Ipsos Global Trends 2024 PDF

IPSOS GLOBAL TRENDS IN SEARCH OF A NEW CONSENSUS: FROM TENSION TO INTENTION. September 2024 Welcome to Ipsos Global Trends We launched the regular Ipsos Global Three key tensions have become more Trends study in 2014, to provide a acute over the past de...

IPSOS GLOBAL TRENDS IN SEARCH OF A NEW CONSENSUS: FROM TENSION TO INTENTION. September 2024 Welcome to Ipsos Global Trends We launched the regular Ipsos Global Three key tensions have become more Trends study in 2014, to provide a acute over the past decade, and three comprehensive view of how the world key constants explain perpetual feelings feels from a human perspective. people hold about world around them. Ten years on, we show what is unchanged and what has shifted in public Understanding people, their tensions attitudes and values. and intentions is crucial in mapping positive possible futures and opportunities ‘In Search of a New Consensus: from for both brands and policy makers. Tension to Intention’, our latest edition, unveils Ipsos’ refreshed framework of Through the data and expert analysis, nine Global Trends, which we introduce you’ll get a comprehensive picture of in the next section. These are based on today’s global citizen, and a view of the more than 50,000 interviews across 50 trajectory these trends are taking. markets representing three-quarters of We’re here to help you interpret how it the world’s population and 90% of the world’s GDP, which separates our report impacts your company or organisation. from any other “trend report” you might For more information contact: read. There is no better tool to [email protected]. understand the context of society, Ben Page, Global CEO, Ipsos markets and people. Each of the nine Trends we have identified is important on its own, but there are also clear inter-relationships that emerge when the trends are examined together. © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 2 Contents Click on a picture to be taken to relevant section of report Click on the Ipsos logo to return to the Contents 1 2 3 4 © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 3 INTRODUCTION © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 4  Executive Summary In thinking about how humanity is individualism, enhanced by new Since the start of this century Ipsos has reacting to change, context is king — choices over lifestyle and observed a widespread “loss of the but is always complex. Local and consumption. future”: a tension we see in this edition national culture have huge impacts. of Global Trends. Three-quarters (75%) More than eight in ten citizens across In search of a new consensus believe it is natural for each generation 50 global markets feel that the world is to have a higher standard of living than moving too fast. While this has always There is now a clear tension in many their parents. The challenge is that all been true, it feels even more so in an societies between the primary concerns over the world — especially in the US, age of mass data, social data and AI of different groups and a lack of LATAM and Europe — this seems less that has never existed before. consensus on how to achieve growth. and less likely for large groups of The unravelling of the post-World War people, who are experiencing “the loss Public pessimism and private Two world has impacted us all. The end of the future”. In this macro optimism of communism in 1991, and the entry of environment, where most people (75%) China into global markets, released huge also believe governments will do too Overall people feel overwhelmed by the global economic growth. Then little to help them in the years ahead, complex geopolitical, economic, and democracy and neo-liberal capitalism and often trust governments less than technology shifts they can see all came under pressure after the 2008 brands, populists have fertile support - around them, to say nothing of climate global financial crash as living standards as the demand for protection from change. But as we look beyond the stopped rising and people searched for outsiders rises. headlines, we see the human reaction who was to blame. All this was further to this uncertainty: an inward personal exacerbated — and inequalities were focus, with a flourishing sense of exposed — more recently through the Covid-19 pandemic. © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 5 Executive Summary In all this there are some clear It is also worth remembering some futures. Brands, organisations, and tensions: constants: nations can also act with similar intent, using tools like our Trends and Macro We are more global, yet more The world is always changing too fast: Forces to identify paths to alternative introspective: interest in global brands it is the human condition to feel that futures that build on public attitudes, and culture is more widespread than ten things are more dangerous, lower and where they are willing to be led. years ago despite rising geopolitical quality, or simply worse than they were tensions, but we also see a rising in the past. What does Ipsos Global Trends mean interest in just focusing on the self. for leaders? We always worry about data privacy: We are more nostalgic, yet more open- contradictory impulses to control or People’s choices are often economic, minded: nostalgic sentiment has risen share personal data have continued for but not only economic. Over the past across a swathe of markets but there a decade without resolution. decade, every trended market we has been significant movement from examine has shown an average double- the morals of yesteryear too: the world We are forever more optimistic closer digit increase in people saying they buy has continued to become more liberal. to home: even when we feel the world from brands that reflect their personal is on the brink, we are a lot more values. People want more from their We are more environmental, yet more certain that things are on the up for us governments, too. People will always fatalistic: the world is near consensus and our families. react to the change around them: the on the facts of climate change, but the data and analysis here is intended for public are unclear how to help without A strong theme this year is that among