Lecture 6 Ecological Risk Analysis & Cumulative Effects Assessment PDF

Lecture 6 Ecological Risk Analysis & Cumulative Effects Assessment  Lecture 6: Objectives: 1. To define ecological risk and discuss its role in society (part of Step 5) 2. To...

Lecture 6 Ecological Risk Analysis & Cumulative Effects Assessment  Lecture 6: Objectives: 1. To define ecological risk and discuss its role in society (part of Step 5) 2. To illustrate how ecological risk analysis using RAMAS can be helpful in EIA using Hibernia offshore oil development on the Grand Banks as a case study 3. To understand Cumulative Effect Assessment 4. To outline Website Visit No. 6 Appendix A: 11 Step CEA Methodology by Canter Appendix B: Stochastic Mathematics for Risk Analysis  Objective 1. What is Risk & Ecological Risk in our Society? We live in an uncertain world-relates to the continually changing world driven by technology, growing population, envir. challenges, & economy. McKibben- “the past is no longer a good predictor of the future” Nick Bostrom-existential risk Where there is uncertainty and lots of change, people feel uncomfortable-want to understand what is happening and what the future will be.  Risk Risk is the likelihood or probability that a particular set of circumstances will occur, resulting in a particular adverse consequence (risk end point), over a particular time period. In EIA, the three main types of risk assessment are carried out: (most involve quantification/modelling) - engineering risk-risk of particular accident-oil spill, nuclear meltdown, or structure failure -ecological risk-risk to a natural population or ecosystem -health risk-worker safety in a chemical plant, a hazardous clean-up, or exposure of local residents to an air emission or water effluent-often during the operational phase NOTE: RISK AS DEFINED HERE IS NEGATIVE WHEREAS IMPACTS ARE BOTH POSITIVE & NEGATIVE  What to Do in a Risk Society? If we can predict the future, does this imply we can understand and control it? Not necessarily. Furthermore, our predictive capacity has not been very good. Thus, what are the main risks? How do we make the best decisions in such a risky world-EIA is about making decisions. Ulrich Beck-said we live in the “Risk Society”- new risks related to modernization and more uncertainty arise continuously No Zero Risk (Operationally not definable) EIA is also about predicting the future with the development and comparing that hypothetical future to the one without the development EIA also encompasses many ecological and social risks of undertaking ‘highly uncertain’ developments How willing are we to accept higher risks in activities over which we have no control? There is no way to reduce risks for everyone- especially in EIA. With all physical projects there is some risk-is it acceptable to the stakeholders?  Thinking About Risk Large number of tools and methodologies in many sectors: health, transportation, nuclear energy etc. What is the risk of eating genetically-modified foods? What is the risk of smoking a pack of cigarettes per day? Is water safe to drink? Is air safe to breathe? Drink milk, don’t drink milk, eat butter not margerine, drinking is good/bad for you? The advice we receive on risk fills volumes and can be contradictory-if we obeyed it all, life would be a little dull.  Some Definitions: Note How Risk & Hazard Are Different but Related Stressor-any physical, chemical or biological agent or process arising from a pressure, which can induce an adverse environmental response. Threat-An action or activity that has the capacity to adversely affect an ecological component (similar to a VEC) and its value. Hazard-the potential or capacity of a threat (substance or activity) to cause adverse effects on humans or the environment under the conditions of exposure. Risk is the likelihood or probability that a particular set of circumstances will occur (e.g. exposure to a hazard), resulting in a particular adverse consequence (risk end point), over a particular time period. Risk Endpoint-explicit expression of the actual environmental  Ecological Risk Analysis (ERA) for Setting Guidelines and in EIA In 1980s, US Congress begins to use environmental risk estimates to write legislation-the more rigorous a standard usually the more costly US Environmental Protection Agency sets up large program to quantify ecological risk Oak Ridge National Laboratory-focus on toxic chemical & nuclear risk Canada uses ecological risk somewhat later-part of CEPA (1999/2012)-Can. Environmental Protection Act  Ecological Risk Analysis (cont.-2) Measured in terms of consequences and likelihood-language & math of probability. Acknowledges the uncertainties with prediction. There are many pathways that lead to environmental risk that affect human populations and the ecosystems they depend upon. Risk identification is the process of determining what can happen, why and how.  Reasons for Quantifying Ecological Risk May want to understand the risk from introducing a new chemical into the environment. May be necessary to study the risk in more detail for an environmental impact assessment (Hibernia example). May want to establish an environmental regulatory requirement scientifically-allowed level of arsenic in drinking water. May want to identify and prioritize a range of risks to decide where to put environmental management effort.  