What is the amount of forecasted trial volume in year one for the Belgian waffle product?

Steps to Solve

1. Calculate the Expected Reach To find the potential customers, multiply the target population by the awareness level:
   $$ \text{Expected Reach} = \text{Target Population} \times \text{Awareness Level} $$
   Substituting the values:
   $$ \text{Expected Reach} = 20,000,000 \times 0.65 = 13,000,000 $$

2. Determine the Number of Customers Willing to Buy Next, calculate the number of customers who are willing to buy based on their survey responses. Use the percentages for the categories "Definitely Will Buy" and "Probably Will Buy" and adjust by the estimates provided:

• For "Definitely Will Buy":
  $$ \text{Customers} = \text{Expected Reach} \times 0.15 \times 0.80 $$
• For "Probably Will Buy":
  $$ \text{Customers} = \text{Expected Reach} \times 0.45 \times 0.30 $$
  Calculate each:
  $$ \text{Definitely Will Buy} = 13,000,000 \times 0.15 \times 0.80 = 1,560,000 $$
  $$ \text{Probably Will Buy} = 13,000,000 \times 0.45 \times 0.30 = 1,755,000 $$

3. Combine Customers Willing to Buy Add the customers from both categories:
   $$ \text{Total Willing to Buy} = 1,560,000 + 1,755,000 = 3,315,000 $$

4. Calculate the Total Trial Volume Now, consider the repeat buying behavior. The repeat purchase rate is 45%, and the number of occasions is 12:
   $$ \text{Total Trial Volume} = \text{Total Willing to Buy} \times (1 + \text{Repeat Rate} \times \text{Number of Occasions}) $$
   Substituting:
   $$ \text{Total Trial Volume} = 3,315,000 \times (1 + 0.45 \times 12) $$
   Calculate the multiplier:
   $$ 1 + (0.45 \times 12) = 6.4 $$
   Then multiply:
   $$ \text{Total Trial Volume} = 3,315,000 \times 6.4 = 21,216,000 $$