you to react to and plan with. clear leadership from brands and all these tensions, people are acting governments. with intent to take control of their © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 6 How we built the Trends for this edition Our framework is a product of over 50,000 interviews, resulting in collaboration between Ipsos colleagues over five million data points. We used across nearly 90 markets using Ipsos’ advanced analytics to identify 23 Theory of Change — a model for human values, that to a lesser or exploring how Macro Forces (the greater extent, unite humans across external context against which people the globe. These sit at the heart of our and organisations act), Shifts (changes robust and reliable data driven in attitudes and values across society, framework. markets and people) and Signals (visible real-world expressions of In this report we also explore and change observed at local and more present Signals and outline our updated surface levels) pull and push one Macro Force Framework. Equipped another, interact and cause tension, with this context, we have and ultimately allow us to identify subsequently identified nine global trends. Trends — which you can read at a glance on the next page. At Ipsos, our curiosity about society, markets, and people is what drives us — so at the heart of our trends sits the largest public survey in Ipsos history of © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 7 Ipsos Global Trends at a glance Globalisation Fractures asthe impacts of climate change become helping people navigate this ever more The Power of Trust While the world remains highly more evident. Focus on demonstrating complicated landscape with clear, As we are bombarded with information, interconnected, globalisation is seen as commitment at the organisation and trusted information and accessible we crave authentic messages from having winners and losers, both at the market level, but also help people feel solutions. trusted sources but have a harder time market level and personally. Focus on that they are contributing, too. figuring out who and what to believe. playing up local strengths as well as Retreat to Old Systems Focus on aligning your shared values global cooperation and scale. Technowonder As an escape to nostalgia is widely with those of your audience to build As technology becomes more appealing, some people also yearn to trusted relationships. Splintered Societies pervasive, there is a tension between revert to historical power structures Rising inequality leads to a splintering excitement for all the problem-solving around religion, politics, gender and Escape to Individualism of traditional structures with new tools, connection and entertainment more. Focus on the positive aspects of As the world feels overwhelming, ideologies and political allegiances technology can bring us and concerns the past but realise that not everyone people are focusing on one thing they emerging. People feel that businesses about privacy, job loss and potential for wants to return to it. can control — themselves. But there’s a and governments need to do more. misuse. Focus on identifying the tension between those who strive for Focus on commitment to our many benefits and reducing concerns. Nouveau Nihilism stature and those who focus more shared values worldwide to help lower As economic stresses are preventing inward. Focus on leveraging trusted temperatures at home. Conscientious Health many from realising their long-term relationships to help people express Health understanding is more holistic, dreams, a sometimes- but-not-always- their identities as they choose, even if Climate Convergence tied to both our physical and our mental fatalistic “live for the moment” attitude they choose historical norms. Worldwide investment in climate wellness. Tensions persist in terms of is rising. Focus on helping people resilience and mitigation is rising, who has access to care. Focus on bridge the gap between their aspirations and their realities. © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 8 THE MACRO CONTEXT © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 9  The Macro Context: Geopolitical and demographic instability Global Dynamics: Fragmentation, investment accelerating For countries in Europe, East Asia populism, and geopolitical tensions the energy transition and AI and and North America, the immediate automation advances, and a consequence of this demographic The fractures in globalisation are driven quickening drumbeat of discoveries, change is ageing and falling by an increasingly intermingled and from quantum computers and nuclear populations, which risks straining overlapping set of forces: the rise and fusion, to breakthrough therapies welfare and health systems in the fall of middle classes increases political and access to space. In 2023, 2,664 coming years and can sap younger polarisation and fuels radical populist objects were launched into orbit — generations of their hope for the and nationalist tendencies. These in a decade prior it was just 210, future. Business too will have to adapt turn contribute to geopolitical according to the United Nations — older consumers will form an conflicts, which can cause or Office for Outer Space Affairs. increasingly larger segment, at the accelerate community migration and expense of younger segments where population displacement. Migration can Demographic Changes: Fluctuating marketing was traditionally focused. then drive political opinion towards populations extremes inhabited by radicals, Others in Africa and Asia hope for populists and nationalists. This fosters The global total fertility rate — the an oncoming demographic dividend a global environment that challenges number of children expected to as their populations age into their the previous growth in open trade. be born to a woman over her lifetime economically productive prime: — hit 2.3 in 2023, barely above the 2.1 in Niger today, the average age of Innovation and Ambition: The upside replacement rate, according to the a citizen is just 14. of global challenges United Nations. What this means is that at some point this century we will likely Yet as we have seen in the past, tension hit “peak people” and the global