ENV 214 Environmental Management Lecture Notes PDF

ENV 214 Environmental Management Lecture 17-18: Climate Change and Hazard Haniyum Maria Khan (Hmk1) Senior Lecturer, ESM North South University  Case Study: Melting Ice in Greenland World’s largest island – 80% covered by glaciers 10% of the world’s fres...

ENV 214 Environmental Management Lecture 17-18: Climate Change and Hazard Haniyum Maria Khan (Hmk1) Senior Lecturer, ESM North South University  Case Study: Melting Ice in Greenland World’s largest island – 80% covered by glaciers 10% of the world’s fresh water Glacial melting and movement accelerating Effect on sea level if melting continues – 1 meter rise by 2100  Weather and Climate Weather is short-term changes – Temperature, air pressure, precipitation, wind Climate is average conditions in a particular area over a long period of time – Temperature and precipitation – Fluctuations are normal How Is the Earth’s Climate Changing? Considerable scientific evidence indicates that the earth’s atmosphere is warming at a rapid rate that is likely to lead to significant climate disruption during this century In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 1 °C (1.8 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.  AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (over past 130 years) Average surface temperature (°C) Year Atmospheric warming has trended upward since 1975 with a slight slowing of this trend between 2002 and 2012. Question: What are two conclusions you can draw from this graph? Fig. 19-3, p. 507  Global Warming Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel 50% of solar energy reflected or absorbed by clouds. 45% is absorbed by surface, 5% is reflected. Absorbed solar energy is “returned” to space by re-radiation as infrared energy.  Global Warming The temperature at or near the surface of the Earth is determined by four main factors: ▪ The amount of sunlight Earth receives. ▪ The amount of sunlight Earth reflects. ▪ Retention of heat by the atmosphere. ▪ Evaporation and condensation of water vapor. Solar Energy provides most of Earth’s energy  Global Warming: The Greenhouse Effect ❑ The Greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. ❑ It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. ❑ Sunlight that reaches Earth warms both the atmosphere and the surface. Earth's surface and atmospheric system then re-radiate heat as infrared radiation. Certain gases in Earth's atmosphere absorb and re-emit this radiation. Some of it returns to the Earth's surface, making Earth warmer than it otherwise would be. In trapping heat, the gases act a little like the panels of glass in a greenhouse and accordingly, the effect is called the greenhouse effect.  Global Warming: The Greenhouse Effect Imagine… a car on a cool but sunny day…  Global Warming: The Greenhouse Effect ❑Major Greenhouse gases Any gases that cause the “greenhouse effect!” ▪ Carbon dioxide ▪ Methane ▪ Nitrous oxide ▪ Water vapour ▪ Chlorofluorocarbons  Greenhouse Gases - Sources ❑ The main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity are: ▪ Burning of fossil fuels and deforestation leading to higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the air. Land use change account for up to one third of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. ▪ Livestock enteric fermentation and manure management, paddy rice farming, land use and wetland changes, pipeline losses, and covered vented landfill emissions leading to higher methane atmospheric concentrations. Many of the newer style fully vented septic systems that enhance and target the fermentation process also are sources of atmospheric methane. ▪ Use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in refrigeration systems, and use of CFCs in fire suppression systems and manufacturing processes. ▪ Agricultural activities, including the use of fertilizers, that lead to higher nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations. CO2- Emissions Greenhouse Gases - Emissions Greenhouse gas - Trends  Global Warming - Potential Effects ❑ Changes in Climate pattern: ▪ Global rise in temperature is expected to significantly change patterns of rainfall, soil moisture, and other climatic factors related to agricultural productivity. ▪ Global warming will alter normal weather and climatic patterns, including the frequency or intensity of violent storms (cyclones, hurricanes). Warming is expected to result in wetter winters, hotter and drier summers, an increased frequency of large storm events, and an increased possibility of droughts in the northern temperate latitudes. ▪ Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice.  