S-curve Analysis PDF

TRIZ Tool : S-curve Analysis Content What does it take to grow a business? What is Main Parameter of Value (MPV) What is S-curve? Understand stages of S-curve What does it take to grow a business? Key Findings Commit to Superior Customer Value Quality & Price Innovation...

TRIZ Tool : S-curve Analysis Content What does it take to grow a business? What is Main Parameter of Value (MPV) What is S-curve? Understand stages of S-curve What does it take to grow a business? Key Findings Commit to Superior Customer Value Quality & Price Innovation — Products & Services Focus on Five Sources of Revenue Growth Base Retention Market Share Gain Market Position Adjacent Markets New Lines of Business Extract from Sergei's presentation from Fourth TRIZ Symposium in Japan, 2008 Focus on Five Sources of Revenue Growth Base Retention Retain/keep your current customers. Incremental innovation Share Take business away from competitors. Radical innovation Gain Market Half of success is showing up where growth is going to happen Positioning Find the new growth segments before anyone else. MPV Adjacent Proliferate to neighboring markets, potentially to totally different Markets markets New Lines of Acquire in unrelated markets Business Main Parameters of Value (MPV) Main Parameters of Value (MPV) are the Product attributes which define Customer behaviour in the market These MPV are objective technical (physical, geometrical, chemical,...) parameters Traditional parameters (e.g. safety, cost, performance,..) are too general and not instrumental for innovation Only 1-3 parameters are important to customers MPVs may differ with different market segments  S-Curve Analysis The S-Curve is both descriptive and predictive Descriptive Ability to identify S-Curve stage Determine best Principle of Operation for achieving goals Prediction Formulate most promising strategies for future development. This includes: fine tune, revamp, dump, find new technology, rethink entire process  S-Curve Evolution Systems do not develop randomly. They develop according to objective evolutionary trends These evolutionary trends are similar to the Natural Selection Law from biology during the 19th century where bacteriologists were able to identify the growth pattern of a colony of bacteria Systems compete for different types of resources (money, energy) 3rd stage (Maturity) Main Parameter 4th stage of Value (Decline) 2nd stage (Growth) 1st stage (Birth) Time  S-curve: Bicycles Distance Time  1st Stage Analysis Overview The system is born where the principle of action is first applied to deliver its main function The system design and components are not refined Face intense competition with emerging and leading technologies Indicators The System is new and has a champion parameter, but has not yet entered the market Examples Stem cell research, software beta version, BIOME car Recommendations Major changes to system including its principle of operation are allowed Must launch into the market as quickly as possible Focus on market where the champion parameter is most important 2nd Stage Analysis Overview Main parameter of value improves rapidly Production volume growth Expand to new applications Indicators The system moves into mass production Differentiation between system application increases The system gains functions that are closely connected to the main function Examples GPS, tablet computer, smart phones Recommendations Optimization is the principal method of improving the system Adapt the system to new fields or applications Adding components to gain more functions 3rd Stage Analysis Overview The system development slows enormously, despite increasing efforts Production volume become stable One or more contradictions increase exponentially, hindering further growth of the function/cost ratio Indicators The system consumes highly specialized resources Supersystem components are designed to accommodate the system Variations differ from one another mainly by design The system acquires additional functions that are of little relevance to the main function Examples Computers, cars, mirrors Recommendations Reduce costs, develop service components, improve aesthetic design Deep trimming, integration of alternative system or transition to supersystem Look for a Main Parameter of Value that is in an earlier stage to develop 4th Stage Analysis Overview The system functionality and revenue decline Production volume drops considerably More effective systems have reached their 2nd stage and are beginning to force the system out Indicators Main function of the system loses its utility become non- utilitarian such as toy, souvenir, decoration or sport equipment, entertainment, etc The system continues to function only in highly specialized fields The system continues to function within a Supersystem Examples Typewriters, film camera, ink blotter Recommendations Look for the market where the System would be competitive Further reduce costs, develop service component, improve design Deep trimming and transition to supersystem Trends of Increasing Value and S-Curve Evolution F const C  F  MPV  C  3rd stage F  C const 4th stage  F  F  C  2nd stage C  F  C  1st stage Time The Overriding Importance of Evolutionary S-Curves MPV target Fundamental Limit of Capability Two Options 1) Change the target 2) Change the System Current System Time  The Overriding Importance of Evolutionary S-Curves MPV target Getting to the target requires a Fundamental Limit of Capability change to the system : solve a contradiction use another means evolve to other trend stages Altered System Current System Time  Predictable Trends of Evolution Ideality MPV X Final Generation 2nd Generation 1st Generation Time