Objective 2. Quantifying Ecological Risk & RAMAS Hibernia Offshore oil development Argued over a floating versus fixed (GBS) platform Location-iceberg laden waters-unique Grand Banks= rich fishing area Platform = about ½ height of Empire State Bldg. Absence of direct experience/projects of this scale Problems with how forecasts were made using data from other places-population growth, housing, etc. Biophysical impacts were glossed over-PR blitz Proponent (ExxonMobil Oil) prepared the EIA Report EIA Panel appointed by Minister of the Environment  Hibernia Gravity Based Structure (fixed platform) 315 km from shore Seabed: 80 m deep 224 m tall 1.3 x 106 metric tons 2014-6000 L oil spill Issues: icebergs, marine ecology, fish, seabirds, pollution, & way of life with fishing vs. oil production With climate change, more ice is breaking off and forming icebergs Environment Canada Worried About Seabirds-Murres- ‘Prime’ VEC (Ecological and Social Impacts)  Ecological Risk …”the probability that something undesirable will happen to an ecological component.” Risk calculations involve stochastic mathematics-taking probabilities, explained in Appendix A-end of slides.  Need to Know: Identity of ecological component (individual, population or ecosystem level) What is undesirable? RISK END POINT (ecologically relevant, important to society, operationally defined, measurable) Calculation of uncertainty RAMAS: Risk Assessment Management and Audit Systems This is called pseudo-extinction, a population level that is so low that it is difficult for the species to flourish again. RAMAS Uses Leslie Matrix to Project Populations Into Future with Matrix Multiplication  Life History Table of Murres (N=86,000 breeding pairs/207,000 total) Sex ratio 1:1 Maximum age: 28 years Fecundity (F): 0-4 yrs 0 eggs per female 5-28 yrs.74 eggs per female Survivorship 0-1 yr.50 10% 1-2 yr.70 10% 2-3 yr.80 10% 4-28 yr.94 5%  Murres Have Some Unique Biology That Contributes to Ecological Risk Dive throughout water column to feed, Seasonal distribution, flightless (swimming) migration Live in large colonies Low reproduction rates Delayed reproduction High natural adult survivorship One drop-loss of heat Murre Colony RISKS-Sometimes Counterintuitive Catastrophic Chronic Example Major oil spill Routine discharges Occurrence Rare-poor data Common-good base data base Cause-effect Obvious Not Clear Public Concern High Low Risk Low to high Low to high  Risk to Murres Murres are at high ecological risk not just over 20 year duration of the project, but also many years after its conclusion. Both chronic and catastrophic impacts create high risk. These impacts were modeled separately but in nature they would occur together and thus murres would be at greater risk.  Murre Risk Study Results Murres could suffer substantial losses from both chronic and catastrophic oil pollution- they are truly at risk. Because of their life history parameters, recovery would be slow, so slow that the project would be concluded. Proponents failed to provide estimate of ecological risk at all levels (individual, population and ecosystem). Better methods are available and should be used for a variety of key species.  Later, Auditor General Would Revisit Hibernia’s Environmental Assessment-Poor Grades Hibernia oil field on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland Oil drilling platform one of most significant construction projects in North America Absence of direct experience with a project of this scale EIA incorporated analogue techniques EIA forecasting regarding impacts of project on population growth, employment and infrastructure needs were based on experiences in other locales – Aberdeen and Calgary. Failed to account for variations in the baseline social and institutional environment Predictions on population growth and housing demand were overestimated Same Auditor General concluded that Confederation Bridge had  Post-Mortem CEAA 2012- put Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board in charge. Bill Montevecchi, Memorial University: "The situation is self reporting by oil companies that the C-NLOPB essentially just rubber stamps," he said. "It's our ocean, it's our province, it's our country and it's not being protected properly.“ (fox in the chicken coup!) Leach’s Storm Petrel populations low This problem will be addressed with new EIA Law.  Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment (CERA)-relates to both Cumulative Effects Assessment & Strategic Environmental Assessment An assessment of all of the environmental risks of a particular area ex. state, province, small country Two step process: Prioritize the risks and rank them (with a lot of stakeholder participation) and then prioritize how the risks should be managed I conducted a CERA for Uruguay-with 40+ experts in biophysical and socio-economic areas to help their new environment agency focus on managing what is most important (national level) Normal activities & accidental events given main economic activities and ecosystem types + separate analysis for trade-related impacts.  Objective 3. Cumulative Effect Assessment-Some Definitions Definition of a cumulative impact: an environmental impact that results from actions that are added to others of the past, present and foreseeable future, caused by multiple human activities and/or natural events that are either repeated “Cumulative impacts result from the incremental effects of an action when considered together with other past, present and reasonably foreseeable future actions regardless of who takes the other action” (Canter, 2012) “CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ARE STUDIED AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL RELATIVE TO THE PROJECT-LARGER SPACE & TIME SCALES Read Chapter in text on CEs  Cumulative Effect Assessment in EIA Occurs over extended space and time scales Space Crowding-CIs occur in space when the same perturbation occurs in locations close together so that the effects overlap spatially Ex. clear cutting a forest-at what point is biodiversity lost with habitat fragmentation Time Crowding-CIs occur in a give time period when the same perturbation occurs with such high frequency that the ecosystem cannot recover from the successive perturbations Ex. flushing a toilet into Halifax Harbour, sewage effluents keep entering so continuously that the ecosystem cannot recover in between flushes Compounded impacts-a given area suffers from multiple space and time crowding impacts over a given time period  Small Actions: Big Impacts Can lead to additive and/or multiplicative (non-linear) impacts that are compounded-multiple human activities in an area and/or multiple interacting impacts from a single large project CIs can result in: “a tyranny of small decisions Like with the risk assessment of chronic oil discharges mentioned earlier, people do not pay attention to small independent decisions about the environment nor are they recognizable as being caused by discrete events. Regional environmental deterioration is a brake on human development and well-being as well as a danger to biodiversity, results in a restructured set of options, loss of flexibility and sustainability potential CEs ARE LARGELY CONSIDERED NEGATIVE/HARMFUL  Remember with CEs Extended space and time scales Causality is complex Feedbacks are numerous No theory to account for what is missing if you do not carefully include CEs in your thinking about what is going to happen with your project in this particular environment  CEs in EIA Refer to CEAA site. Can use this list as a sort of check for your tutorial. Every region of the Examples earth has its – Global climate change-sea level rise/air pollution Acidic precipitation-deposition cumulative effects –– Marine and freshwater pollution CIs and project – Habitat alienation/fragmentation – Ground water contamination of aquifers/pollution & effects-all are salinization/decreasing groundwater quantity effects-not – Large water diversion projects – Excessive resource harvesting fundamentally – Soil deterioration-too much salt, too few organics and different-each m² of nutrients/loss of soil quality and quantity – Biodiversity losses/decrease in renewable resources Canadian land is – Suburban sprawl/ecosystem alternation cumulatively – Deforestation-human & storm related – Advance of agricultural frontier impacted leading to – Accumulation of toxic chemicals in biota regional patterns of– Loss of ecosystem stability and integrity deterioration.  CE(I) Assessment in the US and Canada National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) in the US has included CIs for a long time-term first used in 1970s, sporadically included in EIAs, in 1997-11 step CI process & the methodologies are better developed than in Canada. Still no one agreed-upon methodology. Existing CIs can make project impacts more negative than they would have been in a different environment. In Canada, lot of talk and finally in regulations for major projects in 1992. CEAA 2012-less CIA will be done, > provincial EIAs-fewer requirements for CIA, less available information.  Some Questions to Ask (EPA, 1999) Environmental Resources, Ecosystem Goods and Services, VECs “Is the resource (or VEC) especially vulnerable to incremental effects? Is the proposed action one of several similar actions in the same geographic area? Are other activities in the area having similar effects on the resource (or VEC)? Are these effects historically significant for this resource (or VEC)? Have other analyses in the area identified a cumulative effects concern?”  Canadian CE Assessment Questions like a ‘checklist’ of questions. 1. Have all other projects and perturbations in the region been identified? 2. Does the CEA incorporate applicable ecological and social objectives? 3. Are CEA boundaries clearly identified and explained? 4. Are potential cumulative impact problems characterised? 5. Is a systematic analysis of each identified cumulative impact problem provided? 6. Are conclusions supported with a decision trail? 7. Is a responsive mitigation plan provided to avert predicted impacts? 8. Is a goal-oriented, environmental management plan provided?  When To Do the CEA? Some authors say that it should be done only with residual impacts after developing the EMP. The problem with waiting is that if some impacts are not seen as issues at the first assessment, they maybe discarded from consideration and it is not realized that with the CEs of the region, they could be more serious. By the first part of the assessment, should know the major CEs of the project region and considered potential serious impacts with proposed project activities-what are the major CEs in Halifax Regional Municipality, Nova Scotia, Eastern Canada? Need to also consider what are other developments that will be initiated in the future. Then revisit your CEA when the residual impacts have been  Resolving Cumulative Effects CEs caused by diverse and remote factors. Agricultural policies granting subsidies to farmers can result in land clearing and intensive farming techniques. Global climate change affects the environment through multiple pathways. Although CEs can be managed in a variety of ways, however, they can only be stopped by fundamental changes to wider policy, economic and societal decisions-single