Climate Change Chapter 3 - Part 1 PDF

Troposphere  Where weather happens  Location - surface to about 10 km.  Composition - unpolluted air: Nitrogen (78%) Oxygen (21%). Remaining 1% is CO2 (0.0365%), H, He, Ar.  Water vapor is an additional variable amount,.01% to 5%. Stratosphere  Where jets fly (at the bottom of it)  Loc...

Troposphere  Where weather happens  Location - surface to about 10 km.  Composition - unpolluted air: Nitrogen (78%) Oxygen (21%). Remaining 1% is CO2 (0.0365%), H, He, Ar.  Water vapor is an additional variable amount,.01% to 5%. Stratosphere  Where jets fly (at the bottom of it)  Location - Above troposphere, about 10-50 km. Very thin air - virtually no weather, and no turbulence.  Composition- Similar to troposphere, except  water vapor is 1000 x less  ozone is 1000 x greater. (‫ڡﻠﻬﺎ‬0‫ى أﺳ‬2‫ڡ‬0) ‫ٮﺮ اﻟﻄﺎﺋرات‬#‫ٮﺚ ٮ&ﻄ‬#‫ﺣ‬ ‫ى‬2‫ ﻋﲆ ?ٮﻌﺪ ﺣوال‬،‫ٮﺮ‬#‫ڡ‬0‫ڡوق اﻟ&ٮرو?ٮﻮﺳ‬0 - ‫اﻟﻤﻮ&ڡﻊ‬ ‫ ?ﺣﺪا‬.‫ ﻛﻢ‬50-10 ‫ وﻻ‬،‫ﻮ?ﺣﺪ ﻃ&ڡﺲ ٮ&&ڡري?ٮﺎ‬# ‫ ﻻ ٮ‬- ‫ٮﻖ‬#‫اﻟﻬواء اﻟﺮ&ڡ‬.‫اﺿﻄراب‬ ‫ٮﺎء‬0‫ ?ٮﺎﺳ&ٮث‬،‫ٮﺮ‬#‫ڡ‬0‫ ﻣﺸﺎ?ٮﻪ ﻟﻠ&ٮرو?ٮﻮﺳ‬- ‫ٮﺐ‬#‫اﻟ&ٮﺮﻛ‬ ‫ﺤﺎر اﻟﻤﺎء أ&ڡ‬0‫?ٮ‬ Climate and Weather  Climate = long-term atmospheric conditions  Weather = short-term atmospheric conditions  Both climate and weather are dynamic – they change with time ‫ﻄروف اﻟ?ﺤويﺔ ﻃويﻠﺔ اﻷ?ﺣﻞ‬0‫ٮﺎخ = اﻟ‬0‫اﻟﻤ‬ ‫ٮﺮ‬#‫ﻄروف اﻟ?ﺤويﺔ ﻋﲆ اﻟﻤﺪى اﻟ&ڡﺼ‬0‫اﻟﻄ&ڡﺲ = اﻟ‬ # ‫ ٮ‬- ‫ٮﺎن‬#‫ٮﻜ‬#‫ٮﺎﻣ‬0# ‫ٮﺎخ واﻟﻄ&ڡﺲ دٮ‬0‫كﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤ‬ CO2 measurements  ‫‪Evidence for Climate Change‬‬ ‫‪1.‬‬ ‫‪20th C was hottest in the past 1000 years‬‬ ‫‪2. Global temp has risen 0.6°C (1.1°F) since 1861‬‬ ‫‪3. 16 warmest years on record since 1980, 10 warmest‬‬ ‫‪since 1990‬‬ ‫‪4. Glaciers and sea ice are melting‬‬ ‫‪5. Sea level has risen 100-200 cm over 20th C‬‬ ‫ﰷن اﻟ&ڡرن اﻟﻌﺸريﻦ ﻫﻮ اﻷﻛ‪f‬ٮﺮ ﺳ‪0‬ﺤﻮ‪0‬ٮﺔ ‪0‬ڡ‪2‬ى اﻷﻟﻒ ﻋﺎم اﻟﻤﺎﺿ‪#‬ٮﺔ‬ ‫ارٮ&‪0‬ڡﻌﺖ در?ﺣﺔ اﻟﺤرارة اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤ‪#‬ٮﺔ ‪ 0.6‬در?ﺣﺔ ﻣﺌويﺔ )‪ 1.1‬در?