History and Politics of European Integration (Prof. Stefano Pilotto) 2024

The Western Countries involved in the issue ▪ France (the failure of French foreign policy in Egypt and in Tunisia: the need to replace with a presence in Lybia); ▪ UK (the need to be prese...

The Western Countries involved in the issue ▪ France (the failure of French foreign policy in Egypt and in Tunisia: the need to replace with a presence in Lybia); ▪ UK (the need to be present in the Mediterranean, in order to balance the new active behaviour of France); ▪ United States (The need to be present in the conflict in order to compensate the initiative of France; moreover, the war against the international terrorism costed 4400 billions Dollars –Second World War costed 4100 billions Dollars); ▪ Italy (the country having the most important geopolitical position in the Mediterranean); ▪ Others. Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The European Union Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  http://www.herodote.net/Cartes/CarteAH_France_300_1.png Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The borders of Soviet Russia after the first world war (Treaty of Riga of the 12th of March 1921) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 1923 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Beginning of the Second World War Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 1939-1942  1944 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  1945 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 1945-1989: the Cold War Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Europe after 1992 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  North Stream Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Tap Project Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The Ukrainian crisis from the 27th of November 2013 to today ▪ 27th of November 2013: meeting in Vilnius (Lituania) between the European Union and Ukraine: Ukraine decided not to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union because three days before Ukraine made a deal with Russia (Russia lent 15 billions of Dollars to Ukraine and asked Ukraine not to proceed towards the European Union); ▪ The European Union and part of the Ukrainian society reacted; ▪ Growing struggles in Kiev between the political power and the popular opposition gathered in the Maiden Square; ▪ 21st of February 2014: agreement between the opponents and the Ukrainian government under the assistance of the European Union and the Russian Federation: the extremists of Maiden Square did not accept the agreement and occupied the public offices, increased the conflicts against the police and forced President Yanukovich to leave the country; ▪ Provisional government in Kiev, waiting for new political elections; ▪ 16th of March 2014: the Russian Federation, after a local election in Crimée, annexed Crimée in the Russian Federation; ▪ Growing crisis in the eastern side of Ukraine (Donbass or New Russia), an area populated by Russian citizens supporting the Russian Federation; ▪ May 2014: presidential elections in Ukraine (the eastern side of Ukraine did not participate): Petro Poroshenko new President of Ukraine. He was not recognized as President neither by east Ukraine, nor by the Russian Federation; Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The Ukrainian crisis from the 27th of November 2013 to today ▪ May 2014: the eastern regions of Ukraine proclaimed their autonomy and their wish to be annexed by the Russian Federation; ▪ June 2014: Ukraine (Poroshenko) signed an Association Agreement with the European Union; ▪ Some Russian troops were deployed in the eastern regions of Ukraine; ▪ Russia was excluded by the G8 Summit; ▪ 17th of July 2014: an aircraft Malaysia Airlines was hit and fell in the eastern regions of Ukraine: mutual accusations from both sides of Ukraine; ▪ The European Union decided to adopt economic sanctions against Russia; ▪ Russia reacted by signing an agreement with China on energy and adopting economic sanctions against European agricultural products; ▪ 5th of September 2014: First Minsk Agreement to cease fire; ▪ 16th -17th of October 2014: Asem Meeting in Milan; ▪ 24th of October 2014: speech of Vladimir Putin in Soci, in front of the Valdaï Club; ▪ 26th of October 2014: parlamentary elections in Ukraine without the participation of the eastern regions and Crimée: victory of the Popular Front of Arsenyl Yatsenyuk and missed victory of Petro Poroshenko; Moscow declared that the elections were not valid; Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The Ukrainian crisis from the 27th of November 2013 to today ▪ 2nd of November 2014: local elections in the eastern regions (Donbass); those elections were considered not valid by western Ukraine and by the European Union, but they were considered valid by the Russian Federation; ▪ 8th of November 2014: during the celebrations for the 25th anniversary of the fall of Berlin Wall Mihail Gorbaciov declared: “The world is close to a new Cold War, which, according with some observers, has already begun”; ▪ November 2014: APEC Summit in Bejing and G20 Summit in Brisbane: Russia was progressively isolated and reacted (Putin left the Brisbane Summit before the end); ▪ 11th of February 2015: Second Minsk Agreement between western Ukraine, eastern Ukraine (Popular Republic of Donetsk and Popular Republic of Luhansk) and Russian Federation; ▪ Conflicts between the eastern regions (Donetsk and Luhansk), on one side, and the Kiev government, on the other side, went on and they provoked almost 10.000 deaths and 20.000 injured people; ▪ The authorities of Donbass prepared their own passports and those passports were considered valid and legitimate by Moscow on the 18th of February 2017. Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The First Minsk Agreement (5th of September 2014) It was signed by the representatives of Ukraine, of the Russian Federation, of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), and of the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) to stop the war in Donbass region of Ukraine; it had 12 Key points and it was aimed: 1) To ensure an immediate bilateral ceasefire; 2) To ensure the monitoring and verification of the ceasefire by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE); 3) To provide decentralization of power, through the adoption of an Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self- Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts". 