S-Curve Analysis & Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution PDF

TMN1003/TMS1003 / TMT 1003 SYSTEMATIC INNOVATION AND INNOVATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING Semester 2022/2023 Back Module Overview At the end of this module, learners should be able to: 1. Demsonstrate the ability to apply the Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution in the design...

TMN1003/TMS1003 / TMT 1003 SYSTEMATIC INNOVATION AND INNOVATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING Semester 2022/2023 Back Module Overview At the end of this module, learners should be able to: 1. Demsonstrate the ability to apply the Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution in the design and analysis of innovative products and solutions 2. Demonstrate the ability to define, analyse and direct product development strategies Back 3  Altshuler’s Key 1 Problems and solutions were Discoveries repeated across industries & sciences à 40 Inventive Principles for solving Problems Initial analysis of patents (worldwide) 2 Patterns of technical evolution were repeated across industries 200,000 Synthesized 40,000 & sciences à Technology Trends down to just to evolve a product to the next innovative generation patents 3 Innovations used scientific effects outside the field from where the original problem was found à Scientific Effects can be used to solve problems in unique ways Today, more than 2.8M patents have been analyzed & investigated Back 3  Everything that performs a main useful function is an engineering system e.g. car, pen, book, knife, etc. The system components are the elements that are an integral part of the system design Engineering Systems The supersystem components contain elements that influence the system (but were not designed as part of the system) The product is the focal element of the system; primary reason the system was designed  Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution Trend of S-curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Ideality Trend of Trend of Increasing Trend of Trend of Increasing Transition to the Completeness of Optimization Degree of Trimming Supersystem System Components of Flows Trend of Trend of Uneven Trend of Increasing Elimination of Development of Coordination Human System Components Involvement Trend of Increasing Controllability Trend of Increasing Dynamicity Back 3  Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution Trend of S-curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Ideality (Value) Trend of Trend of Increasing Trend of Trend of Increasing Transition to the Completeness of Optimization Degree of Trimming Supersystem System Components of Flows Trend of Trend of Uneven Trend of Increasing Elimination of Development of Coordination Human System Components Involvement Trend of Increasing Controllability Trend of Increasing Dynamicity TRIZ Tool: S-Curve Analysis S-Curve Natural Lifecycle Back  S-Curve Evolution MPV 3rd stage (Maturity) Stage 1 – Generation of system 4th stage Stage 2 – Rapid Growth of system (Decline) Stage 3 – Small increments of system 2nd stage (Growth) Stage 4 – Deterioration of some parameters of system 1st stage (Birth) Time Laws of Engineering(Technical) system evolution Effective technology solutions for inventive problems can only be solved based on conscious use of the laws of technical systems evolution. Genrich Atlshuller Back 3 Distance S-Curve Evolution for Regular Bicycle Time  S-Curve Evolution MPV 3rd stage (Maturity) 4th stage (Decline) 2nd stage Stage 1 – Generation of system (Growth) Stage 2 – Rapid Growth of system 1st stage Stage 3 – Small increments of system (Birth) Stage 4 – Deterioration of some parameters of system Time  Main Parameters of Value (MPV) Key Indicator of Customers unmet needs that determine purchase decisions Helps to systematically connect Business Challenges to Technical Indicators Specify product attributes representative of the stage of the product Can be mapped objective technical (physical, geometrical, chemical,...) parameters TRIZ Tools allows us to model these parameters E.g. Function Analysis, Trends of Engineering System Evolution Can help in identifying latent or hidden parameters Example: MPV for Tooth Brush Effectiveness of plaque removal Convenience Safety (no gum