Nassim Taleb - Black Swan VIII
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Nassim Taleb - Black Swan VIII

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Questions and Answers

According to the principles discussed, which aspect may lead to experts exhibiting flawed judgment?

  • Enhanced communication skills
  • Increased experience
  • Lack of awareness of ignorance (correct)
  • Exposure to diverse opinions

    • The Dunning-Kruger effect asserts that a lack of knowledge can lead to a recognition of correct judgments.

    False

    What phenomenon relates to the idea that established forecasters may worsen in performance due to the pursuit of attention?

    Tetlock’s hedgehog effect

    The term '___________' refers to the tendency of financial analysts to follow trends rather than rely on individual insights.

    <p>herding</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the following concepts with their corresponding definitions:

    <p>General Equilibrium Theory = Framework to understand how supply and demand interact across multiple markets Optimization in Economics = The process of making the best possible use of resources Freedom Vs Determinism = Debate regarding the control of human actions vs their independence Time-inconsistent Preferences = Situations where individual preferences change over time</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does prospect theory suggest about the difference between losses and gains?

    <p>A loss of $100 is less painful than experiencing 100 losses of $1.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    According to E.O. Wilson, humans evolved to be emotionally committed to larger geographical areas.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the significance of the 'Casanova problem' mentioned in relation to philosophers?

    <p>It highlights the bias making works of solo philosophers less likely to survive.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The theory that explains the benefits of experiencing steady payoffs is known as ______.

    <p>flow</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the following concepts to their corresponding theories or authors:

    <p>Prospect Theory = Kahneman and Tversky Flow = Csikszentmihalyi Evolutionary Thinking = E.O. Wilson Pain of Loss = Sapolsky</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which phenomenon explains the brain's reaction to deferring immediate rewards?

    <p>Cortical activity and limbic impulses in decision making.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    According to Thom’s classification, there are four types of jumps in discontinuities.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the implication of 'naïve evolutionary thinking' regarding selection and rare events?

    <p>It posits an 'optimality' in selection that does not hold for rare events.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which paper discusses overconfidence in predictions?

    <p>Braun and Yaniv (1992)</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The planning fallacy indicates that people show perfect planning ability regardless of task repeatability.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Who proposed the concept of the planning fallacy?

    <p>Kahneman and Tversky</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The distinction between _____ and Technē is rooted in Aristotle's philosophy.

    <p>Epistēmē</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the following researchers with their primary contributions:

    <p>Kahneman = Planning fallacy Montier = Implications of biases Bruner and Potter = Major paper on information effects Flyvbjerg = Incentives to delay</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of these authors discussed the effects of information in decision-making?

    <p>Bruner and Potter</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Catherine the Great's number of lovers is referenced in Rounding (2006).

    <p>True</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What concept is suggested by the term 'tacit knowledge'?

    <p>know-how</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The concept of _____ preferences refers to inconsistencies in decision-making over time.

    <p>time-inconsistent</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following reflects a consistent bias in people's planning abilities?

    <p>Planning Fallacy</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What does consistency bias refer to?

    <p>The effect of revising memories to align with new information</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Repressed memories are universally accepted and supported by all psychologists.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Who argued in favor of local skepticism?

    <p>Davidson</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The term ______________ refers to the effect of stories in scientific papers that can draw attention due to their narrative structure.

    <p>narrativity</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the following concepts with their descriptions:

    <p>Consistency Bias = Revising memories to align with new information Repressed Memory = Concept debated by psychologists regarding memory recall Narrativity = Using storytelling techniques to convey information Local Skepticism = Acceptance of some beliefs while questioning others</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following best describes the narrative self?

    <p>The belief that self-identity is tied to continuous stories</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Probabilities tend to be accurately assessed when not explicitly presented.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What aspect of risk does Slovic discuss in his work?

    <p>Risk as analysis and risk as feeling</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Experiments regarding the gullibility of people in social settings with proverbs began in the __________.

    <p>1960s</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following best reflects the debate on narrativity?

    <p>It relates to how stories affect human understanding and interpretation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which lever will the right brain push as the optimal policy?

    <p>A lever producing goods 60% of the time</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Left-brain damage has severe effects on children.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What is the main difference in effects of brain damage between children and the elderly?

    <p>Left-brain damage does not bear severe effects in children, while right-brain lesions do.</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The concept of __________ is better adapted to the type of randomness we experience in real life.

    <p>Tsallis entropy</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Match the following concepts with their respective implications:

    <p>Dopamine = Influences motivation and reward Entropy = Measures disorder or randomness Helplessness theory = Leads to cognitive deficits National character = Connects to the halo effect</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Which of the following refers to the overconfidence effect in entrepreneurs?

    <p>It explains the high failure rate</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The left brain is more accepting of randomness compared to the right brain.

    <p>False</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What theory has demonstrated severe motivational and cognitive deficits when people feel they cannot control their environments?

    <p>Helplessness theory</p> Signup and view all the answers

    The __________ heuristic is connected to the halo effect.

    <p>nationality</p> Signup and view all the answers

    What kind of preferences are often inconsistent over time and may affect economic decision-making?

    <p>Time-inconsistent preferences</p> Signup and view all the answers

    Study Notes

    Intellectuality

    • The survivability of philosophical works is dependent upon factors like the influence of a group of intellectuals.
    • Groups can be aggressive in pushing their own theories and ideas.