ﺣﺔ ‪0‬ڡﻬﺮ‪0‬ٮﻬﺎٮ ‪#‬ﺖ( ﻣ‪0‬ٮﺬ ﻋﺎم ‪1861‬‬ ‫أﺣﺮ ‪ 16‬ﻋﺎﻣﺎ ﻋﲆ اﻹﻃﻼق ﻣ‪0‬ٮﺬ ﻋﺎم ‪ 10 ،1980‬أﺣﺮ‬ ‫ﻣ‪0‬ٮﺬ ﻋﺎم ‪1990‬‬ ‫اﻷ‪0‬ٮﻬﺎر اﻟ?ﺤﻠ‪#‬ٮﺪٮ ‪#‬ﺔ واﻟ?ﺤﻠ‪#‬ٮﺪ اﻟ?ٮﺤري ٮ&ﺬوب‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫ارٮ&‪0‬ڡﻊ ﻣﺴ&ٮوى ﺳﻄﺢ اﻟ?ٮﺤﺮ ﻣﻦ‬ Projecting Future Changes in Earth’s Climate We can’t do real experiments on the whole earth’s climate, so how do we predict future climate change?  Scale up from small experiments  Computer models (GCMs)  Learn from the past  Paleoclimatology and Paleoecology (climatology) ‫ٮﺮة‬#‫ﻌ‬r‫اﻻرٮ&&ڡﺎء ﻣﻦ اﻟ&ٮ?ﺤﺎرب اﻟﺼ‬ (GCMs) ‫ٮﻮٮ&ﺮ‬#‫ٮﻤﺎذج اﻟﻜﻤ?ٮ‬0 ‫ٮ&ﻌﻠﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﴈ‬ ‫ٮﺌﺔ اﻟ&ڡﺪ‬#‫ﻢ وﻋﻠﻢ اﻟ?ٮ‬# ‫ٮﺎخ اﻟ&ڡﺪٮ‬0‫ﻋﻠﻢ اﻟﻤ‬ Solutions: Dealing with the Threat of Climate Change Options  Do more research before acting – “wait and see” (current US strategy)  Act now to reduce risks because global warming would have severe impacts  Act now in same way to reduce risks of global warming because it has other benefits to environment and society (even if warming doesn’t happen) ‫ٮﺔ(ٮ&ﺼﺮف اﻵن ﻟﻠﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ‬#‫ٮﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟ‬#‫ٮﺔ اﻷﻣريﻜ‬#‫ٮ?ﺤ‬#&‫ﻄﺮ" )اﻻﺳ&ٮراٮ‬0‫ٮ‬0‫ﻄﺮ وا‬0‫ٮ&ٮ‬0‫ "ا‬- ‫&ڡﻢ ?ٮﺈ?ﺣراء اﻟﻤزيﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻷ?ٮﺤﺎث &ڡ?ٮﻞ اﻟ&ٮﺼﺮف‬ ‫ﺤﺎﻃﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻻﺣ&ٮ?ٮﺎس‬0‫ڡﺲ اﻟﻄري&ڡﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤ‬0‫ٮ‬0‫ٮرات اﻟ&ٮﺼﺮف اﻵن ?ٮ‬#f‫ﺪا اﻟ&ٮﺄٮ‬# ‫ى ﺷﺪٮ‬2‫ٮﻜون اﻻﺣ&ٮرار اﻟﻌﺎﻟم‬#‫ﺤﺎﻃﺮ ﻷن ﺳ‬0‫اﻟﻤ‬ ‫ﺣرى ﻟﻠ?ٮ‬0‫ڡواﺋﺪ أ‬0 ‫ﺤ&ٮوي ﻋﲆ‬# ‫ٮﻪ ٮ‬0‫اﻟﺤراري ﻷ‬ Removing CO2 from the Atmosphere  Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions  1988 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established, body of scientists advising UN on climate change  1997 - Representatives of 161 nations met in Kyoto, Japan for a UN meeting on climate change  Kyoto Protocol - agreement reached during meeting to reduce CO2 emissions from 39 developed countries to 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2012.  