TRIZ Tool: S-Curve Analysis

TRIZ Tool: S-Curve Analysis

• S-curve analysis is used to understand business growth
• Key factors for business growth include: commitment to superior customer value (quality and price, innovation in products and services), focus on five sources of revenue growth (base retention, market share gain, market positioning, adjacent markets, new lines of business)
• Main Parameter of Value (MPV) are the product attributes that define customer behavior in the market
• MPVs are objective technical parameters (physical, geometrical, chemical)
• Traditional parameters like safety, cost, and performance are too general to be useful in innovation
• Only 1-3 parameters are crucial for customers
• MPV can vary with differing market segments
• S-curves are both descriptive and predictive
• Descriptive s-curve analysis is used to identify stages and determine best principles of operation for goals
• Predictive s-curve analysis formulates promising strategies for future development (fine tune, revamp, dump, finding new technology, and rethinking the whole process)

S-Curve Evolution

• Systems evolve according to objective evolutionary trends, akin to biological natural selection
• Systems compete for resources (money, energy)
• Stages of S-curves typically include a birth, growth, maturity, and decline phase.

1st Stage Analysis

• New systems have a "champion parameter", but haven't yet entered the market
• Examples include stem cell research, beta software versions, and new vehicle models
• Recommendations include expeditious market launch and focusing on product features most valued by the target market

2nd Stage Analysis

• Key features include rapid value improvement, increased production volume, and expansion to new applications
• Indicators include moving to mass production, increasing differentiation in application, and improved connection between system functions.
• Examples include GPS, tablets, and smartphones
• Recommendations include system optimization and adapting to new applications and features

3rd Stage Analysis

• S-curves slow down despite efforts
• Production volume stabilizing
• Contradictions arise, hindering further development
• Resources used are specialized and variations in design are of little value to the original function
• Examples include computers, cars, and mirrors
• Recommendations include cost reductions, improved aesthetic design, adapting to alternative systems, searching for a Main Parameter of Value from an earlier stage

4th Stage Analysis

• System functionality and revenues decline, along with production volume
• Existing better systems replace the current system due to inefficiency or value loss.
• System loses utility in less specialized areas
• Examples include typewriters, film cameras, and ink blotters
• Recommendations include finding new competitive markets, cost and design improvements, and possible transition to a supersystem.

Trends of Increasing Value and S-Curve Evolution

• Visual representation shows increasing value over time, with specific stages for understanding growth patterns.

The Overriding Importance of Evolutionary S-Curves

• Achieving a target MPV (Main Parameter of Value) often requires altering the current system, rather than simply adjusting the target.
• Evolutionary trends are predictable and stages of development follow a certain pattern
• Finding a new MPV in earlier stages of the S Curve development, to move to the next generation, helps avoiding declining stages.

Predictable Trends of Evolution

• The graph shows increasing value over time, with clear stages, including a 1st, 2nd, and final generation, reflecting a repeating pattern of evolution.