Climate Change and Adaptation: University of Gondar PDF

University of Gondar College of Agriculture and Environmental Science Forest Forest and and Climate Climate change chang...

University of Gondar College of Agriculture and Environmental Science Forest Forest and and Climate Climate change change MSc MSc Program Program Climate Science course Yirdaw Yirdaw Meride Meride Teshome Teshome (Ph.D (Ph.D )) Gondar Gondar 2024 2024 What is Climate Science?  Climate science, also known as climatology, is the scientific study of Earth's climate. It examines how the climate system works, how it has changed in the past, and how it is likely to change in the future. The climate system is a complex system that includes the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice sheets, and biosphere. These components interact with each other in a variety of ways to determine the Earth's climate. What is Climate Science?  Climate scientists use a variety of tools and techniques to study the climate system, including: oObservations of the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface oComputer models of the climate system oPaleoclimate data, such as ice cores and tree rings Theoretical studies of climate processes oClimate science is a multidisciplinary field that draws on knowledge from a variety of disciplines, including meteorology, oceanography, physics, chemistry, biology, and geology. Cont…  Climate science is important because it helps us to understand how the climate system works and how it is changing. This information can be used to make informed decisions about how to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Why Study Climate?  Determines the type and location of human-managed ecosystems, such as agricultural farmlands.  Affects the weathering of rock, the type of soil that forms, and the rate of soil formation.  Affects people and society  Helps to determine the quantity and quality of water available for human use.  Determines the severity of droughts, storms, and floods.  Largely determines the nature and locations of biomes -major terrestrial ecosystems, defined based on their plant communities. Weather vs. Climate What is Weather? What is Climate? Are they the same? How are they related? How can they be confused? Climate vs. Weather Weather  The actual state of the atmosphere in a period of several hours up to a few days (in a given place) (Gramelsberger & Feichter, 2011). Climate A statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period ranging from months to thousands or millions of years (IPCC).  The classical period is 30 years, which are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind.  Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system (World Meteorological Organization (WMO)). Characteristics of Weather and Climate Temperature Wind Clouds Precipitation Humidity Storms (cyclones!) Meteorology – the Study of Weather  The field of atmospheric science which is most well-known and of practical importance to the general public is meteorology, the study of weather.  Meteorology is usually concerned only with the lowest region of the atmosphere, the troposphere.  Weather is influenced not only by vertical, diurnal, and seasonal variations of atmospheric density and temperature, and of solar heating, but also by horizontal variations over Earth’s surface.  Atmospheric winds and circulation are influenced by Earth’s rotation, and by surface conditions (i.e. whether land or sea, topography, and surface temperature).  The introduction of weather-monitoring satellites, and of supercomputers, have greatly facilitated the science and application of meteorology in recent years. Climatology – The Study of Weather Statistics, patterns, and Trends  Climatology, the study of climate, differs from meteorology in that climate is the long-term pattern of temperature, precipitation, wind patterns, etc. at a particular location, over periods of a year or more, whereas weather is the current (or very near-term) state of affairs at the location or region of interest.  For example, the climate in Antarctica is quite different from that in the Sahara Desert, or the Amazon river basin.  The latter two are also quite different from each other, despite being at nearly the same latitudes on Earth.  Climate can, however, change over long periods of time, and the topic of climate change is currently of practical importance, because of the known or potential effects of human activity on local, regional, or even world-wide climates. Historical events related to climate change  Industrial Revolution (late 18th - early 19th centuries): oMarked the beginning of large-scale fossil fuel burning (coal) for industrial processes. oThis significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions, primarily carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere. 1896: Svante Arrhenius's Theory: oSwedish scientist published a paper suggesting that increasing atmospheric CO2 levels could lead to global warming. This was a groundbreaking concept at the time. Early 20th Century: Early observations and measurements of global temperatures began. Scientists started to recognize a warming trend. Cont… Mid-20th Century:  Continued industrial growth and widespread use of fossil fuels accelerated greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns about climate change began to emerge within the scientific community.  