Topics In Economics And Environment (Jour) PDF

Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) Philippe Roman ICHEC Brussels Management School 2024-2025 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 1 2. Economies and the environment Required readings for this chapter: ✓ Miranda Cunha Tenorio and Go...

Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) Philippe Roman ICHEC Brussels Management School 2024-2025 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 1 2. Economies and the environment Required readings for this chapter: ✓ Miranda Cunha Tenorio and Gomez-Baggethun (2024) ✓ The Economist November 12th 2022, “Green Light” (2022) ✓ Kuper, “The myth of green growth”, Financial Times (2019) Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 2  We are here Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 3 Resource scarcity vs toxic abundance Are we (really) running out of natural resources? The Simon-Ehrlich bet: Ehrlich thought natural resource limits would soon hit the economy with rising prices; Simon thought that human ingenuity and technological progress would on the contrary drive prices down. → Who won? Problems of pollution and sinks are probably more pressing than the depletion of resources. → We should leave substantial amounts of oil, coal, gas etc. in the soil! Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 4  Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 5 Source: Core-econ  High climate stakes: a reminder Climate change: where do we stand, and where are we heading ? Go to climateactiontracker.org Select the country of your choice and look at country emissions and country rating. Get familiar with the graph dimensions, variables, data… → Do you understand the information displayed in graphs and tables? → What does a “fair share target” mean? → Where does your chosen country stand? Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 6 2.1. Impacts of the economy on the environment Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 7 2.1. Impacts of the economy on the environment 2.1.1. Multifaceted impacts 2.1.2. Assessing impacts 2.1.3. Decoupling, the EKC and green growth 2.1.4. Unintended effects of eco-efficiency 2.1.5. Efficiency vs sufficiency & supply-side vs demand-side solutions Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 8 2.1.1. Multifaceted impacts Impacts and their indicators: a first overview Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 9 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 10  Planetary boundaries and scenarios Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 11 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 12 Two centuries of growth in energy consumption Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 13 Environmental pressure indicators: some key issues What unit? → “Natural” unit of the pressure/pollution? Ex.: kgs of chemicals released in water or soil. → Beware! Very often, conversion parameters are used to use a same measurement unit for different things/sources of pressure/pollution. Ex.: CH4, N2O and CO2 are all greenhouse gases, but with different properties and effects on the atmosphere ; their ‘global warming potential’ is used to convert them into comparable “CO2 equivalents”. Aggregation into a widely/easily-understandable pressure indicator? → Ex.: ecological footprint with the concept of ‘biocapacity’ and ‘global hectares’ Indices vs accounts → Accounts: GHG inventories, ecological footprint, Living Planet Index, Material flows… → Indices: SDG Index, Environmental Performance Index… Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 14 Environmental pressure indicators: some key issues Territory-based or consumption-based? → Key question = who is responsible for emissions? → Are you responsible for carbon emitted in India or China during the production of the T-shirt you just bought? → At the diplomatic / international level, GHG emissions have traditionally been accounted for and negotiated in terms of territory-based emissions. → Important progress over the last years in introducing consumption-based data, indicators, but also abatement commitments. Carbon territorial emissions vs carbon footprint Domestic material extraction vs material footprint Domestic water withdrawal vs water footprint Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 15 Growing extraction of materials Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 16 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 17 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 18 The various environmental impacts of metal production Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 19 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 20 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 21 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 22 Global ecological footprint vs biocapacity Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 23 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 24 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 25 CO2 emissions and atmospheric concentration Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 26 Source: Core-econ  Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 27 Source: Core-econ Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 28 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 29  Global Fossil CO2 Emissions Global fossil CO2 emissions: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2021, 63% over 1990 Projection for 2022: 37.5 ± 2 GtCO2, 1.0% [0.1% to +1.9%] higher than 2021 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range) When