Army Problem Solving PDF

Chapter 3 Army Problem Solving This chapter describes a systematic approach to solving problems. The chapter begins by discussing problem solving as related to decision making. This chapter establishes the base logic for all other problem-solvi...

Chapter 3 Army Problem Solving This chapter describes a systematic approach to solving problems. The chapter begins by discussing problem solving as related to decision making. This chapter establishes the base logic for all other problem-solving planning processes. The chapter concludes by discussing the seven step process used in Army problem solving. PROBLEM SOLVING AND DECISION MAKING 3-1. The ability to recognize and effectively solve problems is an essential skill for leaders. A problem is an issue or obstacle that makes it difficult to achieve a desired goal, objective, or end state. Army problem solving is a form of decision making. It is a systematic approach to defining a problem, developing possible solutions to solve the problem, arriving at the best solution, and implementing it. The object of problem solving is not just to solve near-term problems, but to also do so in a way that forms the basis for long-term success. 3-2. Not all problems require lengthy analysis to solve. For simple problems, leaders often make decisions quickly—sometimes on the spot. However, for complicated problems involving a variety of factors, a systematic problem solving approach is essential. How much analysis is required to effectively solve a problem depends on the problem’s complexity, the leader’s experience, and amount of time available. 3-3. Army problem solving supports a single leader working alone or a group of leaders working together. Commanders normally direct their staff or subordinate leaders to work together to recommend solutions to problems. In formal situations, they present their recommendations as staff studies, decision papers, and decision briefings. At lower echelons, recommendations are normally presented orally. (See FM 6-0 for more information on staff studies, decision papers, and decision briefings.) 3-4. Problem solving is an art and science. It is a structured analytic process designed to ensure that all critical factors relevant to the problem are considered, and the relationships between variables are anticipated and accounted for in the solution. This ensures that the desired objective or end state is achieved in the most effective and efficient manner. 3-5. The art of problem solving involves subjective analysis of variables that, in many cases, cannot be easily measured. Leadership and morale, for example, are difficult to measure, but they may play a critical role in developing solutions to solve the problem. Problem solvers and decision makers make subjective assessments of such variables based on facts and assumptions and their likely effects on the outcome. Leader judgments are enhanced by their professional experience. 3-6. The science of problem solving involves the use of quantitative and analytical tools available to the staff. Quantitative analysis seeks to define and evaluate relevant factors or variables that can be measured or counted. Quantitative analysis can be useful for identifying trends in data sets and sharp departures from expected norms or measurements. The results are often organized and displayed in the form of charts and graphs. Quantitative analysis requires measuring or counting the values of relevant variables and calculating changes in the observed effects on the problem or variables. It is possible to predict the effects on dependent variables when changes occur in the value of the independent variables. 3-7. The structured nature of the Army problem-solving process depicted in Figure 3-1, on page 3-2, assists staff officers in identifying and considering key factors relevant to the problem. It also provides the more intuitively gifted and experienced officer with a framework for analyzing and solving problems. The 0D\ FM 5-0 3-1 Chapter 3 Army problem-solving process helps to ensure that no key piece of information is overlooked in the analysis, thereby minimizing the risk of unforeseen developments or unintended consequences. Figure 3-1. Seven step problem-solving process 3-8. Problem solving is a daily activity for Army leaders, and it is often done intuitively. The Army problem-solving process is a systematic way to arrive at the best solution to a problem not easily solved intuitively. It applies at all echelons and involves the steps needed to develop well-reasoned, supportable actions. It incorporates risk discussion and risk management techniques appropriate to the situation. Army leaders remain as objective as possible when solving problems. The goal is to prepare an unbiased solution or recommendation for the decision maker, based on the facts. Problem solving is an important Army leadership action. It is essential to good staff work and command. CRITICAL AND CREATIVE THINKING 3-9. Thinking includes awareness, perception, reasoning, and intuition. Thinking is naturally influenced by emotion, experience, and bias. As such, commanders and staffs apply critical and creative thinking to assist them in understanding situations, making decisions, directing actions, and assessing. 