breeds innovation: we see heavy population will start to decline. © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 10 The Macro Context: Climate change and diversity remodelling society Demographic Diversification: blurring or erasing of pre-defined The costs to states, businesses and candidates and contemplate how they Openness, inequality and diversity categories and the acceptance of individual taxpayers feel steeper still in recruit, train and retain a more diverse holding multiple orientations and a context of moderate to slow workforce from a shrinking talent pool. In some markets greater ethnic and identities point to a strength of economic growth, high levels of debt religious diversity, systemic health a splintering society; that it is more and the aftershocks of a global Almost a quarter of the way through inequality and increasing wealth open, even as some feel left behind. inflationary surge. the 21st century, alternative value disparity are challenging many of the structures are being built, particularly assumptions on which the most Combatting Climate Change: Changing Values: Societies being among younger generations. Yet it is an affluent societies have been based. Investment and innovation remade open question whether this will lead to a global convergence of lived Rising inequality is the chief driver: the The effects of climate change, loss of Falling birth rates, continued experience, or a slow drifting apart. wealth owned by the richest 0.01% of biodiversity and resource depletion are urbanisation and higher educational the population has doubled since 1995, now very tangible: combined economic achievement also drive change in our We can see signs of ongoing reaching nearly 12% today. In India, the losses from natural disasters in 2023 societies, changing the balance away liberalisation of values across the top 1% of the population hold 40.1% of stood at $380 billion, 22% above the from previously dominant ways of world, but also persistent differences the wealth, while the poorest half have 21st century average to date, per AON. living, working and socialising. in values and cultures, as well as some just 6.4%, according to a report from divides that have grown: one example the World Inequality Lab. The steps required to build these In Europe, North America and East is young men and young women’s views solutions are urgent and demand Asia, this has direct implications for of diversity and equity issues in the US Yet in fragmentation we also see a significant investment today if they are the balance of power between and Europe. higher level of identity acceptance. to have impacts on many countries’ employers and employees, driving Though sometimes controversial, the drive to "net zero" emissions by 2050. employers to consider a wider range of © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 11 The Macro Context: Technology, trust and the future Technology: The problem and disinformation; in more splintered and One common response is more the solution segmented societies, the scope of regulation: to take one example, in the these problems is multiplied. wake of global food inflation, retailers Technological change is at the centre and food manufacturers in some of both expectations and fears globally. Yet technology was vital in the global markets are facing new regulation Recent biotech developments, ranging response to the COVID-19 pandemic; designed to thwart what authorities from rapid vaccine development, rapid development of drugs and contact see as profiteering from rising prices. through GLP-1 drugs for the treatment tracing apps allowed us to address the of diabetes and other conditions, to the immediate crisis without dealing with That fact that the causes of recent use of generative AI to discover new the underlying social fragility it crises were clear ahead of time antibiotics are exciting not just for revealed. If anything, society today is naturally leads us to question the medics, patients and consumers, but more fragile than it was in 2019, ability of authorities to plan for the also for investors: the market value of meaning that the role of technology will future or learn lessons from the past. the Danish firm Novo Nordisk, which be more important still in future crises. This brings us to the central theme of manufactures the drugs Ozempic and this year’s Ipsos Global Trends: a turn Wegovy, is now larger than the entire Trust and Authority: Building for inwards to support the self. Danish economy. the future As you have just read, the macro The long-term impact of automation Recent global crises reveal both the context does not act in isolation, but and generative AI on employment and tremendous importance of trust and our framework on the next page work is one of the most controversial its fragility. While trust in many provides a starting point to discuss and areas of development. Another institutions has been low for decades, debate the consequences of the contentious area is the role generative today’s tensions may have led us into a external environment for your AI can play in creating and distributing more acute phase. organisation. © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 12 Ipsos’ Macro Forces The external context, against which people and organisations act, can be distilled into six Macro Forces and related themes. While they do not act in isolation, our framework is a starting point to discuss and debate the consequences of the external environment for your orga nisation. Economic Environmental Societies in flux Tech-celeration disparities emergencies Political splintering Wellness revolution Population Pervasive Rise & fall of Climate Rising nationalism Systemic fluctuation technology middle classes change & populism health inequality Community The immersive Employee Loss of Technology’s Breakthrough migration & frontier power shift biodiversity dark side therapies displacement Life stage & AI & automation Wealth disparity Sustainable Rethinking Integration family evolutions advances growth institutions of health & technology Greater ethnic Exponential data Rising cost of Resource Increasing The next & religious living depletion geopolitical pandemic diversity conflicts Identity Toll of technology