IP Reading Summaries (Part 2) PDF

IP Reading Summaries MODERN INSECURITY & ITS SOLUTIONS Week 5 - Resource Scarcity —Robert D. Kaplan's article, "The Coming Anarchy," (Resource Scarcity) This article discusses the collapse of West African nations such as Sierra Leone and the Ivory Coast. It highlights t...

IP Reading Summaries MODERN INSECURITY & ITS SOLUTIONS Week 5 - Resource Scarcity —Robert D. Kaplan's article, "The Coming Anarchy," (Resource Scarcity) This article discusses the collapse of West African nations such as Sierra Leone and the Ivory Coast. It highlights the failure of political governance and the resulting rise in crime and lawlessness. ○ - Traditional community structures are dissolving, leading to the proliferation of slums and violence in urban areas. ○ Kaplan connects local issues to widespread problems like environmental degradation, overcrowding, and scarce resources. ○ He suggests that the region is a precursor to future global instability, akin to the historical upheaval seen in the Balkans. ○ Predictions indicate increased chaos as former colonial powers withdraw and populations surge. ○ There is an urgent need for awareness of these interconnected challenges to mitigate potential geopolitical ramifications worldwide. Quote ○ States lack the authority and power to protect resources from themselves “criminal anarchy emerges as the real ‘strategic’ danger.” —Thomas Dixon-“ Terror in the weather” October 30th (Resource scarcity) Thomas Homer-Dixon's op-ed in The New York Times argues that climate change poses a significant threat to international security, a view recently underscored by a United Nations Security Council debate led by the British government. While many nations recognize the security implications, skeptics question the relevance of the discussion in this context. However, evidence suggests that the socio-political destabilization caused by climate-induced challenges could rival historical security threats, with military leaders designating climate change as a "threat multiplier" in fragile regions. The research illustrates how environmental stress has previously fueled conflict, as resource scarcity drives migration and social unrest. Without immediate action to address carbon emissions and develop adaptive strategies, the repercussions of climate change are expected to exacerbate poverty, undermine governments, and foster extremism, affecting global stability. Quotes: ○ Ecological disasters are a national security threat  “a challenge … just as dangerous – and more intractable – than the arms race” “the core foreign policy challenge from which most others will ultimately emanate”: Week 6: Part 1 Failed States —R. Rotberg -“Failed States, Collapsed States, Weak States” States must provide political goods (many kinds of political goods on p.3) Robert Rotberg’ explores the dynamics of state failure, highlighting the inability of certain states to deliver basic political goods to their citizens, leading to their disintegration. Failed states are defined by their incapacity to ensure security, provide justice, foster economic opportunities, and uphold public health and education systems. This collapse in service delivery undermines the legitimacy of governments and often results in violence, lawlessness, and social fragmentation. Rotberg distinguishes between strong, weak, failed, and collapsed states based on their ability to perform core functions. Strong states efficiently provide public goods and maintain legitimacy, while weak states struggle due to internal conflicts, corruption, and poor governance. Failed states experience severe internal conflicts and governance breakdowns, and collapsed states, the most extreme form, exhibit a complete vacuum of authority, often descending into chaos and anarchy. He identifies several indicators of state failure, including a decline in economic performance, government corruption, Ethnic tension, human rights abuses, and escalating violence. Failed states often see their rulers prioritizing personal gain over public welfare, as exemplified by cases like Mobutu’s Zaire (Congo) and Siad Barre’s Somalia. These leadership failures, rather than structural deficiencies, frequently drive states toward failure. Rotberg emphasizes that while state failure poses severe humanitarian and security risks domestically, it also has significant international ramifications, including fostering terrorism, crime, and instability. He argues for proactive measures to prevent state failure, including international interventions and governance reforms, highlighting the importance of strengthening institutions and addressing underlying causes of state fragility. —S.Patrick- “Weak States and Global Threats: Fact or Fiction?” Examines the growing international concern over the dangers posed by weak and failing states. Patrick argues that poorly governed states are often perceived as breeding grounds for transnational threats, including terrorism, crime, pandemics, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). This view represents a significant  shift in U.S. and global security paradigms, particularly post-9/11, with policymakers emphasizing the strategic importance of addressing state failure. Patrick critiques the broad-brush approach of equating state weakness with global threats, highlighting the lack of empirical evidence to support such sweeping claims. He suggests that while weak governance can contribute to transnational dangers, not all weak states present the same risks, and the specific threats vary depending on governance gaps in political, security, economic, and social domains. For instance, the piracy coming out of collapsed states like Somalia differ significantly in threat profiles from weak but functional states like Pakistan. The article discusses various threats associated with state weakness, including terrorism, where failed states might provide safe havens but are not the sole factor enabling terrorist activities. Similarly, weak governance is linked to WMD proliferation risks, transnational crime, and public health crises like pandemics. However, Patrick notes that these threats often stem from a combination of capacity deficits and political unwillingness, rather than capacity alone. Patrick concludes by calling for a nuanced policy response that tailors interventions to specific governance gaps and transnational threats. He advocates for better intelligence, coordinated strategies across U.S. agencies, and robust international collaboration. This targeted approach would help prioritize efforts and resources, addressing state failure's diverse causes and consequences more effectively. Week 6: Part 2 Economic Collapse —B. Eichengreen, “When Currencies Collapse” (pp. 1-11) Explores the fragility of the modern international monetary system, focusing on the dollar and the euro as its cornerstones. These two currencies dominate foreign exchange reserves, facilitate global trade and investment, and are vital to the financial stability of the international economy. Eichengreen highlights the growing doubts about the stability of both currencies, rooted in political and structural challenges in the United States and Europe. The Fragility of Modern Currencies ○ The dollar’s reliability was undermined during the U.S. debt-ceiling crisis, exposing political divisions and raising fears of fiscal irresponsibility. Foreign stakeholders like China and Russia criticized the U.S. for jeopardizing global economic stability. Similarly, the euro faces existential threats due to the  economic divide within the eurozone. Wealthier northern nations resist fiscal transfers, while southern states struggle under austerity measures and mounting debts. These challenges echo the monetary instability of the past and could lead to a systemic collapse akin to historical precedents. Lessons from the Past: The 1930s and 1970s ○ Eichengreen compares the potential collapse of the current system to two key historical episodes. In the 1930s, the international monetary system’s collapse, exacerbated by the gold standard and global trade imbalances, led to a worldwide depression and political extremism. ○ The other came in 1971, President Nixon suspended the convertibility of dollars into gold at a fixed price, once and for all. By February 1973, all the other advanced-country governments abandoned their efforts to maintain dollar pegs. Foreign exchange markets were closed. When they reopened, currencies were allowed to float, and many floated upward against the dollar. This collapsed the Bretton Woods system which, while disruptive, had less catastrophic consequences. Confidence in the dollar persisted despite the end of gold convertibility, ensuring liquidity for global trade and financial stability. Contemporary Challenges and Alternatives ○ The article examines alternatives to the dollar and euro, including gold, secondary currencies, and China’s yuan. While central banks have increased gold reserves, its price volatility limits its viability as a reserve currency. Secondary currencies, like the Swiss franc or Canadian dollar, lack the market depth to replace the dollar or euro. Meanwhile, China has taken steps to internationalize the yuan, promoting its use in trade and investment. However, underdeveloped financial markets and capital controls constrain its potential to rival the dominant currencies. Policy Implications for the United States and Europe ○ Eichengreen emphasizes that maintaining confidence in the dollar and euro is critical to avoiding a systemic collapse. The U.S. must balance fiscal consolidation with investments in economic growth drivers like research and infrastructure. Europe faces the more daunting task of restructuring unsustainable debts and achieving economic growth in southern Europe, requiring fiscal solidarity and greater support from wealthier member states. Ultimately, he argues that the fate of the international monetary system depends on proactive and coordinated policymaking. The stakes are high: a collapse akin to the 1930s could devastate global trade and investment, while a scenario resembling the 1970s offers a less severe but still challenging path forward —Robert Solow, “Thomas Piketty is Right” (pp. 1-14) Piketty: as long as the rate of return exceeds the rate of growth, the income and wealth of the rich will grow faster than the typical income from work. Modern capitalism is an unequal society, and the rich-get-richer dynamic strongly suggests that it will get more so. Piketty’s strong preference is for an annual progressive tax on wealth, worldwide if possible, to exclude flight to phony tax havens. He recognizes that a global tax is a hopeless goal, but he thinks that it is possible to enforce a regional wealth tax in an area the size of Europe or the United States Week 7: Bad Neighbors —Tara John, “This is Why Border Fences Don’t Work” Walls today are built not to counter military threats, but to stop the migration of people Migrants pursue more dangerous and expensive alternative routes They also have negative impacts on the environment Continued war, poverty and climate change will lead more migrants to spend their savings and risk their lives for a better future — “B. Atzili, "When Good Fences Make Bad Neighbors” (pp. 139-173) Boaz Atzili asks if fixed borders made international conflict less frequent? Among sociopolitically weak states (i.e., states that lack legitimate and effective governmental institutions), fixed borders can actually increase instability and conflict. Good fences can make bad neighbors. Three factors account for these negative effects. ○ First, an international system of states with fixed borders deprives states of what were historically their greatest incentives to develop strong institutions: external threats to their territorial integrity and opportunities for territorial expansion. ○ Second, without such territorial threats, a coherent in-group identity and loyalty to the state are difficult to establish. ○ Third, without a mechanism through which weak states can be overtaken by stronger ones, the former may persist and perhaps become even weaker The spillover of internal strife is the first mechanism through which weak states can become a source of international conflict—> e.g. refugee ○ Cases: When Afghanistan devolved into The second way in which civil strife can lead to international war is through the “kin-country syndrome ○ Cases: Congo, Uganda, Rwanda — I. Saleyhan, “Transnational Rebels” (pp. 217-242) Why are relatively weak rebels undeterred by much stronger states? Why does the state fail to maintain domestic order within its territory and among its people? Under what conditions are rebels likely to find sanctuaries in other states? ○ First, international migration and diaspora communities imply that not all politically relevant populations reside within the borders of the state ○ Second, rebels from State A may use the territory of State B if State B is incapable of stopping them due to institutional weaknesses. It is often argued that weak and/or failed states are ready havens for violent transnational actors Example: After the ○ Finally, the territory of State B may be used by insurgents from State A if States A and B are hostile to one another. As examples, after the Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988, both countries continued to provide safe haven and support to the other’s opposition groups, with Iran supporting the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and Iraq backing the Mujahedin-e-Khalq. Quote ○ Rebels put their base of operations in weak, neighboring states “external sanctuaries in neighboring countries provide an opportunity for rebel mobilization” (I. Saleyhan) WEEK 8: Killer Robots —M. Horowitz, et al., “The Consequences of Drone Proliferation” pp. 1-38) Key Argument: Current-generation drones (UAVs) introduce unique capabilities but are unlikely to cause the dramatic consequences often feared. Their impact varies depending on the context. Impact on Counterterrorism: ○ Drones enhance governments' ability to track and eliminate terrorists in uncontested airspace. ○ They lower the cost and risk of military action by removing pilots from harm's way. ○ May lead to more frequent use of force. Interstate Conflict: ○ Limited utility in contested airspace due to vulnerability to air defense systems. ○ Drones are more useful for surveillance and monitoring in disputed territories rather than direct combat. Coercive Diplomacy:  ○ Limited efficacy; drones are not as persuasive as other military tools. Domestic Control: ○ Useful for authoritarian regimes to monitor and suppress dissent. Non-State Actors: ○ Growing concern about terrorist use of drones, although their technical limitations reduce the threat level. Technological Challenges: ○ Drones face issues like jamming, hacking, and low air-to-air combat capabilities. ○ They are effective primarily against non-state actors or in regions without robust air defenses. Future Trends: Advancements in technology could make drones more impactful, but this remains speculative. Stuxnet was a computer worm that disrupted Iranian nuclear enrichment efforts in 2010. It is heralded as the first instance of a cyberattack causing physical damage across international boundaries. The incident challenges the "Cyber Revolution" thesis, which claims cyber capabilities grant asymmetric advantages to weaker actors and favor offensive operations. — J. Lindsay, “Stuxnet and the Limits of Cyber Warfare” (pp. 365-404) Cyber Revolution Thesis ○ Claims about the Cyber Revolution: Cyberattacks offer weaker actors significant advantages. Offensive cyber operations are easier than defensive ones. Anonymity undermines deterrence, making retaliation difficult. ○ Lindsay argues against these claims, asserting that: Strong actors gain more advantages from cyber capabilities. The complexity of weaponization makes cyber offense difficult. Cyber operations are most viable when deterrence is intact. Stuxnet's Context and Operation 1. Target: ○ Iran's Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, critical for uranium enrichment, was the focus. ○ The attack aimed to delay Iran's nuclear program without the risks of a military strike. 2. Infiltration:  ○ Stuxnet targeted Siemens industrial control systems (ICS) and was introduced via USB drives. ○ It exploited multiple vulnerabilities and relied on human error to bridge the "air gap" between isolated systems and external networks. 3. