UNIT 8- FUTURE TRENDS.docx

**Major Threats that can Influence Travel and Tourism Development** **UNIT 8** **Terrorism** is the unlawful act of violence committed to collect ransom, overthrow a government, gain the release of prisoners, exact revenge for real or imagined wrongs, or punish non-believers of religion. When ter...

**Major Threats that can Influence Travel and Tourism Development** **UNIT 8** **Terrorism** is the unlawful act of violence committed to collect ransom, overthrow a government, gain the release of prisoners, exact revenge for real or imagined wrongs, or punish non-believers of religion. When terrorists attack, the objective of the attacks is to instill fear by threatening basic safety and security needs; this has a negative impact upon tourism in the area(s) of attack. When deciding about whether to take a vacation and where to visit, people take the risks such as victimization into consideration; individuals are most likely to visit safe Terrorized Tourists destinations. In international tourism, potential travelers to a country may be dissuaded from visiting when the probability of victimization is high (Altindag, 2014). Safety is one of the fundamental needs that Maslow proposed in his theory of "Hierarchy of Needs," which illustrates the order of the types of needs people must achieve for self-fulfillment. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce's Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, over 29 million Americans traveled abroad in 2013. When planning these trips, safety has become one of the first factors to consider. After the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 the global tourism industry suffered significantly because customers were afraid to fly. The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) calculated that over 10 million travel industry jobs were lost globally, and also suggested that the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, decreased global travel and tourism by 7.4% of global travel and tourism demand (Lennon & O' Leary, 2005). The operating environment for tourism changed dramatically with the attacks in September of 2001. The increasing number of terrorist attacks has become one of the predominant external threats to international travel, and the tourism industry must realizethat terrorism is now an integrated risk of modern travel (O'Connor, Stafford, & Gallagher, 2008). When choosing a destination, image in terms of risk and safety has an impact on the probability of international travelers to visit such places that are perceived as under threat. For example, people perceiving terrorism as a risk of travelling are very likely to avoid the Middle East; visitors may have an image of Africa as a continent which is not safe because of its health risk. Additionally, Africa and Asia are perceived to be worse than Europe and Australia due to health risks from poor food and water quality. Decline in foreign direct investment is one of the source types of economic costs that are directly affected by terrorism. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is the purchase of sufficient stock in a foreign firm to obtain significant management control. Terrorism might be hurting tourism, by reducing tourist arrivals and that over time, continued terrorist attacks might also lead to a significant reduction in FDI.The decision to invest in a foreign country is reached after the expected return and the associated risk has been compared to other opportunities at home and abroad. A higher incidence of terrorism, as perceived by potential investors, will reduce their willingness to invest in terrorism prone areas. **Natural disasters** A **natural disaster** is a major adverse event resulting from **natural** processes of **the** Earth; examples are floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, and other geologic processes. The effect of natural disasters varies depending on the magnitude of the disaster. Earthquakes and hurricanes can destroy structures that change the landscape of the affected region. According to analysts of World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), "tourist destinations can recover from terrorist attacks quicker than they would an environmental disaster." Natural disasters can also hamper tourism due to flights are cancelled, local transportation is paralyzed, and tourist attractions may be damaged. In a chain reaction, the economy also suffered, especially in regions that depend heavily on tourism. As natural disasters intensify and become more frequent, they are getting costlier as well. **In 2009, natural disasters cost insurers about USD 110 billion, while in 2010, the cost was doubled USD 218 billion.** Natural disasters cannot be prevented unless we overhaul our environmental problems. It is important for the tourism industry to take into account the possibility of natural disasters to ensure business sustainability. Moreover, it is good to welcome the idea of avoiding the creation of tourism sites in areas that are likely to be affected by natural disasters due to their geographic location. Aside from carefully choosing tourism sites, it is important for tourism companies to have a disaster emergency plan in place. This will make it easy for the place as a whole to recover faster from the disaster and at the same time, it will mitigate the damage from the disaster. **Positive effect of natural disasters** While natural disasters have an adverse effect on tourism, it is not all bad news. In some places, natural disasters bring more tourists. For example, the village of Boscastle in Cornwall, England witnessed the worst flash floods in 2004 destroying everything in sight. However, within the next few years, the central government spent millions of dollars in reconstruction which brought in more jobs and businesses. Moreover, the media coverage of the disaster and rehabilitation of the place brought publicity to the place, which in turn increased the number of tourists. Similar can be said to Haiti when it was struck with a 7.0 magnitude earthquake in 2010. However, such instances are far and few. Lastly, disasters tend to invite enthusiasts like storm chasers and photographers that want to capture the destructive beauty of calamities. In most cases, natural disasters have a negative impact on the tourism industry and the economy it supports. For this reason, it is important to have a disaster plan and be prepared at all times in place when nature strikes with her fury. **Health scarce** Travel pattern influences disease outbreaks. Frequent travellers accelerate international spread if they are infected early and the outbreak does not otherwise expand rapidly, (Hollingsworth, 2007).The travel routes, aviation network, number of flights departing from and arriving at airport, number of passengers carried, and size of aircraft are important considerations in estimating the spread of modern epidemics. For some types of infections, simulations illustrate that travel restrictions, particularly isolation of largest cities, will be a necessary component in epidemic control strategies. **Specific Infectious Diseases Involving Potential Health Risks for Travelers** -- -- -- -- **Oil price rises** It is expected that global oil prices will increase in the future. Assessing the overall economic impacts on tourism is difficult, as oil price rises will be associated with global changes in other product prices, exchange rates, and incomes. **Economic and political uncertainties affects tourism** The uncertainties are identified as follows: (1) global economic crises, (2) political instabilities (3) domestic and regional political instabilities. Based on the number of tourist arrivals and statistics on tourist flows, study reveals that the tourism market is indirectly affected by the political instability and following economic crisis in within a destination. Furthermore, the domestic and regional political instabilities surrounding may not have a negative effect on tourist flows. **[Homework]** 1. Conduct a research on different destinations that is affected with particular threats. [THREATS] Rising costs of accommodation, transport and destination costs; **Changes in travel motivation caused by demographic and economic factors.** **Demographic [relating](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/relate) to demography (the [study](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/study) of [populations](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/population) and the different [groups](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/group) that make them up).** **Demographic change** will have major implications for the tourism sector over the coming decades but also presents important opportunities. This is among the central findings of the recently published **UNWTO/European Travel Commission **(ETC) report on *"Demographic Change and Tourism.\"* The report sets out the main demographic trends worldwide and in major current and emerging source markets and describes how destinations and the private sector can make the most of these in terms of product development and marketing. Major demographic trends at the global level -- rising populations, increased life expectancy, urbanization, migration, changing family structures -- present fresh challenges for the tourism sector. Demographic change will impact upon the types of tourists that will travel, where they originate from, where they travel to, the types of accommodation they require, and the activities they engage in while away. Visitor's profiles and preferences will become increasingly fragmented, and destination's competitiveness will depend on their ability to develop and market tourism products to an aging, multi-cultural population, structured into a multi-generational, family's population growth, and increased life expectancy, for example, will radically challenge current assumptions of ageing for tourism. Younger tourists who are still working full-time may look to relax on holiday, while older tourists with more time on their hands and a "younger\" outlook may go on holiday to try new activities. Economic factors have a major impact on the tourism industry globally and locally. Fluctuations in the global and local economies can affect the level of demand and supply in tourism in local areas or globally. During the recession, the demand for tourism had been affected at a global scale. Favourable economic situation leads to favourable demand for tourism services globally. When the economic activity and employment are high, people have sufficient disposable income to spend on tourism and travel. This leads to favourable demand and on the other hand lower economic activity and employment lead to low consumption of tourism services and less spending. During the recession demand for tourism services fell because people were forced to cut down on extra costs and the level of employment had fallen worldwide. However, now that the world economy is back on track, demand has rise again and people are spending more on tourism. Fluctuations in the local economies of several countries have still kept happening and they can have short term impact on demand for tourism in these areas. **Demographic and economic factors pros and cons.** **Pros** Increases in income differentials across countries often lead to increases in tourist flows. Strong tourist networks have historically played a large role in enhancing tourist flows. Tax and government transfer policies (e.g. welfare, health care, and educational systems) can attract tourist. **Cons** Tourist costs are central to the tourist decision, they take many forms (e.g. transportation, job search, visa fees) and often vary with distance. Strict tourist policy acts as a restraint in the tourist decision. Demographic factors such as age, education, marital status, and language impact one's willingness to travel. Worsening political and environmental conditions abroad and/or improving conditions at home can lead to less tourist. **Emerging Markets and Destinations** Emerging economies currently lead the growing demand for international tourism. As the number of people with access to greater wealth continues to rise, these countries will gradually expand their market share until 2030. This article focuses on tourism growth lead by BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China. It is essential for you to know the tourism characteristics, tastes and preferences of these countries so that you can tailor your products and services to match.:  (sources: European Travel Commission and UN World Tourism Organisation) - **Brazil **-- in 2016, Brazilian residents took 8.2 million trips worldwide, of which 2.9 million trips were to Europe. International tourism expenditure was €13.1 billion in 2016, ranking Brazil 23^rd^ in the world for tourist spending - **Russia** -- Russian residents made 18.9 million trips globally in 2016, including 13.9 million trips to Europe. Russia occupies the 11^th^ global position in terms of international tourism expenditure and spent €21.6 billion in 2016 - **India** -- Indian residents took 16.4 million trips in 2016, out of which 2.3 million were to Europe. In 2016, international tourism expenditure was €14.8 billion, ranking India 20^th^ in the world for tourist spending - **China** -- Chinese tourists made 84.9 million trips in 2016, of which 10.5 million were journeys to Europe. In 2016, China achieved the highest international tourism expenditure in the world, spending €236 billion **Emerging economies: future trends** The EU maintained its position as the world\'s most-visited tourism destination in 2016, recording 499 million international arrivals (40% of the world total). This figure is expected to reach 557 million arrivals by 2030. UNWTO\'s [study on international tourism trends in EU countries](https://ec.europa.eu/growth/content/international-tourism-trends-eu-28-member-states-current-situation-and-forecast-2020-2025-0_en) predicts that a large proportion of tourists visiting the EU until 2030 will originate from emerging economy source markets in: - Asia - the Americas - Africa - the Middle East An important contribution to world travel growth is expected to come from the Asia-Pacific region. Currently, the EU receives 26 million arrivals from this region. By 2030, this is expected to rise to 34 million arrivals. The Americas will remain the third-largest outbound region. The number of tourists from here is predicted to increase by 2.2% year-on-year, with 37 million visiting EU countries. The number of tourists from Africa is expected to grow by 5.5% year-on-year, with 9 million arrivals from Africa expected in the EU by 2030. The EU currently receives 6 million arrivals from the region -- despite this being a low base figure, Africa is the fastest-growing outbound region in relative terms. Approximately 4 million tourists from the Middle East currently visit the EU per year. By 2030, this is expected to increase to 5 million.