proponent can not be responsible for the CEs in project area. Often fairly intractable because of institutional and jurisdictional boundaries: ex. Acid precipitation originating  Objective 5. Website Visit 6-Risk and Cumulative Effects Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) Practitioners’ Guide at CEAA Website –BE ABLE TO ANSWER THE QUESTIONS International Association for Impact Assessment US Environmental Protection Agency for ecological risk analysis RAMAS and Lev Ginzburg, ret. Professor at State University of New York at Stoney Brook  Lecture 6 Summary 1. To define ecological risk and discuss its role in society (part of Step 5) 2. To illustrate how ecological risk analysis using RAMAS can be helpful in EIA using Hibernia offshore oil development on the Grand Banks as a case study 3. To understand Cumulative Effect Assessment 4. To outline Website Visit No. 6 Appendix A: 11 Step CEA Methodology by Canter Appendix B: Stochastic Mathematics for Risk Analysis  Appendix A CE Assessment 11 Step Methodology Part 1 Scoping (From Canter, 2012) 1. “Identify the significant or potentially significant, CE issues associated with the proposed action and define the assessment goals. 2. Establish the geographic scope for the analysis 3. Establish the time frame for the analysis 4. Identify other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable actions affecting the resources, ecosystems, and human communities of concern.” CE Assessment 11 Step Methodology Part 2 Environmental Description (From Canter, 2012) 5. “Characterize the resources, ecosystems, and human communities identified in scoping in terms of the response to change and capacity to withstand adverse impacts. 6. Characterize the natural and human factors that adversely affect these resources, ecosystems, and human communities, and their relation to safety or security thresholds established through regulations. 7. Define a baseline condition for the resources, ecosystems and human communities.” CE Assessment: 11 Step Methodology Part 3 Determining the Environmental Consequences (From Canter, 2012) 8. “Identify the important cause-and-effect relationships between human activates and resources, ecosystems, and human communities. 9. Determine the magnitude and significance of CEs. 10. Modify or add alternative to avoid, minimize or mitigate adverse significant cumulative impacts arising and identify opportunities to work with others to also avoid, minimize, mitigate CEs. 11. Monitor cumulative impacts of the selected alternative and apply adaptive management”. Appendix B. More Explanation on Stochastic Mathematics Used in Risk Analysis A Small Detour to Discuss Risk Models: Deterministic vs Stochastic Y = mX + b is the equation for a straight line It is deterministic. If you know the values of m, x, and b, then the value of Y is uniquely determined. A stochastic process is one whose behavior is non- deterministic (illustrates probabilities) in that the next state of the environment is partially, but not fully determined by the previous state of the environment- used in risk models. Ex. Monte Carlo simulation A technique which obtains a probabilistic approximation to the solution of a problem by using statistical sampling techniques. Deterministic Models function f(x) and the values of x uniquely determine the values of y Stochastic Model: Note X values are sampled from distributions-no longer a single known value. Wittwer, J.W., "Monte Carlo Simulation Basics" From Vertex42.com  Monte Carlo Method It is a technique that involves using random numbers and probability to solve problems. The term Monte Carlo Method was coined by S. Ulam and Nicholas Metropolis in reference to games of chance, a popular attraction in Monte Carlo, Monaco.  More on Monte Carlo Methods “The Monte Carlo method is just one of many methods for analyzing uncertainty propagation, where the goal is to determine how random variation, lack of knowledge, or error affects the sensitivity, performance, or reliability of the system that is being modeled. Monte Carlo simulation is categorized as a sampling method because the inputs are randomly generated from probability distributions to simulate the process of sampling from an actual population. We try to choose a distribution for the inputs that most closely matches data we already have, or best represents our current state of knowledge.” (Wittwer, 2004) Lecture 7 Environmental Management Plan (EMP)  Lecture 7: Objectives 1. To discuss Environmental Management Plans (Follow-Up Activities) (Step 7) 2. To identify residual impacts (Step 8) 3. To finish scoping with stakeholders (Step 4- continues throughout the whole assessment) 4. To prepare the EA report (Step 9) 5. To discuss Week 8, and Week 9: Test 1 Note: this is the last lecture you need for Assignment 2 And it ends our lectures on project EIA.  