including cement carbonation, the 2021 and 2022 estimates amount to 36.3 ± 2 GtCO2 and 36.6 ± 2 GtCO2 respectively The 2022 projection is based on preliminary data and modelling. Source: Friedlingstein et al 2022; Global Carbon Project 2022 Total global emissions Total global emissions: 41.1 ± 3.3 GtCO2 in 2021, 49% over 1990 Percentage land-use change: 41% in 1960, 11% averaged 2012–2021 Land-use change estimates from three bookkeeping models, using fire-based variability from 1997 Source: Friedlingstein et al 2022; Global Carbon Project 2022  Global carbon budget The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1850 The carbon imbalance represents the gap in our current understanding of sources & sinks Source: Friedlingstein et al 2022; Global Carbon Project 2022 Source: Emissions Gap Report 2018 (UNEP) Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 33  What it would take to reach the 1.5°C or 2°C targets: steep and immediate decline in CO2 emissions CO2 mitigation curves for 1.5°C and 2°C. Source: Topics Global in Economics Carbon(Jour) and Environment Budget (2018) 2024-2025 34 CO2 emissions of a set of countries Source: Emissions Gap Report 2018 (UNEP) Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 35  Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 36 Source: Emissions Gap Report 2019 (UNEP) Domestic extraction vs material footprint Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 37 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 38 What indicator is territory-based? → You can find definitional help here and there. What indicator is consumption-based? What interpretation of the differences between territory-based and consumption-based environmental flows/footprints in Belgium? In Brussels? Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 39 2.1.2. Assessing impacts of economic activities Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 40 Environmental impacts along the value chain and the life cycle of goods and services Environmental impacts can be broadly distinguished along the sink and source distinction. → Sink: using the environment as a sink for waste ; pollution → Source: using the environment to extract energetic/material resources Each step of the economic process requires energy and/or materials to be sustained and generates waste. Importance to adopt a life-cycle view and a broad-based understanding of “impacts” → For ex., considering not only territory-based CO2 emissions, but also emissions abroad (the footprint approach) Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 41  Life Cycle Assessment for impact assessment of goods and services Source: https://www.nist.gov/systems-integration-division/lifecycle-graphic Source: https://ecochain.com/knowledge/life-cycle- assessment-lca-guide/ Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 42 3 ways of looking at “the other side” of consumption https://www.storyofstuff.org https://www.footprintnetwork.org https://ejatlas.org Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 43  The DPSIR framework Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 44 Bradley P and Yee S. 2015. Using the DPSIR Framework to Develop a Conceptual Topics Model: in Economics andTechnical Support Environment Document. (Jour) US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research 2024-2025 45 and Development, Atlantic Ecology Division, Narragansett, RI. EPA/600/R-15/154.  An example of use of the DPSIR framework Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 46  DPSIR and equity Source: Gupta et al. (2019), SustainabilityTopics Science, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00708-6 in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 47 Source: Gupta et al. (2019), SustainabilityTopics Science, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00708-6 in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 48 Source: Creating City Portraits. A Methodological Guide from the Thriving Cities Initiative, 2020. The Doughnut (or “the safe and just space for humanity”) framework A 360° approach to prosperity and sustainability Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 49 Mixing the Donut approach (4 lenses) and life cycle analysis: the smartphone by Brussels Donut 1: Extraction of raw materials 2: Manufacture of the product 3: Transport 4: End of life of the product 5: Use of the product Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 50 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 51 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 52 The drivers of impacts at the macro level: the IPAT identity I=PxAxT where: I = impact P = population A = affluence (GDP/population) T = technology (impact/GDP) Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 53  The drivers of CO2 emissions: the Kaya identity The IPAT identity applied to CO2 emissions: 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐶𝑂2 𝐶𝑂2 = 𝑃 × × Look at Kaya identity on 𝑃 𝐺𝐷𝑃 EN-ROADS website → What is expected to drive CO2 emissions from or energy from now to 2100? 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐸 𝐶𝑂2 𝐶𝑂2 = 𝑃 × × × 𝑃 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐸 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 54  T P I A IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 55 Source: Emissions Gap Report 2018 (UNEP) Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 56 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 57  Fossil CO2 emissions — Kaya decomposition Globally, decarbonisation and declines in energy per GDP are largely responsible for the reduced growth rate in emissions over the last decade. 