ES Ch. 6 ppt (PowerPoint Format) PDF

5 As, 2 Bs, 1Cs, 1Below Highest Grade 103% In the News!  Chapter 6 The Human Population and Urbanization Portland, Oregon Case Study Case Study: Portland, Oregon – On a Quest for Urban Sustainability Facts 7.1 billion people earth Each year we add about 85 mill...

5 As, 2 Bs, 1Cs, 1Below Highest Grade 103% In the News!  Chapter 6 The Human Population and Urbanization Portland, Oregon Case Study Case Study: Portland, Oregon – On a Quest for Urban Sustainability Facts 7.1 billion people earth Each year we add about 85 million That’s about 232,000 per day Expected to have 8.1 billion by 2025 9.7 billion by 2050 and perhaps 11 billion by 2100  This is the thing… The matter of population is not just about number of people. It considers how the world’s people are distributed among rural and urban areas Where do you think most people live…rural or urban? 52% of the world’s people live in urban areas and by 2050 (it is projected) two of every three people are likely to be urban dwellers( most of them in rapidly growing cities in less developed countries) Most of the these areas have HUGE ecological footprints ( far beyond their boundaries and to self sustaining)  4 Greatest Challenges Find ways to slow population growth Reduce our ecological footprints Increase our beneficial environmental impact To make rapidly growing urban areas more sustainable and livable. Case Study: Portland, Oregon – On a Quest for Urban Sustainability How is Portland, Oregon leading the way to urban sustainability? Their land use strong laws/policies have slowed population growth, reduced dependence on cars, and preserved green space Increasing beneficial environmental impact and reducing ecological footprint  Mixed Housing How do mixed-use neighborhoods decrease a city’s dependence on cars? With stores, light industries, professional offices, high-density housing and access to mass transit This allows people to meet most of their daily needs without the use of a car. Excellent light rail and bus lines Bike lanes and walkways The decrease the reliance on automobiles has saved its residents more than $1 billion a year It has also contributed to public health by cutting air pollution and encouraging higher levels of physical activity. 67% recycling rate of municipal solid waste 6.1 How Many People Can the Earth Support? Our focus… The impact on natural capital of rising human populations raises the question How long can the human population keep growing?  Human Population Growth Shows Certain Trends The human population grew slowly for most of human history, but in the last 200 years, rapid growth has taken place Factors contributing to exponential growth What type of curve are we talking about? J- curve! More people are fed with modern agriculture Technology has helped humans migrate to and live in almost all of the planet’s climate zones and habitats Death rates dropped sharply because of improved sanitation and health care and the development of antibiotics and vaccines to help control infectious diseases There Are Three Current Trends in the Size and Impact of Human Population Demographers- population experts Since 1960, the human population growth rate has slowed, but the population is still growing (1)Although, there has been a decrease in the population growth, the world’s population is still growing at a rate of about 1.2% In 2013 this added about 85 million people to the population Thats about 162 people every minute  Why do you think that while the annual growth rate of world population has generally dropped since the 1960s, the population has continued to grow?? First, let’s define population growth rate… The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Consider, rapid growth increase mainly caused by a decreasing death rate (more rapidly than birth rate), and particularly an increase in average human age. If I have not confused you enough, according to the US Census Bureau there is one birth every 8 seconds, one death every 12 seconds, one international migrant every 33 seconds, and a net gain of one person every 12 seconds in the US Despite these statistics, the population growth rate in the US has been on the decline for years. The decrease in growth rate is expected to continue. A main contributor to the falling population growth rate is the decreasing fertility rate. The fertility rate has fallen from 3.7 in the 1960s to 1.9 today, leading to a lower natural increase in the US population ( excess births over deaths)  Three trends cont. (2)Human population is unevenly distributed About 96% of the 85 million new arrivals on the planet in 2013 were added to the world’s less- developed countries Growing 14 times faster in undeveloped countries than in developed countries These countries ( for the most part) are not equipped to deal with the pressures of such rapid growth.  