Global Warming - Potential Effects ❑ Rise in Sea Level: ▪ A rise in sea level is a potentially serious problem related to global warming. As sea level rises and population increases, the number of people vulnerable to coastal flooding will increase. ▪ The cause for the rise in sea level is thought to be twofold: thermal expansion of warming ocean water (the primary cause) and melting of glacial ice (a secondary cause). ▪ One estimate is that sea level will likely to increase 0.5 to 1.5 meters by 2100  Global Warming - Potential Effects ❑ Projected irreversible effect will be ▪ Degradation and loss of 1/3 of coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefs ▪ Disruption of coastal fisheries ▪ Flooding of: ▪ Low-lying barrier islands and coastal areas ▪ Agricultural lowlands and deltas ▪ Contamination of freshwater aquifers  Global Warming - Potential Effects ❑ Changes in plant and animal distribution ▪ For each 10C rise in the earth’s average temperature, climate belts in middle latitude regions would shift toward the earth’s poles by 100-150 kilometers. Such shift could change areas where crops could be grown and affect the location of at least one-third of today’s forests. ▪ Tree species whose seeds are spread by wind may not be able to migrate fast enough to keep up with climate shifts and would die out in the affected regions. Changes in the structure and location of wildlife habitats could cause extinction of plant and animal species that could not migrate to new areas. ▪ Shifts in regional climate would threaten many parks, wildlife reserves, wetlands and coral reefs.  Global Warming - Potential Effects ❑ Human health ▪ Higher temperature will cause an increase in death and illness, especially among the older people, those with poor health and the urban poor who cannot afford air conditioning. ▪ As temperatures rise in temperate areas, there could be an increase in the area of the world affected by malaria and other tropical diseases spread by mosquitoes and microbes that cannot survive cold winter temperatures. ▪ Potential changes in the distribution of the most prevalent vector-borne diseases: - Malaria and dengue fever, Lymphatic filariasis, Schistosomiasis, African trypanosomiasis Global Warming to Climate Change Climate Change is Not New But Has Accelerated Over the past 3.5 billion years the climate has been altered by: – Volcanic emissions, changes in solar input, movement of the continents, meteor impacts, changing global air, and ocean circulation Over the past 900,000 years – Glacial and interglacial periods Over the past 10,000 years – Interglacial period Over the past 1,000 years – Temperature stable Since 1975 – Temperature changes – Accelerating What causes Earth’s climate to change? Changes in the atmosphere Natural processes – Volcanoes – Tectonic plate movement – Changes in the sun Human activities – any activity that releases “greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere Climate Change  Climate Change & Bangladesh UNFCCC identified Bangladesh as one of the most vulnerable countries of the world due to climate change because; – geographic location; – flat and low-lying topography; – high population density; – reliance of many livelihoods on climate sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture and fisheries; Though Bangladesh emits a minuscule of GHG, in 2005 terms,- 0.053 to 0.045 billion tonnes Developed countries -18.2 billion tonnes in 2005. UNFCC- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change  Climate Change Impacts Temperature extremes Erratic rainfall Increased number of severe flood Increased frequency of cyclone and salinity intrusion More river bank and coastal erosion Population Vulnerable to Impact of Climate Change Barind Tract: Drought (5.038 million people under threat) Haor Basin: Flash Flood (20 million people under threat) Water logging and permanent inundation due to Sea Level Rise (SLR)  Climate Change Impacts Population Vulnerable to Impact of Climate Change Coastal Zone: SLR, Cyclone, Salinity – 35.8 million (28% of total population), among these – 72 offshore islands with an area of 4200 km2 and over 3 million people are extremely vulnerable  Climate Change Impacts About 18 percent households of the Sundarban impact zone are dependent on Sundarban resources (shrimp fry collectors, honey collectors, golpata collectors, shell/crab collectors and medicinal plant collectors. Around 0.5 million household’s (family members 2.7 million) primary income source is fishing (losing working days because of rough weather in the Bay). Over 160,000 coastal fishermen and estimated 185,000 shrimp fry collector are involved in marine fisheries.  Recent Experiences Cyclone –SIDR’2007 Cyclone – AILA’2009 Recurring Floods Desertification of North, North-west and South- west of Bangladesh Intrusion of saline water Damage and Loss Assessment of Cyclone SIDR Casualty: around 4000 Districts affected: 30(worst hit: 13) People affected: 5.48 million People needing immediate relief: 2.56 million Roads (km): 89,000 Bridges and culverts: 1654 Embankment (km): 315 Ferries: 28 (out of 44) (13 restored) Electricity: 33kv line- 416 km, 11 kv line 287 km Property loss: Tk 8200 crore ($1180 million) Environment and Forest: US$ 5.6 Million Roads and Highways: US$2.6 million BWDB- embankments, sluice gates, riverbank protection structure: US$27.0 million (GOB estimate as of 21 November 2007)  Cyclone Aila On May 25, Cyclone Aila struck the coastal areas of Bangladesh with wind speeds of up to 56 miles per hour. Heavy rains, combined with high tides, resulted in storm surges which breached embankments, flooded villages, and affected nearly 5 million individuals. According to GoB, the cyclone killed 190 people, injured more than 7,000, and damaged more than 500,000 houses. Cyclone Aila also caused extensive damage to infrastructure, including more than 1,400 km of embankments, an estimated 8,800 km of roads, and 350,000 acres of crop land. The cyclone caused damage in 11 districts in southern Bangladesh, including the most-affected districts of Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Pirojpur and Patuakhali. Havoc in the Sunderban  Global Warming – Responses ❑ Responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. ❑ The primary international effort to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change ("mitigation") is coordinated by the 194-nation UNFCCC.  Global Warming – Responses ❑ The Kyoto Protocol is their only legally binding emissions agreement and only limits emissions through the year 2012. Afghanistan and the USA are the only nations in the UNFCCC that have not ratified the original protocol, and as of October 2011 several others have refused to extend the emissions limits beyond 2012. ❑ Nonetheless, in the 2010 Cancun Agreements, member nations agreed that urgent action is needed to limit global warming to no more than 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels.  Dealing with the Climate Change Solutions ❑ There are two basic adjustments: ▪ Adaptation; that is, do nothing to combat it, and live with future global climatic change. ▪ Work to mitigate the situation (reduce its severity) by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.  Dealing with the Climate Change Solutions A variety of prevention and cleanup solutions: ❑Wasting less energy by improving energy efficiency ❑Using less oil and coal which produce Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases ❑Relying more on cleaner energy sources such as natural gas, solar, wind and hydrogen ❑Shifting to organic farming and other more sustainable forms of agriculture  Dealing with the Climate Change Solutions ❑Increasing use of nuclear power ❑Using mass transit and thereby, decrease the use of automobiles; providing greater economic incentives to energy-efficient technology; requiring higher fuel economy standards for cars, trucks, and buses ❑Planting more trees (reforestation) is also a potential strategy. ❑Management plans with the objective of minimizing burning and protection of the world's forests  Climate Change: Bangladesh Response Home Read The cornerstones of all actions, international or domestic, are to ensure security of food, water, energy and, livelihood (including health). To manage the impacts, Bangladesh has taken a two- pronged approach. – It has been vigorously participating in the international negotiations process for realisation of the goals under the Bali Action Plan – as well as preparing itself at home for necessary domestic action  Climate Change: Bangladesh Response Home Read Prepared National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) in 2005; identified 15 Priority projects. Prepared Initial National Communication and preparing Second National Communication.  Climate Change: Bangladesh Response Home Read Made climate change an integral part of the new draft Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) National Water Management Plan Developed Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP 2009) The cornerstones of all actions, international or domestic, are to ensure security of food, water, energy and, livelihood (including health) BCCSAP 2009 has laid out Bangladesh’s possible response to impacts of climate change BCCSAP contains 6 themes and 44 programme areas  Climate Change: Bangladesh Dev. Approaches Home Read Establishment of Climate Change Trust Fund with an allocation of US$ 100m for this year. Implementation is ongoing To address the negative impact of CC GoB has created a CC Trust Fund from its own meager resources amounting to US$ 100 million focusing on adaptation. This amount could also be utilized in health, education, agriculture or other priority sectors. Lately, we have established a CC Resilience Fund out of the earlier pledged Multi Donor Trust Fund. Strengthening of community-based disaster risk reduction programme Disaster management and Relief Division has identified immediate need for establishing new 2000 coastal cyclone shelters, 2000 flood victim shelters, 150000 storm proof house in the coastal area, 60000 houses for river erosion victims (estimated cost US$ 1.22 billion)  Resilience Despite continued CC-related disasters BD economy has continued to grow – poverty has fallen; major social gains such as gender equity in primary education, IMR decline, life expectancy increased Food production continues to grow But continued Climate Change will literally wash away such achievements  Recent Success Bangladesh has already developed salinity tolerant, flood tolerant and shorter maturity varieties of rice. This will help in the short run. Extensive agricultural extension services are needed to make these varieties available to the farmers. But this is only the beginning: more varieties and appropriate ecosystem-based agricultural system need to be developed and popularized;  Bangladesh Position on Climate Change: An effective response to climate change challenges must strike a balance between mitigation and adaptation. Bangladesh urges all major emitters to collectively establish and implement a global target to stabilize the atmosphere over the short, medium and long term Adaptation is necessary to cope with the unavoidable dimensions of climate change and is