3-10. Critical thinking is purposeful and reflective thought about what to believe or what to do in response to observations, experiences, verbal or written expressions, or arguments. By thinking critically, individuals formulate judgments about where the information they encounter is true or false, or if it falls somewhere along a scale of plausibility between true and false. Critical thinking involves questioning information, assumptions, conclusions, and points of view to evaluate evidence, develop understanding, and clarify goals. Critical thinking helps commanders and staffs identify causes of problems, arrive at justifiable conclusions, and make good judgments. Critical thinking helps commanders counter their biases and avoid logic errors. 3-11. Creative thinking examines problems from a different perspective to develop innovative solutions. Creative thinking creates new and useful ideas and reevaluates or combines old ideas to solve problems. Leaders face unfamiliar problems that require new or original approaches to solve them. This requires 3-2 FM 5-0 0D\  Army Problem Solving creativity and a willingness to accept and embrace change and a flexible outlook of new ideas and possibilities. 3-12. Breaking old habits of thought, questioning the status quo, visualizing a better future, and devising responses to new problems require creative thinking. Leaders routinely face unfamiliar problems or old problems under new conditions. Leaders apply creative thinking to gain new insights, novel approaches, fresh perspectives, and new ways of understanding problems and conceiving ways to solve them. 3-13. Both critical and creative thinking must intentionally include ethical reasoning—the deliberate evaluation that decisions and actions conform to accepted standards of conduct. Ethical reasoning within critical and creative thinking helps commanders and staffs anticipate ethical hazards and consider options to prevent or mitigate the hazards within their proposed solutions. (See ADP 6-22 for a detailed discussion of ethical reasoning.) STRUCTURE OF PROBLEMS 3-14. In terms of structure, there are three types of problems: well-structured, medium-structured, and ill structured. The degree of interactive complexity is the primary factor that determines the problem’s structure. Another factor determining problem structure is an individual perception of a problem. Perception of whether a problem is well, medium, or ill structured depends on the perceived familiarity and understanding of the problem. (See ATP 5-0.1 for more information on the structure of problems.) 3-15. Well-structured problems are generally the easiest to solve. This is because with a well-structured problem— z All or almost all required information is available. z The problem is generally self-evident. z Known methods are available to solve the problem. z The problem displays little interactive complexity. z The problem is generally easy to recognize and place in categories. z There is typically a correct, verifiable answer. 3-16. Medium-structured problems are most of the problems Army leaders and problem solvers face. These types of problems fall between the extremes of well- and ill-structured problems. In partially structured problems, problem solvers may find that— z Leaders generally agree on its structure. z There may be more than one “right” answer. z Leaders may disagree on the best solution. z The problems require some creative skills to solve. 3-17. Ill-structured problems are the most challenging to understand and solve. With ill-structured problems— z Leaders often disagree on what the true problem is cannot agree on a shared hypothesis. z Leaders often disagree on how to solve the problem. z The problems are complex and involve many variables, making them difficult to accurately analyze. z Leaders may disagree on the desired end state. z Leaders may disagree on whether an end state is achievable. z They may require multiple solutions applied concurrently or sequentially. Problem solvers must sometimes reduce complex ill-structured problems into smaller problems. THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS 3-18. Army problem solving provides a standard, systematic approach to define and analyze a problem, develop and analyze possible solutions, choose the best solutions, and implement a plan of action that solves the problem. The military decision-making process (MDMP) and troop leading procedures (TLP) are typically used for planning and problem solving related to operations. Army problem solving can aid in 0D\ FM 5-0 3-3 Chapter 3 understanding the operational problem as described in the MDMP, or TLP, or used as a separate process to understand and solve problems. For these types of situations, the Army’s approach to problem solving involves the following steps: z Gather information and knowledge. z Identify the problem. z Develop criteria. z Generate possible solutions. z Analyze possible solutions. z Compare possible solutions. z Make and implement the decision. GATHER INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE 3-19. Gathering information and knowledge is an important first step in problem solving. Leaders cannot understand or identify the problem without first gathering information and knowledge. While described as a step, gathering information and knowledge continues throughout the problem-solving process. It helps leaders understand the situation and determine what the problem is by defining its limitations and scope. Leaders never stop acquiring and assessing the impact of new or additional information relevant to the problem. 