Alternative Entrenched acceptance value structures inequality © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 13 TRENDS & FRAMEWORK INTRODUCTION © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 14 Our Trend Framework Our analysis has identified nine Trends, Some seek sanctuary in the warm glow and 23 Values that tell the story of of nostalgia for an imagined past, or by what it’s like to be human in 2024. trying to remake the world to be more like it was before. Others simply shrug The big picture is more forbidding their shoulders and focus on living in than it was previously — the the moment. international global order and our national societies both appear to be This has two important impacts: a under immense pressure, while climate more uncertain world for brands change has become a pressing enough which are expected to align with threat to unite much of global opinion. individuals’ divergent worldviews but also continue to deliver quality Technology is moving at a far faster products and customer service. pace than ten years ago. It is acting as an accelerant of further progress, For individuals, intentionality, bringing wonder and worry in near- autonomy and self-control become equal measure. the new status symbols as evidence that we can shape our own destinies in The responses we see from people are a more complex and unpredictable a turn inwards, focusing on the issues world. we feel we can most easily control, such as our health. © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 15 The contradictory world of human opinions Tensions exist within each of the Businesses and organisations must to buy from brands that reflect their Our nine Trends cover a broad range trends of course. Humans are learn how to navigate this complexity: personal values. In fact, every core of contexts from geopolitical to complicated and all of us are capable global organisations face unique market shows an increase compared deeply personal. That is relevant of holding conflicting ideas at the challenges. National ones can deal with with ten years ago. Yet half also say because people — your customers, same time. Psychologists call this one set of tough challenges, while they do not care about a brand's social citizens, audience, and patients — are “cognitive polyphasia“. global businesses have to navigate or ethical responsibility, so long as they dealing with issues across those much more diverse situations. make good products. How is a brand dimensions, too. For example, while the majority believe or a policy maker supposed to navigate that technology is destroying our There is widespread agreement that supporting people’s values, when Our closing Trends take us from the lives, a larger majority think that only brands can do good things for the such values are so internally and global to the human level. In response modern technology can solve our world and make money and that externally conflicted? to the chaos people see in the world future problems (71%). Understanding businesses have a “duty” to do good around them, we see a flourishing these tensions helps us see why people things for the world. However, trust People might not see the of individuality and an inward focus. behave differently in similar situations that business will achieve these "win- idiosyncrasies in their own attitudes, As the world spins out of people’s and gets at the rich nuances of wins" is lower, with eight in ten thinking but they see the conflict and tension control, they want to lean into human motivation. there needs to be more government around them. controlling their world: their physical regulation of corporate environmental and mental health, their identity, their Some tensions are generational within impacts. A similar number think “we Three in four say they see more conflict data. So understanding the values countries, some cross borders. are heading toward environmental between people who do not share the that drive people is crucial. Tensions about gender do both: eight in disaster” if we do not change our same values in their nation, and almost ten people in Pakistan agree that habits quickly. half see it in their own families. women's main role in society is to be good mothers and wives, but only 13% Over the past decade we have How does a leader lead in this in Portugal, and under 20% in Sweden seen double-digit increases in the environment and balance all the and Ireland say the same. proportion of people saying they tend tensions? © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 16  SY STE M A unique opportunity to Pessimistic quadrant Optimistic quadrant understand human values Autonomy Informed Technological Consumerism Worry Climate Asking questions about what it means to be both citizen and consumer across Wealth responsibility Redistribution 50 markets, we can use statistical analysis to uncover hidden connections and new relationships between people’s attitudes. Health Improvement Technological Brand Worship Our analysis has surfaced 23 human values — each compromising a set of Fatalism Global Outlook strongly correlated questions. By presenting these on a map, we can start to Health Self-Reliance N EG A TIV ITY P OS ITI VI TY understand how closely aligned people’s values are. The further apart two Experience Technological values are — for instance, Nativism and Global Outlook — the less likely a single Simplicity Optimism Seeking person might be to hold both values. Curiosity National Pride We have plotted the values onto four quadrants, oriented towards the system Anti- (top half of the map) or the self (bottom half of the map), and between a establishment Social Status negative or positive reaction to today’s world (left to right parts of the map). Living in the Moment Longevity Nostalgia The five most intense values that unite humans globally (highlighted in bold) are in the system part of the map but balanced between optimism and pessimism. The five least intense values — those that are less likely to unite Nativism Equity humans around the world (highlight in italics) — are all in the bottom half Traditionalism of the map. While these are less intense, they may show signs of greater growth in the future and need careful attention. Reactionary