    Asymmetry

    • Prospect Theory explains that people feel losses more intensely than gains.
    • Negative events are felt more strongly than positive ones.
    • The nervous structure associated with negativity is amplified in comparison to positivity.

    Decision-Making

    • Steady payoffs tend to appeal to us because of the comfort they provide.
    • The brain's cortex is activated when choosing delayed gratification, while the limbic system responds to immediate rewards.
    • The study of the Capuchin monkey shows that they possess a similar neural response regarding delayed gratification.

    Bleed vs Blowup

    • Bleeding is painful because it produces chronic stress.
    • Companies favor stability and steady returns over dramatic ups and downs.
    • Hope offers a narrative framework for navigating uncertainty.

    Discontinuities and Jumps

    • Discontinuities represent sudden shifts.
    • Seven classes of such changes have been identified.

    Evolution

    • Evolution is not always about optimal selection, as it's often influenced by rare and unexpected occurrences.
    • Human brains are wired to focus on immediate contexts - families, local regions, and coming generations.

    Predictions

    • Researchers from multiple fields have explored prediction and the challenges to accurate forecasting.
    • These studies highlight the biases and limitations in human prediction, across disciplines.
    • The failure of past forecasts is a recurring theme in popular culture and literature.

    Information and Biases

    • Availability of information significantly influences decision-making.
    • Cognitive biases shape how we interpret information, often leading to misinterpretations.
    • Preference-confirming information is unquestioned while preference-inconsistent information receives scrutiny.

    Planning Fallacy

    • Humans consistently underestimate the time and resources needed to complete tasks - this is known as the Planning Fallacy.
    • This bias persists even with repeatable tasks.

    War

    • The presence of incentives to postpone conflict has been examined, with mixed findings.

    Expertise

    • Oskamp's work highlights the difficulties of experts in predicting future outcomes.
    • Factors such as task complexity impact decision-making accuracy.

    Episteme vs Technē

    • This distinction refers to the difference between theoretical knowledge and practical skills.
    • It's a recurring theme in understanding learning and knowledge acquisition.

    Consistency Bias

    • The "consistency bias" leads to the alteration of memories to align with subsequent information.

    Memory

    • Memory is not a simple storage system, but a dynamic process influenced by experience and interpretation.
    • Repressed memories are often a misconception, demonstrating the potential for implanted memories.

    Chess Players

    • Chess players exhibit a bias towards seeking confirmation of their strategies, rather than actively seeking disconfirming evidence.

    Quine's Problem

    • Quine's problem explores skepticism and the limitations of knowledge.

    Narrativity

    • Narrativity provides a compressed way to understand information.
    • This concept is distinct from existential views of the self.

    Proverb Bias

    • People are susceptible to believing proverbs even when they are presented with contradictory information.

    Science as Narrative

    • Scientific narratives can appeal to biases, making them more likely to be successful.
    • Attention-grabbing narratives can influence acceptance of scientific ideas.

    Probability

    • Probabilities are often underestimated when they are not explicitly presented.
    • The right brain is capable of weighing probabilities and choosing the optimal strategy while the left brain struggles with randomness.

    Dopamine

    • Research suggests that dopamine plays a significant role in decision-making and rewards.

    Entropy and Information

    • Entropy, as conventionally defined, doesn't accurately capture real-world randomness.
    • Tsallis entropy provides a more suitable framework for understanding randomness with fat tails.

    Narrativity and Illusion of Understanding

    • Feeling a sense of control over our environment is vital for well-being.
    • A loss of control can lead to motivational and cognitive deficits.
    • Recording a diary is a way to gain a sense of understanding and control.

    National Character

    • While national character is often perceived as a significant factor it's important to remember that individuals within a nationality vary widely.
    • The "nationality heuristic" can lead to stereotypical thinking.
    • We rely on "fast and frugal" heuristics for making decisions, which can sometimes lead us astray.
    • The Black Swan effect highlights the limitations of our knowledge, especially in environments where we lack data or experience.

    Lack of Awareness of Ignorance

    • People tend to underestimate their ignorance and overestimate their expertise.

    Expert Problem

    • Experts are susceptible to biases, such as the Matthew Effect, which suggests that those who are already successful are more likely to be recognized and further rewarded.

    Clinical Knowledge and Its Problems

    • Clinical knowledge is often subjective and prone to errors.
    • The role of intuition and personal experience can lead to biases and inaccurate assessments.

    Financial Analysts

    • Financial analysts often exhibit a bias towards herding, meaning they tend to follow the majority opinion.
    • Several factors influence their forecasting performance, often leading to inaccurate predictions.

    Economists and Forecasting

    • Economists have struggled with accurate forecasting, highlighting the limitations and biases inherent in their methods.
    • Even established economists may prioritize producing attention-grabbing forecasts, potentially at the expense of accuracy.
    • Herd behavior amongst economists is a contributing factor to misleading predictions.

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    Description

    This quiz explores key concepts from philosophical works and decision-making theories. It delves into how intellectual influences shape ideas and the psychological aspects of choices, particularly regarding gains and losses. Test your understanding of how emotions impact our decisions and the behavioral patterns observed in different contexts.

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