2001 US pulled out of the agreement.  Russia’s recent ratification was enough for the Kyoto Protocol to take effect.  Will there be a new post-Kyoto treaty? ‫‪ - 1988‬إ‪0‬ٮﺸﺎء اﻟ‪0‬ڡريﻖ اﻟﺤﻜﻮم‪2‬ى اﻟﺪول‪2‬ى اﻟﻤﻌﲏ ?ٮ&ٮ‪r‬ﻌ‪#‬ٮﺮ اﻟﻤ‪0‬ٮﺎخ )‪ ،(IPCC‬وه‪2‬ى ﻫ‪#‬ٮﺌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﺎء اﻟﺬٮ ‪#‬ﻦ ٮ ‪&#‬ڡﺪﻣون اﻟﻤﺸورة ﻟﻸﻣﻢ اﻟﻤ&ٮﺤﺪة ?ٮﺸﺄن ٮ&‪r‬ﻌ‪#‬ٮﺮ اﻟﻤ‪0‬ٮﺎخ‬ ‫‪ - 1997‬ا?ﺣ&ٮﻤﻊ ﻣﻤ‪f‬ٮﻠﻮ ‪ 161‬دوﻟﺔ ‪0‬ڡ‪2‬ى ﻛ‪#‬ٮﻮٮ&ﻮ‪ ،‬اﻟ‪#‬ٮﺎ?ٮﺎن ﻟﻌ&ڡﺪ ا?ﺣ&ٮﻤﺎع ﻟﻸﻣﻢ اﻟﻤ&ٮﺤﺪة ?ٮﺸﺄن ٮ&‪r‬ﻌ‪#‬ٮﺮ اﻟﻤ‪0‬ٮﺎخ‬ ‫?ٮروٮ&ﻮﻛول ﻛ‪#‬ٮﻮٮ&ﻮ ‪ -‬ٮ&ﻢ اﻟ&ٮﻮﺻﻞ إﻟﻰ اٮ&‪0‬ڡﺎق ‪0‬ﺣﻼل اﻻ?ﺣ&ٮﻤﺎع‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺤﺪ ﻣﻦ ا‪0‬ٮ?ٮﻌﺎٮ‪f‬ﺎت ٮ‪f‬ﺎ‪0‬ٮ‪2‬ى أﻛﺴ‪#‬ٮﺪ اﻟﻜر?ٮون ﻣﻦ ‪ 39‬دوﻟﺔ ﻣ&ٮ&ڡﺪﻣﺔ‬ ‫إﻟﻰ ‪ ٪5.2‬أ&ڡﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴ&ٮويﺎت ﻋﺎم ‪? 1990‬ٮﺤﻠول ﻋﺎم ‪.2012‬‬ ‫ا‪0‬ٮﺴﺤ?ٮﺖ اﻟوﻻٮ ‪#‬ﺎت اﻟﻤ&ٮﺤﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻻٮ&‪0‬ڡﺎق ﻋﺎم ‪.2001‬‬ ‫ﰷن ٮ&ﺼﺪٮ ‪#‬ﻖ روﺳ‪#‬ٮﺎ اﻷ‪0‬ﺣ‪#‬ٮ‬ Ozone in the Stratosphere: the “Ozone hole”  Ozone (O3) in the stratosphere protects life on the surface of the earth from harmful UV solar radiation. CFCs  Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and related chemicals break down ozone in stratosphere  Uses (mostly phased out) Air Conditioners Refrigerators Spray cans (‫ﻌﺎﻟﺐ‬r‫ى اﻟ‬2‫ڡ‬0 ‫ى‬2‫ﺤﻠﺺ اﻟ&ٮﺪري?ح‬0‫ﺤﺪاﻣﺎت )اﻟ&ٮ‬0‫اﻻﺳ&ٮ‬ Cleaners for electronic parts ‫ڡﺎت اﻟﻬواء‬0‫ٮ‬#‫ ﻣﻜ‬ ‫ﻼ?ﺣﺎت‬f‫ ٮ‬ Sterilizing medical instruments ‫ ﻋﻠﺐ اﻟﺮش‬ Fumigants for granaries and cargo ships ‫ٮﺔ‬#‫ٮ‬0‫ڡﺎت ﻟﻸ?ﺣزاء اﻹﻟﻜٮرو‬0‫ﻄ‬0‫ ﻣٮ‬ & 0 ‫ٮﺔ‬#‫ٮﻢ اﻷدوات اﻟﻄ?ٮ‬#‫ ٮ&ﻌ&ڡ‬ ‫ ﻣواد اﻟ&ٮ?ٮ‬ Seasonal Ozone Layer Thinning at the Poles Credit: © Science VU/NASA/Visuals Unlimited Loss of the Ozone Layer: Reasons for Concern  Increased incidence and severity of sunburn  Increase in eye cataracts  Increased incidence of skin cancer ‫زيﺎدة ﺣﺪوث‬ ‫ﺣروق اﻟﺸﻤﺲ‬  Immune system suppression ‫وﺷﺪٮ&ﻬﺎ‬  Increase in acid deposition ‫ى إﻋ&ٮﺎم‬2‫ڡ‬0 ‫زيﺎدة‬ ‫ٮﻦ‬#‫ﻋﺪﺳﺔ اﻟﻌ‬  Lower crop yields and decline in productivity ‫زيﺎدة اﻹﺻﺎ?