Nuclear Weapons & Proliferation

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Questions and Answers

Match the following groups with their general view on nuclear proliferation, according to the NPEC document:

Hawks = Oppose proliferation to hostile states but support civilian nuclear cooperation with allies. Academic Skeptics/Finite Deterrence Enthusiasts = Argue further proliferation is less harmful and could help keep the peace. Academic Skeptics/Finite Deterrence Critics = Argue nuclear weapons are ineffective at deterring many conflicts. Neorealists = Suggest proliferation to select countries could bolster U.S. security.

Match each country with its action or stance regarding nuclear weapons, as noted in the NPEC document:

Russia = Explicitly discussed advantages of first use of nuclear weapons. Japan = Has a large stockpile of civilian plutonium and legally clarified its atomic energy program supports national security. Iran = Its nuclear program has spurred proliferation concerns in the Middle East. South Korea = Desires to expand uranium enrichment capacity.

Match the following terms with their definitions according to the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS):

Integrated Deterrence = Coordinated use of all DoD tools alongside interagency and allied efforts. Campaigning = Day-to-day military activities to gain and sustain military advantages and counter competitor coercion. Building Enduring Advantages = Reforms in force development, technology investment, and strengthening the defense ecosystem. Deterrence by Resilience = Enhancing the ability to withstand, fight through, and recover quickly from disruption.

Match the following terms related to nuclear proliferation with their meaning:

<p>Nonproliferation Regime = International efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Fissile Material = Material capable of sustaining a nuclear fission chain reaction. Tactical Nuclear Weapons = Smaller nuclear weapons used in specific battlefield situations. ICBM = Long-range missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the following U.S. administrations with their stance on a world without nuclear weapons, according to Drell and Goodby:

<p>Several U.S. Administrations = Have stated the goal of a nuclear weapons-free world in treaties. Truman Administration = Adopted the Acheson-Lilienthal Report, shortly following World War II. Acheson-Lilienthal Report = The goal of a nuclear weapons-free world has not provided a compass for policy. Drell and Goodby = Advocate for reasserting the vision of a nuclear-free world as an operationally meaningful goal.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the following potential WMD crises with a description:

<p>Collapse of the Nonproliferation Regime = Increased nuclear proliferation and potential terrorist acquisition of nuclear weapons. Failed WMD-Armed State = WMD falling into the hands of hostile factions or non-state actors due to a state's political collapse. Biological Terror Campaign = A large-scale release of aerosolized anthrax. Nuclear Detonation in a U.S. City = Catastrophic nuclear attack on a major U.S. urban center.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match each country or entity with its specific activity related to biological weapons, as reported in the provided texts:

<p>Japan = Used biological weapons against Chinese civilians during the 1940s. Soviet Union = Continued its biological weapons program secretly after signing the BWC. Rajneeshees = Contaminated food with Salmonella in Oregon in 1984. Iraq = Developed Al Husayn missile warheads to deliver biological agents.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match each historical effort with its aim regarding biological weapons:

<p>1925 Geneva Protocol = Banned the use of bacteriological methods of warfare. 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) = Prohibited development, production, and stockpiling of biological and toxin weapons. Australia Group = Sought to control exports contributing to the spread of chemical and biological weapons. UN Security Council Resolution 1540 = Focused to prevent non-state actors from acquiring WMD.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match weapon violence categorization with its definition:

<p>Biological Warfare = Use of biological weapons by states against other states. Bioterrorism = Use of biological weapons by terrorist groups. Biocrimes = Criminal use of biological weapons for gain, revenge, or pathology. Dual-Use Technology = Technology with legitimate commercial, scientific, or medical uses that makes acquiring the foundational capabilities for BW easier</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the following aspects of the US response to WMD threats with its shortfall identified in the report:

