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Psychology Chapter 12: Judgement and Reasoning
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Psychology Chapter 12: Judgement and Reasoning

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Questions and Answers

What is a heuristic?

  • A practical method for problem solving (correct)
  • An assessment of past events
  • A way to evaluate emotions
  • A mathematical calculation

    • What is a frequency estimate?

    An assessment of how often various events have occurred in the past.

    What does attribute substitution refer to?

    A strategy of relying on easily accessed information as a substitute for needed information.

    Provide an example of attribute substitution.

    <p>Making broad generalizations about a group using stereotypes to make decisions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the availability heuristic?

    <p>A shortcut that uses immediate examples to estimate frequency</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Give an example of an availability heuristic.

    <p>Refusing to swim in the ocean due to overestimating the probability of a shark attack.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the representativeness heuristic?

    <p>Used for making judgments about the probability of an event under uncertainty.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens in using the representativeness heuristic?

    <p>Participants assume all instances of a category resemble the prototype for that category.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the 'Man Who Argument'?

    <p>An example used to illustrate a reasoning fallacy.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is covariation important?

    <p>It is essential for evaluating beliefs about cause and effect.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are illusions of covariation?

    <p>When people believe they detect covariation even when there is none.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What causes illusions of covariation?

    <p>Considering only a subset of evidence skewed by prior expectations.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is motivated reasoning?

    <p>Biased evaluation of evidence in accordance with prior views.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is confirmation bias?

    <p>The tendency to favor evidence that confirms existing beliefs.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When judging covariation, what is likely to guide the process?

    <p>Confirmation bias.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Provide an example of confirmation bias.

    <p>Noticing small dogs as friendly and large dogs as vicious.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is base-rate information?

    <p>Information about how often something occurs in general.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Provide an example of base rate information.

    <p>Determining a drug’s effectiveness for a cold based on common recovery rates.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What produces the neglect of base rates?

    <p>Attribute substitution.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When are people likely to respond to base rate information?

    <p>When it is the only information available.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When does Type 2 thinking come into play?

    <p>If triggered by certain cues under the right circumstances.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is Type 1 thinking?

    <p>Fast, intuitive reactions and decisions govern most of our lives.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is Type 2 thinking?

    <p>Deliberate thinking involved in reasoning and analysis.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What principle does the availability heuristic operate on?

    <p>If you can think of it, it must be important.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Under what conditions are heuristic-based judgments more likely?

    <p>When made under time pressure.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What helps sophisticated Type 1 thinking occur?

    <p>Informative cues in the environment and feedback from assessments.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When is base rate neglect more likely to happen?

    <p>When relevant information is framed in probabilities or proportions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How are people more alert to a base rate?

    <p>When phrased as '12 out of every 1,000 cases'.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens when both sophisticated Type 1 and Type 2 judgments are triggered?

    <p>People realize random chance may affect their conclusions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What basic statistical concepts do people understand?

    <p>Importance of sample size.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What must be changed to improve the quality of someone's thinking?

    <p>The features of the environment.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is induction?

    <p>Making forecasts about new cases based on observed cases.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Give an example of induction.

    <p>Observing one prison guard and forecasting about others.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is deduction?

    <p>Starting with given claims and asking what follows.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does deduction help maintain?

    <p>Keeps beliefs in touch with reality.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What type of evidence is most valuable?

    <p>Evidence that challenges you.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens when people encounter confirming evidence?

    <p>They take it at face value and may reinterpret contradictory information.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is confirmation bias beneficial?

    <p>It maintains stability in understanding the world.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Provide an example of confirmation bias.

    <p>Gamblers believe in strategies despite losses, recalling them as flukes.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is belief perseverance?

    <p>Not using undeniable disconfirming evidence.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why is searching memory to confirm a hypothesis unreliable?

    <p>People look for memories fitting hypotheses, highlighting confirmation bias.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a categorical syllogism?

    <p>A logical argument beginning with two facts about a category.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Give an example of a categorical syllogism.

    <p>No geese are felines; Some birds are geese. Therefore, some birds are not felines.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a valid syllogism?

    <p>The conclusion follows from the stated premises.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is an invalid syllogism?

    <p>A conclusion that does not follow from the premises.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Provide an example of a valid syllogism.

    <p>All M is P; All S is M; Therefore, All S is P.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Provide an example of an invalid syllogism.

    <p>All Plumbers are Mortals; All Sadists are Plumbers; Therefore, All Sadists are Plumbers.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is belief bias?

    <p>The tendency to judge arguments based on conclusion plausibility.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Errors in logical reasoning are also quite _____ and so don't look like mere carelessness.

    <p>systematic</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does it mean when people show the belief-bias pattern?

    <p>They fail to distinguish between good arguments and bad ones.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is an example of affirming the consequent?

    <p>If the object is a frog, then it is green; The object is green; Therefore, it is a frog.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is an example of denying the antecedent?

    <p>If A is true, then B is true; A is not true; Therefore, B is not true.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is a conditional statement?

    <p>A set of rules performed if a certain condition is met.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How is reasoning about conditional statements perceived?

    <p>Very poor.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does the Selection Task indicate?

    <p>Thinking quality depends on content and context.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    We make decisions some _____ and some ____.

    <p>trivial, consequential</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is utility maximization?

    <p>The value placed on a particular outcome.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    You will make decisions that will give you as much _____ as possible.

