6.2

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Questions and Answers

What is a defining characteristic of straw polls?

They aim to produce accurate predictions of election outcomes.

They collect opinions informally from a non-random group. (correct)

They are based on a random sample of the population.

They are conducted by professional statisticians.

Why is political polling considered a complex science?

It solely focuses on predicting election outcomes.

It involves careful planning and accurate survey design. (correct)

It needs to employ random sampling to be valid.

It requires technology that is constantly changing.

How has modern public opinion polling changed compared to early polling methods?

Modern polling is less focused on accuracy.

Modern polling relies solely on social media.

Modern polling uses more sophisticated methods. (correct)

Modern polling is generally less frequent.

What role do politicians and media play in the context of public opinion polling?

They pay attention to polling results to gauge public sentiment. Signup and view all the answers

What is the primary challenge in conducting polls with cell phone users?

Cell phone numbers are portable and may lead to regional bias. Signup and view all the answers

Why might pollsters aim for a sample containing slightly more women than men?

To match demographic distribution reflective of the overall U.S. population. Signup and view all the answers

How does the sample size affect the accuracy of a poll?

A larger sample makes the poll more accurate by reducing unusual responses. Signup and view all the answers

What misconception is highlighted regarding polling results?

Question wording can influence responses, but not all results can be predetermined. Signup and view all the answers

How does the organization primarily decide on polling topics?

By focusing on immediate political and public policy developments. Signup and view all the answers

What is the common frequency of surveys conducted by the organization?

There is usually one survey in progress, with sometimes two or three. Signup and view all the answers

What is one of the main advantages proponents claim for using robo-polls?

Respondents are more honest without an interviewer. Signup and view all the answers

What type of long-term trend has the organization documented since 1987?

The rise of political polarization in public opinion. Signup and view all the answers

What is a potential drawback of automated polling methods mentioned?

Children may unintentionally participate in the survey. Signup and view all the answers

Why is it difficult to reach younger demographics through traditional polling methods?

They often screen unknown calls and prefer texting. Signup and view all the answers

What issue arises from internet and handheld polling as noted in the content?

They cannot accurately track multiple responses from the same person. Signup and view all the answers

What are two significant factors that can affect the accuracy of polling results?

Timing and human nature. Signup and view all the answers

Study Notes

Public Opinion Measurement

Polling, a relatively new field (80 years old), is more sophisticated than older methods like straw polls
Straw polls are informal polls of a non-random population/group
Modern polls aim for accuracy, but design and methodology are crucial
Early polling errors, like the 1936 Literary Digest poll, highlight the importance of scientific methodology
Modern polls employ statisticians, methodologists for accurate results
Pollsters need to identify the target population for survey (e.g, all US citizens or voters in Colorado) and ensure sample size is sufficient and representative
Random sampling (all members of the population have an equal chance of selection) is crucial for avoiding biases
Sufficient sample size produces accurate results and lower margins of error, while polls can be tailored for smaller groups
Polling methods vary—face-to-face, phone, online, exit polls, focus groups—and each method comes with its own specific issues and benefits.

Problems in Polling

Timing: Public opinion can change between survey and poll date
Misleading questions: Poorly worded questions, leading questions, and push polls can skew responses, not merely measure them
Social desirability bias: Respondents may be influenced by social norms to answer in a way perceived as "acceptable" or "correct".
Lack of knowledge: Respondents may answer questions without adequate knowledge or understanding.
Interviewer effects: Interviewer's demographics can subtly influence the responses given.
Push polls: In a push poll, rather than measure public opinion, campaign operatives aim to frame a candidate negatively.
Use of technologies: Technological advancements offer new ways to conduct polls, which present unique challenges, like ensuring valid and representative outcomes from internet and social media polls.

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Description

This quiz explores the field of public opinion measurement, highlighting the evolution from straw polls to sophisticated modern polling techniques. It emphasizes the importance of scientific methodology in achieving accurate polling results and discusses various sampling methods used to gather data. Test your knowledge on polling accuracy, methodologies, and the role of sample size in public opinion measurement.

6.2

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