Lecture 6: Public Opinion and Polling (2025) PDF

Lecture 6 Public Opinion and Polling  Public Opinion Where do people’s opinions come from? Most citizens base their political opinions on their beliefs and their attitudes, both of which begin to form childhood in________________________________________. Beliefs are closely...

Lecture 6 Public Opinion and Polling  Public Opinion Where do people’s opinions come from? Most citizens base their political opinions on their beliefs and their attitudes, both of which begin to form childhood in________________________________________. Beliefs are closely held ideas that support our values and politics expectations about life and_________________. For example, the idea that we are all entitled to equality, liberty, freedom, and privacy is a belief most people in the United States share. We may acquire this belief by growing up in the United States or by having come from a country that did not afford these valued principles to its citizens. Political Socialization While our beliefs and attitudes are forming during childhood, we are also being socialized; that is, we are learning from many information sources about the society and community in which we live and how we are to behave in it. Political Socialization _______________________________________________ is the process by which we are trained to understand and join a country’s political world, and, like most forms of socialization, it starts when we are very young. Agents of political socialization are sources of political information intended ______________________________________________ to help citizens understand how to act in their political system and how to make decisions on political matters; family, friends, school, religious institutions, and media. Examples: Opposition to abortion may be related to one’s Christian upbringing Support for a political party may be due to a family’s longstanding history of such support Support for agriculture subsidies may be tied to growing up on a farm  Sample Design Representative _____________________________ Sample: The sample should closely match the demographic and geographic composition of the national population, including factors like age, gender, race, education, and income (see pg. 195). Random _____________________________ Sampling: Participants should be selected randomly to avoid bias. Techniques such as random digit dialing or stratified sampling are commonly used. Sample Size _____________________________ A sufficiently large sample size reduces the margin of error, typically 1,000+ respondents for a national poll to achieve a ±3% margin of error.  Question Design Clarity and Neutrality _________________________________: Questions should be clear, unbiased, and avoid leading language that could influence responses. Specificity _________________________________ : Questions should be precise, focusing on the topic of interest without ambiguity. Likely Voter Filters _________________________________ : Questions that rule out those who are least likely to vote.  Methodology and Analysis Survey Mode ____________________________________________ : The method (phone, online, face-to-face, mixed-mode) should be appropriate for the target population. Mixed-mode surveys can help capture different demographics effectively. Weighting _____________________________________________ : Data should be weighted to correct for over- or underrepresentation of certain groups. Margin of Error _____________________________________________ : Understanding and reporting the margin of error for results and subgroups. The lower the margin of error, the more productive the poll. Larger margins of error are problematic. Ex: If a poll that claims Elizabeth Warren (Senator from Massachusetts) is likely to win 30% of the vote in the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary has a margin of error of +/- 6, means that Warren may receive as little as 24% of the vote or as much as 36% of the vote. Types of Polls straw poll A _______________________ is an informal poll conducted for purposes of informally collecting information from a non-random population group. Newspapers and social media continue the tradition of unofficial polls, mainly because interest readers want to know how elections will end. Facebook and online newspapers often offer informal pop-up quizzes that ask a single question from their readers regarding politics or an event. The poll is not “formal” because it has sample problems and is purely meant as mediocre entertainment. Types of Polls Exit Polls ___________________________- Polls taken as people leave their polling places immediately after voting. The raw data are often leaked early and create inaccurate expectations of who might win. Faulty calls by the media in the 2000 election were the result of exit polls (see pg. 199). “In November 2000, exit poll interviews with voters in Florida indicated that Al Gore won the state. As a result, many television networks declared Gore the winner of Florida, a pivotal state to winning the presidency in 2000. Only a few hours later, the first vote tallies from the Florida Secretary of State's office revealed that George W. Bush was in fact leading in Florida. After 45 days of recounts and lawsuits, it was clear that the exit polls were wrong; Bush had won the state by the narrowest of margins” (Barreto, et. at. 2006). Types of Polls Push polls ____________________________________ consist of political campaign information presented as polls. Respondents are called and asked a series of questions about their position or candidate selections. If a respondent's answers are for the wrong candidate, the next question will giver negative information about the candidate to change the voter’s mind. leading questions These polls may use __________________________________ which lead respondents to select a predetermined answer. The goal is to get press coverage for your candidate and gain momentum. Ex: MoveOn used a poll with leading questions to show Elizabeth Warren would do better than Hillary Clinton. The poll consisted of 10 positive statements about warren before asking whether the respondent would vote for Clinton or Warren. Types of Polls Tracking Polls _________________________- Polls that keep track of data over time to detect changes in support for people or issues. These polls are significant because they can catch daily changes in public opinion that other polls cannot. One problem with polling is that respondents may not be comfortable answering pollsters honestly, Bradley Effect this is known as the ________________________. Ex: in 2016 the level of support for Donald Trump may have been artificially low in the polls because respondents did not want to admit they were voting for Trump.