Satellite in 2018. How GRACE and GRACE FO work? GRACE is an acronym for Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment. GRACE FO is the “follow on” space mission when GRACE mission ended in 2016. Both the GRACE and GRACE FO are made up of twin satellites follow the same orbit, with one satellite following the path of the other. These satellites that communicate their distances from each other via microwave signals, depicted as solid yellow line in the picture on the left. Image: NASA.gov How GRACE and GRACE FO work? The twin satellites are separated around 220 kilometers from each other. However, this distance willchange depending on the gravitation field of the earth surface. If the twin satellites pass over surfaces on earth with the same gravitational field (top photo), then they will maintain their distance. However, when they pass over surfaces with different gravitation field (bottom photo), their distance of separation will change. Image Credits: NASA.gov How GRACE and GRACE FO work? Scientists from the NASA use the change in the distance of separation between the twin satellites when they pass on a specific location to calculate the strength of the gravitational field of that location. Since gravity is directly proportional to mass of the objects, they can estimate the mass of a location using the strength of its gravitational field. Following this principle, the red arrow points to a weaker gravitational field in Antarctica which indicates lower ice mass. What is mass balance? Mass balance is the difference between the mass gained by the ice sheet due to snow deposition and the mass loss by melting and calving. A negative mass balance indicates that melting and calving rates are occurring faster than snow deposition. Since the melting of ice is primarily due to high temperatures, a negative mass balance is indicative of a warming and changing climate. b. Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet Covers From the data collected between 2002 and 2016, and from 2018 up to the present, climate scientists found out that the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland have increasing negative mass balance. As shown in the left, the ice sheets in Antarctica are changing at the rate of 148 billion metric tons/year. b. Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet Covers Greenland ice sheets are melting faster than the Antarctic ice sheets, with the rate of 279 billion metric tons/year. b. Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet Covers You can also watch the time-lapse videos for the change in the masses of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets on this site. Image Credits: NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory c. Arctic Sea Ice The Arctic sea ice coverage of reaches its maximum every February or March (blue arrow), and its minimum every September (red arrow). High temperatures melt sea ice; thus, if climate change is real, then the minimum coverage of Arctic sea ice must decrease over time. c. Arctic Sea Ice Continuous data collection on Arctic Sea Ice maximum and minimum started in 1979 when the Nimbus-7 satellite (photo on the left) was sent to space. When Nimbus-7 retired in 1987, several satellites were sent to space to monitor the Arctic sea ice extent. c. Arctic Sea Ice Arctic sea ice minimum, or the sea ice coverage in September, is in continuous decline, at the rate of 13.1% per decade. This decline indicates a warming climate. c. Arctic Sea Ice One of the most affected by the decreasing Arctic sea ice cover is the Polar Bears. These carnivores rely on the sea ice to hunt sea lions. This polar bear in the photo may have not eaten for months due to the decline of its hunting ground. Image Credit: Kerstin Langenberger  c. Arctic Sea Ice There is a visual presentation (time-lapse video) of the area covered by the Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2020. You can find it on this site.  B. Paleoclimate Data It takes 30 years to establish the baseline climate information of a place, and another hundreds or perhaps thousands years to detect climate change. Thus, to prove that climate change is happening, climate data must be extended back to several thousands or millions of years.  B. Paleoclimate Data Climate scientists have employed various techniques to gather information on the climate of the planet thousands of years ago. These efforts allowed climate scientists to extend the climate records of the Earth thousands of years backwards. Collectively, these extended climate records are called paleoclimate (paleo, Greek word for old) data. a. Loess Soil Loess is a special type of soil that is produced primarily by the weight and movement glaciers.  