Statistics: Errors and Bias in Studies lecture 13

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Questions and Answers

Which of the following best describes a scenario where bias could influence sampling?

  • Measuring the height of all children in the world to estimate the height of all humans. (correct)
  • Using a perfectly calibrated scale to weigh lollies in a jar.
  • Drawing a random sample from a population where everyone participates.
  • Employing statistical methods to correct for measurement errors.

Increasing the sample size in a study is always an effective way to eliminate bias.

False (B)

Define the term 'standard error' in the context of sampling distributions.

Standard error is the standard deviation of the sampling distribution.

In the context of binary variables, the sampling distribution is centered on the ______ proportion when there is no bias.

<p>population</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the following terms with their description:

<p>Population Mean = Average value of a parameter in the entire population. Sample Mean = Average value of a parameter in a subset of the population. Standard Error = Standard deviation of the sampling distribution. Normal curve = Symmetric bell shaped distribution</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary reason for using a random sample from the whole population?

<p>To avoid bias and ensure the sample is representative. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a study is biased, increasing the sample size will correct the bias, leading to a more accurate result.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain how a convenience sample might introduce bias into a study.

<p>A convenience sample may not be representative of the population, leading to systematic differences between the sample and the population.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Errors that move us away from the truth, leading to a wrong answer, are often called ______.

<p>bias</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match each type of sample with its vulnerability to bias:

<p>Random Sample = Low vulnerability to bias, assuming full participation. Convenience Sample = High vulnerability to bias due to non-random selection. Sample with Non-Response = Vulnerable to bias if non-respondents differ systematically from respondents.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the implication of a sampling distribution being centered on the population mean?

<p>The sample mean is an unbiased estimator of the population mean. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

The standard error always increases as the sample size increases.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain why the normal distribution is important in statistics.

<p>The normal distribution allows statisticians to make inferences and predictions about populations based on sample data. Also, 95% of the sample means will lie within 1.96 standard errors of the population mean!</p> Signup and view all the answers

When comparing two groups, the sampling distribution is used to assess whether the observed difference is likely due to ______ or a real effect.

<p>chance</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match each term to its correct formula or conceptual definition:

<p>Sample Mean = Sum of observations divided by the number of observations. Standard Deviation = Measure of the spread of data around the mean. Standard Error = Standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the mean. Bias = Systematic difference between the sample statistic and population parameter.</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a study on the effectiveness of a new drug only includes participants who are likely to respond positively, what type of bias is most likely affecting the results?

<p>Selection bias. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A large standard error indicates that the sample mean is a very precise estimate of the population mean.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Describe the impact of increasing sample size on the shape of the sampling distribution, assuming the central limit theorem applies

<p>As sample size increases, the sampling distribution approaches a normal distribution, regardless of the shape of the original population distribution.</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a scatterplot with a regression line, the ______ represents the predicted value of the dependent variable when the independent variable is zero.

<p>intercept</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the statistical measures with their interpretation in the context of a research study:

<p>Small Standard Error = Indicates high precision; sample mean is likely close to the population mean. Large Standard Error = Indicates low precision; sample mean may not be a reliable estimate of the population mean. Sampling distribution centered on the population mean = Suggests the sampling method is unbiased.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which scenario would most likely result in a biased estimate of the average income of adults in a city?

<p>Surveying individuals at a luxury car dealership. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a study shows a statistically significant difference between two groups, bias is ruled out as a possible explanation of the results.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain how the distribution shape of the population affects the sampling distribution when small sample sizes are used.

<p>With small sample sizes, the sampling distribution tends to resemble the shape of the population distribution more closely.</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a regression equation y = a + bx, the variable b represents the ______, indicating how much y changes for each unit change in x.