3-20. Leaders require facts and assumptions to solve problems. Understanding facts and assumptions is critical to understanding problem solving. In addition, leaders need to know how to handle opinions and organize information. Facts 3-21. Facts are verifiable pieces of information or information that has objective reality. They form the foundation on which leaders base solutions to problems. Regulations, policies, doctrinal publications, commander’s guidance, plans and orders, and personal experiences are just a few sources of facts. Assumptions 3-22. Assumptions are specific suppositions of an operational environment (OE) or problem that are assumed to be true, in the absence of positive proof. Planners and commanders only use assumptions that are essential for the continuation of planning. In other words, an assumption is information that is accepted as true in the absence of facts, but at the time of planning cannot be verified. Appropriate assumptions used in decision-making have two characteristics: z They are valid; that is, they are likely to be true. z They are necessary; that is, they are essential to continuing the problem-solving process. 3-23. If the process can continue without making a particular assumption, the assumption is unnecessary and not used. So long as an assumption is both valid and necessary, leaders treat it as a fact. Leaders continually seek to confirm or deny the validity of their assumptions. The confirmation or denial of an assumption may require the problem and plan to be reassessed. Opinions 3-24. When gathering information, leaders evaluate opinions carefully. An opinion is a personal judgment that the leader or another individual makes. Opinions cannot be totally discounted. They are often the result of years of experience. Leaders objectively evaluate opinions to determine whether to accept them as facts, include them as opinions, or reject them. Organizing Information 3-25. Organizing information includes coordination with units and agencies that may be affected by the problem or its solution. Leaders determine these requirements as they gather information. They coordinate with other leaders as they solve problems, both to obtain assistance and to keep others informed of 3-4 FM 5-0 0D\  Army Problem Solving situations that may affect them. Such coordination may be informal and routine. For an informal example, a squad leader checks with the squad to the right to make sure the squads’ fields of fire overlap. For a formal example, a corps action officer staffs a decision paper with the major subordinate commands. As a minimum, leaders always coordinate with units or agencies that might be affected by a solution they propose before they present it to the decision maker. IDENTIFY THE PROBLEM 3-26. The next step in problem solving is recognizing and defining a problem. This step is crucial, as the problem may not be obvious. Therefore, leaders determine what the problem is by clearly defining its scope and limitations. Leaders should allow sufficient time and resources to clearly define the problem before moving on to other steps in the process. 3-27. A problem exists when the current state or condition differs from or impedes achieving the desired end state or condition. Leaders identify problems from a variety of sources. These include— z Higher echelon headquarters’ directives or guidance. z Decision maker’s guidance. z Subordinates. z Personal observations. 3-28. When identifying a problem, leaders actively seek to identify its root cause, not merely the symptoms on the surface. Symptoms may be the reason that the problem became visible. They are often the first things noticed and frequently require attention. However, focusing on the symptoms of a problem may lead to false conclusions or inappropriate solutions. Using a systematic approach to identifying the real problem helps avoid the “solving symptoms” pitfall. Leaders do the following to identify the root cause of a problem: z Compare the current situation to the desired end state. z Define the problem’s scope or boundaries. z Answer the following questions: ƒ Who does the problem affect? ƒ What does the problem affect? ƒ When did the problem occur? ƒ Where is the problem? ƒ Why did the problem occur? z Determine the cause of obstacles between current and desired end state. z Write a draft problem statement. z Redefine the problem as necessary as the staff acquires and assesses new knowledge and information. z Update facts and assumptions. 3-29. After identifying the root causes, leaders develop a problem statement—a statement that clearly describes the problem to be solved. When the staff bases the problem upon a directive from a higher authority, it is best to submit the problem statement to the decision maker for approval. This ensures the problem solver and decision maker agree on the problem to solve with updated guidance provided as necessary before continuing. 3-30. Once leaders develop a problem statement, they make a plan to solve the problem. Leaders make the best possible use of available time and allocate time for each problem-solving step. This allocation provides a series of deadlines to meet in solving the problem. Leaders use reverse planning to prepare their problem solving timeline. They use this timeline to periodically assess progress. They do not let real or perceived pressure cause them to abandon solving the problem systematically. They change time allocations as necessary, but they do not omit steps. 