How glaciers produce loess soil? Glaciers are thick and heavy packs of ice sitting on top of a landmass. When glaciers sit on top of huge rocks, their weight and movement can grind those rocks into powder, resulting in a special type of soil called the loess. The rocks on which the glaciers once sat become deformed as well. Northern ice sheets were extended beyond Greenland. By mapping loess soils and the trails of rock debris left by glaciers, climate scientists determined that ice sheets in the north pole were once extended beyond Greenland. Ice sheets can also be found in the basins of the North American Great Lakes, in the British Isles, and Scandinavia. The disappearance of these northern ice sheets supports further the reality of climate change. Photo credits: C. J. Martin, A. L. Morley, and J. S. Griffiths What is an ice core? Ice cores are cylinders of ice drilled from ice sheets and glaciers. The photo on the left shows a scientist retrieving an ice core from his drill.  The age of the ice sheet can be determined from the annual layers of the ice cores. Summer snow layer in the polar regions has light coloration due to its 24-hour exposure to the sun. In contrast, winter snow appears dark. Since it takes a year to have summer and winter, a snow layer with light- to-dark bands therefore represents a year. In the image above, that ice core has 12 summer layers (light, arrows) and 11 winter layers. Thus, the ice core above is around 11.5 years old. b. Ice Cores By digging ice cores down the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and counting their annual snow layers, climate scientists can determine the age of the ice sheets. The longest ice core from Greenland measures 2 miles, which is estimated to be at least 110,000 years old. Ice core samples from Antarctic Ice sheets are older, estimated to be at least 800,000 years old. Ice sheets can “record” the ambient temperature during the formation of snow layer. By lowering an ultra-sensitive thermometer in the ice core drills in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, scientists found out that near the surface, the temperature of the ice sheet is similar to the ambient temperature. Then, the temperature drops in the layers that formed between 1450-1850, which correlates to the existence of the Little Ice Age during this period. As the thermometer is lowered further, the temperature gradually rises, indicating the interglacial after the Little Ice Age, and then drops again, which indicates the last ice age. (see table on the left, credits to Gary Clow, United States Geological Survey). Ice core chemistry reveals past temperature. The chemistry of the ice cores can also tell the past temperatures of the ice sheets. The oxygen atom in water can either be the heavy (O18) or the light (O16) isotope. Also, one or both atoms of hydrogen in water can be the Deuterium (H2) isotope. Accumulation of H2 and O18 correlates with high temperature. The accumulation of heavy oxygen (O18) and Deuterium isotopes in the polar regions correlates withhigh temperatures. In principle, the hotter the temperature is, the greater the concentration of O18 and H2 would be. This relationship is shown in the table in the left. The concentration of Deuterium is shown in black, while O18 is shown in blue. Notice that when the concentration of Deuterium rises, O18 rises, too. (Data Source: Jouzel et al. 2007) Ice core chemistry analysis revealed that the Earth has been to 8 ice ages in the past 800,000 years. Using the concentration of Deuterium in the ice cores, scientists were able to calculate the surface temperature of the Antarctic up to 800,000 years ago, which is shown in the left. These dataset confirmed that the Earth has been to 8 ice ages, which is indicated by the major depressions (red arrows) in the graph. (Data Source: Jouzel et al. 2007). Combining modern and paleoclimate data, it is clear that Earth’s climate system is changing and warming. What’s the first thing that you can associate with climate change? III. Scientific Basis of Climate Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. In 2013, the IPCC released its 5 th assessment report, where they stated that there is 95% certainty that human activities cause the 21st century climate change. A. Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse effect is a well-evidenced theory that explains climate change. According to this theory, the earth’s atmosphere is “blanketed” by greenhouses, like CO2, CH4, and nitrous oxides. The heat-absorbing nature of these gases keeps the earth’s temperature at magnitudes that allow life to thrive. Without it, there could be no life on earth.  Historic CO2 Records from Ice Cores By measuring the concentration of CO2 trapped in ice cores, scientists were able to reconstruct atmospheric data up to 800,000 years ago. CO2 levels in the atmosphere remained almost constant in the past 800,000 years. Its level in the atmosphere never exceeded 300 parts per million (ppm) in the past 800,000 years. (See the graph above)  A. Greenhouse Effect Since the Industrial Revolution, the rise of atmospheric CO2 levels is dramatic—the last time CO2 levels reached 300 ppm was around 300,000 years ago. In 1958, the CO2 level was 315 ppm (red arrow)—it took more than 200,000 years to raise the CO2 levels by just 15 ppm. However, it only took 62 years (1958-2020) to raise the levels of atmospheric CO2 to 100 ppm (315 ppm- 415 ppm) (yellow arrow). This dramatic increase in atmospheric CO2 levels is attributed to the increased emission of CO2 from the use of fossil fuels starting in the industrial revolution.  