quadrant Ego quadrant SE LF The 23 values that underpin our nine Trends support a more intimate understanding of each, making our framework more actionable for you. Top 5 Values Bottom 5 Values © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 17  Globalisation Fractures Trend: Perceptions of globalisation have improved in many markets around the world over the past decade. While the world remains highly interconnected, the geopolitical environment has grown more contested. Increasingly, political leaders are asserting the primacy of their nation and its allies. Tension: Despite the development of a more positive view on the impacts of globalisation, geopolitical headwinds are promoting a focus on one's nation. Takeaway: Even global brands can and should play Values up their local ties — while also highlighting the Global Outlook benefits of their scale. National Pride © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 18 Globalisation Fractures Beyond peak globalisation The biggest tension in this trend is strategic sectors such as microchip As our Values map suggests, these 63% between slow improvements in how manufacturing, generative AI and rare viewpoints need not be adversarial; globalisation is perceived by the earth metal refining. indeed, there is a reasonably strong public and the tenor of international correlation between agreement in political debate as conflicts persist. Both tendencies are visible in the data: both questions. Another key factor is changes in the middle class, which is shrinking in Under the value of Global Outlook, we At present many in the global public agree “I feel very proud of many regions but growing in some. find 60% agreeing that globalisation is remain positive on globalisation my country” People often link these changes good for them personally. Agreement and also positive about their nation, (positive and negative) to the effects is highest among emerging markets in pointing to a future where an of globalisation, and those sentiments Africa as well as in China, Indonesia, optimistic view of globalisation and are leading to shifts in opinion. the Philippines and Vietnam, where the nation are self-reinforcing. four in five concur. Terms like “derisking” and “decoupling” dominate, with many companies Yet in the value of National Pride we outside of China launching “China +1” find a similar proportion (63%) saying strategies to diversify their supply they are very proud of their country. chain. As with perceptions of globalisation it is European nations who are less Further, the rebirth of industrial proud, with Germany at the foot of the strategy and stimulus has led to a table on 41%. search for national champions in © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 19 Globalisation Fractures Ten-year trend: Globalisation Fractures Improving public views of globalisation are one of % agree “globalisation is good for my country” the enduring stories from the past decade of Ipsos Global Trends. 100% 87% Across all types of markets, we have seen a slow rise in 81% the proportion of citizens who believe that globalisation 80% is good for their country. This is as true in China, which 65% has long been one of the most positive about global 62% trade, as it is in France where the public are typically the 60% 55% least enamoured with the term. The only exception in 57% the 19 markets we have tracked is Sweden, where still 49% 40% more than half are positive this year. 37% 35% This is a good news story against a backdrop of a more 20% polarised and competitive world — through a decade 24% of pandemic, war and adversarial political rhetoric, the proportion of people around the world who see the 0% 2013 2016 2019 2022 2023 2024 benefits of global economic connection has risen and remains higher than a decade ago. China US France Argentina Sweden Base: Varies between years. Data shown is based on 19 Comparable Markets that were questioned in both 2013 and 2024. For full methodology see ipsosglobaltrends.com. Comparable markets: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Great Britain, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, United States. Source: Ipsos Global Trends 2024 and Ipsos Global Trends 2014 © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 20 Globalisation Fractures Globalisation: good for Globalisation is good for me vs. good for my country me and the country? 100 Perspectives on the benefits of Kenya % agree “globalisation is good for me personally” globalisation, for the self and for 90 Nigeria the country, march in lockstep. Indonesia R² = 0.8964 Nearly all citizens see globalisation Vietnam Zambia as one tide that lifts — or sinks — 80 all boats. China Pakistan Chile India Mexico Brazil All nations where a minority say 70 Malaysia Singapore globalisation is good for either the Thailand Argentina KSA self or society are European or Spain Morocco North American. The French are 60 Türkiye South Korea the least enthused (although Italy support has risen over the past Egypt New Zealand decade) alongside the Belgians and 50 Croatians. Even the United States, Poland Great Britain a huge beneficiary of globalisation Germany Japan at a market level, has public 40 United States Belgium Canada scepticism about it and fits into this double negative category. France Croatia 30 By contrast, it is emerging markets 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 that are the most positive — the % agree “globalisation is good for my country” public in Nigeria, Kenya, Indonesia, Zambia and China, among others, Base: 50,237 adults surveyed in the markets shown between 15 February and 23 April 2024. Selected markets labelled. For full methodology see ipsosglobaltrends.com. are the most enamoured. Source: Ipsos Global Trends 2024 © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 21 Globalisation Fractures Driving Forces of Globalisation Fractures Signals The most impactful Macro Force themes affecting this trend The internet fragments Social networking firm Meta has announced it will not roll out its multimodal AI model virtual assistant in the European Union due to regulatory uncertainty. “Guochao” or “national trend” The American coffee company Starbucks has long tapped Increasing geopolitical Rising