Three trends cont. (3)Increasingly people are moving to urban areas About 52% of the world’s people now live in urban areas and this trend is increasing by 2050, 2/3 will live in cities How long can the human population continue to grow while sidestepping many of the factors that sooner or later limit the growth of any population? Many different opinions So far, the advances in food production and health care have staved off widespread population declines. There is extensive and growing evidence that we are depleting and degrading much of the earth’s irreplaceable natural capital and perhaps we are approaching or exceeding various planetary boundaries  How long can we keep this Some experts say that: up? The key problem is the large and rapidly growing number of people in less developed countries Others…over consumption in affluent more developed countries because of their high rates of resource use per person and HUGE ecological footprint Other analysts argue that because of our technological ingenuity there are few ,if any, limits to human population growth and resource use per person. We can continue ever increasing economic growth and avoid serious damage to our life support systems by making technological advances in areas such as food production and medicine and finding substitutes. How long can we keep this up? Cont. Then we have proponent of slowing and eventually stopping population of growth point out that in addition to degrading our life support system, we are failing to provide the basic necessities for about 1.4 billion people ( one of every 5 on the planet) who struggle to survive on the equivalent of $1.25 per day. So what are we going to do when we get to the projected 2.6 billion. No one knows how close we are to environmental limits that some analysts say eventually will reduce the size of the human population primarily by sharply increasing the human death rate Which analyst’s point of view do you agree with?  6.2 What Factors Influence the Size of the Human Population? Simply put, if there are more births than deaths during a given period of time, the human population increases, and when the opposite is true, it decreases. Human population can grow and decline in particular areas through the interplay of 3 factors Birth ( fertility) Deaths ( mortality) Migration Births and immigration increase population size, while deaths and emigration decrease population size Fertility rate The average number of children born to women is the key factor in determining population size  Population Change Population change= (births + Immigration)- (deaths and emigration) When births plus immigration exceed deaths plus emigration, population grows; when the reverse is true, a population declines  The Population Can Grow, Decline, or Key factor: Remain Fairly Stable Women are having fewer babies but the world’s population is still growing Total fertility rate (TFR): the average number of children born to women in a population during their reproductive years Between 1955 to 2013 the TFR dropped from 5 to 2.5. Those who support slowing the world’s population growth view this as good news However, to eventually halt population growth, the TFR would have to drop to 2.1 which is the rate necessary for replacing both parents after taking infant mortality into accounts U.S population- Third Largest and Growing Case Study  U.S population- Third Largest and Growing Between 1900 and 2013, its population grew fourfold from 76 million to 316 million despite oscillations in the country’s TFR and population growth rate. The drop in TFR has slowed the rate of population growth in the US but the country’s population is still growing According to the US Census 2.7 m were added to the US population About 1.6m (59% of the total) were added because there were that many more births than deaths, and about 1.1 m (41% of the total) were legal immigrants. U.S population- Third Largest and Growing Since 1820 the US has admitted almost twice as many legal immigrants and refugees as all the other countries combined. In 2013, the country also had about 11.5 m illegal immigrants Because Americans are living longer, there is a dramatic increase in per capita resource use and much larger total and per capita ecological footprint The US Census Bureau projected that between 2013 and 2050, the US population would likely grow from 316m to 400m- an increase of 84 m people. The US has the world’s largest total and per capita ecological footprints, mostly because of its very high rate of resource use per person multiplied by the large size of the population and resulting wastes and pollution  Several Factors Affect Birth/Fertility Children as part of the labor Rates force Many couples survive on less than $2.25 /day( together) Large # of children to help with tasks including gathering water and food Some work (for pay) to help the household Cost of raising and educating children Fertility rates tend to be the lowest in more developed countries, where raising children is more costly Several Factors Affect Birth/Fertility Rates The availability of, or lack of, private and public pension systems Fewer children needed to support seniors Urbanization Better access to family planning services and tend to have fewer children than do those living in rural areas or poorer countries Educational and employment opportunities available for women Birth rates tend to be low when women work outside the home Several Factors Affect Birth/Fertility Rates Age: When their average age at marriage is 25, women tend to have fewer children Availability of legal abortion According to the WHO ( World health Organization, each year more than 208 m women become pregnant and at least 40 m of them get abortions ( about 20 m legal and 20 m illegal and often dangerous) Reliable birth control Control the number and spacing the children they have Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural norms These factors favor large families as many people strongly oppose abortion and some forms of birth control Recent Changes in the United States  Several Factors Affect Death Rates Over the last 100 years, the human population grew because of reduced death rates ( not necessarily bc of fertility rates) Nutrition, medicine, and sanitation improved Life expectancy increased (the average number of years a person may expect to live) 1955-2013 ( global) 48 yrs to 79 yrs 2013 (Japan) had the worlds longest life expectancy of 83 yrs 1900 to 2013 (US) 47 to 79 yrs World's poorest countries is about 55 yrs or less Life expectancy is decrease approx by 7-10 years due to poverty Several Factors Affect Death Rates Infant mortality rates ( another important indicator) dropped (the number of babies out of every 1,000 that die before their first birthday) It is viewed as one of the best measures of a society’s quality of life because it reflects a country’s general level of nutrition and health care. Rates have declined dramatically but even then 4m infants ( mainly is less developed countries) die of preventable causes. That’s 11,000 infants per day or 55 planes with 200 infants aboard…crashing 1900-2013- Infant mortality in the US has gone from 165 to 5.9 Sharp decline was a major factor in the increase in US average life expectancy during this period  The Population Size Can Be Affected by Immigration and Emigration Immigration (people in) and emigration (people out) Seeking jobs and economic improvement Fleeing religious persecution, ethnic conflicts, and war Environmental refugees – those who emigrate because of famine, drought, soil erosion or other environmental degradation 6.3 How Does a Population’s Age Structure Affect Its Growth or Decline? The growth or decline of a population is determined by the number of males and females in specific age categories (youth, middle, older age)  A Population’s Age Structure Helps Us to Make Projections about Growth Age structure is the number and percentages of people in the young, middle and old age categories Demographers create age-structure diagrams for populations to determine whether the population is increasing or decreasing  So what does the diagram mean? Well, it tells us that a country with a large percentage of it spiel younger than age 15 will experience rapid population growth unless death rates rise sharply. So the number of births in such a country will rise for several decades even if women have an average of only one or two children each, due to the large number of girls entering their prime reproductive years This type of scenario is likely to be seen in less developed countries. Aging Populations Can Decline Rapidly As the percentage of people age 65 or older increases in a population, that population will decline Japan: highest percentage of people over 65 With declining population, few adults are working and paying taxes Younger people have to support the increasing population of those over 65 Japan could experience economic difficulties in the future as there is a decreasing tax revenue  The American Baby Boom Added 79 m people tot he US population between 1946 and 1964 This group basically looks like Graying of America ( 65 of older at a a bulge moving up through rate of 10,000 a day until 2030) the country’s age structure. Number of working adults declines Strongly influenced the US in proportion to the number of economy ( make up about seniors, there may be political pressure form baby boomer to 36% of all adults Americans. increase tax revenues to help support he growing senior Major impact on who gets population elected and and what laws are passed or weakened Could lead to economic and politely conflicts between older and younger Americans Rapid Population Decline Can Cause Several Problems Lab Partners Find YO lab partner Country Assignment Kate France Sam China Javi Spain Julia Australia Nancy Nigeria Annabelle India Alexis South Africa Jesse Brazil Marren. China https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the- world-factbook/ https:// www.ce nsus.go v/popcl The annual ock/ percentage gro wth rate is simply the The average rate of percent change of growth divided a population is the by N, the total change divided by number of the time taken for years. that change to occur. 6.4 What Are Some Ways To Slow Human Population Growth? Ways to slow growth Reduce poverty Through economic development Elevate the status of women Empowerment of women Make family planning available Making education and clinical services available to couples that would help them choose how many children to have and when to have them.  