A. Greenhouse Effect Plotting Co2 levels and global surface temperature yields an almost perfect fit—CO2 levels seem to influence global surface temperature. As shown in the graph above, as Co2 levels continue to rise (solid gray line), global surface temperature also rises (red/blue bars). B. Challenges on the Expanded Greenhouse Effect a. Ice Mass in Some Portions of Antarctica is Increasing in the Last 15 Years Though overall Antarctica is losing more ice mass than it is gaining them,some portions (red arrow) of the continent has an increasing ice mass in the last 15 years (Letterly, 2018). If the overall temperature of the planet is warming and is melting the ice sheets in that continent, how can a portion of it becomes exempted ? Though NASA has tried to explain this fact, it remains a controversy to some scientists. You can read more here. b. Greenland Temperature Variability is Within the Natural Variability Based on a recent reconstruction of the surface temperature over the past 4,000 years, scientists found out the present decadal variability in the surface temperature in Greenland is within the In other words, the range of its natural variability. variation of surface temperature in Greenland is not due to the greenhouse effect. You can read more here.  c. CO2 Levels Continue to Rise but Global Temperature Fluctuates Since the industrial revolution, CO2 levels in the atmosphere continue rising. Following the greenhouse effect, global surface temperature must rise with it, too. However, as shown in the graph above, the global surface temperature dropped (red arrow) during the 1900-1940 period, even though CO2 levels during this period were on the rise. IV. Global and National Initiatives on Climate Change IV. Global Efforts on Climate Change The findings of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have become the bases of several UN-initiated interventions. Currently, interventions to climate change are focused on resiliency programs and the reduction of CO2 emissions. A. The Kyoto Protocol ❑ The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement that legally binds countries which are heavily industrialized and have economies in transition to limit their greenhouse gas emissions. ❑ Being a signatory to the Protocol means that a country needs to adopt policies and measures on climate change mitigation and to report these measures periodically. Image Credits: factsnme.com B. Paris Climate Agreement In 2015 during a meeting in Paris, world leaders had a landmark agreement that was aimed to combat climate change and to accelerate and intensify the actions and investments needed for a sustainable low carbon future. Currently, 186 countries have ratified the Paris Agreement, including the Philippines. The famous actor Leonardo DiCaprio served as the UN Messenger of Peace during the ratification of the Paris Agreement. Watch his speech here. C. Philippine Climate Change Interventions In 2009, Republic Act 9729 (Climate Change Act of 2009) signed was into law, which led to the creation of the Philippine Climate Change Commission (CCC). CCC serves as sole policy-making body of the government which shall coordinate, monitor and evaluate the programs and action plans of the government relating to climate change. C. Philippine Climate Change Interventions The Climate Change Commission manages the Green Climate Fund from the United Nations, a funding that aims to assist the Philippines for its climate change adaptation and mitigation projects. As of March 2020, the CCC has 129 projects funded by the GCF, amounting to USD 5.6 billion. C. Philippine Climate Change Interventions The CCC also manages the People’s Survival Fund (PSF), amounting to Php 1 Billion per year, which is intended for projects that are aimed for increasing community resilience on climate change. One (red box) of the 6 projects funded by PSF involves a few faculty and staff of Mindanao State University- General Santos City. Visit the website of Philippine Climate Change Commission here to learn more about its programs.  Activity 11. Do You Agree in the Anthropogenic Climate Change Based on what you learned from this presentation and your knowledge on climate change, do you agree that the climate change of the last century up to the present is due to anthropogenic activities? Why? Post your 300-500-word answer in the forum “Do You Agree in Anthropogenic Climate Change” posted in Moodle. You have until June 11, 2021 to post your informed opinion. End of Presentation