<p>WMD Elimination = Lack of sufficient military units to secure WMD programs. Consequence Management = Insufficient emergency response teams with WMD capabilities. Attribution = Challenges in identifying the source of a WMD attack. Leadership = A deemphasis on nculear missions since the end of the Cold war has resulted in few general and flag officers having significant WMD expertise.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the steps to improve U.S. preparedness:

<p>Strengthening Nonproliferation Efforts = Dissuade allies from developing nuclear capabilities. Enhancing Capabilities = Invest in WMD detection, interdiction, elimination, and counterforce. Improving Coordination = Inventory counter-WMD forces. Bolstering Deterrence = Review and strenghten US declaratory policy.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the following challenges and changes:

<p>Decisive Decade = Significant geopolitical, technological, economic, and environmental shifts. Pacing Challenge = The the People's Republic of China (PRC). Acute Threat = Russia's Evolving Security Environment = The interconnectedness of challenges stemming from a shifting balance of military capabilities.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the actions with states or regions:

<p>East Asia = Potential for a nuclear arms race driven by China and Japan. South Asia = Rivalry between India and Pakistan. Middle East = Nuclear Program has spurred proliferation concerns. Europe = Commitment to NATO, focusing in interoperability and countering Russian threats.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the four potential WMD crises with the action.

<p>Collapse of the Nonproliferation Regime = Characterized by increased nuclear proliferation, potential terrorist acquisition of nuclear weapons. Failed WMD-armed State = A scenario where a state possessing nuclear,chemical, and biological weapons collapses Biological Terror Campaign = A large-scale release of aerosolized anthrax within the United states. Nuclear Detonation in a U.S. City = Cataastrophic scenario of a nuclear attack on a major U.S urban center.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the action with what it is increasing.

<p>the development of tactical nuclear weapons and Cold Start doctrines = increases the risk of escalation Japan's desire for enrichment and reprocessing capabilities and China's nuclear modernization = contribute to regional tensions. the sharing of 'peaceful' nuclear technology with proliferation-prone states = can bring them to the 'very brink of acquiring bombs.' The proliferation of long-range missiles = increases the number of actors that can play a role in regional disputes'</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the type of goal and its description.

<p>The Declared but Inactive Goals = While the goal of a nuclear weapons-free world has been stated by several U.S administration and included in treaties. Prevailing View of Nuclear Deterrence = Acknowleges that widely accepted belief that nuclear weapons are necessary for effective deterrence againist attack. Progress must be facilitated by a statement of Ultimate Goal = Indeed, this is the only way to build the kind ofinternational trust and broad cooperation that will be required to effectively address today's threats. The Importance of the ultimate goal = The authors argue that clearly stating the ultimate goal of a nuclear-free world is essential for building the necessary international trust and cooperation to effectively address current nuclear threats.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the concern with what it increases:

<p>Addressing Concerns about Verification and Breakout = Drell and Goodby acknowledge the challenges of verification, particularly regarding non-deployed weapons. The Limitations of Nuclear Deterrence in a Proliferated World = The authors argue that the relative stability of Cold War era U.S -Soviet nuclear deterrence, under unique circumstances, cannot be assumed to hold. The Role of Expectations and Political Will = The article emphasizes that expectations about the future role and legitimacy of nuclear weapons influence national decision-making. The Necessity of the Vision for Progress = The authors conclude that the vision of a world without nuclear weapons is a necessary contidion for making progress on practical steps towards reducing nuclear dangers and achieving interational cooperation.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the view and who is it from:

<h1>A Counter Argument for Pursuing Elimination = Drell and Goodby advocate for reasserting the vision of a nuclear-free world as an opertionally meaningful goal</h1> <p>Practical Steps Towards Reduction = The authors disagree with the notion that persuing complete elimination would detract from practical arms contol. Shared Grounds with Realists on near term actions = Notably, the authors agree with those who prioritize more modest goals (like former Secrectary of Defense Harold Brown) on the need for immediate practical steps to reduce nuclear dangers</p> Signup and view all the answers

Match the four potential WMD crises with the description:

<p>Collapse of the Nonproliferation Regime = Characterized by increased nuclear proliferation, potential terrorist acquisition of nuclear weapons. Failed WMD-armed State = A scenario where a state possessing nuclear,chemical, and biological weapons collapses Biological Terror Campaign = A large-scale release of aerosolized anthrax within the United states. Nuclear Detonation in a U.S. City = The catastrophic scenario of a nuclear attack on a major U.S urban center.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Avalanche of Proliferation

The potential for a rapid increase in nuclear weapons proliferation, triggered by the successful use of nuclear weapons by a state.

