Modern Insecurity & Climate Change Impact

A state's lack of external threats reduces the need to build strong institutions. Without the pressure of potential invasion, states are less motivated to develop robust defense mechanisms or efficient governance structures.

Without external threats, states find it hard to foster a strong national identity and loyalty among their citizens. They lack a common enemy that unites people and strengthens their sense of belonging.

The absence of a mechanism for stronger states to absorb weaker ones leads to the persistence of weak states. These states may experience further decline and become prone to internal conflicts that can spillover into the international arena.

Internal conflicts within weak states can lead to international conflict through refugees fleeing violence and seeking asylum in neighboring countries. This can destabilize the region and lead to tensions between states.

Internal conflicts in one state can lead to international conflict through the "kin-country syndrome." This occurs when individuals from neighboring states get involved in conflicts due to shared ethnic or religious ties, potentially leading to interstate wars.

Rebel groups can operate from sanctuaries in neighboring states if those states are unable or unwilling to stop them. This weakness allows insurgents to launch attacks and destabilize the target state.

Diaspora communities living outside their home state can provide support and resources for rebels seeking to overthrow the government. This can weaken the state and facilitate rebel activities.

States hostile to each other might provide safe haven and support to the other’s opposition groups, fueling instability and prolonging conflicts. This can be a dangerous game with potentially devastating consequences.

Drones are more effective against non-state actors or in regions with limited air defenses due to factors like jamming, hacking, and low air-to-air combat capabilities.

Drones enhance the ability of governments to track and eliminate terrorists in uncontested airspace, reducing the cost and risk involved. However, this could lead to more frequent use of force.

The "Cyber Revolution" thesis claims that cyber capabilities empower weaker actors with significant advantages. They argue that offensive cyber operations are easier than defense, and anonymity hinders retaliation.

Contrary to the "Cyber Revolution" thesis, Lindsay argues that the complex nature of weaponizing cyber attacks makes offensive operations difficult. Also, cyber operations are most effective when strong deterrents are in place.

Drones, while effective for surveillance and monitoring in disputed territories, are less useful in contested airspace due to their vulnerability to air defense systems.

The Stuxnet incident, a cyberattack causing physical damage across borders, challenged the "Cyber Revolution" thesis. It showed that cyber capabilities, while powerful, have limitations.

Drones are less effective in coercive diplomacy compared to other military tools because they lack the same persuasive impact.

Authoritarian regimes can use drones for domestic control to monitor and suppress dissent. This raises concerns about the impact on civil liberties and freedom of expression.

The process where societal differences are grouped along a single divisive axis, reducing cross-cutting differences and forming rigid group identities.

Attacking existing splits in society with divisive rhetoric, amplifying false information, and hacking accounts to spread propaganda.

Creating new trends with coordinated networks of bots and trolls, to steer online conversations towards specific narratives.

Exploiting existing hashtags to attach messages and influence online discourse.

Steering attention away from legitimate topics and towards propaganda.

Polarization undermines trust in institutions, leading to a more divided and vulnerable society.

A highly sophisticated use of manipulating trends to target both external adversaries and domestic audiences.

Populist rhetoric, social identity theory, and media amplification contribute to deepening polarization by framing conflicts in simplistic moral terms and exploiting grievances.

Stuxnet was a sophisticated cyberweapon developed by the US and Israel to sabotage Iran's nuclear program.

Stuxnet targeted Siemens industrial control systems (ICS) used in Iran's Natanz nuclear facility.

Stuxnet was introduced through USB drives, exploiting vulnerabilities in Siemens ICS and relying on human error to bypass security.

Stuxnet used zero-day vulnerabilities and valid digital certificates to damage specific centrifuges used for uranium enrichment.

Stuxnet damaged over 1,000 centrifuges at Natanz, temporarily delaying Iran's nuclear program.

Cyberattacks like Stuxnet require vast resources and expertise, showcasing the technological advantage of powerful nations.

Cyberwarfare effectiveness depends on precise targeting and intelligence-gathering, which are resource-intensive.

While Stuxnet's sophistication deterred future cyberattacks, attribution remains challenging, making cyber deterrence complex.

The shift of economic power towards emerging economies like China, driven by their dominance in e-commerce and investments in AI and digital infrastructure.

Trade between developing countries, particularly within Asia, is increasing rapidly.

Digital technologies bring benefits like innovation and productivity, but also challenges like inequality, job displacement, and competition for talent.

Government regulations restricting the flow of data across borders.

Investing in high-speed internet and training populations in digital skills, including coding and technical training, to prepare for a digitally-driven future.

Harmonizing global digital rules and regulations, such as data privacy and cybersecurity, to facilitate international trade.

Government programs that provide financial assistance, retraining opportunities, and support for communities affected by job displacement due to digitalization.

Businesses adapting to the digital age by embracing technology, developing global talent pools, and customizing operations for diverse markets.

The idea that the world is gradually becoming less violent due to various historical forces like advancements in reason, empathy, governance, and interconnectedness.

Processes like the Pacification Process, Humanitarian Revolution, Long Peace, and Rights Revolutions that have contributed to a decrease in violence.

Pinker's assertion that the reduction of violence is not inevitable but a result of specific social, cultural, and material conditions.

The notion that the world is moving towards two distinct international orders, one led by the United States and its allies and the other by China and its allies. These orders would overlap in some areas like trade and environmental governance while diverging on human rights and internet governance.

The idea that states may try to avoid aligning fully with either the LIO or ACIO order, especially those in Southeast Asia, as their interests may not fully align with either system.

The potential downsides of a bifurcated world order, including reduced global integration and wealth.

The LIO's need to regain strength and internal coherence to compete effectively with the ACIO.

The US and its allies face the challenge of balancing competition with China while avoiding a new Cold War.