1960s-1970s: Growing scientific evidence pointed to a human influence on climate change. Environmental movement gained momentum, raising public awareness.  1988: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Established: The UN created the IPCC to assess the science related to climate change. This marked a significant step towards international cooperation on the issue.  1997: Kyoto Protocol: The first international treaty to set legally binding targets for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Cont… 2007: Nobel Peace Prize: The IPCC and former US Vice President Al Gore were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts to raise awareness about climate change. 2015: Paris Agreement: A landmark agreement with the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Recent Years: Continued increase in global temperatures and extreme weather events. Growing international efforts to transition to renewable energy sources and reduce carbon emissions. This is a simplified overview. Climate change is a complex issue with a long and intricate history. What is Climate Change? IPCC, 3rd Assessment Report: Climate change: a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. UNFCCC, Article 1: “climate change”: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.” What is Climate Variability? IPCC, 3rd AR: Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability) What are the Primary Indicators of Climate Change? What are the cause of climate change? Climate change is caused by: 1. Anthropogenic activities its include; A. burning fossil fuels What are the cause of climate change? cont... B. cutting down forests C. developing land for farms, cities, and roads. These all activities are contributing the rising of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. What are the cause of climate change? cont… Human activities result in emissions of major principal greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the halocarbons These gases accumulate in the atmosphere, causing concentrations to increase with time. Significant increases in all of these gases have occurred in the industrial era What is the “greenhouse effect”?  GHGs are chemical compounds such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide found in the atmosphere.  CO2 is the main GHG and its emissions mainly come from burning fossil fuels.  The observed increase of CO2 in the atmosphere from about 280 ppm in The long wavelength infrared radiation the preindustrial era to about 364 from the earth is absorbed by greenhouse ppm in 1997 gases and hence can’t escape: net effect - increase mean annual temperature.  Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12 and ==Global warming CFC-11) are manmade compounds naturally blanket the Earth and keep it that were not appreciably present in about 33oC warmer than it would be the atmosphere before 1950. without these gases in the atmosphere; 2 0 What are the cause of climate change? cont… What are the cause of climate change? cont… 2. Natural factors; A. volcanoes Volcanic eruptions are responsible for releasing molten rock, or lava, from deep within the Earth, forming new rock on the Earth’s surface. But eruptions also impact the atmosphere. The gases and dust particles thrown into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions have influences on climate. Volcanoes have also caused global warming over millions of years during times in Earth’s history when extreme amounts of volcanism occurred, releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.  What are the cause of climate change? cont… B.The earth's tilt oEarth’s spin, tilt, and orbit affect the amount of solar energy received by any particular region of the globe, depending on latitude, time of day, and time of year. oSmall changes in the angle of Earth’s tilt and the shape of its orbit around the Sun cause changes in climate over a span of 10,000 to 100,000 years, and are not causing climate change today. What are the cause of climate change? cont… C. Ocean currents The ocean influences weather and climate by storing solar radiation, distributing heat and moisture around the globe, and driving weather systems. Ocean currents regulate global climate, helping to counteract the uneven distribution of solar radiation reaching Earth's surface. Without currents in the ocean, regional temperatures would be more extreme—super hot at the equator and frigid toward the poles—and much less of Earth's land would be habitable. Impact of Climate Change on water  Medium confidence: water resources quality and quantity impacted  High confidence: impact on abundance and range of marine species  High confidence: negative impacts on crop yields more common than positive ones - Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions Impact of Climate Change on water – rising water pressure to over a hundred million people due to decrease of freshwater. – Increase in the number and severity of glacial melt- related floods, slope destabilization followed by decrease in river flows as glaciers disappear. Impact of Climate Change water cont… Climate change can affect water resources through: Evapo-transparation Precipitation Surface temperature, which affects  the vapor-carrying capacity of the atmosphere  the ratio of snowfall to precipitation, increases non-uniformly probably by about 1.5 times more over land than over ocean. Impact of Climate Change on Ecosystem Climate change is affect ecosystem through: A. Land Use and Cover Change -conversion of forests and woodlands to: annual and perennial agriculture, grazing pastures, industrial logging, and commercial plantations, followed by conversion of savannas, grasslands, and pastures to annual agriculture.  