nationalism Rise and fall of into younger Chinese consumers’ more traditional cultural conflicts and populism middle classes interests. It recently opened another “intangible cultural heritage” concept store in Suzhou, China based on a traditional tea shop. Global brands, local pride Food conglomerate Nestlé has launched a special edition of one of its chocolate bars in Rio Grande do Sul province in Brazil. Its name has been changed from the Portuguese for “boy” to the equivalent word in the local dialect of Community migration Resource depletion Pervasive technology the province. and displacement © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 22 Globalisation Fractures Navigating a mosaic of globalised and deglobalised trade Thought Starters The global trade system is becoming an increasing source of tension — while the headwinds are leading Many local consumer brands in Asia have begun to a world that is more multipolar with fragmented and localised supply chains, much of world trade to outpace global competitors, offering better remains very closely integrated. How can you identify pricing, locally-tailored preferences, and greater and track areas of change to ensure your business remains resilient in a part-de-globalised world? agility in responding to rapidly changing local trends. Some local consumer brands have This tension also has implications for brand, with the balance of preference between global and local also successfully entered the global market, brands becoming tighter and more competitive. demonstrated their quality, and boosted How can you adjust your approach to match shifting consumer preferences? What unique value can their brand value. This development signals to you offer that combines the benefits of globalisation global brands the increasing necessity of with the appeal of local or national products? accommodating local tastes and market dynamics more than ever before.” — Irfan Setiawan, Ipsos in Indonesia © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 23  Splintered Societies Trend: Large income and wealth disparities are widely recognised as detrimental to society, yet in many countries they have widened over the past decade. The intensity of this feeling has resulted in heightened societal stress and a splintering of traditional structures, with new ideologies and political allegiances emerging. Tension: As societies worldwide age and begin to shrink, immigration will be the primary dividing line. Around the globe, about half feel that immigration has a positive impact on their society. But even Values more feel that there are too many immigrants. Wealth Inequality Takeaway: People also feel that businesses need to contribute more to society. Demonstrating this Nativism more clearly could help reduce the temperature Equity of people’s feelings about inequality worldwide and at home. © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 24 Splintered Societies Rising attention on our divisions Not only is there fracturing of change — will need to come from Almost three quarters also perceive 77% sentiment about globalisation, but business and government leadership. the economy of their country to be within borders and even households, rigged, while a similar proportion say there is tension as well. This year of Immigration continues to be a salient the wealthy in society should pay more elections has drawn greater attention divide as global movement rises, tax (76%) and that large income gaps to the divisions many see within driving the backlash found in our value are bad for society (77%). their societies. of Nativism. Seven in ten (71%) agree agree that having large that employers should prioritise hiring While these values focus on how our differences in income and Three quarters (76%) across the 50 local people over immigrants when societies are pulling apart, they also wealth is bad for society markets in this study agree there is jobs are scarce, making it one of the contain the seeds of how we might rising conflict between people who few remaining acceptable forms of pull together. hold different sets of values; half (46%) discrimination. say the same about differences of Families remain more united than opinion within their own families. Yet despite strong competition, wider society, and there is a clear role economic inequality remains one of for businesses to demonstrate their With a perception of heightened the most salient divides. Indeed, the commitment to society and to social conflict, our value of Equity speaks to value of Wealth Distribution is one of and political causes. The challenge is in experiences of discrimination based the top five strongest this year, and understanding which causes will unite. on gender, age, race and sexuality. across all waves of Global Trends But while it is a value many strive for, around three quarters have agreed that it is the value least likely to unite us having large differences in income and globally. Progress — as on climate wealth is bad for society overall. © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 25 Splintered Societies Who needs “There are too many immigrants in my country” immigration? % agree in the markets that are classified as the four population ageing groups as defined by the World Health Organisation It is often presented as an uncomfortable truth for many living in ageing societies that they may become more reliant on 71% 72% immigration over the coming decades. Yet our analysis 57% suggest that older societies are 52% less likely to agree that there are too many immigrants. Among younger societies — those which are defined by the WHO as ageing or not yet ageing (with less than 14% of their citizens aged over 65), seven in ten agree there are too many immigrants, perhaps because economic pressures are higher in many of these societies. Not yet ageing Ageing Aged Super-aged Less than 7% aged 65+ Between 7 and 14% aged 65+ Between 14 and 21% aged 65+ 21% or more aged 65+ Base: 50,237 adults surveyed in the markets shown between 15 February and 23 April 2024. For full methodology see ipsosglobaltrends.com. Source: Ipsos Global Trends 2024, World Health Organisation, World Bank, Statista © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 26 Splintered Societies Immigration issues Immigration has a positive impact vs. There are too many immigrants in… Globally, 62% agree there are too 80 many immigrants in their MORE POSITIVE ABOUT IMMIGRATION MIXED VIEWS country, while 48% agree that Zambia immigration has a positive Philippines Brazil India impact on national society. 