Podcast
Questions and Answers
Match the following groups with their general view on nuclear proliferation, according to the NPEC document:
Match the following groups with their general view on nuclear proliferation, according to the NPEC document:
Hawks = Oppose proliferation to hostile states but support civilian nuclear cooperation with allies. Academic Skeptics/Finite Deterrence Enthusiasts = Argue further proliferation is less harmful and could help keep the peace. Academic Skeptics/Finite Deterrence Critics = Argue nuclear weapons are ineffective at deterring many conflicts. Neorealists = Suggest proliferation to select countries could bolster U.S. security.
Match each country with its action or stance regarding nuclear weapons, as noted in the NPEC document:
Match each country with its action or stance regarding nuclear weapons, as noted in the NPEC document:
Russia = Explicitly discussed advantages of first use of nuclear weapons. Japan = Has a large stockpile of civilian plutonium and legally clarified its atomic energy program supports national security. Iran = Its nuclear program has spurred proliferation concerns in the Middle East. South Korea = Desires to expand uranium enrichment capacity.
Match the following terms with their definitions according to the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS):
Match the following terms with their definitions according to the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS):
Integrated Deterrence = Coordinated use of all DoD tools alongside interagency and allied efforts. Campaigning = Day-to-day military activities to gain and sustain military advantages and counter competitor coercion. Building Enduring Advantages = Reforms in force development, technology investment, and strengthening the defense ecosystem. Deterrence by Resilience = Enhancing the ability to withstand, fight through, and recover quickly from disruption.
Match the following terms related to nuclear proliferation with their meaning:
Match the following terms related to nuclear proliferation with their meaning:
Match the following U.S. administrations with their stance on a world without nuclear weapons, according to Drell and Goodby:
Match the following U.S. administrations with their stance on a world without nuclear weapons, according to Drell and Goodby:
Match the following potential WMD crises with a description:
Match the following potential WMD crises with a description:
Match each country or entity with its specific activity related to biological weapons, as reported in the provided texts:
Match each country or entity with its specific activity related to biological weapons, as reported in the provided texts:
Match each historical effort with its aim regarding biological weapons:
Match each historical effort with its aim regarding biological weapons:
Match weapon violence categorization with its definition:
Match weapon violence categorization with its definition:
Match the following aspects of the US response to WMD threats with its shortfall identified in the report:
Match the following aspects of the US response to WMD threats with its shortfall identified in the report:
Match the steps to improve U.S. preparedness:
Match the steps to improve U.S. preparedness:
Match the following challenges and changes:
Match the following challenges and changes:
Match the actions with states or regions:
Match the actions with states or regions:
Match the four potential WMD crises with the action.
Match the four potential WMD crises with the action.
Match the action with what it is increasing.
Match the action with what it is increasing.
Match the type of goal and its description.
Match the type of goal and its description.
Match the concern with what it increases:
Match the concern with what it increases:
Match the view and who is it from:
Match the view and who is it from:
Match the four potential WMD crises with the description:
Match the four potential WMD crises with the description:
Flashcards
Avalanche of Proliferation
Avalanche of Proliferation
The potential for a rapid increase in nuclear weapons proliferation, triggered by the successful use of nuclear weapons by a state.
Finite Deterrence Enthusiasts
Finite Deterrence Enthusiasts
The belief that further nuclear proliferation isn't harmful and may deter wars, due to nuclear weapons' effectiveness.
Finite Deterrence Critics
Finite Deterrence Critics
The idea that nuclear weapons are ineffective at deterring many conflicts, like smaller wars and terrorism, thus their spread is less consequential.