Steps in Environmental Impact Assessment Framework (iterative) (Weeks 5 & 7: green and red arrows; Week 8: blue arrows) Step 2: Step 1: Project Environmental Design and Description Description Step 6: Anticipatory Planning Step 4: Step 3: & Feedback to Project Scoping Bounding Design Step 5: Identify-Assess Impacts Step 7: Environmental Management Planning Step 8: Determination of Residual Impacts Step 9: EIA Report  Objective 1. Prepare an EMP. Management of Impacts Determined in Step 5 Identification of Impacts: Project on Environment-Week 5 Environment on Project-Week 5 Cumulative Impacts-Week 6 Scoping Issues-several weeks  Step 7. Environmental Management Plan (Follow-up Activities) Once potential impacts have been identified and their significance determined the next phase of EIA is to design management strategies to address those impacts. The objective of any impact management system is to optimize the positive outcomes of a project and minimize the negative ones. Outputs of EIA: EIA Report with an EMP (Environmental Management Plan) and an evaluation of Residual Impacts  Environmental Management Plan (EMP) EMP is a planned set of activities that will be implemented if the project, plan or program proceeds to ensure it will be carried out in an environmentally sound manner. Essentially an EMP is a promise by the proponent to the stakeholders. EMPs can include a variety of components and sometimes only one or two for smaller projects with few issues. Possible Components of Canadian EMP Environmental Protection Plan (EPP) or Mitigation Plan (addresses negative impacts) Contingency-Disaster Management Plan, Enhancement Plan (positive impacts), Compensation Plan, Environmental Effects Monitoring Plan, Compliance Monitoring Plan, ‘Stakeholder Participation Plans, and Accountability-Reporting Plan.  International EIAs may also include: (donors often have these requirements before they will release funds.) Institutional Commitment & Strengthening Plan Resettlement Plan Capacity Development & Training Plan Gender Report Sometimes Contingency Plan is termed ‘Disaster Management Plan’ Valuation Analysis of residual impacts Donor Monitoring Plan & Post-Project Plan for when donor leaves project Environmental Management: Hierarchy of Impact Management Practices Four Strategies to Manage Negative Impacts A. Avoidance B. Mitigation C. Enhancement (Rectification) Compensation (now wrongly treated as mitigation-to assuage the public) Often there is a best time to implement each of these strategies so we will discuss them sequentially.  A. Avoidance Avoiding negative impacts at the outset is the most desirable approach (saves costs and time). This is why we have Step 6. Anticipatory Planning and Feedback to Project Design. Methods include: – good project design – scheduling project construction activities to avoid conflict with daily patterns of ecological and socio-economic activity – setting guidelines concerning use of toxic substances – land-use planning and zone designation.  Impact Avoidance (cont…) Impact avoidance does not only enter the equation after impact prediction, but can occur early in the scoping stage through identifying alternative locations, technologies, or project designs and in Step 6 Feedback to Project Design For example: -Activity: road construction -Impact: traffic congestion -Avoidance: schedule construction activity to avoid high traffic periods, put in project design if possible Much more cost effective to put into early planning and design  Environmental Management Plan (EMP) 1. What isn’t managed away becomes a residual impact-something the stakeholders must accept if the project is to proceed. 2. Necessary to eliminate ‘significant residual impacts’. 3. There is no zero risk – always environmental consequences-can’t bring impacts to zero. 4. Proponent needs to be responsible for impacts and not put them on the public to pay for while the profit is the proponent’s alone. Overview of Managing Impacts from Step 5 Impacts EMP R High EPP (Mitigation) E I S M Cross I P Impact Medium D A Matrix U C Low Codes of Good Engineering A T Practice + L S Environmental Good Housekeeping  Environmental Protection Plans- Contains All of the Mitigation Measures For All Normal, Planned Activities Environmental Protection Plans (EPP) are often a mandatory requirement in project-based EIA-focus on construction and operation. EIA process identifies key impacts, issues and management measures. In Canada, if a project is approved, impact management measures need to be further articulated in the form of an EPP which details specific impact management actions and how they will be implemented. EPP is custom-designed to fit a specific project & context-is often a stand-alone document. EPP usually focuses upon mitigation measures.  Environmental Protection Plan for Normal Activities Environmental Protection Plan (EPP) is a key component in project-based EIA-usually focuses upon construction and operation. It begins with a summary of all relevant legislation and the assumption that the proponent is law-abiding & will employ good engineering practices and good environmental housekeeping. Contains the Mitigation Plan-often stand alone and able to be used on site by construction people/action-oriented. It contains everything not included in legislation. EPP is custom-designed to a fit specific project-environment- regulatory context. It focuses solely on the managing negative impacts.  B. Mitigation-Within the Environmental Protection Plan (EPP) Mitigation = Procedures, methods or technologies put into place to reduce a predicted impact to an acceptable level (acceptable in legal sense, or acceptable to those persons impacted). Mitigation practices are needed because not all impacts are recognised in advance – they don’t avoid the impact, but can help minimize the effects. Over time, what used to be mitigation becomes standard project design, so there is blurring between how much goes in Step 1 Project Design and Step 7 the Environmental Management Plan. For example: – Activity: forest clearing – Impact: increased water turbidity due to erosion and runoff – Mitigation: establish stream buffer zones of undisturbed vegetation, erect sediment fences and ponds, etc. Example: Potential Impacts and Management Approaches