70 % agree immigration has a positive impact New Zealand Nigeria Pakistan Vietnam Just two countries — New Singapore Australia Kenya Zealand and Vietnam — are doubly on society in my country 60 Spain positive, seeing immigration as a boon for their society and Ireland Great Britain Thailand Egypt disagreeing that there are too Canada United States Morocco many immigrants. By contrast, in 50 Malaysia Switzerland almost half of the markets (22) Sweden Argentina Portugal the public are doubly negative, South Korea Romania Italy Germany including much of Europe. 40 Denmark Indonesia South Africa Israel Many more are somewhere in Peru Poland Mexico France between — in 18 markets, Japan Belgium Chile including the United States, 30 Croatia Czechia Türkiye Great Britain and Brazil, a Colombia majority are agreed on the Netherlands LOWER SALIENCE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT IMMIGRATION positive social impacts of 20 Bulgaria immigration, yet also feel that 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 there are too many immigrants in % agree there are too many immigrants in my country their country at present. Base: 50,237 adults surveyed in the markets shown between 15 February and 23 April 2024. For full methodology see ipsosglobaltrends.com. Source: Ipsos Global Trends 2024 © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 27 Splintered Societies Driving Forces of Splintered Societies Signals The most impactful Macro Force themes affecting this trend Widening access to financial services The Spanish Neobank Ikualo allows immigrants in Europe who might lack the types of documentation typically required to access financial services. Its in-app identity verification service allows people to open an account with only a passport. Refugees for the climate transition Population fluctuation Increasing geo- Greater ethnic and political conflicts religious diversity In the Netherlands an organisation called The Switch has set up a programme to recruit and train refugees to overcome a significant shortfall in skilled engineers and workers for the energy transition. Democratising information A new chatbot in India provides Indian farmers with real-time market information about crop prices, tackling knowledge asymmetry and helping them to negotiate better deals for Systemic health Climate change Wealth disparity their produce with purchasers. inequality © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 28 Splintered Societies How to build and maintain mass appeal in a centrifugal era? Thought Starters Many societies in our study appear to be centrifugal — individuals do not share cultural and economic In Latin America, decades of polarization between goals but instead seek out brands and experiences that align with their own personal values and beliefs. between left- and right-wing left- and right-wing governments, governments, exacerbated How can your brand build multi-faceted associations exacerbated by corruption, byhave corruption, left no room have for leftcentrist no room for with consumers to help them appeal to a broader audience? centrist options. options. PersistentPersistent lack of job lack opportunities, of job opportunities, education access, education monetaryaccess, poverty, monetary and In this context, the moments that still unite us assume even greater importance. What can you take poverty, and violence haveviolence fragmentedhavesocieties. fragmented Increasing from these moments to create content that reaches societies. Increasing immigrant flows seekingimmigrant better lives flowsaddseeking tension across divides? better lives among locals add due tension to scarce amongopportunities. locals due to There is also a challenge for organisations internally scarce To evolve, opportunities. Latin AmericanTo evolve, societies Latin must American — how can you engage in genuine, transparent communication with employees that reflects their societies diversity, embrace must embrace equity,diversity, and inclusion equity,(DEI) and values and is also mindful of the diverse perspectives inclusion in our new(DEI) multicultural in our newreality.” multicultural reality.” within your staff? Girlado, Ipsos — Luis Giraldo, Ipsos Columbia in Colombia © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 29  Climate Convergence Trend: The macro environment for climate is changing rapidly as worldwide investment in renewables continues to rise and the impacts of global warming become more evident. Our data reflects this: globally, views on the importance of climate action are converging, and have increased in intensity over the past ten years. The key question now is how far — and how fast — people are willing to change their daily lives to reach shared goals. Tension: While outright denial and scepticism is rare, there are real differences between a core for whom climate is the lead issue and the wider population who flirt with disengagement. Takeaway: Brands should demonstrate commitment because people expect companies Values to help and don’t think they’re doing enough. But people also need help to feel like they are Climate Responsibility contributing to solutions — through everything from policy to programming to packaging. © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 30 Climate Convergence Dividing lines emerge in the new climate consensus As in previous editions, a large majority But the debate of how far and how fast example, 58% think it is important that 72% – 80% – of the global public agree we’re we decarbonise — and who bears the people in their country switch to headed for environmental disaster costs — has even greater potential to electric motors in cars, falling to 37% without rapid change. An issue that is be polarising. in the US and Germany. becoming clearer and more obvious through increases in number and On the one hand, there is a widespread At Ipsos, our model for building a intensity