Impact of Climate Change on Ecosystem cont… B. Nitrogen Deposition The impacts of nitrogen deposition are often affect ecosystem because of concentrate the excess nitrogen from the land, as well as from sewage and industrial effluents. Nitrogen deposition and warming can have negative effects on productivity in other terrestrial ecosystems, such as moss-dominated ecosystems. This excess load of nitrogen was happened due to flooding related to climate change. Impact of Climate Change on Ecosystem cont… Global species extinctions, many of them caused by: human activities, are now occurring at rates that approach or exceed the upper limits of observed natural rates of extinction in the fossil record. Projections of future extinctions due to climate change have received considerable attention since AR4. Approximately 20–30% of the plant and animal species assessed to date; -At increasing risk of extinction as global mean temperatures exceed a warming of 2-3°C above The extinction risk rises rapidly with increasing levels of climate change, but some do not. Impact of Climate Change on Ecosystem cont… Climate change can alter habitat for species by inducing (1) shifts in habitat distribution (2) shifts in species distributions and (3) changes in habitat quality. Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Systems Assessments of coastal impacts need to consider relative sea level rise. Sea level rise due to; -thermal expansion as the oceans warm, -melt water from glaciers, icecaps, and ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, are the major factors. Ocean thermal expansion and melting of glaciers have been the largest contributors, accounting for more than 80% of the global mean sea level rise over the latter period.  Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Systems cont… Global mean sea level rose; at a mean rate of 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm yr–1 between 1900 and 2010 and at a rate 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm yr–1 from 1993 to 2010 On shorter time scales, physical coastal impacts includes: flood, erosion,  coastal flooding arise from severe storm induced surges, wave overtopping, and  rainfall runoff. On longer time scales, wind and wave climate change can cause changes in sediment transport at the coast and associated changes in erosion or accumulation.  Impact of Climate Change Temperature The effects of temperature on ecosystems largely result from organism responses. This requires that information on organisms’ thermal sensitivities, limits, and functional properties. Climate change temperature affects: species distributions, abundances, diversity,  cont… trophic interactions, community assemblages, risks of species extinctions, and ecosystem functioning. Organisms also respond to temperature-driven changes in the physical environment such as: stratification, reduced sea ice cover, and  freshening. Impact of Climate Change by Temperature cont… -Warming above the global mean; The 2016 January–November global temperature was the highest on record at 0.94°C (1.69°F) above 20th century average- exceeded 2015 by 0.07°C -0.13°F) 2015 was 39th consecutive year and 2016 will be the 40th that global temperature was above historic average. Average global sea surface temperature was highest in 137-year record, at 0.76°C (1.37°F) above average, surpassing record set in 2016 of the 17 warmest years in 136-year record occurred in 21st century. Impact of Climate Change by temperature cont… Global mean surface temperature by 2100 (100 yr rise) RCP2.6 0.3°C – 1.7°C RCP4.5 1.1°C – 2.6°C RCP6.0 1.4°C – 3.1°C RCP8.5 2.6°C – 4.8°C Arctic set for well above average temperature rise Impact of Climate Change cont… Precipitation, snow and ice – Increase in precipitation in most of Asia. Decrease in precipitation in central Asia in Summer. – Increase in the frequency of intense precipitation events in parts of South Asia, and in East Asia. – Increasing reduction in snow and ice in Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau glaciers Precipitation will also change, and become more extreme Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 compared to 1990. IPCC, 2007 What is climate change?  Degree of climate change What is happening up to now – Glaciers Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. Impact of Climate Change cont… Extreme Events Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events particularly: – droughts during the summer months and El Niño events; – increase in extreme rainfall and winds associated with tropical cyclones in East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia; INCREASING MAGNITUDES OF WARMING INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS Impact of Climate Change Extreme Events cont… – intense rainfall events causing landslides and severe floods; – heat waves/hot spells in summer of longer duration, more intense and more frequent, particularly in East Asia. Impact of Climate Change cont… Agriculture and food security – Decreases in crop yield for many parts of the globe many millions of people at risk