For Road Construction Project Component/ Impact Management Action Dust Residential air quality Water gravel surfaces Worker health Require safety masks Habitat Vegetation destruction Restore or create elsewhere Risk to wetlands Avoid by rerouting, ensuring good buffer zones, sediment traps Wildlife Habitat fragmentation Create wildlife overpasses Vehicle collisions Road signage & traffic managers Economics Employment Hire locally, train if necessary  More Mitigation Examples -Sediment traps installed at construction site to prevent sediment entering water bodies. -Stack scrubbers on industrial emissions stacks to comply with emission standards. - Avoidance of breeding habitat during construction activities to prevent disturbance of sensitive species during breeding season. -Mitigation is the most effective way to lower negative impacts once they have been identified in Step 5. -Mitigation has to be practical and reasonable.  Accidental Events Require Contingency Plans They include corrective or emergency actions to be undertaken when accidents occur. Generally done for larger projects. Should be a stand-alone field document. Risk calculation-usually not worth the effort to determine accurate probability values for many types of accidents-exception high negative consequences like nuclear plants. Usually probabilities are small and data sets are poor, therefore assume P=1.0-the accident will happen at least once in the project phase.  Every Contingency is not a Disaster It is difficult to foresee all accidents and unplanned events. I often work with “worse case scenarios” with the assumption that if we have planned for the worse, lesser accidents will be manageable. It is good to ask yourselves in assessing your projects, what is the worse thing that can reasonably happen? Contingency plan should be well-organized and easy for manager to find directions for the particular emergency he/she is dealing with.  C. Enhancement Enhancement = restoring environmental quality, rehabilitating certain environmental features, or restoring environmental components to some degree. It can also include outright improvements. Impact management also means creating positive benefits for society and the environment from project development. For example: – Hibernia offshore oil project adopted a ‘buy’ local and ‘hire local’ strategy. – McCain’s PEI potato processing plant-jobs, jobs, jobs! – Confederation Bridge-better for overall development and for medical emergency evacuations. – Traditionally, more socio-economic benefits.  Enhancement Plan-can greatly help improve sustainability of overall project Newer concept-maximize positive changes. Can help to offset negative impacts-whole distribution of impacts pulled to right-does make a difference. Helps a favorable outcome for the proponent. Examples: habitat improvement for birds or lobsters, revegetation, adding diversity to landscape, new school or clinic, job training, employment. Sometimes ‘impact benefit agreements’ are used. Enhancement not a part of CEAA 2012 or IAA 2019 which is unfortunate.  Impact Benefit Agreement (IBA) IBAs are legally binding agreements between a proponent and a community that serve to ensure that communities have the capacity and resources required to maximise the potential positive benefits stemming for project development. IBAs might include commitments to training programs, local hiring policies, or occasionally compensatory payments. In Canada, IBAs are especially important in regard to industries gaining the co-operation of Aboriginal communities and for those communities to achieve certain guaranteed benefits.  D. Compensation-role changed in 2012 to be included in mitigation but really it is not-still n IAA. Compensation is associated with impacts for which no alternative management strategy exists. Compensation can involve monetary payments or other benefits to those negatively affected by the project. For example: Canadian federal policy on aquatic-based habitat used to declare there should be ‘no net loss’ but compensatory habitats can be provided. (1:2,1:3, or 1:4) Compensation doesn’t change the impact-only makes it more palatable to stakeholders. Compensation is not mitigation and does not reduce impacts. Often difficult to make a fair Compensation Plan.  IAA 2019: Similar to CEAA 2012 mitigation measures means measures to eliminate, reduce, control or offset the adverse effects of a project or designated project, and includes restitution for any damage caused by those effects through replacement, restoration, compensation or any other means.-NO  Compensation Plans Attract Free Riders: Do You Know Any Free Riders? Free Rider: “a benefit obtained at another's expense or without the usual cost or effort; also soft or easy treatment” (Merriam Webster Dictionary). PWC with Confederation Bridge went to great lengths to prevent free riders for fishing claims.  Definition of Compensation Replacement of losses by cash, land, or other means. Compensation Plan is that component of the EMP that describes the measures that will be undertaken & committed to if the project proceeds in terms of assisting negatively- affected stakeholders.  Compensation Plan Strictly speaking, compensation is not mitigation but may be done in lieu of mitigation (more cost-effective, more acceptable to affected stakeholders). If compensation is paid for a variety of losses and damages, there may need to be several sub-plans within the larger one. There needs to be a fair & transparent process for determining what is to be compensated, to whom under what conditions, limits of payment, payment conditions and mechanisms, burden of proof, adequate documentation. Often there is a local Compensation Committee with proponent & stakeholder representation. Proponent may give lump sun and Committee decides distribution.  