0D\ FM 5-0 3-5 Chapter 3 DEVELOP CRITERIA 3-31. The third step in the problem-solving process is developing criteria. A criterion is a standard, rule, or test by which something can be judged—a measure of value. Problem solvers develop criteria to assist them in formulating and evaluating possible solutions to a problem. Criteria are based on facts or assumptions. Problem solvers develop two types of criteria: screening and evaluation. SCREENING CRITERIA 3-32. Leaders use screening criteria to ensure that the solutions they consider can solve the problem. Screening criteria defines the limits of an acceptable solution. They are tools to establish the baseline products for analysis. Leaders may reject a solution based solely on the application of screening criteria. Leaders apply five categories of screening criteria to test a possible solution: z Feasible—fits within available resources. z Acceptable—worth the cost or risk. z Suitable—solves the problem and is legal and ethical. z Distinguishable—differs significantly from other solutions. z Complete—contains the critical aspects of solving the problem from start to finish. EVALUATION CRITERIA 3-33. After developing screening criteria, a problem solver develops the evaluation criteria in order to differentiate among possible solutions. (See figure 3-2 for sample evaluation criteria.) Well-defined evaluation criteria have five elements: z Short Title—the criterion name. z Definition—a clear description of the feature being evaluated. z Unit of Measure—a standard element used to quantify the criterion. Examples of units of measure are U.S. dollars, miles per gallon, and feet. z Benchmark—a value that defines the desired state or “good” for a solution in terms of a particular criterion. z Formula—an expression of how changes in the value of the criterion affect the desirability of the possible solution. The problem solver states the formula in comparative terms (for example, less is better) or absolute terms (for example, a night movement is better than a day movement). Figure 3-2. Sample evaluation criterion 3-6 FM 5-0 0D\  Army Problem Solving 3-34. A well thought-out benchmark is critical for meaningful analysis. Decision makers employ analysis to judge a solution against a standard, determining whether that solution is good in an objective sense. It differs from comparison, in which a decision maker judges possible solutions against each other, determining whether a solution is better or worse in a relative sense. Benchmarks are the standards used in such analysis. They may be prescribed by regulations or guidance from the decision maker. Sometimes, a decision maker can infer the benchmark by the tangible return expected from the problem’s solution. Often, however, leaders establish benchmarks themselves. Four common methods for doing this are— z Reasoning—based on personal experience and judgment as to what is good. z Historical precedent—based on relevant examples of prior success. z Current example—based on an existing condition, which is considered desirable. z Averaging—based on the mathematical average of the solutions being considered. Averaging is the least preferred of all methods because it essentially duplicates the process of comparison. 3-35. In practice, the criteria by which choices are made are almost never of equal importance. Because of this, it is often convenient to assign weights to each evaluation criterion. Weighting criteria establishes the relative importance of each one with respect to the others. Weighting should reflect the judgment of the decision maker or acknowledged experts as closely as possible. For example, a decision maker or expert might judge that two criteria are equal in importance, or that one criterion is slightly favored in importance, or moderately or strongly favored. If decision makers assign these verbal assessments numerical values, from 1 to 4 respectively, they can use mathematical techniques to produce meaningful numerical criteria weights. GENERATE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS 3-36. After gathering information relevant to the problem and developing criteria, leaders formulate possible solutions. They carefully consider the guidance provided by the commander or their superiors, and they develop several alternatives to solve the problem. Too many possible solutions may result in time wasted on similar options. Experience and time available determine how many solutions leaders consider. Leaders should consider at least two solutions. Limiting solutions enables a problem solver to use both analysis and comparison as problem-solving tools. Developing only one solution to “save time” may produce a faster solution, but this risks creating more problems from factors not considered. 3-37. When developing solutions, leaders generate options. They then summarize solutions in writing, sketches, or both. GENERATE OPTIONS 3-38. Leaders generate options by developing various solutions to the identified problem. Each solution should generally address the following: z Does the solution achieve the desired end state? z What actions are required or what objectives must be achieved to reach the desired end state? z What resources are required for the solution? z What is the risks associated with the solution? 3-39. Leaders must use creativity to develop effective solutions. Often, groups can be far more creative than individuals. However, those working on solutions should have some knowledge of or background in the problem area. 3-40. The basic technique for developing new ideas in a group setting is brainstorming. Brainstorming is characterized by unrestrained participation in discussion. While brainstorming, leaders— z State the problem and ensure it is understood. z Appoint a recorder to capture ideas. z Encourage independent thoughts. z Withhold and suspend judgment of ideas. z Aim for quantity, not quality. z Group ideas—combine one person’s thoughts with those of others. 