PMGT3623 Scheduling - Week 6

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Questions and Answers

What is the focus of Week 06 in PMGT3623?

  • Earned Value Analysis
  • Confidence Analysis of Project Network Diagram (correct)
  • Implementation of Project Network Diagram using Microsoft Project
  • Project Task Definition and Sequencing

Which assessment has the highest weight in PMGT3623?

  • Group Assignment Presentation (Part A)
  • Final Exam (correct)
  • Weekly Participation
  • Knowledge Test

What topic is NOT covered in Week 06?

  • Confidence calculation for Project Scheduling
  • Probabilistic estimation for Project Scheduling
  • Project Scope Definition (correct)
  • Task Crashing

During which week is the Knowledge Test scheduled?

<p>Week 07 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following topics will be explored through case studies in Week 06?

<p>Confidence Analysis (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which week is dedicated to the Implementation of Project Network Diagram using Microsoft Project?

<p>Week 08 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What percentage of the overall assessment does the Group Assignment Report Submission (Part B) account for?

<p>20% (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is a key aspect of project scheduling discussed in Week 06?

<p>Probabilistic estimation techniques (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the critical path of the project?

<p>A → F → G → D → J (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is the expected project completion time calculated?

<p>By summing the completion times of the critical path activities (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the standard deviation of the project represent?

<p>The level of uncertainty in project completion time (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the formula for calculating project variance?

<p>Var A + Var F + Var G + Var D + Var J (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of the Z-score in this context?

<p>To measure how far an individual completion time is from the mean (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which variance corresponds to activity C?

<p>0.11 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the probability of project completion in 194 days based on the given mean and standard deviation?

<p>The Z-score can be calculated to find this probability (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the standard deviation of the project completion time?

<p>9.255 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the mean completion time for the project?

<p>194 days (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the mean completion time in days?

<p>194 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the variance of the completion time?

<p>85.66 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the variance of the completion time?

<p>85.66 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does a Z-score of 0 represent in this context?

<p>A completion time of 194 days (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How much of the normal distribution curve is removed from both sides to establish the middle 95%?

<p>2.5% (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

To calculate the Z-score for a completion time of 180 days, what value is used?

<p>-1.51 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the lower boundary of the interval where the project team is 95% confident the completion time lies?

<p>176 days (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If completion time is 210 days, what is the Z-score?

<p>1.73 (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the probability of completion in 180 days?

<p>1 - P(Z ≤ -1.51) (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the standard deviation of the completion time?

<p>9.255 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does P(X ≥ 210) represent?

<p>Probability of completion in more than 210 days (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the probability that the completion time lies in the interval [176, 212]?

<p>0.95 (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the Z-score formula used in this context?

<p>$Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}$ (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the standard deviation of the completion time?

<p>9.255 (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

To calculate P(Z ≥ 1.73), which expression is appropriate?

<p>1 - P(Z &lt; 1.73) (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of calculating the expected value in PERT analysis?

<p>To estimate the average duration of an activity (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which activity has the highest pessimistic duration among the following?

<p>Activity I (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of PERT, what does the variance measure?

<p>The spread of possible outcomes for an activity duration (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which activity comes first in the critical path identified for KLONE Computers?

<p>Activity A (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the term 'critical path' refer to in project management?

<p>The sequence of activities that determines the shortest project duration (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is the expected value for Activity A calculated?

<p>A weighted average of optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic durations (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which activity's variance is given as 4.00?

<p>Activity G (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the optimistic duration represent in PERT analysis?

<p>The shortest time to complete an activity, assuming everything goes well (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the variance for Activity B as stated in the analysis?

<p>1.00 (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which activity is primarily related to staff training?

<p>Activity F (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is indicated by a high variance in a PERT analysis?

<p>A high degree of uncertainty in the activity duration (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which factor is NOT included in the calculations for expected value in PERT?

<p>Average team performance (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which activity has both an optimistic and a pessimistic duration of 15 and 33 days, respectively?

<p>Activity D (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the pessimistic duration for Activity E?

<p>24 days (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following activities is primarily focused on advertising?

<p>Activity H (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Project Scheduling Confidence

Calculating the likelihood and range of project completion times.

Probabilistic Estimation

Using probabilities to estimate project task durations.

Task Crashing

Accelerating tasks to shorten the overall project duration.

Project Network Diagram

A visual representation of project tasks, their dependencies and schedule.

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Case Studies

Real-world examples to illustrate project scheduling principles.

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Project Scheduling

The process of planning and managing the timing of tasks within a project

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Week 06 Topics

Confidence calculation, probabilistic estimation, and task crashing.

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Prerequisites for Week 06

Knowledge from weeks 2-5.

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Critical Path

The sequence of activities with the longest total duration, determining the shortest possible project completion time.

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Project Completion Time

The total time required to complete all activities in a project.

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Project Variance

A measure of the uncertainty or variability in the project completion time.

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Standard Deviation

The square root of the project variance, indicating the average deviation of the project completion time from the expected value.

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Expected Project Completion Time

The average or most likely time to complete the project, calculated as the sum of the expected times of activities on the critical path.

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Z-Score

A standardized score that measures how many standard deviations a value (like project completion time) is from the mean or expected value.

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Probability of Completion

The likelihood that the project will be completed within a specific timeframe.

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Z-Table

A table used to find the probability associated with a specific Z-score, helping to determine the likelihood of project completion within a given timeframe.

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What's the probability of completion within [176, 212] days?

The probability is 95%. This interval captures the middle 95% of the normal distribution, leaving 2.5% on either side.

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What is the Z-score for a completion time of 194 days?

The Z-score is 0. The mean (μ) is 194, and the Z-score is calculated as (X - μ) / σ. Since X (completion time) is equal to μ (mean), the Z-score is 0.