Compensation Examples Often have to do preliminary work to determine who will be For Confederation compensated Bridge, before project is fishermen would announced. not be able to fish for 3-5 years at construction site-Public Works Canada conducted surveys for a few years before the construction began to be sure that they knew who was fishing at the bridge site. For the PEI potato processing plant, potential ground water impacts were so severe that McCains was prepared to bring water to homeowners or buy their nearby properties.  Environmental Monitoring Several types: baseline, effects, compliance, cumulative effects, etc. Often a requirement of an EIA process. Monitoring consists of repeated measurement of environmental components over time. It is easy to measure, but difficult to measure in a meaningful way.  Various goals of Monitoring Programs To continue to provide baseline data so that project activities can be scheduled or planned to avoid or reduce conflict with sensitive VECs. To help understand the patterns of cumulative effects in the environment. To verify EIA predictions and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation to lower uncertainty and risk. To identify unforeseen environmental effects. To provide an early warning of undesirable change in the environment. To improve understanding of environmental cause-effect relationships.  Considerations in Monitoring Programs Needs to be well-thought out. Monitoring is expensive and needs to have ‘actionable’ outputs. Can be important to monitor both positive and negative impacts. Monitoring usually changes with phase of project. Need to employ quality control-assurance methods in the laboratory analysis.  Environmental Effects Monitoring EEM is what we need the most, but almost impossible to do well in normal field situations. Defined as a “program of observations for the purpose of determining whether the presence, or change in the incidence, of a factor has adversely affected critical biological processes, or the physical-chemical nature of the ecosystem. The effect should be attributable to a specific action, agent or process of man”, that is one or more of the project activities.  Environmental Effects Monitoring To test accuracy of impact predictions. To check the effectiveness of mitigation measures. Often has basic theoretical flaws in data analysis, assumptions, and interpretation. We want to know not only that there is a change in an environmental component, but also whether or not the change is caused by the project-this puts more emphasis on the under lying causality. Monitoring does not ‘fix anything’ but can give us information that leads to corrective actions. Suffers from pseudo-replication-cannot replicate treatments only samples. Therefore regular inferential statistics don’t work. Can show differences in samples, but could be normal environmental change- can’t show project is responsible.  Compliance Monitoring Compliance monitoring tests for adherence to laws, regulations, guidelines, codes of good practice. An exceeded limit can shut down an activity- for example, effluent or emission standard is violated. Easier conceptually than EEM because not trying to demonstrate causality just whether or not a given level is exceeded.  Responsibilities in Monitoring Programs What are the monitoring objectives? What difference will the results make? Who is to collect the samples? What is to be done with them? (chain of custody) What is the frequency & duration of the monitoring program? How will data be reported and to whom? Who has responsibility to make changes, when? Who has authority to act on monitoring results? Who is to pay for the program and how much will it cost?  Remember about EA Monitoring: If collection of the data makes no difference to anyone and no management decisions or actions will result, then, one should rethink whether or not the monitoring program has any real value. Monitoring is but one aspect of EMP, but it must lead somewhere-it does not do anything to protect the environment unless it leads to concrete actions based upon monitoring results.  Assignment 2 We have reduced the number of EMP components you will include in Assignment 2. You are given a choice Select ones that are most needed for your project.  Objective 2. Residual Impacts RIs = those environmental impacts that are predicted to remain after implementation of the EMP. RIs = the bottom line of the assessment, the impacts that matter. RIs sometimes undergo valuation using Environmental Economics-most often in international assessments. ARE ANY RIs SIGNIFICANT???? When you write the EA Report, the EMP is a ‘promise’ of the proponent to the stakeholders-it is not yet a reality. Need an effective process (1) to involve stakeholders in the results of the assessment (RI and EMP) and to determine acceptability of both; and (2) ongoing accountability that the proponent keeps his/her EMP promises. Step 8. Determination of Residual Impacts: Bottom Line of EIA Need to describe these impacts in detail: 1. Direction-positive or negative 2. Magnitude-amount of change predicted as compared to the baseline environmental description 3. Geographic extent-where will the impact be located 4. Duration & frequency-when and for how long will the impact last 5.Reversibility-is the impact likely to be reversed over time including environmental management 6.Biophysical/socioeconomic context-general area of impact and any attenuating circumstances & relation to existing CEs 7. Significance 8. Likelihood and Certainty of Prediction Pull Frequency of Impact Distribution from Left (-) to Right (+)  Objective 3. Finish Scoping with Stakeholders Do not view their participation as a public relations exercise-sometimes government’s and proponent’s viewpoint. Consider them a partner in an environmentally sound project. Be creative in interacting with various groups. Listen, listen, listen-they know things you do not-don’t be a “know it all”. Fulfil all of your promises to stakeholders.  