<p>slope</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match each statistical term with its characteristic:

<p>Symmetric Bell-Shaped Curve = Indicates a normal distribution, often observed in sampling distributions with large sample sizes. Standard Deviation = Measures the spread or dispersion of individual data points around the mean in a sample or population. Sampling Distribution = Represents the distribution of a statistic (e.g., mean) calculated from multiple samples drawn from the same population.</p> Signup and view all the answers

A researcher is studying the prevalence of a rare disease in a population but can only access data from a few specialized clinics. What type of bias is most concerning?

<p>Selection bias (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A perfectly random sample guarantees that the sample mean will be exactly equal to the population mean.

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What steps can researchers take during study design to minimize the potential for selection bias?

<p>Implementing rigorous random sampling techniques, employing efforts to include all segments of the population, and using weighting methods to adjust for known differences between the sample and the population can reduce selection bias.</p> Signup and view all the answers

When animal studies do not check for the effects in pregnancy of a drug which then causes birth defects, this is an example of ______.

<p>bias</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the following scenarios to the most relevant statistical concept:

<p>Estimating average height of a population from a non-random sample = Bias The more people in a sample the more the data can be normally distributed = Normal curve Variability of sampling distribution = Standard error</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a study comparing a drug against a placebo, what would be most helpful in the study?

<p>Large study group (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A study can not have bias if there is a large group size

<p>False (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How might a convenience sample not be representative of the population which means a biased result?

<p>A convenience sample might not be representative of the population, leading to systematic differences between the sample and the population. This could be if the sample is of a very specific group of people not everyone has access to.</p> Signup and view all the answers

When non-respondents differ systematically from respondents, then this is vulnerable to ______.

<p>bias</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the sample with its vulnerability to bias:

<p>Convenience Sample = High vulnerability Random Sample = Low vulnerability Sample w/ Non-Response = Vulnerable if non-respondents differ systematically from respondents.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

What is Type 1 error in statistics?

Errors that increase uncertainty in our answers, leading to more variability.

What is Type 2 error in statistics?

Errors that shift our results away from the true value; often called bias.

What is sampling bias?

Selecting a sample in a way that systematically favors some outcomes over others, leading to a non-representative sample.

What is a sampling distribution?

The distribution pattern formed by the means of repeated samples taken from the same population.

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What is standard error?

A measure of the spread of the sampling distribution; it quantifies the precision of the sample mean.

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What is population mean (μ)?

A population parameter describing the average value of a continuous variable.

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What is population standard deviation (σ)?

A population parameter describing the spread of a continuous variable.

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What is sample mean (x̄)?

Sample statistic describing the average value of a continuous variable.

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What is sample standard deviation (s)?

Sample statistic describing the spread of a continuous variable in the sample.

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What is population proportion?

A population parameter for categorical data, representing the proportion with a specific characteristic.

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What is sample proportion?

Sample statistic for categorical data, representing the proportion with a specific characteristic in the sample.

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What is a normal distribution?

A symmetric, bell-shaped distribution that is commonly observed in sampling distributions with large sample sizes.

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What is a regression line?

A line that best fits the data points in a scatterplot and is described by an intercept and a slope.

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What is the intercept in regression?

The point where the regression line intersects the y-axis, representing the predicted value of y when x is zero.

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What is the slope in regression?

The change in y for every one-unit change in x, indicating the steepness and direction of the regression line.

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What is the regression equation?

y = a + b*x, where y is the dependent variable, a is the intercept, b is the slope, and x is the independent variable.

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How can a study be affected by 'bias'?

Errors that move our answers away from the truth, also known as bias. A random sample from the whole population can avoid this.

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What is Thalidomide?

A drug found to help with nausea which lead to severe birth defects because the drug was not tested for all scenarios.

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How can each distribution be summarized?

Summarized by the centre and spread

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How is the sampling distribution described?

The sampling distribution is centred on the population mean, special name so we don't confuse it with the population or sample.

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How is sample distribution for binary variables described?

The sampling distribution is centred on the population proportion.

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What is a normal distribution?

The bell curve we keep seeing in the sampling distribution follows the shape of a 'normal distribution'

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What range does 95% of the sample lie within?