Finite Deterrence Enthusiasts

The belief that further nuclear proliferation isn't harmful and may deter wars, due to nuclear weapons' effectiveness.

Finite Deterrence Critics

The idea that nuclear weapons are ineffective at deterring many conflicts, like smaller wars and terrorism, thus their spread is less consequential.

Limited Utility of Nuclear Weapons

The argument that nuclear weapons have been unsuccessful in deterring conventional wars and terrorist attacks.

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Paradox of Deterrence and Proliferation

The notion that effective nuclear deterrence of nuclear-armed states makes acquisition by non-nuclear states almost inevitable.

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Risk of First Use

The documented explicit discussions by Russia, Pakistan, and North Korea regarding advantages of using nuclear weapons first.

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Global Capacity for Nuclear Weapons Production

An increasing global capacity to produce nuclear weapons.

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Proliferation of Missile Delivery Systems

The increased number of states with missile delivery systems for nuclear weapons.

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"Peaceful" Nuclear Energy to Weapons

When countries pursue nuclear energy seeing it as a means to develop nuclear capabilities.

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Counter Argument for Pursuing Elimination

Reiterates the importance of reasserting the goal of nuclear weapons. Aligning with the view given in the Wall Street Journal article.

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Practical Steps Toward Reduction

Arguing that a series of practical steps can be initiated that lead toward the goal of a nuclear free world.

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Increased Risk of Proliferation

The assessment from Drell and Goodby that the risk of nuclear proliferation has increased due to the declining influence of major nuclear powers.

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Action-Oriented Agenda and Leadership

Highlight U.S. and Russia are urged to provide action plans to reduce nuclear weaponary and leadership.

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Inspiration and Bold Leadership

To achieve significant progress on nuclear disarmament requires inspirational leadership that projects a big idea.

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Addressing Concerns about Verification

Acknowledge the challenges of verification, particularly regarding non-deployed weapons.

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Limitations of Nuclear Deterrence

The relative stability of Cold War-era U.S: Soviet nuclear deterrence, cannot be assumed to hold

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Illusion of Complete Elimination

Argues that nuclear abolition overlooks practical obstacles relating to arms control proposals.

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Challenges of Verification and Enforcement

Difficulty of ensuring complete disarmament and preventing the clandestine development of new weapons.

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Problem of "Virtual" Arsenals

Knowledge and infrastructure to rebuild them would remain creating "breakout potential" leading to unstable environment.

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Risk of Rogue Nations

In a world without nuclear deterrent rogue nations may feel emboldened to pursue aggressive agenda

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The Pacing Challenge

US Defense identified The People's Republic of China as the Pacing Challenge.

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Defense Priorities

US Defense strategy outlines: defending the homeland, deterring aggression and building enduring advantages.

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Failed WMD-armed state

According to the "Are We Prepared?" report, this would lead to nuclear weapons falling into the hands of hostile factions or non-state actors.

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Leadership Awareness and Education

The "Are We Prepared?" report claims WMD needs to be a core requirement in the education of emerging leaders.

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WMD Elimination

According to "Are We Prepared?" they lack sufficient military units and capabilities to locate, secure, disable, and destroy WMD programs.

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Study Notes

The Potential for an "Avalanche of Proliferation"

  • Successful operational use of nuclear weapons could trigger widespread proliferation, leading to consideration of tactical nuclear weapons.
  • This could result in a less peaceful world.