ٮﺔ‬ ‫?ٮﺴﺮﻃﺎن اﻟ?ﺤﻠﺪ‬ ‫&ڡﻤﻊ اﻟ?ﺤﻬﺎز‬ ‫ى‬2‫ٮﺎع‬0‫اﻟﻤ‬ ‫ى ٮ&ﺮﺳﺐ‬2‫ڡ‬0 ‫زيﺎدة‬ ‫اﻟﺤﻤﺾ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﺔ‬0 ‫ڡﺎض‬0‫ﺤ‬0‫ٮ‬0‫ا‬ ‫ٮ‬#‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺻ‬ ‫‪Solutions: Protecting the Ozone Layer‬‬ ‫‪ CFC substitutes‬‬ ‫‪ Montreal Protocol 1987‬‬ ‫?ٮﺪاﺋﻞ ﻣﺮﻛ?ٮﺎت اﻟﻜر?ٮون‬ ‫اﻟكﻠوريﺔ ‪0‬ڡﻠوريﺔ‬ ‫‪ Copenhagen Protocol 1992‬‬ ‫?ٮروٮ&ﻮﻛول ﻣﻮ‪0‬ٮ&ٮريﺎل ‪1987‬‬ ‫‪ both signed by 177 countries‬‬ ‫اٮ&‪0‬ڡﺎ&ڡ‪#‬ٮﺔ ﻛو?ٮ‪0‬ٮﻬﺎ‪0‬ﻋﻦ ‪1992‬‬ ‫‪ CFCs take 10-20 years to get to the stratosphere‬‬ ‫ كﻼﻫﻤﺎ ﻣﻮ&ڡﻊ ﻣﻦ &ڡ?ٮﻞ ‪177‬‬ ‫دوﻟﺔ‬ ‫‪ CFCs take 65-385 years to break down‬‬ ‫ٮ&ﺴ&ٮ‪r‬ﻌرق ﻣﺮﻛ?ٮﺎت اﻟﻜر?ٮون‬ ‫اﻟكﻠوريﺔ ‪0‬ڡﻠوريﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬إﻟﻰ‬ ‫‪ 20‬ﺳ‪0‬ٮﺔ ﻟﻠﻮﺻول إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﺴ&ٮراٮ&ﻮﺳ‪0‬ڡ‪#‬ٮﺮ‬ ‫ٮ&ﺴ&ٮ‪r‬ﻌرق ﻣﺮﻛ?ٮﺎت اﻟﻜر?ٮون‬ ‫اﻟكﻠوري‬  Global average temperature and sea-level are projected to rise under all IPCC scenarios Temperature: +1.4 to +5.8 °C (between 1990 and 2100) Snow and Ice cover: decreases, but Antarctica gains mass (W. Antarctic Ice Sheet stable); Greenland loses ice. Sea level: +9 to +88 cm ; thermal expansion mainly Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries‫ٮﺔ وﻣﺴ&ٮوى ﺳﻄﺢ اﻟ?ٮﺤﺮ ﻫﻤﺎ‬#‫ﻣ&ٮﻮﺳﻂ در?ﺣﺔ اﻟﺤرارة اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤ‬ ‫ٮﺎخ‬0‫ٮﺮ اﻟﻤ‬#‫ﻌ‬r‫ى اﻟﻤﻌﲏ ?ٮ&ٮ‬2‫ى اﻟﺪول‬2‫ڡريﻖ اﻟﺤﻜﻮم‬0‫ٮﺎريﻮﻫﺎت اﻟ‬0‫ٮ‬#‫ﻃﻞ ?ﺣﻤيﻊ ﺳ‬0 ‫ى‬2‫ڡ‬0 ‫ڡﻊ‬0&‫ﺮٮ‬# ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤ&ٮﻮ&ڡﻊ أن ٮ‬ ‫ و‬1990 ‫ى‬2‫ در?ﺣﺔ ﻣﺌويﺔ )?ٮيﻦ ﻋﺎم‬5.8+ ‫ إﻟﻰ‬1.4+ :‫ در?ﺣﺔ اﻟﺤرارة‬ ‫ٮو?ٮيﺔ‬0‫ٮﺔ اﻟ?ﺤ‬#‫ وﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﲀﺳﺐ اﻟ&ڡﺎرة اﻟ&ڡﻄ?ٮ‬،‫ڡﺾ‬0‫ﺤ‬0‫ٮ‬0# ‫ ٮ‬:‫ٮﺪي‬#‫ى واﻟ?ﺤﻠ‬2‫ٮﻠ?ح‬f‫ﻌﻄﺎء اﻟ‬r‫ اﻟ‬2100 ‫ﺤﺴﺮ‬0&‫ٮﺪ ٮ‬0‫ٮﻼ‬0‫ﻋري‬0 ‫ٮﲀ ﻣﺴ&ٮ&ڡﺮ(؛‬#‫ٮ&ٮﺎرﻛ&ٮ‬0‫ى أ‬2‫ڡ‬0 ‫ٮﺪي‬#‫ﻌﻄﺎء اﻟ?ﺤﻠ‬r‫ اﻟ‬.W) ‫ﻛ&ٮﻠﺔ‬ ‫ ﺳﻢ؛ اﻟ&ٮﻤﺪد ا‬88+ ‫ إﻟﻰ‬9+ :‫ ﻣﺴ&ٮوى ﺳﻄﺢ اﻟ?ٮﺤﺮ‬.‫ﻠﺞ‬f‫ٮ‬