    <p>utility</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What can happen if a participant receives both positive and negative frames?

    <p>The participant is likely to contradict himself.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How must you manipulate someone's evaluation of something?

    <p>Frame it properly.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens if the frame emphasizes losses?

    <p>Decision makers tend to be risk seeking.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is risk seeking?

    <p>A preference for gambling to avoid or reduce loss.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What triggers risk seeking behavior?

    <p>Financial loss.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens if the choice is framed in terms of gains?

    <p>Decision makers demonstrate risk aversion.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is risk aversion?

    <p>Refusal to gamble, choosing to hold on to what one has.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    An emphasis on reasons suggests that decision making is a _____ and _____ exercise.

    <p>cold, intellectual</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is reason-based choice?

    <p>Making decisions that feel justified and reasonable.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What are somatic markers?

    <p>Feelings associated with emotions that guide decisions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What role does the orbitofrontal cortex play?

    <p>Enables interpretation of emotions linked to somatic markers.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens to participants with orbitofrontal cortex damage?

    <p>They can't use somatic markers and miss gut feelings.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    When evaluating risks, people rely on?

    <p>Emotions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is affective forecasting?

    <p>The ability to predict one's own emotions.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why do people overestimate 'regret avoidance'?

    <p>They believe they will regret errors more than they might.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What can people usually predict about their reactions?

    <p>Valence (positive or negative reaction).</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why do people overestimate how long valence feelings will last?

    <p>They think current feelings will persist longer than they do.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the paradox of choice?

    <p>Having too many choices reduces happiness.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What tendency do people have when jumping to conclusions?

    <p>Based on small sample sizes.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What happens when people see a non-random sequence of outcomes?

    <p>They neglect sample size and overestimate likelihood.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the hot hand fallacy?

    <p>Belief that streaks in performance indicate improved ability.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What explains the hot hand fallacy?

    <p>Randomness in a small sample.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the gambler fallacy?

    <p>Belief that past frequency affects future occurrence.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Provide an example of the gambler fallacy.

    <p>Believing a high number will come after several low rolls.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Why do people conclude there are more words with 'K' in the first position?

    <p>They base estimates on how easily examples come to mind.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    In terms of pain, what do people tend to neglect?

    <p>Overall duration, focusing on the most salient aspects.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does prospect theory assume?

    <p>Losses and gains are valued differently.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What explains how loss aversion affects decision-making?

    <p>Prospect theory.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    How does classical utility theory differ from prospect theory?

    <p>It assumes decision makers value probabilities uniformly.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What distinguishes prospect theory from utility theory?

    <p>It treats preferences based on decision weights not always aligned with probabilities.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is loss aversion?

    <p>Preference for avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Study Notes

    Heuristics and Judgement

    • Heuristics are practical methods for problem-solving and learning that simplify decision-making.
    • The availability heuristic relies on immediate examples to judge frequency, impacting judgments on events like shark attacks.
    • Representativeness heuristics involve making probabilistic judgments based on how closely an instance resembles a known prototype.

    Cognitive Biases

    • Attribute substitution occurs when individuals use easily memorable information as a proxy for more complex information.
    • Confirmation bias leads individuals to favor evidence that supports their beliefs while dismissing contradictory evidence.
    • Belief perseverance occurs when individuals ignore disconfirming evidence that contradicts their established beliefs.

    Evidence Evaluation

    • Illusions of covariation occur when individuals perceive a relationship between two variables where none exists, often due to selective evidence consideration.
    • Motivated reasoning reflects biased evaluation of evidence to align with personal views and prior assumptions.

    Decision Making Processes

    • Type 1 thinking is fast, intuitive, and emotional, while Type 2 thinking is deliberate, involving deeper analysis and reasoning.
    • Base-rate neglect is common, where individuals disregard general probabilities in favor of specific information unless it's the sole data available.

    Logical Reasoning

    • Deduction involves deriving conclusions based on premises, maintaining beliefs that reflect reality; induction forecasts new cases based on observed data.
    • Categorical syllogism is a logical argument format based on premises about categories, with validity determined by whether conclusions logically follow.

    Emotional Influence

    • Somatic markers involve bodily feelings tied to emotions that assist in decision-making, especially under uncertainty or risk.
    • Affective forecasting concerns predicting one's emotional responses to future events, often inaccurately estimating the intensity and duration of those reactions.

    Risk Perception

    • Prospect theory explains that individuals weigh potential losses more heavily than equivalent gains, demonstrating loss aversion.
    • Risk-seeking behavior typically arises when choices are framed in terms of losses, whereas framing in terms of gains leads to risk aversion.

    Statistical Misconceptions

    • Decisions are sometimes based on small sample sizes, leading to the hot hand phenomenon, which misinterprets random success as increased future performance.
    • The gambler’s fallacy mistakenly assumes that previous outcomes affect future probabilities, showing misconceptions in understanding chance.

    Utility and Value

    • Utility maximization refers to making decisions that provide the highest perceived value or satisfaction.
    • Classical utility theory and prospect theory differ fundamentally in how decisions are weighted and the perceived value of risk and reward.

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    Description

    Explore key concepts in judgement and reasoning with this set of flashcards. From heuristics to attribute substitution, test your understanding of essential terms used in psychological decision-making processes. Perfect for students looking to enhance their grasp of cognitive psychology.

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