Divergent Views on Nuclear Proliferation

  • Hawks oppose proliferation to hostile states but support nuclear cooperation with allies.
  • Academic Skeptics/Finite Deterrence Enthusiasts argue further proliferation is less harmful and could deter wars.
  • Academic Skeptics/Finite Deterrence Critics argue nuclear weapons are ineffective at deterring many conflicts, making their spread less consequential.
  • Figures like Donald Trump and Boris Johnson have expressed openness to proliferation under certain circumstances.

The Limited Utility of Nuclear Weapons in Deterring Many Conflicts

  • Nuclear weapons have failed to deter conventional wars and terrorist attacks.
  • Attempts to acquire nuclear weapons have triggered military strikes and serious considerations.

The Paradox of Deterrence and Proliferation

  • The effectiveness of nuclear weapons in deterring nuclear-armed states makes their acquisition by non-nuclear states "all but irresistible".
  • The U.S. might not have intervened against Saddam Hussein if Iraq possessed nuclear weapons.

The Risk of First Use

  • Russia, Pakistan, and North Korea have discussed the advantages of first use.
  • The U.S., France, and the UK refuse to renounce first use, while Israel maintains a policy of not being the first to introduce nuclear weapons.

Increasing Global Capacity for Nuclear Weapons Production

  • The U.S. and Russia possess significant numbers of reserve warheads and fissile materials.
  • Japan has a has a civilian plutonium stockpile for over 2,000 first-generation bombs.
  • India has substantial separated reactor-grade plutonium and plans to increase its production capacity.
  • China has produced tons of nuclear material and is considering a large civilian reprocessing plant.
  • Japan and China plan to expand their uranium enrichment capacity, with South Korea desiring this capability.

Proliferation of Missile Delivery Systems

  • States with missiles that could deliver a nuclear weapon (300 km or more range) has increased from two to 24.
  • Nine countries can launch satellites, demonstrating the capacity for ICBM development.
  • Missiles can act as catalysts for nuclear wars by threatening strategic assets.

Regional Instability and Nuclear Aspirations

  • East Asia may face a nuclear arms race due to actions of China, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea.
  • South Asia faces increased escalation risk from the rivalry between India and Pakistan. Tactical nucelar weapons.
  • The Middle East faces proliferation concerns due to Iran's nuclear program.
  • Israel's arsenal further complicates the regional dynamics.

The "Peaceful" Nuclear Energy Path to Weapons

  • Potential proliferators pursue "peaceful" nuclear energy programs as a pathway to developing nuclear weapons capabilities.
  • Sharing peaceful" nuclear technology with proliferation-prone states is questioned.

Arms Control Challenges and Potential Measures

  • There is a decline in emphasis on arms control and the need to reassess current approaches.
  • Potential arms control measures include talks with China, Russia, and others on limiting ground-based, dual-capable ballistic and cruise missiles.

Sidney Drell and James Goodby

  • They argue that a world without nuclear weapons should be U.S. policy.
  • They recognize the need for deterrence, they say complete disarmament is essential for security.
  • They believe that a nuclear-free world is not only possible but is achievable through incremental action.

Reasserting the Vision

  • Pursue the vision as an operationally meaningful goal.
  • Reassertion of the vision is a bold initiative consistent with America's moral heritage.
  • Shared ground with realists on near-term actions is possible.

Strategic and Operational Steps

  • The urgency for an action-oriented agenda is needed.
  • Extending START, increasing warning times, ending Cold War attack plans, negotiating cooperative missile defense, securing weapons, initiating dialogue, strengthening the NPT, bringing the CTBT into effect, and developing international controls.
  • Pursuing the overall goal is a must.

The Necessities for an Effective Policy

  • Progress must be facilitated by a clear statement of our ultimate goal.
  • Verification challenges should be accepted.
  • Limitations: Cold War U.S.-Soviet deterrence cannot translate to the current world with more nuclear actors.
  • The role and legitimacy of nuclear weapons have had an effect on national choices.