from hunger. – Reduced soil moisture and evapo-transpiration may increase land degradation and desertification. – Agriculture may expand in productivity in northern areas. _Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings. Impact of Climate Change cont… Agriculture and food security cont… How Climate Change affect Human health? There are three basic pathways by which climate change affects human health: Direct impacts, which relate to; -heat, drought, and heavy rain. Effects mediated through natural systems, for example, -disease vectors, -water-borne diseases, and - air pollution Effects heavily mediated by human systems, -occupational impacts, -under nutrition, and - mental stress. Impact of Climate Change cont… -Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland flooding in some regions -Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services - Under nutrition kills 3.5 million. - Diarrhoea kills 2.2 million. - Malaria kills 900,000. Why Does Climate Change Matter to Ethiopia?  Ethiopia’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is negligible, but it is affected by the adverse impacts of climate change brought by the “carbon-intensive development paths” of rich countries over the past century.  Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to the harmful effects of global warming due to a combination of: -Population pressure, -fragile environments, -dominance of climate-sensitive sectors in economic activity, and low autonomous adaptive capacity Why Does Climate Change Matter to Ethiopia? Cont…  According to the country’s First National Communications to the UNFCCC,  temperature across the country could rise by between 0.5 and 3.6°C by 2070.  during 2070-2090 is projected to be 26.92°C, up 3.84°C on the 1960- 90 average  average daily rainfall will reduce by 3.5% by the end of the century  an increase in rainfall variability with the potential for a rising frequency of both extreme flooding and droughts. Why climate change adaptation required? What has been done to climate change and variability Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects.  In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects. Adaptation - Practical steps to protect countries and communities from the likely disruption and damage that will result from effects of climate change. What has been done to climate change and variability Adaptive Capacity The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences. Understanding climate related risk and livelihoods linkages Economic condition, Social situation and Institutional capacity/strength Types of Adaptation Anticipatory adaptation Adaptation that takes place before impacts of climate change are observed. Also referred to as proactive adaptation.. Autonomous adaptation Adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to climatic stimuli but is caused by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Also referred to as spontaneous adaptation. Planned adaptation Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state. Types of Adaptation Anticipatory adaptation oAnticipatory adaptation refers to actions taken in advance of the observable impacts of climate change. oIt's essentially proactive planning and preparation for the future. oInstead of reacting to climate change after it has caused problems, anticipatory adaptation aims to predict potential future impacts and take steps to minimize or avoid those impacts beforehand. Examples: Infrastructure development: Building seawalls or elevating infrastructure in coastal areas to protect against sea-level rise. Anticipatory adaptation cont… Water resource management: Implementing drought-resistant crops or improving water storage and distribution systems to prepare for potential water shortages. Land-use planning: Restricting development in areas prone to flooding or wildfires. Early warning systems: Developing and implementing systems to provide timely warnings of extreme weather events like hurricanes or heat waves. Anticipatory adaptation cont… Benefits: Reduced vulnerability: By preparing in advance, communities and societies can significantly reduce their vulnerability to climate change impacts. Cost-effectiveness: Taking action early is often more cost-effective than reacting to crises after they occur. Increased resilience: Anticipatory adaptation helps build stronger, more resilient communities that can better withstand the challenges of climate change. Autonomous adaptation Autonomous adaptation refers to changes made by individuals or groups in response to climate change without any deliberate planning or intervention by governments or public agencies. It'sessentially spontaneous adaptation that happens naturally. Key Characteristics: Spontaneous: These actions are not part of a formal, planned adaptation strategy. Individual-driven: They are often initiated by individuals, households, or communities based on their own observations and experiences. Reactive: Autonomous adaptations often occur in response to immediate needs or challenges caused by climate change. Autonomous adaptation cont… Examples: Farmers changing planting dates: Farmers might shift their planting schedules to accommodate earlier or later seasons due to changes in temperature or rainfall patterns. Building higher houses: People living in coastal areas might raise their homes to protect against rising sea levels. Shifting livelihoods: Communities may diversify their income sources to reduce reliance on sectors vulnerable to climate change, such as agriculture in drought-prone areas. Autonomous adaptation cont… Importance of Autonomous Adaptation: Complements planned adaptation: Autonomous adaptation provides valuable insights into how people are already responding to climate change and can inform the development of more effective planned adaptation strategies. Flexibility and innovation: It demonstrates the flexibility and innovative capacity of individuals and communities in adapting to changing conditions. Baseline for evaluation: Understanding autonomous adaptation helps establish a baseline for evaluating the effectiveness of planned adaptation interventions. Planned adaptation Planned adaptation refers to deliberate actions taken by governments, organizations, or communities to reduce their vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. It involves a structured and proactive approach to address anticipated climate risks. Key Characteristics: Deliberate Actions: Planned adaptation involves conscious decision- making and implementation of specific measures to address climate change impacts. Structured Approach: It often involves a systematic process, including: Assessment of climate risks: Identifying potential climate change impacts and vulnerabilities. Development of adaptation strategies: Formulating plans and policies to address identified risks. Implementation and monitoring: Putting adaptation measures into action and tracking their effectiveness. Planned adaptation cont… Involves Multiple Actors: Planned adaptation typically involves collaboration among various stakeholders, including government agencies, non-governmental organizations, businesses, and communities. Examples: Infrastructure development: Building seawalls, elevating infrastructure, and implementing early warning systems for coastal areas to protect against sea-level rise and storm surges. Water resource management: Implementing drought-resistant crops, improving water storage and distribution systems, and promoting water conservation measures to address water scarcity. Land-use planning: Restricting development in areas prone to flooding or wildfires, promoting sustainable land-use practices, and creating green spaces to mitigate urban heat islands. Planned adaptation cont… Social safety nets: Establishing social safety nets to support vulnerable populations affected by climate change, such as farmers experiencing crop failures or communities displaced by extreme weather events. Importance of Planned Adaptation: Reduces vulnerability: Planned adaptation helps to minimize the negative impacts of climate change on communities and ecosystems. Enhances resilience: It builds the capacity of communities to withstand and recover from climate-related shocks. Cost-effectiveness: Proactive adaptation is often more cost-effective than reactive responses to climate-related disasters. Promotes sustainable development: Planned adaptation can contribute to sustainable development by integrating climate considerations into development planning and decision-making. EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION A MORE VIBRANT WORLD Adaptation involves; reducing risk and vulnerability; seeking opportunities building the capacity of -nations, regions, cities, the private sector, communities, individuals, and natural systems Adaptation Options; Identifying needs stemming from climate risks and vulnerabilities provides a foundation for selecting adaptation options. 1 Structural and Physical Options structural and engineering options the application of discrete technologies the use of ecosystems and their services to serve adaptation needs; and the delivery of specific services at the national, regional, and local levels. Adaptation Options cont… Most engineering options are expert driven, capital-intensive, large-scale, and highly complex. engineering options—including -management of storm and waste water flow -flood levees, -seawalls, -upgrading existing infrastructures to improve wind and flooding resilience, -beach nourishment, and -retrofitting buildings. Adaptation Options cont… 2 Technological Options Technologies range from more efficient irrigation and fertilization methods, plant breeding for greater drought tolerance, and adjusting planting based on projected yields. Technology options for climate change adaptation include both “hard” and “soft’’ technologies, and not only new technologies but also indigenous and locally made appropriate technology. Technological Options cont… Technological Options cont… EXAMPLES OF HARD OPTIONS; Adapting building to future climate conditions and extreme weather events; building flood defenses and raising the levels of dykes; developing more drought-tolerant crops; choosing tree species and forestry practices less vulnerable to storms and fires; setting aside land corridors to help species migrate. Technological Options cont… EXAMPLES OF SOFT OPTIONS; Education; Optimization of use of the resources (i.e: Water!); Setup of risk prevention systems; Protection of the environment and citizens’ health social economic welfare. Adaptation Options; 3 Service Options; provision of basic services, such as owater, osanitation, osolid waste disposal, opower, ostorm water and roadway management, and opublic transportation are integral to increasing adaptive capacity. Adaptation