95% of the sample means will lie within 1.96 standard errors of the population mean

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Study Notes

Errors in Statistics

  • Errors make answers more uncertain, increasing variability.
  • Errors can shift results away from the true value and are called bias.
  • Variability when sampling is unavoidable when taking samples
  • Bias should be avoided so as not to get the wrong answer in a study!
  • Random sampling helps avoid bias, assuming participation from the entire population.

Bias in Studies

  • Errors/bias can skew study results.
  • Bias often stems from how individuals are selected for a study.
  • Increasing the sample size will not remove bias from a study.
  • Biased samples may not represent the intended population

Populations and Samples

  • The population of interest depends on study objectives.
  • A sample should reflect the target population.
  • Samples can be affected by the exclusion of certain population groups.

Importance of Avoiding Bias

  • Thalidomide, a drug from the 1950s, was found to cause birth defects because initial animal studies did not test for effects during pregnancy.
  • Complete drug testing is vital to avoid bias.
  • Identifying bias is crucial because it can significantly affect results.
  • Study design is vital for statistical interpretation.

Sampling Fundamentals

  • Prior discussions covered sampling, populations, samples, and variability.
  • Sampling videos present populations, samples, and their distributions in three panels.
  • Each distribution is characterizable by center and spread.

Continuous Variables Terminology

  • Population is described by its mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ).
  • A sample can be described by its mean and standard deviation.
  • Sampling distributions center around the population mean when unbiased.
  • Standard error refers to the standard deviation of the sampling distribution.

Binary Variables Terminology

  • A population is described by a proportion.
  • A sample is described by a proportion.
  • The sampling distribution is centered on the population proportion when unbiased.
  • Standard error = variability/standard deviation of the sampling distribution

Sample Size Importance

  • Sample size significantly impacts the sampling distribution.

Population Shape Impact

  • Sampling distributions approximate a normal distribution regardless of the original population's shape

Population Variability

  • Different populations can have different degrees of variability

Comparing Two Groups

  • Common in health sciences: Comparing Drug A versus Drug B or Drug A versus placebo.
  • Comparing risk factors for a disease in smoking versus non-smoking and females versus non-females.

Research Question Example

  • Is there a height difference between North and South Island residents?
  • Samples are taken from populations with identical heights and those with a 5cm difference to study sampling effects.

Scenario 1: No Height Difference

  • The average height is identical between two groups.
  • The sample size is 100.

Scenario 2: Height Difference of 5cm

  • There is a 5cm height difference between two groups on average.
  • The sample size is 100.
  • One dataset is shifted by 5cm compared to the other.

Normal Distribution

  • Symmetrical bell-shaped curve describing sampling distribution is known as ‘normal distribution’.
  • Statisticians use normal distribution because of known distributions
  • Having a mean and standard deviation allows for shape depiction
  • Distribution falls within defined limits

Properties of Normal Distribution

Sample Size and Normal Distribution

  • Large sample sizes (30+) lead to a sampling distribution which follows this normal distribution/symmetric bell curve.
  • Approximately 95% of sample means fall within 1.96 standard errors of the population mean
  • In sampling distributions, standard error represents a standard deviation.

Scatterplots and Regression Lines

  • Regression line formula y = a + b × x describes the relationship between variables.
  • 'a 'is the intercept and 'b' the slope.
  • Height = a + b × leglength

Knee Injuries in New Zealand (2000-2005)

  • ACC claims between July 1, 2000, and June 30, 2005, included 238,488 knee ligament injuries.
  • ACL surgeries (Anterior Cruciate Ligament) numbered 7375.
  • Average cost per injury: Nonsurgical ($885.31), ACL surgery ($11,157.35).

Lecture 13 Summary

  • Explored when bias impacts sampling.
  • Reviewed properties of normal curves
  • Discussed sampling distribution following a normal curve is expected
  • Explained sample size and its affect on sampling distribution spread
  • Outlined sampling distribution to compare two groups

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