of severe weather events, feeling that companies are not playing sustainable future begins with say they are already doing and in terms of how populations are their part — 77% across the 50 markets understanding the “me” agenda, before all that they can to save the shifting in response, contributing to say companies do not pay enough considering the context of “my world” environment the shifts seen in the more geopolitical attention to the environment, and and then the impacts on “the world”. trends. eight in ten (81%) say companies’ Our data suggests that while climate impacts on the environment should be remains a top concern, it is often This caps a remarkable convergence in subject to closer government control. superseded by other issues focussed global public opinion over the past on citizens’ “me” agenda — including decade, across markets and On the other, the public themselves health and wealth inequality. generations. Where the debate was tend to think they are doing enough. once on whether climate change was Almost three quarters say they are As the salience of climate occurring, now it is focused on the already doing all they can to save the responsibility as a human value significant trade-offs inherent in environment, meaning they may be continues to wax and wane — albeit at meeting net zero goals. ill-disposed to consider more (or more a high level — governments and effective) climate action, especially businesses will have to lead rather in the face of cost pressures and an than follow opinion. unpredictable world. To give one © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 31 Climate Convergence Ten-year trend: Climate Convergence Attitudes towards climate and the environment have % agree “we are headed for environmental disaster unless we change our habits quickly” shown one of the strongest shifts we have recorded over a decade of Ipsos Global Trends. Between 2014 and 2024 34 ppt 12 ppt the world has moved from questioning whether climate 100% change is really happening, to debating how best we 91% meet binding global targets for carbon emissions. 83% This shift is exemplified by the spread in agreement that “We are headed for environmental disaster unless we 80% 76% change our habits quickly”. A decade ago there was a 34- 75% point gap between China and the US, two of the most 75% divergent markets on this question. By 2024, this gap has 71% shrunk to 12 points. While China’s enthusiasm has waned 59% 60% somewhat, the main shift has been in attitudes in the US, Great Britain, and other richer markets. 57% This question also shows lack of differentiation between the generations — regardless of birth cohort, eight in ten 40% people agree we are headed for climate disaster without 2013 2016 2019 2022 2023 2024 drastic action. Germany GB China US Base: Varies between years. Data shown is based on 19 Comparable Markets that were questioned in both 2013 and 2024. For full methodology see ipsosglobaltrends.com. Comparable markets: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Great Britain, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, United States. Source: Ipsos Global Trends 2024 and Ipsos Global Trends 2014 © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 32 Climate Convergence Mixed EV enthusiasm It is important people in my country switch to electric motors in cars While markets agree that 90 India something ought to be done China about climate change, 80 Thailand disagreement is rife when it % agree it is important people in my country Brazil Türkiye comes to the types of action that 70 Mexico are important. switch to electric motors in cars Indonesia Malaysia Electric vehicles are a key 60 South Korea example: decarbonising personal Spain Italy transportation is a significant 50 Great Britain step towards net zero. Japan 40 Canada Yet the importance of this shift Germany varies dramatically. While Indian United States 30 and Chinese people are among France the most convinced of the case Czechia for EVs, less than half agree in 20 much of Europe and in the US. 10 Markets in world top twenty Agreement decreases in line auto producers highlighted with the number of vehicles per 0 1,000 people in each market — 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 suggesting the conversion to EVs will be more difficult in markets Overall vehicles per 1,000 people that already have a lot of cars. Base: 50,237 adults surveyed in the markets shown between 15 February and 23 April 2024. For full methodology see ipsosglobaltrends.com. Source: Ipsos Global Trends 2024. Cars per 1,000 people statistics from multiple sources, via Wikipedia © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 33 Climate Convergence Driving Forces of Climate Convergence Signals The most impactful Macro Force themes affecting this trend Recognising the carbon footprint of the internet In Germany a new energy efficient search engine, Ecosia Browser, was launched on Earth Day this April. The browser promises to produce 25 watt hours of renewable energy for each daily user. Carbon negative jewellery Climate change Resource depletion Sustainable growth British brand Skydiamond has released a new range of fine jewellery that features carbon-negative diamonds made from atmospheric carbon dioxide. Mandatory carbon calculator In Abu Dhabi the Department of Culture and Tourism has enforced a mandatory carbon calculator for all Alternative value Loss of biodiversity Community migration hotels in the city. It tracks fuel, gas, electricity and water use and converts it into a CO2 equivalent score structures and displacement to enable comparison between hotels. © Ipsos | Global Trends | Sept 2024 | Version 1 | Public 34 Climate Convergence The public are looking for political and economic leadership on climate to prove the path to net zero Thought Starters Incidents of greenwashing and the steep path for decarbonisation are making the public increasingly cynical about the world’s ability to reach net zero. Brazil’s climate paradox is evident in its How can your organisation highlight positive significant strides towards reducing examples to inspire fresh enthusiasm among citizens and consumers? deforestation and setting ambitious emissions targets, juxtaposed with ong