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How is the 95% confidence interval determined?

The interval is calculated as mean ± Z0.025 * standard deviation. Z0.025 represents the Z-score that captures 97.5% of the area under the normal distribution curve, leaving 2.5% in the tail.

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What is the standard deviation for KLONE Computers' completion time?

The standard deviation (σ) is 9.255 days. This value helps understand the variability in project completion times.

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What is the probability of completing KLONE Computers project in 180 days?

To determine this, we need the Z-score for 180 days. Calculate it as (180 - 194) / 9.255. Then, look up the area under the normal distribution curve corresponding to that Z-score to find the probability.

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What does a Z-score represent?

A Z-score indicates how many standard deviations a data point is away from the mean. Positive Z-scores indicate values above the mean, while negative Z-scores indicate values below the mean.

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How is the Z-score calculated?

The formula is Z = (X - μ) / σ, where X is the data point, μ is the mean, and σ is the standard deviation.

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What is the mean completion time for KLONE Computers project?

The mean (μ) is 194 days. This represents the average expected completion time for the project.

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PERT

Program Evaluation and Review Technique, a project management method for estimating project duration and cost, that uses optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic time estimations for each task

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Expected Value (µ)

(Optimistic + 4 * Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 6

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Variance (s²)

(Pessimistic - Optimistic)² / 36

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Activity

A specific task in a project

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Precedence Relationships

Dependencies between tasks in a project; one task cannot start until another is finished

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Optimistic Time

The shortest possible time to complete a task.

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Most Likely Time

The most probable time to complete a task.

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Pessimistic Time

The longest possible time to complete a task.

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CPM

Critical Path Method, project management technique that identifies the critical path and schedules project activities

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Slack Time

The additional time that a task can be delayed without delaying the project completion time

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Normal Distribution

A continuous probability distribution that is bell-shaped. It's a common distribution in many continuous data cases.

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Probability

A numerical representation of the chance of an event occurring

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Probability Distribution

A function that describes all possible outcomes and their probabilities associated with a random variable.

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What is the z-score?

The standardized score that measures how many standard deviations a value is from the mean, representing its relative position within a distribution.

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What does a negative z-score mean?

A negative z-score indicates that the value is below the mean (average).

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What does a positive z-score mean?

A positive z-score indicates that the value is above the mean (average).

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What is the probability of a value being below the mean?

Since the mean is the average, the probability of any value being below the mean is 50% or 0.5.

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What does P(X ≤ 180) represent?

The probability that the random variable X (e.g., project completion time) takes a value less than or equal to 180.

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What does P(X ≥ 210) represent?

The probability that the random variable X (e.g., project completion time) takes a value equal to or greater than 210.

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How to find the probability of X < 180 using the z-table?

  1. Calculate the z-score for 180. 2. Find the corresponding probability in the z-table.
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How to find the probability of X > 210 using the z-table?

  1. Calculate the z-score for 210. 2. Find the probability for that z-score. 3. Subtract from 1.
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Study Notes

PMGT3623 Scheduling - Week 6

  • Topic: Confidence Analysis of Project Network Diagram
  • Covered Topics: Confidence calculation for Project Scheduling, Probabilistic estimation for Project Scheduling, Task Crashing

Overview of Week 6 Content

  • Two case studies will be explored
  • Case study materials are based on weeks 2-5
  • Case studies will cover: Network Diagram, Probability and Probability Distribution, Normal Distribution, Z-score, Beta Distribution and PERT, Task Crashing

Probabilistic PERT and Confidence Analysis: KLONE Computers

  • This case study was initially covered in week 2
  • Manufacturing activities include prototype model design, material purchase, prototype model manufacture, design revision, initial production run
  • Training activities include staff training, staff input on prototype models, sales training
  • Advertising activities include pre-production advertising campaign, post-redesign advertising campaign
  • Predecessor relationship table and duration information table are provided for each activity

Probabilistic PERT and Confidence Analysis: KLONE Computers (cont...) and Facts

  • Critical path can be determined using activities' mean completion times
  • Project mean completion time is determined solely by the activities on the critical path
  • Critical path is A --> F --> G --> D --> J
  • Expected Project Completion Time formula: EA + EF + EG + ED + EJ
  • Project Variance formula: Var(A) + Var(F) + Var(G) + Var(D) + Var(J)
  • Standard Deviation of project formula: √Project Variance

Probabilistic PERT and Confidence Analysis: KLONE Computers (cont...) calculation, and Probability of completion

  • Calculating expected value and variance for each activity (PERT)
  • Calculating probability of completion in 194 days and in specific number of days
  • Calculating an interval for 95% completion time
    • Mean, Variance, Std
    • Completing the project in a specific number of days with a given percent certainty.

Task Crashing

  • Project completion times may need shortening due to deadlines, penalty clauses, resource allocation, or promised completion dates
  • Tasks on the critical path are typically prioritized for crashing
  • Crashing a task on the critical path can transform a near-critical path into the new critical path
  • A balanced approach is required between shortening a project duration and its cost
  • Crashing a project needs crash time of each activity and crash cost of each activity
  • Cost per duration calculation: (Crash cost - Normal Cost) / (Normal time - Crash time)

Case Study - Cables By Us

  • Description of 11 activities and their precedent relationships for a new product
  • A table presenting the activity, description, predecessor, and duration for each activity
  • Network diagram for the Cables By Us project
  • An alternative method to obtain the critical path in a Network Diagram

Review Questions

  • What is project crashing?
  • When is project crashing applied?
  • How to identify tasks that can be considered for crashing in a Project Network Diagram?
  • Do you need to consider near-critical paths when selecting activities for crashing? Justify your answer with an example.

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