Podcast
Questions and Answers
What is the focus of Week 06 in PMGT3623?
What is the focus of Week 06 in PMGT3623?
- Earned Value Analysis
- Confidence Analysis of Project Network Diagram (correct)
- Implementation of Project Network Diagram using Microsoft Project
- Project Task Definition and Sequencing
Which assessment has the highest weight in PMGT3623?
Which assessment has the highest weight in PMGT3623?
- Group Assignment Presentation (Part A)
- Final Exam (correct)
- Weekly Participation
- Knowledge Test
What topic is NOT covered in Week 06?
What topic is NOT covered in Week 06?
- Confidence calculation for Project Scheduling
- Probabilistic estimation for Project Scheduling
- Project Scope Definition (correct)
- Task Crashing
During which week is the Knowledge Test scheduled?
During which week is the Knowledge Test scheduled?
Which of the following topics will be explored through case studies in Week 06?
Which of the following topics will be explored through case studies in Week 06?
Which week is dedicated to the Implementation of Project Network Diagram using Microsoft Project?
Which week is dedicated to the Implementation of Project Network Diagram using Microsoft Project?
What percentage of the overall assessment does the Group Assignment Report Submission (Part B) account for?
What percentage of the overall assessment does the Group Assignment Report Submission (Part B) account for?
What is a key aspect of project scheduling discussed in Week 06?
What is a key aspect of project scheduling discussed in Week 06?
What is the critical path of the project?
What is the critical path of the project?
How is the expected project completion time calculated?
How is the expected project completion time calculated?
What does the standard deviation of the project represent?
What does the standard deviation of the project represent?
What is the formula for calculating project variance?
What is the formula for calculating project variance?
What is the significance of the Z-score in this context?
What is the significance of the Z-score in this context?
Which variance corresponds to activity C?
Which variance corresponds to activity C?
What is the probability of project completion in 194 days based on the given mean and standard deviation?
What is the probability of project completion in 194 days based on the given mean and standard deviation?
What is the standard deviation of the project completion time?
What is the standard deviation of the project completion time?
What is the mean completion time for the project?
What is the mean completion time for the project?
What is the mean completion time in days?
What is the mean completion time in days?
What is the variance of the completion time?
What is the variance of the completion time?
What is the variance of the completion time?
What is the variance of the completion time?
What does a Z-score of 0 represent in this context?
What does a Z-score of 0 represent in this context?
How much of the normal distribution curve is removed from both sides to establish the middle 95%?
How much of the normal distribution curve is removed from both sides to establish the middle 95%?
To calculate the Z-score for a completion time of 180 days, what value is used?
To calculate the Z-score for a completion time of 180 days, what value is used?
What is the lower boundary of the interval where the project team is 95% confident the completion time lies?
What is the lower boundary of the interval where the project team is 95% confident the completion time lies?
If completion time is 210 days, what is the Z-score?
If completion time is 210 days, what is the Z-score?
What is the probability of completion in 180 days?
What is the probability of completion in 180 days?
What is the standard deviation of the completion time?
What is the standard deviation of the completion time?
What does P(X ≥ 210) represent?
What does P(X ≥ 210) represent?
What is the probability that the completion time lies in the interval [176, 212]?
What is the probability that the completion time lies in the interval [176, 212]?
What is the Z-score formula used in this context?
What is the Z-score formula used in this context?
What is the standard deviation of the completion time?
What is the standard deviation of the completion time?
To calculate P(Z ≥ 1.73), which expression is appropriate?
To calculate P(Z ≥ 1.73), which expression is appropriate?
What is the purpose of calculating the expected value in PERT analysis?
What is the purpose of calculating the expected value in PERT analysis?
Which activity has the highest pessimistic duration among the following?
Which activity has the highest pessimistic duration among the following?
In the context of PERT, what does the variance measure?
In the context of PERT, what does the variance measure?
Which activity comes first in the critical path identified for KLONE Computers?
Which activity comes first in the critical path identified for KLONE Computers?
What does the term 'critical path' refer to in project management?
What does the term 'critical path' refer to in project management?
How is the expected value for Activity A calculated?
How is the expected value for Activity A calculated?
Which activity's variance is given as 4.00?
Which activity's variance is given as 4.00?
What does the optimistic duration represent in PERT analysis?
What does the optimistic duration represent in PERT analysis?
What is the variance for Activity B as stated in the analysis?
What is the variance for Activity B as stated in the analysis?
Which activity is primarily related to staff training?
Which activity is primarily related to staff training?
What is indicated by a high variance in a PERT analysis?
What is indicated by a high variance in a PERT analysis?
Which factor is NOT included in the calculations for expected value in PERT?
Which factor is NOT included in the calculations for expected value in PERT?
Which activity has both an optimistic and a pessimistic duration of 15 and 33 days, respectively?
Which activity has both an optimistic and a pessimistic duration of 15 and 33 days, respectively?
What is the pessimistic duration for Activity E?
What is the pessimistic duration for Activity E?
Which of the following activities is primarily focused on advertising?
Which of the following activities is primarily focused on advertising?
Flashcards
Project Scheduling Confidence
Project Scheduling Confidence
Calculating the likelihood and range of project completion times.