Limited Utility of Nuclear Weapons
Limited Utility of Nuclear Weapons
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Paradox of Deterrence and Proliferation
Paradox of Deterrence and Proliferation
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Risk of First Use
Risk of First Use
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Global Capacity for Nuclear Weapons Production
Global Capacity for Nuclear Weapons Production
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Proliferation of Missile Delivery Systems
Proliferation of Missile Delivery Systems
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"Peaceful" Nuclear Energy to Weapons
"Peaceful" Nuclear Energy to Weapons
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Counter Argument for Pursuing Elimination
Counter Argument for Pursuing Elimination
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Practical Steps Toward Reduction
Practical Steps Toward Reduction
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Increased Risk of Proliferation
Increased Risk of Proliferation
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Action-Oriented Agenda and Leadership
Action-Oriented Agenda and Leadership
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Inspiration and Bold Leadership
Inspiration and Bold Leadership
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Addressing Concerns about Verification
Addressing Concerns about Verification
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Limitations of Nuclear Deterrence
Limitations of Nuclear Deterrence
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Illusion of Complete Elimination
Illusion of Complete Elimination
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Challenges of Verification and Enforcement
Challenges of Verification and Enforcement
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Problem of "Virtual" Arsenals
Problem of "Virtual" Arsenals
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Risk of Rogue Nations
Risk of Rogue Nations
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The Pacing Challenge
The Pacing Challenge
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Defense Priorities
Defense Priorities
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Failed WMD-armed state
Failed WMD-armed state
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Leadership Awareness and Education
Leadership Awareness and Education
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WMD Elimination
WMD Elimination
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Study Notes
The Potential for an "Avalanche of Proliferation"
- Successful operational use of nuclear weapons could trigger widespread proliferation, leading to consideration of tactical nuclear weapons.
- This could result in a less peaceful world.
Divergent Views on Nuclear Proliferation
- Hawks oppose proliferation to hostile states but support nuclear cooperation with allies.
- Academic Skeptics/Finite Deterrence Enthusiasts argue further proliferation is less harmful and could deter wars.
- Academic Skeptics/Finite Deterrence Critics argue nuclear weapons are ineffective at deterring many conflicts, making their spread less consequential.
- Figures like Donald Trump and Boris Johnson have expressed openness to proliferation under certain circumstances.
The Limited Utility of Nuclear Weapons in Deterring Many Conflicts
- Nuclear weapons have failed to deter conventional wars and terrorist attacks.
- Attempts to acquire nuclear weapons have triggered military strikes and serious considerations.
The Paradox of Deterrence and Proliferation
- The effectiveness of nuclear weapons in deterring nuclear-armed states makes their acquisition by non-nuclear states "all but irresistible".
- The U.S. might not have intervened against Saddam Hussein if Iraq possessed nuclear weapons.
The Risk of First Use
- Russia, Pakistan, and North Korea have discussed the advantages of first use.
- The U.S., France, and the UK refuse to renounce first use, while Israel maintains a policy of not being the first to introduce nuclear weapons.
Increasing Global Capacity for Nuclear Weapons Production
- The U.S. and Russia possess significant numbers of reserve warheads and fissile materials.
- Japan has a has a civilian plutonium stockpile for over 2,000 first-generation bombs.
- India has substantial separated reactor-grade plutonium and plans to increase its production capacity.
- China has produced tons of nuclear material and is considering a large civilian reprocessing plant.
- Japan and China plan to expand their uranium enrichment capacity, with South Korea desiring this capability.
Proliferation of Missile Delivery Systems
- States with missiles that could deliver a nuclear weapon (300 km or more range) has increased from two to 24.
- Nine countries can launch satellites, demonstrating the capacity for ICBM development.
- Missiles can act as catalysts for nuclear wars by threatening strategic assets.
Regional Instability and Nuclear Aspirations
- East Asia may face a nuclear arms race due to actions of China, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea.
- South Asia faces increased escalation risk from the rivalry between India and Pakistan. Tactical nucelar weapons.
- The Middle East faces proliferation concerns due to Iran's nuclear program.
- Israel's arsenal further complicates the regional dynamics.
The "Peaceful" Nuclear Energy Path to Weapons
- Potential proliferators pursue "peaceful" nuclear energy programs as a pathway to developing nuclear weapons capabilities.
- Sharing peaceful" nuclear technology with proliferation-prone states is questioned.
Arms Control Challenges and Potential Measures
- There is a decline in emphasis on arms control and the need to reassess current approaches.
- Potential arms control measures include talks with China, Russia, and others on limiting ground-based, dual-capable ballistic and cruise missiles.
Sidney Drell and James Goodby
- They argue that a world without nuclear weapons should be U.S. policy.
- They recognize the need for deterrence, they say complete disarmament is essential for security.
- They believe that a nuclear-free world is not only possible but is achievable through incremental action.
Reasserting the Vision
- Pursue the vision as an operationally meaningful goal.
- Reassertion of the vision is a bold initiative consistent with America's moral heritage.
- Shared ground with realists on near-term actions is possible.