Stakeholder Participation Plan If project goes ahead, may need continuing stakeholder involvement especially with larger projects-receive updates on progress, monitoring results, compensation plan reports, etc. Thus, this plan describes how stakeholders can continue to participate, obtain information, stay updated, register complaints, etc.  Objective 4. Step 9. EIA Report EMP Accountability and Reporting Plan This contains overview of EA process used, all of the assessment results (project on environment), chapters on scoping, cumulative effects, environment on project impacts, and the EMP-both of your Assignments 1-2. The EMP represents a detailed commitment of the proponents and others to do certain things if the project proceeds which is detailed in the last part of the EMP-Accountability and Reporting Plan. This plan tells who will do what, who will be accountable, essentially all of the ongoing roles and responsibilities, with schedules. Reporting portion tells who will report to whom and how the public will be able to get information on the ongoing project and communicate their concerns. EIA and Decision Making EIA reports with scoping included along with other information (technical feasibility, economic analyses, regional benefits, etc. are all necessary for the decision maker to consider the pros and cons of all aspects of the project and to balance competing interests. Often there are negative biophysical impacts and positive economic ones, social impacts can be both + and -, if there are winners & losers. Evaluation of EIA Reports-At the End of the Day is this a Useful, Positive Project or a Stupid Development? Adherence to process requirements Attention to all existing laws and regulations Comprehensive scoping & public participation Clarity of presentation Scientific validity Adequacy of data and models Good bounding Explicit and implicit assumptions detailed Accuracy/validity of predictions and conclusions Good EMP with sound mitigation Acceptable, non-significant residual impacts  Justifiable in the Circumstances-in the end a political decision Canadian law (CEAA 2012) and that of other jurisdictions often contains a provision for “justifiable in the circumstances” “If there is a determination that the project, taking into account the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures, is likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects, then the RA (Minister, Governor in Council) must also determine whether or not such effects can be justified under the circumstances. This is the final "test" in the Act. The RA can decide that likely significant adverse environmental effects are not justified after a screening, EIA report, or a public review. It can decide that they are justified, however, only after a public review in the form of mediation or a panel review.” Do not have to consider EIA laws in times of national  Federal and International-IAA 2019 82 An authority must not carry out a project on federal lands, exercise any power or perform any duty or function conferred on it under any Act of Parliament other than this Act that could permit a project to be carried out,…, unless (a) the authority determines that the carrying out of the project is not likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects; or (b) the authority determines that the carrying out of the project is likely to cause significant adverse environmental effects and the Governor in Council decides, under subsection 90(3), that those effects are justified in the circumstances. A continuing loop hole!!  Next Week Week 8 3 Lectures by our TAs. Be sure you watch them. You will learn a lot. Post questions and shows of appreciation. There are no new tutorials for Weeks 8 and 9 as you will be preparing Test 1. This test will give you a small EIA with some flaws for you to identify and address. It is an opportunity for you to demonstrate what you have earned and how you can apply your new knowledge. There is only one more tutorial for Strategic Environmental Assessment in Week 10 after study break. We try to make the end of the class lighter as everything mounts in your schedule.  Lecture 7 Summary 1. To discuss Environmental Management Plans (Follow-Up Activities) (Step 7) 2. To identify residual impacts (Step 8) 3. To finish scoping with stakeholders (Step 4- continues throughout the whole assessment) 4. To prepare the EA report (Step 9) 5. To discuss Week 8, and Week 9: Test 1 6. Note: this is the last lecture you need for Assignment 2 7. And it ends our lectures on project EIA. Appendix for Lecture 7 Objective 5. Website Visit 7 Environmental Management Planning Visits to the World Bank and CEAA to see what they have to say about environmental management and to find any information that could help you with Assignment 2. Note that there is no website visit for week 8 when we have guest lectures.