damages) Ability to remove plaque from under the gum Safety (limited conditions for pathogenic bacteria growth) [Simon Litvin Keynote , Japan Triz Symposium, 2011] Back 3 Main Parameter of Value: Chiquita Banana Back 3 Source: Simon Litvin Keynote , Japan Triz Symposium, 2011  What are the MPV? Pressurized kerosene Cooker flame Induction cooker stove What Stage are they in? Back 3  Question When you consider battery-life as the Main Parameter of Which of the following is Not likely to be in Stage 3? Value, which of the following is NOT in Stage 2? A. Table Fan A. Smart Watch B. Television B. Google Glass C. Digital Camera C. Tablet Computer D. Drone D. Smart watch Back 3  s When you overcome psychological inertia, you will see l e s e n d iliti ssib E po  1st Stage Analysis Overview ◦ The principle of action is applied to deliver its main function ◦ The system design and components are not refined ◦ Face intense competition with emerging and leading technologies Indicators The System is new and has a champion parameter, Stem cell research but has not yet entered the market Recommendations Major changes to system including its principle of operation are allowed Software beta version Must launch into the market as quickly as possible Focus on market where finding the champion parameter is most important BIOME car Competition Stiff but only one winner Wearable Technology, Rohini Vaze 10thJune 2014 https://www.slideshare.net/RohiniVaze/wearable-technology- report Back 3 e.g. Wearable Technology MPV MPVs Battery Life Ease of Continuously Use Cost Support as Health & Wellbeing Tracking Ease of Continuously Use Quality of Interaction Number of Steps to gain access/perform task Level of distraction Discreetness of alert Level of intrusion Extent of Privacy invasion Accuracy of Information  2nd Stage Analysis åF ­ åC const Overview å F ­­ ◦ Main parameter of value improves rapidly åC ­ ◦ Production volume growth ◦ Expand to new applications Indicators The system moves into mass production Differentiation between system application increases 3DGPS Printer The system gains functions that are closely connected to the main function Recommendations Optimization is the principal method of improving the system tablet pc Adapt the system to new fields or applications Adding components to gain more functions smart phones  2nd Stage: Differentiation Appears Research e.g. aortic valve Rapid prototyping e.g. Audi RSQ made with rapid prototyping industrial robots Rapid manufacturing e.g. wearable 3D printed shoes 3D Printer 2nd Stage Strategy tracks Contact in wearable connected space-time General Function model maps Contact Smart watch networks tracks Carbon Smart watch footprints Reference: https://www.dqindia.com/new-wearable-technology-can-sense- appliance-use-help-track-carbon-footprint/  åF const åC ¯ 3rd Stage Analysis åF ­ Overview åC const ◦ The system development slows enormously, despite increasing efforts å F ­­ åC ­ ◦ Production volume become stable ◦ One or more contradictions increase exponentially, hindering further growth of the function/cost ratio Indicators The system consumes highly specialized resources Supersystem components are designed to accommodate the system Computers, Variations differ from one another mainly by design The system acquires additional functions that are of little relevance to the main function Recommendations Reduce costs, develop service components, improve aesthetic design Cars Deep trimming, integration of alternative system or transition to supersystem Look for an Main Parameter of Value that is in an earlier stage to develop Mirrors Variations differ from one another mainly by design Mouse Car Microwave oven Mirror  4th Stage Analysis Overview ◦ The system functionality and revenue decline ◦ Production volume drops considerably ◦ More effective systems have reached their 2nd stage and are beginning to force the system out Typewriter Indicators Main function of the system loses its utility become non- utilitarian such as toy, souvenir, decoration or sport equipment, entertainment, etc The system continues to function only in highly specialized fields The system continues to function within a Supersystem Film camera Recommendations Look for the market where the System would be competitive Further reduce costs, develop service component, improve