Contemporary Conflicts: Analysis and Implications

• War is arguably the most destructive form of human behavior, characterized by persistent interaction within and between states.
• It leads to death, resource depletion, economic stagnation, environmental damage, disease outbreaks, governmental expansion, societal militarization, cultural shifts, familial disruption, and psychological trauma.
• War consumes resources that could be used for more constructive activities
• War undermines security rather than enhancing it
• War is a key driver in the evolution of global politics and state behavior.
• It influences the distribution of power and wealth, the structure of the world economy, and the institutional structures and cultures of states.
• War has a profound impact on the birth and death of states.

The State's Role in War

• Warfare is intrinsically linked to the development of the modern nation-state system
• Warfare was essential to States forming
• States in turn lead to War

Impact of Major Conflicts

• World Wars I and II had transformative effects on the global system and domestic societies.
• The Cold War significantly shaped international and domestic politics and cultures.

Contemporary Warfare

• The development of new states is influenced by warfare and war preparations.
• There are increasing threats to security due to the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the potential acquisition by terrorist groups and rogue states

Understanding the Causes of War

• Understanding the causes of war can potentially reduce war occurrence and lessen the severity
• Scholars from diverse disciplines such as philosophy, history, political science, and others have been trying to determine the causes of war

Focus of Scholarly Research

• Most scholarly research has historically focused on wars between states, particularly since Thucydides.
• Civil wars have been more frequent than interstate wars, especially in the last half century.

Complexity of Warfare

• Civil wars, colonial wars, ethnic wars, and tribal wars make determining the causes of war more complex
• Each form of war shares common elements, like the use of military force to advance group interests, but there are important differences.

Differences Between Interstate and Civil Wars

• Theories of interstate war and civil war emphasize different factors.
• Interstate war theories focus on the distribution of military power in the international system.
• Civil war theories focus on economic and social welfare levels.
• Contemporary war literature typically focuses on either interstate or civil war, but not both.

Modern Warfare

• No book on war can be complete without treating both interstate war and civil war
• Interstate wars have shaped the modern international system, receiving most scholarly attention
• Theories on interstate war are closely related to the literature on international relations theory.

Civil War Analysis

• Previously, civil war studies were more descriptive than theoretical and were studied by comparative politics students.
• There is little consensus on the causes of interstate war.

Contemporary Impact of Interstate War

• Interstate war still has a profound effect on the modern world, especially in the new century with the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
• These wars evolved into internationalized civil wars with significant human and economic costs and a decline in US prestige.
• The Russia-Georgia war in 2008 signaled a renewed Russian assertiveness in international politics.

Potential Flashpoints for Interstate War

• There is a continuing risk of broader conflicts due to unresolved conflicts and nuclear proliferation
• Conflicts from Palestinian-Israeli wars, the development of Iran's nuclear program, Indo-Pakistani rivalry, and tensions in the Far East are potential danger points

Focus on Interstate War

• Despite interstate war not being the most frequent form of warfare, it has the potential to be the most destructive in human and economic terms.
• Attention is therefore devoted to interstate war while reserving attention for civil war.

Studying the Causes of War

• Understanding the causes of war requires creating a theoretical and historical context
• Creating a definition of war is necessary to understanding primary characteristics
• Historical treatment and discussion of civil war can provide context
• The levels-of-analysis framework helps organize the study of the causes of war.

Defining War

• War is defined as sustained, coordinated violence between political organizations.
• It involves the use of force to kill, injure, and destroy military and economic resources.
• Military violence distinguishes war from other interstate conflicts.

Key Elements of War

• Violence must be reciprocated for it to qualify as war
• War is between two political organizations.

Actors in War

• Actors in war are organizations, not individuals
• Actual fighting is done by individuals on behalf of a larger political unit, coordinated by political and military leaders
• Violence has a purpose and political organizations have goals which inform the use of force
• War is a political instrument, a continuation of political activity by other means.
• War is intended to influence the adversary's behavior.

Political Nature of War

• The diplomatic and political outcomes of war are important and not always congruent with military outcomes
• In resorting to military force, political actors aim to influence the adversary's behavior to advance their own interests.
• War is a coercive act aimed at influencing the behavior of other actors.
• The goal is usually to influence adversary behavior to advance own interests

Goals in War

• The goal is usually to influence the adversary's behavior.
• The aim is sometimes to weaken military forces or economic resources
• State leaders aim to change the expectations of war outcome

Non-Forceful Goals

• Political leaders typically prefer non-forceful means to achieve goals
• Effective uses of military power involve the threat of force
• Deterrence prevents an adversary from harmful action

Diplomacy and Military Force

• Diplomacy does not stop when war starts
• The threat of force is part of an actor's bargaining strategy, aimed at influencing the cost-benefit calculus of the adversary and persuading them to change behavior.
• The use of the atomic bomb against Japan in 1945 was an example of this
• Diplomacy without force is like music without instruments

Coercive Nature of Military Force

• Terrorism against Israel is motivated by imposing high enough costs
• Al Qaeda had political goals in the attacks against US military barracks and the World Trade Center

Contrast of Purpose in War

• Military use is contrasted with scholars who include purpose in the definition of war.
• Sustained use of violence is a differentiator
• Differentiation if there is a magnitude or impact, crossing a violence threshold

The Changing Nature of Warfare

• Human Warfare has changed significantly over time
• Archaeologic evidence supports that warfare became more plentiful in the last 5000 years
• Armies became larger and more lethal

Changes in Warfare Through Time

• Deaths per war have more than doubled over time
• There's been a steady decline in the frequency of great power war
• There hasn't been a great power war in the last half century

Factors Contributing to Absence of Great Power War

• The absence of great power war has been attributed to both nuclear weapons and deterrent effects, and proliferation of smaller wars and other armed conflict.
• There has been a shift in interstate war, with a disproportionate number fought in Europe
• A dramatic shift in warfare (both interstate and civil) is apparent

Trends in Warfare

• A significant trend is a rise in the frequency of civil wars and other forms of intrastate conflict
• Civil wars have shifted away from Europe along with interstate war

Civil Wars Change

• Civil war involves smaller armies than in interstate war
• Civil wars have evolved along with interstate war
• Civil wars are now about a number of different groups and interests

Warfare Evolution

• Strategy and tactics have shifted along with norms
• Warfare is increasingly asymmetric
• Tactics include the targeting of civilians
• Contemporary civil wars are rarely settled by decisive battles
• Contemporary civil wars are characterized by conflict over political loyalties
• Those forms of wars are often contrasted with wars of the Westphilian era

The Levels-of-Analysis Framework

• A survey of the causes of war requires organizing framework
• The levels-of-analysis framework helps organize the causes of war
• The levels-of-analysis framework includes individuals, the nation-state, and the international system
• Framework is not a theory but a typology of the causes of war
• The levels of analysis framework is a framework for classifying different casual factors that influence policies
• Individual-level analyses are a way to explain foreign policy
• National-level analyses examine the factors associated with the society or government

Explore the transformations in Afghanistan and Iraq wars post-US intervention. Understand the consequences of the Iraq war and the implications of the Russia-Georgia conflict. Also, examine the dangers of nuclear proliferation and the Indo-Pakistani rivalry.