2020 was a clear outlier with a severe decline in GDP. Source: Friedlingstein et al 2022; Global Carbon Project 2022 Use of IPAT for the evolution of domestic material consumption Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 59 2.1.3. Decoupling, the EKC and green growth Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 60 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 61 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 62 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 63 What decoupling means CO2 goes down while GDP/P goes up which means that either P goes down or E/GDP goes down or CO2/E goes down, or any combination of the three 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐸 𝐶𝑂2 𝐶𝑂2 = 𝑃 × × × 𝑃 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐸 ? ? ? Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 64 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 65  Material and energetic decoupling is only relative, not absolute International Energy Agency, Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017, March 2018. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 66  Source: Wiedmann et al., 2020, Scientists’ warning on affluence, Nature Communications. Is the decoupling of CO2 and material footprint a reality? Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 67  A synthesis of scientific literature on decoupling Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 68 Source: Jancovici.com ; data from: TopicsBP Statistical in Economics Review and and Environment (Jour)World Bank 2024-2025 69  Global Fossil CO2 Emissions For the last 100 years, it has generally taken a crisis to drive global emissions reductions. To stabilise temperatures, intentional, planned, sustained global reductions must begin. The 2022 projection is based on preliminary data and modelling. Source: Friedlingstein et al 2022; Global Carbon Project 2022  Fossil CO2 emission intensity Global CO2 emissions growth has generally resumed quickly from global crises. Emission intensity has steadily declined but not sufficiently to offset economic growth. Each trend line is based on the five years before the crisis and extended to five years after. Economic activity is measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2010 US dollars. Source: Friedlingstein et al 2022; Global Carbon Project 2022 Poor prospects to run the economic machine without energy… Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 72 Material use: ambiguous relative decoupling Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 73 A flavour of efforts to come… Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 74  Source: https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gdp-long-term-forecast.htm Do these scenarios and projections square with the need toEnvironment Topics in Economics and reduce (Jour) CO22024-2025 emissions by 90% by 2050? 75 What decoupling means CO2 goes down while GDP/P goes up which means that either P goes down or E/GDP goes down or CO2/E goes down, or any combination of the three 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐸 𝐶𝑂2 𝐶𝑂2 = 𝑃 × × × 𝑃 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐸 / 10 X2 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 76 What decoupling means 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐸 𝐶𝑂2 𝐶𝑂2 = 𝑃 × × × 𝑃 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐸 𝑪𝑶𝟐 If CO2 is to be cut by 90% (/10) and GDP is to double (X2), must then 𝑮𝑫𝑷 be cut by 95% (/20). → By 2050, each unit of GDP that is produced should generate only 5% of the amount of CO2 it currently emits. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 77  Decoupling through services? Source: Fix, B., 2019, “Dematerialization Through Services: Evaluating the Evidence”, BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, 4:6. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 78 (Blind?) faith in progress: the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is a hypothesized relationship between various indicators of environmental degradation and per capita income. In the early stages of economic growth, pollution emissions increase and environmental quality declines, but beyond some level of per capita income the trend reverses, so that at high income levels, economic growth leads to environmental improvement. The EKC has been the dominant approach among economists to modeling ambient pollution concentrations and aggregate emissions since Grossman and Krueger (1991) introduced it. https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary- Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 79 sciences/environmental-kuznets-curve The EKC: not working for carbon emissions Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 80 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 81 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 82 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 83 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 84 Poor prospects for the EKC… « The evidence presented in this paper shows that the statistical analysis on which the environmental Kuznets curve is based is not robust. There is little evidence for a common inverted U-shaped pathway which countries follow as their income rises. There may be an inverted U-shaped relation between urban ambient concentrations of some pollutants and income though this should be tested with more rigorous time series or panel data methods. It seems unlikely that the EKC is a complete model of emissions or concentrations. The true form of the emissions-income relationship is likely to be monotonic but the curve shifts down over time. » (Stern, 2003) Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 85 Decoupling ends from means? Instead of decoupling “intermediate means” (GDP growth) from” ultimate means”, is it possible to decouple “ultimate end” or high-end “intermediate ends” from ultimate means”, finding the best intermediate means to do so? Lawn (2016), p. 43 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 86  From planetary processes to human well-being… Source: O’Neill et al., 2018, “A good life for all within planetary boundaries”, Nature Sustainability vol. 1, 88-95. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 87  … an impossible sustainable pairing? Source: O’Neill et al., 2018, “A good life for all within planetary boundaries”, Nature Sustainability vol. 1, 88-95. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 88 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 89 Is green growth (still) possible? and desirable? Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 90 What if recycling takes off? Recycling is the most developed but also the least efficient road to sustainability and regeneration, because it entails high material degradation and energy consumption levels. It is often presented as a key solution to promote green growth. Is it realistic? Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 91 Source: François Grosse, « Is recycling “part of the solution”? The role of recycling in an expanding society and a world of finite resources », S.A.P.I.EN.S [Online], 3.1 | 2010 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 92  The need to decouple GDP from raw material consumption AND to recycle materials Source: François Grosse, « Is recycling “part of the solution”? The role of recycling in an expanding society and a world of finite resources », S.A.P.I.EN.S [Online], 3.1 | 2010 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 93 What if renewables take off? Renewables are a very promising way of delivering energy and electricity in the 21st century. They have already started taking off. But they still account for only a tiny portion of world energy and electricity provision… They display several drawbacks, among which intermittence (coupled with lack of storage solutions) and upstream (rare earths, impactful metals…) and downstream (lack of reuse and recycling solutions) impacts. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 94 Source: Emissions Gap Report 2018 (UNEP) Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 95  The green growth academic debate Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 96 2.1.4. The perverse effects of eco- efficiency: Rebound effects, problem shifting and burden shifting Can technological solutions be relied upon to reduce environmental impacts in absolute terms? Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 97  Sorrell et al., 2018, Energy sufficiency and rebound effects. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 98 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 99 Fighting the evil genius of “rebound effects”… Rebound: less than one-for-one correspondence between energy efficiency gains and reduced energy use. Backfire: extreme version of a rebound wherein energy efficiency gains actually increase energy use. Direct rebound effect: improved energy efficiency for a particular energy service will decrease the price of that service and lead to an increase in the consumption of that service. Indirect rebound effect: the lower price of the energy service may lead to changes in the demand for other goods and services. Economy-wide effect: the lower price of the energy service may be favourable to energy-intensive sectors which leads to a series of price and quantity adjustments and in turn affects the aggregate output. Rebound effects for households do not result solely from energy efficiency improvements but also from behavioural changes, such as reducing average internal temperatures. This is because the cost savings from these ‘sufficiency measures’ will either be spent on other goods and services or saved/invested. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 100 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 101 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 102  Sorrelland Topics in Economics etEnvironment al., 2018,(Jour) Energy sufficiency 2024-2025 and rebound effects. 103 Avoiding pollution transfers (or ‘problem-shifting’) Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 104 Burden shifting: The growing material and energetic metabolism in high- income countries contributes to socio-environmental conflicts around the world, especially in low-income countries. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 105 2.1.5. Efficiency vs sufficiency & supply-side vs demand-side solutions Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 106 The limits of eco-efficiency gains Eco-efficiency has long been advocated to reach “Factor 4” or “Factor 5” (reductions in the amount of resources needed to produce a certain good or service – also called “resource productivity”). But eco-efficiency is not easy to reach at full potential, it is not enough to drastically reduce impacts, and it creates side/perverse effects (rebounds and problem shifting). So, sufficiency (“sobriété”) is increasingly advocated to play a (major) part in transition scenarios. Sufficiency is about behavioural change reducing use (of goods and services) and the related need to use, by questioning (individually or collectively) the need to consume (and produce) or how much to consume (and produce). → Sorrell et al. (2018) define it this way: energy sufficiency actions are reductions in the consumption of energy services, with the aim of reducing the energy use and environmental impacts associated with those services Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 107 The 2017-2050 NégaWatt scenario for energy transition in France: a mix of sufficiency, efficiency and renewables Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 108 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 109  High leverage on the demand side Setting priorities High leverage on the supply side Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 110 Sufficiency actions also have their rebound effects! Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 111 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 112 2.2. Constraints of the environment on the economy From cornucopian utopias to limits to growth and collapse Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 113 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 114 Towards a secular stagnation? Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 115 Productivity growth in OECD countries Source : Tim Jackson, 2017, Prosperity without growth. Open question: is this related to environmental constraints / diminishing availability of cheap resources? Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 116 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 117  The “limits to growth” model (1972) Source: Charles A.S. Hall & Kent A. Klitgaard, 2012, Energy and the Wealth of Nations. Understanding the Biophysical Economy, Springer. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 118  Peak fossil fuels? Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 119 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 120 When it takes increasing amounts of energy to get energy… “EROI seeks to compare the amount of energy delivered to society by a given technology or procedure to the total energy required to find and extract, and in some cases process, deliver, and otherwise upgrade that energy to a socially useful form, that is, the ratio of energy delivered compared to energy costs.” “It is critical for CEOs, government officials and the public to understand that the best oil and gas are simply gone, and there is no easy replacement.” Charles A.S. Hall, 2017, Energy Return on Investment. A Unifying Principle for Biology, Economics, and Sustainability, Springer. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 121  Topics in Economics Source: Charles A.S. Hall, 2017, Energy Return on Investment. and Environment A Unifying Principle(Jour) 2024-2025Economics, and Sustainability, Springer. for Biology, 122 Source: Charles A.S. Hall, 2017, Energy Return on Investment. A Unifying Topics in Economics Principle(Jour) and Environment for Biology, 2024-2025Economics, and Sustainability, Springer. 123 Source: Charles A.S. Hall, 2017, Energy Return on Investment. A Unifying Topics in Economics Principle(Jour) and Environment for Biology, 2024-2025Economics, and Sustainability, Springer. 124 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 125 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 126 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 127 Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 128 Source: Charles A.S. Hall, 2017, Energy Return on Investment. A Unifying Principle for Biology, Economics, and Sustainability, Springer. Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 129 Class workshop on transition scenarios Learning objectives: ✓ Experiment the complexity of socioecological issues ✓ Manipulate a climate policy simulator with a critical mind ✓ Understand the orders of magnitude of transition variables Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 130 Workshop guidelines Make teams (max. 6 per team) Each team is allocated a simulator. Choose a country/a constituency. 10 minutes to discover the tool individually (no team chat, everyone focused on the task) 40 minutes to answer the following questions: 1. What is and what should be the transition/sustainability goal under review? 2. Is your country/constituency on track? 3. Propose a policy and actions scenario that bridges the gap between ambition, current reality and forecasted trends. 4. Justify the choice of actions and policies against feasibility and desirability and discuss the limitations (potential side effects or undesired feedback loops, political difficulties, social issues etc.). 5. Discuss the limitations of the simulation tool you used (things you could not simulate, lack of details, complexity, lack of realism, sociopolitical relevance, neglected feedback loops between variables etc.). Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 131 Let’s have a look at the drivers of climate change with the EN-ROADS simulator Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 132 The Transition Pathways Explorer of the EUCalc model Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 133 Climate scenarios: the Climact 2050 Pathways Explorer Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 134 A few recommended videos Kate Raworth, “A healthy economy should be designed to thrive, not grow” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rhcrbcg8HBw Paul Ekins, “Can our economies grow forever?” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLas-o8Er8M Dan O’Neill, “The economics of enough” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIG33QtLRyA Topics in Economics and Environment (Jour) 2024-2025 135