design Deep trimming and transition to supersystem Ink blotter Trends of Increasing Value and S-Curve Evolution åF ¯ åF const å C ¯¯ åC ¯ MPV 3rd stage åF ­ 4th stage åF ­ åCconst åC ¯ å F ­­ åC ­ 2nd stage åF ­ åC ¯ 1st stage Time Analog camera Digital camera Cruise ship as collectors artefact  You can wait a hundred years for enlightenment, or you can solve the problem in 15 minutes with these principles Genrich Altshuller  Modelling S-Curve Evolution MPV target Fundamental Limit of Capability Current System Time When a Product (Engineering System) goes to Stage 4: There will be an emerging product that takes on the function and is able to overcome the physical limitations of the previous engineering system. Can you think of a type of bicycle that has been able to overcome the Distance barrier? Distance Time Distance Mountain Bicycle Which stage is a Mountain bike in? Does it face a physical limitation on any of its Main Parameters? If yes, then, can you think of an emerging product. Time TRIZ Tool: S-Curve Analysis Transformative Business Plan Back 3 TRIZ Tool: S-Curve Analysis Lines of Evolution: Messaging System Back 3 Source: Valeri Souchkov, 2021 International Business Triz Conference TRIZ Tool: S-Curve Analysis & Entity-Object Field Transformative Patent Strategy: Future Washing Machine removes Cleaning Dirt tech Source: GEN3 Partners Back 3 TRIZ Tool: S-Curve Analysis S-Curve Analysis of Companies S1 Start-Up S2 Growth S3 Mature S4 Decline Source: Tan Eng Hoo, 2020 Back 3 Back 3 Problem Solving Lab Back Exercise: Map the S-Curve for a Watch as a Time Piece In 1762, Marine Chrono meter pocket watch was produced. A regular watch either as a time-piece or wristwatch is considered to be in stage 3. When we look at MPVs such as precision of time, there are bottlenecks that constrain the evolution of this product. Just like the analog Camera, it could, at some point be relegated to stage 4. 1. How would you compare compare the S-Curve for Wrist watch with that of a Smart Watch? 1910s watch https://www.pinterest.com/pin/ 286682332510811996/ 2. Predict the future trend for Smart watch where it blends in closer with resources from the supersystem. Use the reference site shown [Rohini, 2014], to find an evolutionary trend visualization. Reference: Wearable Technology, Rohini Vaze 10th June 2014 Source: https://www.slideshare.net/RohiniVaze/wearable-technology-report Exercise: Can we contrast the S-Curve for a Watch as Time Piece alongside that of a Smart Watch MPV MPV Note: The choice of MPV is key! MPV Exercise: Can you map the S-Curve for a Watch as Time Piece? Image Source: Beecham Research Exercise: Design the Future Wearable Assistant Wearable informs Field(s) ? Person device informs Assistant Person informs Assistant Person Activity informs Athlete Sensor Sensor Field Heart Pulse Mechanical Temperature Thermal Impact /Activity Mechanical Image Source: Beecham Research Voice Acoustic Stage 2: Finding the winning Main Parameter of Value MPV Battery Life Cost Ease of Continuously Use MPV Smart Watch Google Glass Quality of Battery Life Days 5 Hours (version 2) Interaction Cost US100 US1000 Number of Steps to Ease of Continuously 4 3 gain Use access/perform task Support as Health & 4 2 Level of distraction Wellbeing Tracking Discreetness of alert Level of intrusion Extent of Privacy invasion Accuracy of Information Back 3 TRIZ Tool: S-Curve Analysis & Entity-Object Field Design of Future Wearable Assistant Wearable informs Person device Sensor Field informs Decision Assistant Heart Pulse Mechanical Maker Temperature Thermal Impact /Activity Mechanical informs Voice Acoustic Activity Athlete Sensor Thinking informs Strategic Tool Leader Wearable Computer Evolution Field(s) ? tracks Contact in informs Carbon wearable connected wearable Footprints space-time Wearable maps Contact system networks Sensor Field Reference: Heart Pulse Mechanical tracks Carbon wearable [DQIndia Online, New wearable technology canThermal Temperature sense appliance Footprint use, help track carbon footprint, Oct 14 2015, Impact /Activity Mechanical https://www.dqindia.com/new-wearable-technology-can-sense- Voice appliance-use-help-track-carbon-footprint/ Acoustic  Source: White paper on Integrated Solutions for Wearable Products Image Source: https://ctech.ul.com/en/knowledge-center/integrated-solutions-for-wearable-products/ Competition Stiff but only one winner Wearable Technology, Rohini Vaze 10thJune 2014 https://www.slideshare.net/RohiniVaze/wearable-technology- report Back 3 e.g. Wearable Technology MPV MPVs Battery Life Ease of Continuously Use Cost Support as Health & Wellbeing Tracking Ease of Continuously Use Quality of Interaction Number of Steps to gain access/perform task Level of distraction Discreetness of alert Level of intrusion Extent of Privacy invasion Accuracy of Information Back 3 Autonomous Vehicles: as it approaches stage 3, changes to the super-system will be need ed to accommodate the ES Can we now model the transitions for the ES evolutions using Multi Screen Thinking Jayathilaka, W. A. D. M., Qi, K., Qin, Y., Chinnappan, A., Serrano-García, W., Baskar, C.,... & Ramakrishna, S. (2019). Significance of nanomaterials in wearables: A review on wearable actuators and sensors. Advanced Materials, 31(7), 1805921. PS Lab 2 Image Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/style/face-mask-coronavirus.html MPV An Example Time Ideal Mask(Interface) is no Mask(interface) Image Source: https://all3dp.com/innovative-3d-printed-face-mask-provides-sleep-apnea-sufferers-breathing-relief/  s When you overcome psychological inertia, you will see l e s e n d iliti ssib E po Autonomous Vehicles Logistics PROBLEM SOLVING LAB ES structure Component of ES Supersystem resources  MPU3422 SYSTEMATIC INNOVATION AND Trends of Engineering System Evolution Don’t follow trend, start it! INNOVATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING Semester 2 2018/2019 Tan Eng Hoo Back  States of Matter Trend solid liquid gas Bar Soap Liquid Soap Foam Spray Tractor Tyre Ancient Tyres Car Tyre  Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution Trend of S-curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Ideality Trend of Trend of Increasing Trend of Trend of Increasing Transition to the Completeness of Optimization Degree of Trimming Supersystem System Components of Flows Trend of Trend of Uneven Trend of Increasing Elimination of Development of Coordination Human System Components Involvement Trend of Increasing Controllability Trend of Increasing Dynamicity Ideal information must appear by itself, without spending time and effort in searching for it. Cybernetization is pushing the automation(computerization) of intellectual activity MPV ??? Watson : Cognitive understands me Systems Era Engages me Learns and Improves over time Programming Helps me discover Systems Era 3rd Generation Establishes trust Tabulating Operates in a timely fashion Systems Era 2nd Generation 1st Generation Based on Ted talk by : Manoj Saxena, Ted Talk https://www.slideshare.net/manojsaxena2/manoj-saxena-ted-talk-bending-the-knowledge-curve-with-cognitive-computing  Evolution of Technology Company MPV ??? Internet Company Microprocessor Company 3rd Generation Memory Company 2nd Generation 1st Generation Time What the trend of evolution best dictates the changes?  Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution Trend of S-curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Ideality Trend of Trend of Increasing Trend of Trend of Increasing Transition to the Completeness of Optimization Degree of Trimming Supersystem System Components of Flows Trend of Trend of Uneven Trend of Increasing Elimination of Development of Coordination Human System Components Involvement Trend of Increasing Controllability Trend of Increasing Dynamicity  Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution Trend of S-curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Ideality Trend of Trend of Increasing Trend of Trend of Increasing Transition to the Completeness of Optimization Degree of Trimming Supersystem System Components of Flows Trend of Trend of Uneven Trend of Increasing Elimination of Development of Coordination Human System Components Involvement Trend of Increasing Controllability Trend of Increasing Dynamicity Increased Transition to Supersystem tracks Person in wearable connected space-time General Function model maps Contact Smart watch networks Function model to track spread of virus tracks Carbon Smart watch footprints Function model to track interactions with supersystem Reference and Image Source: https://www.dqindia.com/new-wearable-technology-can-sense- appliance-use-help-track-carbon-footprint/ Mono-Bi-Poly (Sub-Trend) Poly Poly Poly Poly 2 Poly Poly Mono Bi Poly Combined Poly Single Two Multi camera camera camera ? smart smart smart phone phone phone Back 3  Basic Security Security attacks Server System threat Security Security attacks mirrors System with Virtual Host Server/system threat Proxy protects Learning system Intrusion Security attacks With Intrusion detection Server/system Detection threat guid system es Capability updates informs Learning Security System System informs  Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution Trend of S-curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Ideality Trend of Trend of Increasing Trend of Trend of Increasing Transition to the Completeness of Optimization Degree of Trimming Supersystem System Components of Flows Trend of Trend of Uneven Trend of Increasing Elimination of Development of Coordination Human System Components Involvement Trend of Increasing Controllability Trend of Increasing Dynamicity  Evolution of laundry cleaning (Trend of System Completeness and Trend of Elimination of Human Involvement) Control system for Pounding on Tub and Wringer washing Manual Washing Electricity Operated programmed rocks Wash board machine Machine Washing Machine Washing Machine acquires acquires acquires acquires Manual System Working Unit Transmission Energy Control System From labor intensive process to automate process  Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution Trend of S-curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Ideality Trend of Trend of Increasing Trend of Trend of Increasing Transition to the Completeness of Optimization Degree of Trimming Supersystem System Components of Flows Trend of Trend of Uneven Trend of Increasing Elimination of Development of Coordination Human System Components Involvement Trend of Increasing Controllability Trend of Increasing Dynamicity  Evolution of House Hold Chores Trend of Elimination of Human Involvement Automated Process Robot Services Household Chores Domestic Helpers Cleaning Services Trend of Transition to Supersystem Self-Service  Trend of Elimination of Human Efforts Human + Human Semi- Automated Human + automated Tool Tool Tool No Driver Partial Conditional High Full Automation Assistance Automation Automation Automation Automation Narayanan N Kulathu Ramaiyer | Inaugural Address | 18th December 2019 Trends of Engineering system evolution Triz-journal.com  Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution Trend of S-curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Ideality Trend of Trend of Increasing Trend of Trend of Increasing Transition to the Completeness of Optimization Degree of Trimming Supersystem System Components of Flows Trend of Trend of Uneven Trend of Increasing Elimination of Development of Coordination Human System Components Involvement Trend of Increasing Controllability Trend of Increasing Dynamicity  Plane Cylindrical Spheroid Combined Surface Surface Surface Surface Block Single sheet 3D pen, single 3D printer 3D printer 3D printer based line 2D Xerox dimension with 2D with 3D with design printing printing objects scanned scanned objects objects objects Printing Press, 500 1961 1984 Back 3  Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution Trend of S-curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Ideality Trend of Trend of Increasing Trend of Trend of Increasing Transition to the Completeness of Optimization Degree of Trimming Supersystem System Components of Flows Trend of Trend of Uneven Trend of Increasing Elimination of Development of Coordination Human System Components Involvement Trend of Increasing Controllability Trend of Increasing Dynamicity Trend of increasing degree of controllability Uncontrolled System with Programmable Self- Self- Self Self Reproducing System Feedback System learning Organising Sustaining System Uncontrolled system Controlled system Non-automated control Automated control Wired control Wireless control Direct control Remote control  Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution Trend of S-curve Evolution Trend of Increasing Ideality Trend of Trend of Increasing Trend of Trend of Increasing Transition to the Completeness of Optimization Degree of Trimming Supersystem System Components of Flows Trend of Trend of Uneven Trend of Increasing Elimination of Development of Coordination Human System Components Involvement Trend of Increasing Controllability Trend of Increasing Dynamicity Trend of Increasing Dynamicity PROBLEM: How to increase system controllability by making it more flexible and easily changeable Evolution of toothbrush handles (Trend of Increasing Dynamicity)  IR 4.0 and Future Design of AI Technology Monolith ruler Multi-joint ruler Elastic ruler Laser tape Narayanan N Kulathu Ramaiyer | Inaugural Address | 18th December 2019 Exercise: Phone Screen Inflatable Keyboard  Monolithic Three Block Separate Flexible Inflatable Blocks Keyboard Voice Panel Keyboard Activation Rigid program Flexible-Structure Flexible-Learning mode Talent-based Innovative program Lifestyle program  Monolithic Three Block Separate Flexible Inflatable Blocks Keyboard Voice Panel Keyboard Activation Learning on the go. Multi disciplines Flexible learning that Package life-goals as combined to allow Build on existing incorporates work- learning. Modified structure holistic individual. talent, to inflate based learning, service Every individual Rigid Monolithic of packaged Moving from capacities within life learning, industry links contributing to education model learning to suit traditional over learning context, beyond the rigidity of improved quality of emerging jobs specialty. Moving through recognition curriculum. In and out of life. beyond single of work university Learning as way of university degrees life. Monolithic Three Block Separate Flexible Inflatable Blocks Keyboard Voice Panel Keyboard Activation ? one size fits Off shipped to Edge Scalable Cloud- all Internet- premise satellite site computing based Services Services data with cheaper power  IR 4.0 and Future Design of AI Technology Partitioned Robotics as a Aligned Rigid Robot robots service Cobots  Evolution of Value Add Activities Trend of Elimination of Human Involvement Labor Intensive Activities Automated Activities Humanless Activities  Innovation is for Life Back Radar Charts and the prediction of MPVs Trends of Engineering Systems Evolution  Image Sources 1. https://designyoutrust.com/2020/03/historical-photos-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-that-show-what-a-global-pandemic- looked-like-in-the-1910s/ 2. https://www.marketplace.org/2020/03/09/china-covid-19-shut-in-tunes-in-to-the-world-via-radio/ 3. https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/02/21/thailand-imposes-total-ban-on-face-mask-exports 4. https://www.metmuseum.org/toah/works-of-art/25.8/ 5. https://worldhistory.us/american-history/a-quick-history-of-the-united-states-postal-service.php 6. https://www.2-clicks-stamps.com/article/postal-services-history-and-origins.html 7. https://online-shipping-blog.endicia.com/history-of-united-states-postal-service/ 8. https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aerospace/2015-07-08/swiss-postal-service-air-cargo-carrier-begin-drone- testing 9. https://xconomy.com/san-francisco/2014/06/16/the-future-of-work-plus-or-minus-e-mail/ 10. https://lob.com/blog/automating-your-direct-mail-program-know-these-8-technical-concepts/direct-mail-future 11. https://online-shipping-blog.endicia.com/history-of-united-states-postal-service/ 12. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/style/face-mask-coronavirus.html 13. https://www.pinterest.com/pin/107242034848217680/ 14. https://circulatingnow.nlm.nih.gov/2015/01/15/influenza-precautions-then-and-now/to-prevent-influenza-a108877/ 15. vandrico.com  References 1. Cai, M., Li, H., Shen, S., Wang, Y., & Yang, Q. (2018). Customized design and 3D printing of face seal for an N95 filtering facepiece respirator. Journal of occupational and environmental hygiene, 15 3, 226-234 2. Litvin, S., Keynote address Japan Triz Symposium, 2011 http://140.227.101.67/PRESENTATION/sympo2011/Pres- Overseas/EI01eS-Litvin_(Keynote)-110817.pdf 3. [Man, 2006] Source: https://triz-journal.com/unleashing-voice-product-voice-process/ 4. Narayanan N Kulathu Ramaiyer, Inaugural Address, 18th December 2019 5. Open sourceTriz 6. Course Notes of Dr T.S. Yeo, Level 1,Level 2, Level 3 TRIZ Training, MYTriz and InnoPlanet 7. Course Notes of Professor Dr Sergei Ikovenko, MATRIZ Level 1 and Level 2 Notes