essential in ameliorating near-term threats. Adequate physical, economic and institutional capacities can reduce the vulnerability of high-risk communities and groups. Comprehensive adaptation can help many communities to minimize economic losses induced by natural disasters  Research, Knowledge Management & Capacity Building Continuous research, monitoring and knowledge management and development and transfer of technology, are needed to manage climate change and its impacts One immediate need is to start multi-disciplinary human capability development planning and implementation for climate and environmental management Intensive training program for climate displaced community to adapt and cope with new situation Effective water and ecosystem management in Bangladesh calls for strengthening of regional cooperation in terms of basin-wide river management and joint water development and water sharing activities by the regional countries Drought Cyclone Storm surge, salinity Hazards Bangladesh Faces Flood Water logging Bank erosion Erosion  Hazard Hazard may be defined as “a dangerous condition or event, that threat or have the potential for causing injury to life or damage to property, or the environment; By its nature, a hazard involves something that could potentially be harmful to a person's life, health, property, or the environment. One key concept in identifying hazard is the presence of stored energy that, when released, can cause damage.  Classification of hazard Hazards can be grouped into two broad categories: 1. Natural hazard, and 2. Man-made hazards. 1. Natural hazards are hazards which are caused because of natural phenomena (hazards with meteorological, geological or even biological origin). Examples of natural hazards are cyclones, tsunamis, earthquake and volcanic eruption which are exclusively of natural origin. Landslides, floods, drought, fires are socio-natural hazards since their causes are both natural and man made. For example flooding may be caused because of heavy rains, landslide or blocking of drains with human waste. 2. Manmade hazards are hazards which are due to human negligence. Manmade hazards are associated with industries or energy generation facilities and include explosions, leakage of toxic waste, pollution, dam failure, wars or civil strife etc.  Different Types of Natural Hazards Cyclone Tornados Nor’Wester Storm Surges and Tidal Bores Flood Coastal Erosion Landslide Groundwater Contamination Earthquakes  Why Bangladesh is a Hazard-Prone Country? general low topography of the country with major rivers draining through Bangladesh including congested river network system, heavy rainfall in the up-country or in-country, snow melt in the Himalayas and glacial displacement (natural), river siltation and landslides, human interference (including huge levels of deforestation in the Himalaya)  Because of the funnel shaped coast, Bangladesh repeatedly becomes the landing ground of cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal. Maximum damage occurs in Bangladesh because of the low flat terrain, high density of population and poorly built houses. Most of the damage occur in the coastal regions and in the offshore islands.  Impacts of natural disasters Bangladesh being a disaster prone country is subject to colossal damages to life and property almost every year due to natural disaster and climatic hazards. This has tremendous impact on the overall economy of the country. In addition human suffering is beyond imagination. The current burning issues of green house effects and depletion of ozone layer causing global warming will aggravate the situation further in the future. Possible sea level rise will inundate the low-lying areas of the country by displacing human habitat and agricultural and forest land.  Preventive and Protective measures Preventive action on the cause of the phenomenon itself: For example, soil conservation and engineering works for flood prevention and control; Hazard assessment and warning: this involves identification of the areas exposed to various hazards, the quantification of the hazards and the establishment of appropriate systems for monitoring, forecasting and warning of impending events; Short term protective measures and preparedness: In response to imminent warnings, much can be done to reduce the vulnerability of people and property by adopting temporary protecting measures, by mobilizing medical teams, fire-fighting services or in extreme cases, by evacuating the people from the endangered areas;  Preventive and Protective measures Long term protective measures: in the face of known hazards, the attendant risks and eventual losses can be reduced by adopting permanent protective measures such as earthquake resistant design and development and construction of essential services, industrial plants, and urban lifelines etc.; Land use and risk management: Risk and losses can often be reduced significantly by the appropriate choice of less hazardous sites for new human settlements and for other economic activities. Agricultural methods can be adopted to minimize the risks attendant on flooding or soil instability; Public information and education: None of these preventive or protective measures will be fully effective without the informed participation of the whole community.