Probabilistic Estimation
Probabilistic Estimation
Using probabilities to estimate project task durations.
Task Crashing
Task Crashing
Accelerating tasks to shorten the overall project duration.
Project Network Diagram
Project Network Diagram
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Case Studies
Case Studies
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Project Scheduling
Project Scheduling
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Week 06 Topics
Week 06 Topics
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Prerequisites for Week 06
Prerequisites for Week 06
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Critical Path
Critical Path
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Project Completion Time
Project Completion Time
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Project Variance
Project Variance
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Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation
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Expected Project Completion Time
Expected Project Completion Time
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Z-Score
Z-Score
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Probability of Completion
Probability of Completion
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Z-Table
Z-Table
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What's the probability of completion within [176, 212] days?
What's the probability of completion within [176, 212] days?
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What is the Z-score for a completion time of 194 days?
What is the Z-score for a completion time of 194 days?
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How is the 95% confidence interval determined?
How is the 95% confidence interval determined?
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What is the standard deviation for KLONE Computers' completion time?
What is the standard deviation for KLONE Computers' completion time?
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What is the probability of completing KLONE Computers project in 180 days?
What is the probability of completing KLONE Computers project in 180 days?
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What does a Z-score represent?
What does a Z-score represent?
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How is the Z-score calculated?
How is the Z-score calculated?
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What is the mean completion time for KLONE Computers project?
What is the mean completion time for KLONE Computers project?
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PERT
PERT
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Expected Value (µ)
Expected Value (µ)
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Variance (s²)
Variance (s²)
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Activity
Activity
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Precedence Relationships
Precedence Relationships
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Optimistic Time
Optimistic Time
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Most Likely Time
Most Likely Time
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Pessimistic Time
Pessimistic Time
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CPM
CPM
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Slack Time
Slack Time
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Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution
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Probability
Probability
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Probability Distribution
Probability Distribution
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What is the z-score?
What is the z-score?
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What does a negative z-score mean?
What does a negative z-score mean?
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What does a positive z-score mean?
What does a positive z-score mean?
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What is the probability of a value being below the mean?
What is the probability of a value being below the mean?
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What does P(X ≤ 180) represent?
What does P(X ≤ 180) represent?
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What does P(X ≥ 210) represent?
What does P(X ≥ 210) represent?
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How to find the probability of X < 180 using the z-table?
How to find the probability of X < 180 using the z-table?
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How to find the probability of X > 210 using the z-table?
How to find the probability of X > 210 using the z-table?
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Study Notes
PMGT3623 Scheduling - Week 6
- Topic: Confidence Analysis of Project Network Diagram
- Covered Topics: Confidence calculation for Project Scheduling, Probabilistic estimation for Project Scheduling, Task Crashing
Overview of Week 6 Content
- Two case studies will be explored
- Case study materials are based on weeks 2-5
- Case studies will cover: Network Diagram, Probability and Probability Distribution, Normal Distribution, Z-score, Beta Distribution and PERT, Task Crashing
Probabilistic PERT and Confidence Analysis: KLONE Computers
- This case study was initially covered in week 2
- Manufacturing activities include prototype model design, material purchase, prototype model manufacture, design revision, initial production run
- Training activities include staff training, staff input on prototype models, sales training
- Advertising activities include pre-production advertising campaign, post-redesign advertising campaign
- Predecessor relationship table and duration information table are provided for each activity
Probabilistic PERT and Confidence Analysis: KLONE Computers (cont...) and Facts
- Critical path can be determined using activities' mean completion times
- Project mean completion time is determined solely by the activities on the critical path
- Critical path is A --> F --> G --> D --> J
- Expected Project Completion Time formula: EA + EF + EG + ED + EJ
- Project Variance formula: Var(A) + Var(F) + Var(G) + Var(D) + Var(J)
- Standard Deviation of project formula: √Project Variance
Probabilistic PERT and Confidence Analysis: KLONE Computers (cont...) calculation, and Probability of completion
- Calculating expected value and variance for each activity (PERT)
- Calculating probability of completion in 194 days and in specific number of days
- Calculating an interval for 95% completion time
- Mean, Variance, Std
- Completing the project in a specific number of days with a given percent certainty.
Task Crashing
- Project completion times may need shortening due to deadlines, penalty clauses, resource allocation, or promised completion dates
- Tasks on the critical path are typically prioritized for crashing
- Crashing a task on the critical path can transform a near-critical path into the new critical path
- A balanced approach is required between shortening a project duration and its cost
- Crashing a project needs crash time of each activity and crash cost of each activity
- Cost per duration calculation: (Crash cost - Normal Cost) / (Normal time - Crash time)
Case Study - Cables By Us
- Description of 11 activities and their precedent relationships for a new product
- A table presenting the activity, description, predecessor, and duration for each activity
- Network diagram for the Cables By Us project
- An alternative method to obtain the critical path in a Network Diagram
Review Questions
- What is project crashing?
- When is project crashing applied?
- How to identify tasks that can be considered for crashing in a Project Network Diagram?
- Do you need to consider near-critical paths when selecting activities for crashing? Justify your answer with an example.
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