Promoting Economic Development Can Stabilize a Population Demographic transition As countries industrialize and develop economically, per capita income rises, poverty declines, and populations grow more slowly According to this hypothesis, this happens in four stages: Preindustrial Transitional Industrial Postindustrial Other analysts fear that rapid population growth, extreme poverty and increasing environmental degradation and resource depletion could leave some low income less developed countries stuck in stage 2 of the demographic transition  The Demographic Transition This highlights the need to reduce poverty as a key to improving human health and stabilizing the population  Promoting Economic Development Can Stabilize a Population Empowerment of women tends to slow population growth Educated women who control their own fertility have fewer children Women that earn an income of their own and live in societies that do not suppress their rights can have an impact to slow down population growth thus stabilizing populations, reducing poverty and minimizing environmental impact Promoting Economic Development Can Stabilize a Population cont. Women make up 70 % of the world’s poor 66% of the 800 M illiterate adults Poor women (5-7 children) while women that can read have 2 or fewer. Need to ensure all children have at least elementary education  The question is… How does an already struggling country pick up the burden? How do we draw the line in developed countries between truly assisting and enabling? What about minimum wage? What does the Bible say about helping the poor?  Promoting Economic Development Can Some promote family planning Stabilize a Population Access to education and clinical services enables couples to chose how many children they will have This provides information on birth spacing, birth control, and health care for pregnant women and infants Family planning enables women to limit the size of their family and plan their pregnancies. Some studies have shown that for every dollar spent on family planning- $10-$16 in health can be saved  Slowing Population Growth in India cont. World’s first national family planning program started in 1952 (pop.400 M ) 2013 after 61 years of family planning efforts India had 1.28 B TFR 2.4 Increase in population as a result in declining death rates 2013 added 19 M alone  Slowing Population Growth in India cont. Projected to be the most populous country in 2050 with about 1.6 B Interestingly enough, 4th largest economy with a growing middle class (100M) Country faces serious poverty, malnutrition and environmental problems that get worse as the population continues to grow  India cont. Factors that help to account for larger families in India 1. Believe need several children to work and care for them inter old age 2. Strong cultural preference in India for male children mean that some couples keep having children until they produce one or more boys 90% have access to some sort of birth control but only 47% use it India already struggling with serious soil erosion, overgrazing, water pollution and air pollution However, they have great economic growth may help India to slow its population growth by accelerating its demographic transition.  Slowing Population Growth in China China is the world's most populous country, in 2013. 1960s, Serious threat of mass starvation due to rapid population growth. To avoid this, government officials took measures ( created a policy) that eventually led to the the establishment of most extensive, intrusive, and strict family planning and birth control program.  Slowing Population Growth in China Goal- to sharply reduce population growth and avoid mass starvation and social upheaval ( violent or sudden change) by promoting one child families. Government provides for married couples contraceptives sterilizations abortions  China cont. Married couples pledging to have no more than one child receive a number of benefits, including better housing, more food, free healthcare, salary bonuses, and preferential job opportunities for their child. Couples who break their pledge lose such benefits Great milestones regarding slowing population growth have been achieved TFR 5.7 to 1.5  China cont. Their population is growing slower than the US even with legal immigration included Reduced the level of extreme poverty by 500 M in 20 yrs At least 300 M middle class which will lead to more problems eventually They will consume resources per person and increase their already HUGE environmental footprint Like India, they too struggle with environmental problems.  China cont. In 2012 194 M people aged 60 and older Largest # of people in the all of the world’s countries Graying of China Do you remember what this means? What happens when this phenomenon happens? Perhaps relaxation of the one child policy may help.  6.5 What Are the Major Urban Resource and Environmental Problems? Focus Cities use high levels of resources resulting in waste, pollution and poverty Most cities are unsustainable  Global Outlook: Megacities What are the 5 most populous urban areas?  Population Experts See Important Urban Trends Urban areas grow by natural increase ( more births than deaths) and by migration, mostly from rural areas. About 52% of the world’s populations live in urban areas. 