Options; 4 Social Options Social protection schemes, include; public and private initiatives that transfer income or assets to the poor protect against livelihood risks, and raise the social status and rights of those who are marginalized. Adaptation Options; 5. Institutional Options Numerous institutional measures can be used to foster adaptation. taxes, subsidies, and insurance arrangements to social policies and regulations. Laws, regulations, and planning measures such as protected areas, building codes, and re-zoning are institutional measures The adaptation process Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change oThere are several adaptation measures that the agricultural sector can undertake to cope with future climate change. These include: – Changing planting dates; – Planting different varieties or crop species; – Development and promotion of alternative crops; – Developing new drought and heat-resistant varieties; – More use of intercropping; – Using sustainable fertilizer and tillage practices (improving soil drainage, no-till, etc) Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change cont… – Improved crop residue and weed management; – More use of water harvesting techniques, – Better pest and disease control for crops; – Implementing new or improving existing irrigation systems (Reducing water leakage, soil moisture conservation - mulching); -Improved livestock management (Providing housing and shade, change to heat-tolerant breeds, change in stocking rate, altered grazing and rotation of pasture); – More use of agroforestry practices; Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change cont… – Improved forest fire management (altered stand layout; landscape planning; dead timber salvaging; clearing undergrowth; insect control through prescribed burning); – Development of early-warning systems and protection measures for natural disasters (droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, etc); How do forests relate to adaptation? The linkages between forests and adaptation are twofold; -First, as climate change will affect forests, adaptation measures are needed for forests to reduce negative impacts and maintain ecosystem functions (adaptation for forests). -Second, forest ecosystems contribute to adaptation by providing local ecosystem services that reduce the vulnerability of local communities and the broader society to climate change (forests for people‘s adaptation). Barriers to Adaptation of Climate change Financial – available funding may not always be sufficient to cover the financial requirements of rehabilitation, mitigation and adaptation, specifically incase of extreme events (=> Insurance may be an instrument worth exploring); – private economic interests. Institutional – Lack of administrative and/or political capacity and/or competence. Social and Cultural: resistance to adapt; Technological: lack of instruments; Informational: gap of knowledge and information. Why assess vulnerability? -To identify the extent and location of short-term and long-term threats –To respond to the impacts of natural disasters and climate change –To improve early warning systems and climate change adaptation measures –To understand the underlying vulnerability and the adaptive capacity –To assist in the identification and prioritization of current and future adaptation needs –To guide and support appropriate response measures How to define vulnerability? There are a number of different ways to define, interpret and use the terms ‘vulnerability. These differences have social, political, economic and environmental implications. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to (or incapable of) dealing with the negative impacts of climate change (including climate variability and extreme events). PEOPLE, SOCIETIES, AND ECOSYSTEMS AROUND THE WORLD VULNERABLE AND EXPOSED IN DIFFERENT WAYS vulnerability cont… Generic causes of vulnerability; education, income, health status, and responsiveness of government Criteria for identifying key vulnerabilities: 1) Exposure of a society, community, or social-ecological system to climatic stressors. 2) Importance of the vulnerable system(s). 3) Limited ability of societies, communities, or social-ecological vulnerability cont… 4) Persistence of vulnerable conditions and degree of irreversibility of consequences. 5)Presence of conditions that make societies highly susceptible to cumulative stressors in complex and multiple-interacting systems. vulnerability cont… -Vulnerability to climate change is the risk of adverse things happening -Vulnerability is a function of three factors Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity  Exposure Exposure is what is at risk from climate change, e.g., -Population -Resources -Property It is also the climate change that an affected system will face, e.g., -Sea level -Temperature -Precipitation -Extreme events  Sensitivity  Biophysical effect of climate change -Change in crop yield, runoff, energy demand It considers the socioeconomic context, e.g., the agriculture system Grain crops typically are sensitive Manufacturing typically is much less sensitive  Adaptive Capacity Capability to adapt Function of: Wealth Technology Education Institutions Information Infrastructure “Social capital” Having adaptive capacity does not mean it is used effectively How to move from vulnerability to adaptation? Thank You Very Much