Summary

This document provides a detailed historical background and overview of the Brexit process, including the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. It examines the negotiation of the withdrawal agreement and the key issues involved, such as future relationships, trade, and border controls. The text also discusses the various options available for the UK's future.

Full Transcript

Historical Background for an EU Exit No provision for exiting EU before Lisbon Treaty → not foreseen, only thought getting closer. - Former exit - Greenland, part of Denmark, withdrew from the EU in 1985 by signing a ‘special case’ withdrawal treaty regulating fisheries and market access rights for...

Historical Background for an EU Exit No provision for exiting EU before Lisbon Treaty → not foreseen, only thought getting closer. - Former exit - Greenland, part of Denmark, withdrew from the EU in 1985 by signing a ‘special case’ withdrawal treaty regulating fisheries and market access rights for fisheries. - After a referendum in 1982 in which 52% voted leave, after Home Rule gained from Denmark. Now an overseas territory association relationship. - First time in Lisbon Treaty - Article 50, about procedures - Withdrawal agreement - Agreement on Future relationship → Ex. Regulations about border controls → Issues in the negotiations Historical Background for the Brexit UK held a referendum in 1975 on EU membership - After government change that followed accession. - 67% in favor of staying in the Common Market, 33% against. British opt-outs and rebate since 1980s - The UK has never been a Member State comfortable inside the EU Euroscepticism among politicians and media - Public discourse about Britain’s place in the world - Rise of UKIP and conservative party rivalry, the switch from the Tories away from the EPP to the Eurosceptic EU reform group (ECR) 2015 general elections: PM Cameron promise to renegotiate - After he won the elections: referendum - Result leave 51.9% UK Opt-outs: The UK had multiple opt-outs since becoming a EU member or member of the predecessor from the EU community - Euro: The UK was not required to adopt the euro as its currency. - Schengen Agreement: The UK was not part of the free border movement. - Social and judicial cooperation: The UK did not implement all the rules. These opt-outs demonstrate the UK's ambivalent attitude towards further integration within the EU. The UK wanted to prevent certain rules from being implemented across the entire EU, hence the veto. As a result, an agreement was made allowing the UK to secure specific opt-outs. This allowed the rest of the EU to vote on matters again. Why opt-outs? - The UK had significant political and economic influence and was an important member state for the EU. - The EU was willing to make compromises to keep the UK within the Union, as the benefits of its membership (economic, strategic, diplomatic) were substantial. → Ex.: If I move from the Netherlands to Germany, I immediately have the same rights. If I move to England, I only get those rights after five years. Article 50 - Withdrawal from EU 1. Right to Withdraw: Any EU Member State can decide to withdraw from the Union, following its own constitutional processes. 2. Notification and Negotiation: - The withdrawing state must notify the European Council of its intent. - The EU will negotiate a withdrawal agreement outlining the terms, including the future relationship with the Union. - The agreement requires approval by a qualified majority in the Council and consent from the European Parliament. 3. Two-Year Deadline: EU treaties will stop applying to the withdrawing state two years after the notification unless: - A withdrawal agreement enters into force earlier. - The period is extended by unanimous agreement between the European Council and the withdrawing state. 4. Exclusion from Decision-Making: During withdrawal negotiations, the withdrawing state cannot participate in EU Council discussions or decisions concerning its withdrawal. 5. Rejoining the EU: If a state that has withdrawn wishes to rejoin the EU, it must follow the same procedures as any new applicant, as outlined in Article 49. → Article 49 = joining the EU / Copenhagen criteria → If the UK wants to rejoin they won’t have any opt-outs. They will have to adapt to EU law. → Once there is an agreement it also extends to the non-member states who are affiliated with the EU. (EEA: Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein) Negotiating Withdrawal In the form of an intergovernmental conference again, so: 27 MS meet to form their negotiation guideline. - One negotiator on behalf of all remaining Member States. - Michel Barnier ("My Secret Brexit Diary") → book about the withdrawal of the UK → shows how complex it is and how much of EU is integrated Negotiations between Barnier and UK Minister for exiting the EU. - The UK minister changed three times. (Ending with Therasa May) The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) needs to be adopted by Qualified Majority Voting in the Council and EP to consent. - QMV is the reason why the British attempted to override Ireland by approaching individual Member States, which they declined. This is a vital national issue for the Republic of Ireland-Luxembourg Compromise. - The EP mentioned they would not consent if rights of EU nationals living in the UK are not guaranteed. Negotiating Future Relationship Future relationships can only be negotiated & concluded after Britain becomes a third country. - This is against the rationale of negotiation theory. (Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.) - Conditions of withdrawal are linked to the context of future relationships. - Ex: if the future relationship is customs union or single market, then there is no need for a Northern Ireland backstop clause. This explains different standing points of parties in the British parliament. Therefore, the negotiations were about both the Withdrawal Agreement (first agreement) and the Trade and Cooperation agreement (second agreement). No Deal Brexit would be: - Two years after withdrawal negotiations began, the exit entered into force. This makes sure that the EU institutions cannot forcefully keep a MS in, by not agreeing to a withdrawal agreement. Problem Issues - UK desire to conclude its own trade agreements → i.e., no customs union - UK desire to exit Court of Justice of the EU jurisdiction → no single market, no CU - UK desire to make its own laws - UK desire to limit intra-EU migration - No free circulation of workers — but what about rights of current residents? - Principle of reciprocity. - No short-term visa requirements as long as UK grants this to all EU member states. - Divorce bill: There is about €40 billion that the UK should still pay into the EU budget for commitments made earlier. Ex.: pension payments to retired British personnel. → No future agreement if you don’t pay. Peace in Northern Ireland / GFA Peace in Northern Ireland depends on EU membership. - Namely: no hard border/no border checks on the island of Ireland. - Good Friday Agreement/ Belfast agreement: aimed at ending decades of conflict in Northern Island → after intense negotiations between British and Irish governments. Is this impossible without the Single Market or Customs Union? - If there will be different standards and different laws, then checks are necessary. But if the UK stays aligned to EU regulations all the time and does not make its own standards, then not. DUP (part of the government in Northern Ireland, also backing Conservative government in Westminster) does not want Northern Ireland to have a different status than the rest of the UK, nor a border along the Irish sea. → Issue of vital national interest to Ireland. → Borders will go against the Good Friday Agreement.

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