Strategic and Operational Steps
- The urgency for an action-oriented agenda is needed.
- Extending START, increasing warning times, ending Cold War attack plans, negotiating cooperative missile defense, securing weapons, initiating dialogue, strengthening the NPT, bringing the CTBT into effect, and developing international controls.
- Pursuing the overall goal is a must.
The Necessities for an Effective Policy
- Progress must be facilitated by a clear statement of our ultimate goal.
- Verification challenges should be accepted.
- Limitations: Cold War U.S.-Soviet deterrence cannot translate to the current world with more nuclear actors.
- The role and legitimacy of nuclear weapons have had an effect on national choices.
Necessary Vision
- A world without nuclear weapons is a necessity for making progress on practical steps.
- Inspiration and leadership in this endeavor is required.
Critical Analysis by Fred Ikles
- He argues that zero nuclear weapons ignores: important facts, forgets important lessons, disregards insurmountable obstacles.
- He poses the question "how can all nuclear states be persuaded to believe in a nuclear-free world?"
The difficulty in achieving consensus
- Achieving/ maintaining this state would require levels of trust among all nations.
- The legacy of Hiroshima/ Nagasaki should lead to the management/ lessening of nuclear weapons.
Defining Moment
- The 2022 NDS identifies PRC as DoD's most consequential strategic competitor.
- It prioritizes homeland defense, deterrence strategic attacks, aggression, building resilient joint force.
A Transforming Security Dynamic
- President Biden assessment of a "decisive decade" marked shifts.
- Competitors want to use perceived U.S. vulnerabilities against it. Expanding and modernizing nuclear arsenals may create new stresses on state stability."
Prioritization of the Peoples Republic of China
- NDS identifies PRC as the most influential strategic competitor / "pace challenge."
- PRC expands coercive moves reshaping indo pacific.
- Progresses space and cyber warfare capabilities focused deterring power.
- Increasing nuclear capacity compounds deterrence.
Integrated Deterrence Approach
- Central charge is develop / combine/ maximize strength.
- Using every means possible ensure potential adversaries folly of aggression.
- Demands aligning investments/ tailoring activities.
DNA Evidence Confirmed Soviet Cover-Up
- This document shows Soviets covered up an anthrax incident that killed dozens of people
- A report by the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University reviews main themes, ideas and concerning WMD threats: Proliferation, and preparedness.
- Source one highlights the historical precedent of biological weapons incidents and potential cover-ups.
- Source Two assesses the current and projected dangers of WMD/ US to handle said dangers.
Crises in the Modern World with WMD
- A WMD Armed state that fails and leaks dangers (chemical, biological weapon) out.
- Biological Terror Campaigns aerosolized/large events in a U.S location.
- A nuclear attack at a seaport / major city in the United States of America.
- State actor involvement: Iran/North and Korea/apparent Syrian nuclear reactor construction.
The History of Biological Warfare/Attacks.
- Caru’s Paper is related to W Seth’s BW, state/nations involvement in the BW/Biological Weaponization.
- Early indications/indications of fear through using arrows/ contaminating war.
- “Arrows such as those made by Scythians”
- WWII marked most notorious biological events/weaponization.
- WWI (focus on animal sabotage) /Japan WWII (against civilians).
- Geneva protocol First International effort on bw/warfare tactics.
- USSR/USA and investments in mass BW.
- 1972 BW convention- Prohibiting of toxins /biological weapons.
- USSR secret continued Program after BW convention sign.
Modern Era of BW
- No BW small scale /limited since WWII/ Israel Rhodesia/South Africa
- “...biological agent use to criminals."
- 1984 food contamination’s/Salmonella Rajneeshee's cult"
- The most effective/ large impact of bioterrorism" through BW over decades and decades...
- The Future potential/state use of biological weapons to stay/non actors
- Dual use of this/accessibly use of warfare threats.
- WWII bw is equal too the threat of modern warfare/thermonuce weaponry. -BW theattract/ exploration and good luck.
- Categorizations-Biological violence.
- biological warfare term =states/terrorists groups.
- Japan BW biggest issue during WWII.
Important Modern Facts.
- W. Geneva's first explicit ban 1925/BW warfare although no prohibitions.
- Cold war USSR largest program, US develop and used in combat.
- Biological program’s 72 prohibit/develop/transfer of biological weapons.
- Rejneshee BW attack caused/Salmonella illnesses.
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