0D\ FM 5-0 3-7 Chapter 3 3-41. At the conclusion of brainstorming, leaders may discard potential solutions that clearly miss the standards described by the screening criteria. If this informal screening leaves only one or no solution, then leaders need to generate additional options. SUMMARIZE THE SOLUTION IN WRITING AND SKETCHES 3-42. After generating options, a recorder accurately records each possible solution. The solution statement clearly portrays how the action or actions solve the problem. In some circumstances, the solution statement may be a single sentence. For example, it might be “Provide tribal leader with the means to dig a well.” In other circumstances, the solution statement may require more detail, including sketches or concept diagrams. For example, if the problem is to develop a multipurpose small-arms range, leaders may choose to portray each solution with a narrative and a separate sketch or blueprint of each proposed range. ANALYZE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS 3-43. Having identified possible solutions, leaders analyze each one to determine its merits and drawbacks. If criteria are well defined, including a careful selection of benchmarks, analysis is greatly simplified. 3-44. Leaders use screening criteria and benchmarks to analyze possible solutions. They apply screening criteria to judge whether a solution meets minimum requirements. For quantitative criteria, they measure, compute, or estimate the raw data values for each solution and each criterion. In analyzing solutions that involve predicting future events, they use war gaming, models, and simulations to visualize events and estimate raw data values for use in analysis. Once raw data values have been determined, the leader judges them against applicable screening criteria to determine if a possible solution merits further consideration. Leaders screen out any solution that fails to meet or exceeds the set threshold of one or more screening criteria. 3-45. After applying the screening criteria to all possible solutions, leaders use benchmarks to judge them with respect to the desired end state. Data values that meet or exceed the benchmark indicate that the possible solution achieves the desired end state. Data values that fail to meet the benchmark indicate a poor solution that fails to achieve the desired end state. For each solution, leaders list the areas in which analysis reveals it to be good or not good. Sometimes the considered solutions fail to reach the benchmark. When this occurs, the leader points out the failure to the decision maker. 3-46. Leaders carefully avoid comparing solutions during analysis. Comparing solutions during analysis undermines the integrity of the process and tempts problem solvers to jump to conclusions. They examine each possible solution independently to identify its strengths and weaknesses. They are also careful not to introduce new criteria. COMPARE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS 3-47. During this step, leaders compare each solution against the others to determine the optimum one. Comparing solutions identifies which solution best solves the problem based on the evaluation criteria. Leaders use any comparison technique that helps reach the best recommendation. The most common technique is a decision matrix. (See Appendix F for more information on decision matrices.) 3-48. Quantitative techniques (such as decision matrices, select weights, and sensitivity analyses) may be used to support comparisons. However, these are the tools to support the analysis and comparison. They are not the analysis and comparison themselves. The quantitative techniques should be summarized clearly so the reader need not refer to an attachment for the results. MAKE AND IMPLEMENT THE DECISION 3-49. After completing their analysis and comparison, leaders identify the preferred solution. If a superior assigned the problem, leaders prepare the required products (verbal, written, or both) needed to present the recommendation to the decision maker. Before presenting the findings and a recommendation, leaders coordinate their recommendation with those affected by the problem or the solutions. In formal situations, 3-8 FM 5-0 0D\  Army Problem Solving leaders present their findings and recommendations to the decision maker as staff studies, decision papers, or decision briefings. 3-50. A good solution can be lost if the leader cannot persuade the audience and decision maker that it is correct. Every problem requires both a solution and the ability to communicate the solution clearly and effectively. The writing and briefing skills a leader possesses may ultimately be as important as good problem-solving skills. 3-51. Based on the decision and final guidance, leaders refine the solution and prepare necessary implementing instructions. Formal implementing instructions can be issued as a memorandum of instruction, policy letter, or command directive. Once leaders have given instructions, they monitor their implementation and compare results to the measure of success and the desired end state established in the approved solution. When necessary, they issue additional instructions. 3-52. A feedback system that provides timely and accurate information, periodic review, and the flexibility to adjust must also be built into the implementation plan. Leaders stay involved and carefully avoid creating new problems because of uncoordinated implementation of the solution. Army problem solving does not end with identifying the best solution or obtaining approval of a recommendation. It ends when the problem is solved. 0D\ FM 5-0 3-9