81% of all Americans 53% of China’s population  Population Experts See Important Urban Trends Trends in urban population dynamics The percentage of people living in urban areas will continue to increase ( currently from 2% to 52% The size and number of urban regions is increasing exponentially Megacity is a city with more than 10M people Poverty is becoming increasingly urbanized (typically in less-developed countries) The UN has estimated that at least 1 B people live in the slums  Why Are People Moving to Cities? Every day, about 200,000 more people become urban dwellers Rural people come to cities in search of better jobs, living conditions, education, food, and health care Some rural people are driven to urban areas by famine, deteriorating environmental conditions, and war Why Are People Moving to Cities? We must keep in mind that some of the infrastructure of the some of the old cities and some deteriorating services may not be able to handle the over population By the way, what are we talking about when we are referring to infrastructure? Streets, bridges, dams, power lines, schools, water supply pipes, sewers, etc. It has been reversed in some cities like Portland  Good News about Urbanization in the US Most people have better working and housing condition sand air and water quality have improved Better sanitation, Clea public water supplies and expanded medical care have slashed death rates and incidences of sickness from infectious diseases AND it has helped maintain biodiversity by reducing the destruction and degradation of wildlife habitats  Urban Sprawl Gobbles Up the Countryside Shopping malls and parking lots replace farmer’s fields Urban sprawl: The growth of low density development on the edges of cities and towns- is eliminating agricultural and wild lands around many cities. Is the product of ample affordable land, automobile use, federal and state funding of highways, and inadequate urban planning Contributes to environmental problems and natural capital degradation This is what urban sprawling looks like… urbanized areas Las Vegas, Nevada Urban Sprawl  What about ? What about their platform? Isn’t good that they are creating awareness about the issue?  Urbanization Has Advantages Cities are centers of economic development, innovation, education, technological advance, social and cultural diversity, and job markets People who live in urban areas live longer, have better health care and education Recycling is more feasible Tend to drive less and rely on mass transportation  Urbanization Has Disadvantages Disadvantages Unsustainable Urban populations occupy only about 3% of the earth’s land area, but they consume about 75% of its resources and produce about 75% of the world’s pollution and wastes Cities lack vegetation Cleared for building Most cities have no benefit for the ecosystem service that trees provide  Urbanization Has Disadvantages Cities have water problems More water requirements due to the increase population as a result we can deprive rural areas and wild life of surface water and it can deplete groundwater supplies Cities concentrate pollution and health problems, produce noise pollution, and affect local climate  Urbanization Has Disadvantages Cities have excessive noise Noise pollution- any unwanted , disturbing or harmful sound that damages, impairs, or interferes with hearing, causes stress, hampers concentration and work efficiency or causes accidents Sound pressure becomes damaging at about 85 dbA and painful at about 120 dbA 180 dbA sound can kill Prolonged exposure at above 85 dbA can cause permanent hearing damage ( approx. 120 dbA) If you can’t hear someone talking to you…it is too loud If we raise our voice to be heard…it is too loud  Population Experts See Important Urban Trends Life is a desperate struggle for the urban poor in less-developed countries Crowded into slums or live in squatter settlements and shantytowns at the edges of cities Lack clean water, proper food, plumbing, and electricity Live in areas of high pollution and/or in environments prone to floods and earthquakes Some government have addressed these problems by legally recognizing slums and granting legal titles to the land. There is evidence that poor people usually improve there living conditions once they know they have permanent place to live.  Mexico City Case Study Megacity with 19.5 M More than 1/3 of its residents live in “barrios” ( slums), which lack running water and electricity At least 3 M in the barrios have no sewage facilities so human waste from these slums is deposited in gutters, vacant lots and open ditches every day, attracting rats and flies When the wind picks up tiered excrement, a fecal snow blankets parts of the city. This bacteria laden fallout lead to widespread salmonella and hepatitis infections, especially among children They have come a long way air pollutants now are at the same level of LA They are phasing out leaded gasoline Fewer emissions ( expanded public transportation) 6.6 How Does Transportation Affect Urban Environmental Impacts? Widely disbursed urban areas in some countries create larger ecological footprints because the population depends on motor vehicles for transportation  Cities Can Grow Outward or Upward Many people live in compact cities – like Hong Kong or Tokyo Move around the cities by walking, biking or using mass transit Some people live in dispersed cities Depend on cars for transportation Cities with urban sprawl have adverse environmental effects The US has 4.4% of the world’s people 25% of the world’s 1 B motor vehicles, according to the US Dept. of Transportation Many people drive alone to work every day Motor Vehicle Usage Has Advantages and Disadvantages Advantages: Cars are comfortable and convenient Much of the world’s economy is tied to the production/maintenance of cars, roads, etc. Disadvantages Accidents, killing or severely injuring people Each year~kill 32,000 people in the US and injure another 2 M at least 300,000 of them severely. Car accidents have killed more Americans than have all the wars in the