4) To ensure the permanent monitoring of the Ukrainian-Russian border and verification of them by the OSCE with the creation of security zones in the border regions of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. 5) Immediate release of all hostages and illegally detained persons. 6) A law preventing the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that have taken place in some areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. 7) To continue the inclusive national dialogue. 8) To take measures to improve the humanitarian situation in Donbass. 9) To ensure early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self- Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts". 10) To withdraw illegal armed groups and military equipment as well as fighters and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine. 11) To adopt a program of economic recovery and reconstruction for the Donbass region. 12) To provide personal security for participants in the consultations. In January 2015, a new full-scale fighting had broken out again and made it not possible to respect the First Minsk Agreement. Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The Second Minsk Agreement (11th of February 2015) The leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany agreed to sign a package of measures to reduce the ongoing war in the Donbass region of Ukraine: 1) Immediate and full bilateral ceasefire. 2) Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides. 3) Effective monitoring and verification regime for the ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons. To be carried out by the OSCE from day one, using all necessary technology such as satellites and radar. 4) From day one of the withdrawal begin a dialogue on the holding of local elections. 5) Pardon and amnesty by banning any prosecution of figures involved in the Donetsk and Luhansk conflict. 6) Release of all hostages and other illegally detained people. 7) Unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to the needy, internationally supervised. 8) Restoration of full social and economic links with affected areas. 9) Full Ukrainian government control will be restored over the state border, throughout the conflict zone 10) Withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory. To be monitored by the OSCE. All illegal groups to be disarmed. 11) Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with adoption of a new constitution by the end of 2015. A key element of which will be decentralization (taking into account the special features of certain parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with representatives of those regions), and adoption of permanent laws on the special status of those areas. On the 31st of January 2017 at Avdiyivka, separatists shelled Ukrainian positions with mortars, artillery and grads (truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers). OSCE denounced a severe violation of Minsk Agreements. Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Volodymir Zelenski President of Ukraine since the 20th of May 2019 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The issue of NATO Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The issue of NATO Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The issue of NATO Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  ? ? ? ? The West and the rest of the world Stefano Pilotto, 2024  ? ? ? ? The Shangai Cooperation Organization Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Kiev Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Russia and EU in the last years ▪ The EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement; ▪ The political cooperation between economic interests and political transition towards democracy, supremacy of law, respect of human rights and protection of ethnic minorities; ▪ The key issue of energy market; ▪ The new Russian rearmament (Putin Speech of 20th of February 2012, Putin Speech of the 1st of March 2018). Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The political cooperation between economic interests and political transition towards democracy, supremacy of law, respact of human rights and protection of ethnic minorities ▪ The question of Russian democracy; ▪ The need for Moscow to adopt a pragmatic approach; ▪ The political problems in selected single areas (Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria,…); ▪ Kaliningrad. Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (2008-2018) ▪ There was a negociation after the EU-Russia Meeting in Khanty Mansinsk (26th of June 2008), the stop after the crisis in Georgia (Summer 2008) and the restarting of the negociation in Autumn 2008. ▪ Many issues on the table (Energy policy, climate change, Russian WTO accession, space policy, new visa policy, Caucasus issues, Transnistria, Kossovo, Iran, Middle East, the question of new NATO bases in Poland and in Czech Republic, the tensions in some central and eastern European countries like Estonia, Poland, Ukraine). Stefano Pilotto, 2024 The problem of Transnistria in Moldova 1991- Moldova reached its independence from Soviet Union; At the same time Transnistria separated itself from the Republic of Moldova and confirmed its loyalty to Russia; 50,000 Moldovan nationalists “invaded” Transnistria, but violence was stopped by the intervention of the Russian Army; 1992 – Violence started again. In July Yeltsin and Snegur reached an agreement with a ceasefire and border lines; 1994 – Agreement about the Russian troops withdrawal out of Transnistria, but the Russian government did not ratify it. Russian troops did not leave; The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the U.S. and EU imposed restrictions against Transnistria, not supporting its cause for independence; May 2004 - Russia did not remove weapons of its Army stationed in Transnistria, as required under the timetable set forth in the 1999 Istanbul Agreements, and this process remained stable throughout 2004; As the Transnistrian problem will continue to exist, it will obstacle the accession of Moldova in the EU. Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  North Stream Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Tap Project Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Caspian Sea energy problem Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Crisis in Middle East Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Fonte: World Energy Outlook 2017 (http://www.iea.org/weo2017/) Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Fonte: World Energy Outlook 2017 (http://www.iea.org/weo2017/) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Fonte: World Energy Outlook 2017 (http://www.iea.org/weo2017/) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: World Energy Outlook 2019 (https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: World Energy Outlook 2019 (https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: World Energy Outlook 2019 (https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: World Energy Outlook 2019 (https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: World Energy Outlook 2019 (https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: World Energy Outlook 2019 (https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019) Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Chinese Plan (September 2020) Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The issue of NATO Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The recent disarmament process between United States of America and Russia ▪ START (Strategic Arms Reduction Talks) II Treaty (3rd of January 1993): further reduction of the strategic (i.e. long range) nuclear warheads (3.500 for the United States of America before 2003 and 3000 for Russia before 2005); it was ratified on the 26th of January 1996 by the Senate of the United States and by the Russian Duma on the 14th of April 2000 but with a binding condition: ABM Treatry should have not been changed! On the 13th of December 2001 the United States announced (six months before the expire of the ABM treaty as required by law) that they would withdraw from the ABM Treaty which was going to expire in 2002 (thirty years from 1972); then Russia decided to withdraw from START II Treaty on the 14th of June 2002; ▪ On the 28th of April 2000 the United States of America proposed to change the ABM Treaty, to allow their new double defense programme: the NMD (National Missile Defense) and the TMD (Theater Missile Defense); on the 13th of June 2002 the United States of America effectively withdrew from ABM Treaty; ▪ SORT Treaty (Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty), signed in Moscow by the United States of America and Russia on the 24th of May 2002: further reduction of the strategic nuclear warheads to a maximum level of 1700 – 2200. That Treaty was finally replaced by the New START Treaty; ▪ New START Treaty, signed in Prague by the United States of America and Russia on the 10th of Aprile 2010: further reduction by 30% of the strategic nuclear warheads planned by SORT Treaty: both countries must not have more than 1550 strategic nuclear warheads each. The duration was ten years. In 2020 it should expire, but it is expected to last at least until 2021. Stefano Pilotto, 2024  History and Politics of European Integration ▪ The beginning of the European integration process: from Jean Monnet to the Rome Treaties (1949 – 1957); ▪ The development of the European Communities from Rome Treaties to the Fall of the Berlin Wall (1957 – 1989); ▪ The Fall of the Berlin Wall and the new opportunities between east and west in Europe: the Maastricht Treaty and the enlargement process (1989 – 2005); ▪ The failure of the European Constitution and the crisis of the European integration process (2005 – 2008); ▪ The world economic and financial crisis and the consequences for the European Integration Process (2008 – 2011); ▪ The Arab Springs and the crisis around the European Union: Libya, Syria, Ukraine (2011 – 2014); ▪ The threat of the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq, the issue of refugees’ immigration in Europe (2014 – 2019); ▪ Europe and the new silk road towards China; ▪ Europe and the world in front of the Coronavirus pandemic of 2020; ▪ The conflict in Ukraine in 2022: the world in front of a new Cold War; Europe between the influence of the United States of America and the economic cooperation Stefano Pilotto, 2024 with Russian Federation. Stefano Pilotto, 2024 The Japanese expansion at the beginning of the 20th century Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The Japanese expansion in the 30s years Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The maximum Japanese expansion during Second World War Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Kim il Sung (1912-1994) Kim Jong il (1941-2011) Kim Jong un (1984-vivente) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The old Silk Roads Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The trips of Marco Polo Stefano Pilotto, 2024  The new Silk Road (One Belt one Road) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: Corriere della Sera (13 maggio 2017)  The trains… Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: Corriere della Sera (10 settembre 2018)  Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2019) Stefano Pilotto, 2024  History and Politics of European Integration ▪ The beginning of the European integration process: from Jean Monnet to the Rome Treaties (1949 – 1957); ▪ The development of the European Communities from Rome Treaties to the Fall of the Berlin Wall (1957 – 1989); ▪ The Fall of the Berlin Wall and the new opportunities between east and west in Europe: the Maastricht Treaty and the enlargement process (1989 – 2005); ▪ The failure of the European Constitution and the crisis of the European integration process (2005 – 2008); ▪ The world economic and financial crisis and the consequences for the European Integration Process (2008 – 2011); ▪ The Fiscal Compact agreement of 2012 and the difficulties to erase the europessimism (2011 – 2018); ▪ The crisis around the European Union: Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Isis, immigration (2011 – 2016); ▪ The new program of the EU Commission of Ursula von der Leyen: green deal and digital revolution (2019); ▪ Europe in front of the Coronavirus pandemic and the Next Generation EU (2020 – 2022); ▪ The conflict in Ukraine and the new cold war between the Western countries and the Russian Federation with the BRICS movement (2022 - 2023). Stefano Pilotto, 2024  History and Politics of European Integration ▪ The beginning of the European integration process: from Jean Monnet to the Rome Treaties (1949 – 1957); ▪ The development of the European Communities from Rome Treaties to the Fall of the Berlin Wall (1957 – 1989); ▪ The Fall of the Berlin Wall and the new opportunities between east and west in Europe: the Maastricht Treaty and the enlargement process (1989 – 2005); ▪ The failure of the European Constitution and the crisis of the European integration process (2005 – 2008); ▪ The world economic and financial crisis and the consequences for the European Integration Process (2008 – 2011); ▪ The Fiscal Compact agreement of 2012 and the difficulties to erase the europessimism (2011 – 2018); ▪ The crisis around the European Union: Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Isis, immigration (2011 – 2016); ▪ The new program of the EU Commission of Ursula von der Leyen: green deal and digital revolution (2019); ▪ Europe in front of the Coronavirus pandemic and the Next Generation EU (2020 – 2022); ▪ The conflict in Ukraine and the new cold war between the Western countries and the Russian Federation with the BRICS movement (2022 - 2023). Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: WTO and UNCTAD (https: //www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr862_e.htm) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: WTO Secretariat estimates (https: //www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr862_e.htm)  Source: OpenSky network and WTO Secretariat calculations (https: //www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr862_e.htm) Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Source: WTO Secretariat estimates (https: //www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr862_e.htm)  The support of the European Union The SURE (Support to mitigate the Unemployment Risks in an Emergency) against the unemployment: 100 billions Euro; The Bank of European Investments (BEI): 200 billions Euro for the companies; The European Stability Mechanism: 240 billions Euro only for interventions on health emergency; The European Recovery Fund: 750 billions Euro. Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Source: EU Commission 2020 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  World GDP Stefano Pilotto, 2024 OECD Economic Outlook, May 2021 (https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/)  Global increase of the heat: 1,5 °C more in 2030? Fonte: Ispi, 1° novembre 2021 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Global Pollution: huge increase Fonte: Ispi, 1° novembre 2021 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Permanent members Permanently Invited G 20 Invited in 2020 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  How much counts the G20 ▪ 60% of the population of the world; ▪ 60% of the export of the world; ▪ 72% of the world financial aids; ▪ 78% of the world GDP ; ▪ 74% of the CO2 world emissions; ▪ 84% of the world defense expenditure. Stefano Pilotto, 2024  History and Politics of European Integration ▪ The beginning of the European integration process: from Jean Monnet to the Rome Treaties (1949 – 1957); ▪ The development of the European Communities from Rome Treaties to the Fall of the Berlin Wall (1957 – 1989); ▪ The Fall of the Berlin Wall and the new opportunities between east and west in Europe: the Maastricht Treaty and the enlargement process (1989 – 2005); ▪ The failure of the European Constitution and the crisis of the European integration process (2005 – 2008); ▪ The world economic and financial crisis and the consequences for the European Integration Process (2008 – 2011); ▪ The Fiscal Compact agreement of 2012 and the difficulties to erase the europessimism (2011 – 2018); ▪ The crisis around the European Union: Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Isis, immigration (2011 – 2016); ▪ The new program of the EU Commission of Ursula von der Leyen: green deal and digital revolution (2019); ▪ Europe in front of the Coronavirus pandemic and the Next Generation EU (2020 – 2022); ▪ The conflict in Ukraine and the new cold war between the Western countries and the Russian Federation with the BRICS movement (2022 - 2023). Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Conclusions ▪ All the continents are harshly competing in the global environment; the sustainable development, the energy supply, the agricultural productions, the industrial development, the military balance and the foreign direct investments represents the key aspects. ▪ The recent financial crisis showed that there is an urgent need to identify a proper and stable global governance to coordinate the different policies and to guarantee the control of the markets. ▪ New diplomatic initiatives seem fundamental to increase the stability of the world: the solutions of the crisis in Iraq and in Syria, in the Mediterranean region and in Africa, in Afghanistan and in North Korea, as well as a better definition of the world governance are the priorities. ▪ The European Spirit needs to be strengthened by the European peoples; ▪ The Eastern European countries should show that the European Spirit is more important than material opportunities offered from Brussels; ▪ The western countries should show that EU enlargement is a must, whose origins are in the culture of our continent, beyond threats and opportunities; ▪ The leadership of the United States in the world seems to be declining. ▪ Russia is turning its efforts towards the Asian area; ▪ The European integration process is facing considerable challenges today: Brexit, economic crisis, immigration, radicalism. But the European integration and coordination seems to be the only chance that the old continent has in front of itself to look towards the future. Stefano Pilotto, 2024 Stefano Pilotto, 2024  Thank You Stefano Pilotto. Tel. +39 333 60 65 560 e-mail: [email protected] Stefano Pilotto, 2024