Necessary Vision

  • A world without nuclear weapons is a necessity for making progress on practical steps.
  • Inspiration and leadership in this endeavor is required.

Critical Analysis by Fred Ikles

  • He argues that zero nuclear weapons ignores: important facts, forgets important lessons, disregards insurmountable obstacles.
  • He poses the question "how can all nuclear states be persuaded to believe in a nuclear-free world?"

The difficulty in achieving consensus

  • Achieving/ maintaining this state would require levels of trust among all nations.
  • The legacy of Hiroshima/ Nagasaki should lead to the management/ lessening of nuclear weapons.

Defining Moment

  • The 2022 NDS identifies PRC as DoD's most consequential strategic competitor.
  • It prioritizes homeland defense, deterrence strategic attacks, aggression, building resilient joint force.

A Transforming Security Dynamic

  • President Biden assessment of a "decisive decade" marked shifts.
  • Competitors want to use perceived U.S. vulnerabilities against it. Expanding and modernizing nuclear arsenals may create new stresses on state stability."

Prioritization of the Peoples Republic of China

  • NDS identifies PRC as the most influential strategic competitor / "pace challenge."
  • PRC expands coercive moves reshaping indo pacific.
  • Progresses space and cyber warfare capabilities focused deterring power.
  • Increasing nuclear capacity compounds deterrence.

Integrated Deterrence Approach

  • Central charge is develop / combine/ maximize strength.
  • Using every means possible ensure potential adversaries folly of aggression.
  • Demands aligning investments/ tailoring activities.

DNA Evidence Confirmed Soviet Cover-Up

  • This document shows Soviets covered up an anthrax incident that killed dozens of people
  • A report by the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University reviews main themes, ideas and concerning WMD threats: Proliferation, and preparedness.
  • Source one highlights the historical precedent of biological weapons incidents and potential cover-ups.
  • Source Two assesses the current and projected dangers of WMD/ US to handle said dangers.

Crises in the Modern World with WMD

  • A WMD Armed state that fails and leaks dangers (chemical, biological weapon) out.
  • Biological Terror Campaigns aerosolized/large events in a U.S location.
  • A nuclear attack at a seaport / major city in the United States of America.
  • State actor involvement: Iran/North and Korea/apparent Syrian nuclear reactor construction.

The History of Biological Warfare/Attacks.

  • Caru’s Paper is related to W Seth’s BW, state/nations involvement in the BW/Biological Weaponization.
  • Early indications/indications of fear through using arrows/ contaminating war.
  • “Arrows such as those made by Scythians”
  • WWII marked most notorious biological events/weaponization.
  • WWI (focus on animal sabotage) /Japan WWII (against civilians).
  • Geneva protocol First International effort on bw/warfare tactics.
  • USSR/USA and investments in mass BW.
  • 1972 BW convention- Prohibiting of toxins /biological weapons.
  • USSR secret continued Program after BW convention sign.

Modern Era of BW

  • No BW small scale /limited since WWII/ Israel Rhodesia/South Africa
  • “...biological agent use to criminals."
  • 1984 food contamination’s/Salmonella Rajneeshee's cult"
  • The most effective/ large impact of bioterrorism" through BW over decades and decades...
  • The Future potential/state use of biological weapons to stay/non actors
  • Dual use of this/accessibly use of warfare threats.
  • WWII bw is equal too the threat of modern warfare/thermonuce weaponry. -BW theattract/ exploration and good luck.
  • Categorizations-Biological violence.
  • biological warfare term =states/terrorists groups.
  • Japan BW biggest issue during WWII.

Important Modern Facts.

  • W. Geneva's first explicit ban 1925/BW warfare although no prohibitions.
  • Cold war USSR largest program, US develop and used in combat.
  • Biological program’s 72 prohibit/develop/transfer of biological weapons.
  • Rejneshee BW attack caused/Salmonella illnesses.

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