country’s history Motor Vehicle Usage Has Advantages and Disadvantages Auto exhaust, the largest source of outdoor air pollution 30,000-60,000 premature deaths per year in the USA according to the EPA Fastest growing CO2 emissions Congestion and traffic jams The average person will spend an average of 2 years of their lives in traffic jams as streets and freeways will look more like parking lot. Hmm…what city does this sound like? Reducing Automobile Use Is Not Easy, But It Can Be Done Phase in full-cost pricing – charging a tax on gasoline that could: Offset harmful effects of driving Fund programs to educate people Finance mass transit, bike lanes, and sidewalks Raise parking fees in cities Increase/charge tolls on roads, tunnels, and bridges  Reducing Automobile Use Is Not Easy, But It Can Be Done cont. But what would a full cost pricing of a gallon of gas cost? Approx. $12/gallon What about the ones that cannot afford this gas efficient vehicles? How could affect the economy? So why would this be difficult in the US? First Some people already feel they are already over taxed Second Because of the dispersed nature of urban areas, it would make it difficult as most of the m depend on cars and it would be a huge economic burden Third Fast, efficient and affordable mass transportation is not available in the US and most of the revenue created y gas sales is put back in to improving highways for motor vehicles  6.7 How Can Cities Become More Sustainable and Livable? Give people the ability to choose alternate modes of transportation – walking, biking, or taking mass transit Provide ways to recycle or reuse waste Provide ways to grow much of your own food Protect biodiversity by preserving the surrounding land  Smart Growth Can Promote Environmental Sustainability Smart growth Policies and tools that encourage more environmentally sustainable urban development with less dependance on cars Includes zoning laws and other regulations to direct growth and reduce ecological footprints Some critics may say that by limiting urban expansion, smart growth can lead to higher land and housing prices. Smart Growth Tools  Eco-Cities: Cities for People, Not Cars People oriented, not car oriented cities. The people in these communities are able to walk, bike, or use low polluting mass transit for most of their travel. Abandoned lots an industrial sites are cleaned up and used. Nearby forest, grasslands, wetlands, and farm factory preserved Most of the food that people eat comes from a nearby organic farms, solar green houses, small gardens on rooftops, yards, and window boxes. It is not a futuristic dream, cities like Portland, Oregon ( Bogota, Columbia; Helsinki, Finland; and Melbourne, Australia )are eco cities  Eco-Cities: Cities for People, Not Cars Retrofit existing cities by: Developing low-polluting mass transit Meeting high energy-efficiency standards for electricity and appliances Planting trees and plants throughout the city Reducing air and noise pollution, as well as soil erosion Efficient use of ecological land-use planning  Curitiba, Brazil 3. 2 million people Ecological capital of Brazil The bus rapid transit system moves large numbers of passengers efficiently, including 72% of the cities commuters. Only high rise apartment buildings are allowed near major bus routes and the bottom two floors of each building must be devoted to stores Cars are banned from 49 blocks in the center of the downtown area, so there is no interruption to the network of pedestrian walkways connected to the bus stations, parks, and bicycle paths Volunteers have planted more than 1.5 million trees throughout the city No one can cut down a tree without a permit, which also requires that two trees must be planted for each one that is cut down  Curitiba, Brazil It's poor residence receive free medical and dental care, childcare, and job training, and 40 feeding centers are available for street children The city uses old buses as roving classrooms to train it's poor in basic job skills Other retired buses has become health clinics, soup kitchens, and day care centers that are free for low income parents The city recycles roughly 70% of its paper and 60% of its metal, glass, and plastic About 95% of Curitiba’s citizens can read and write and 83% of its adults have at least a high school education. All children study ecology Polls show that 99% of the city inhabitants would not want to live anywhere else  Curitiba, Brazil Challenges The city has it challenges mainly due to a five fold increase in its population since 1965 The once clear dreams are often overloaded with pollutants The bus system is nearing capacity, in car ownership is on the rise The city is considering building a light rail system to relieve some of the pressure This city is an acclaimed model of urban planning and sustainability It is the brainchild of architect and former college professor Jamie Lerner, who has served as the city mayor three times since 1969 Smart Growth Tools and the Three Big Ideas Smart growth tools Can reduce the strain on the earth’s natural capital resources in cities Makes cities economically competitive, which can provide opportunities for women to be educated and self-sufficient – and have fewer children Create sustainable cities and convert unsustainable existing cities to sustainable environmentally friendly communities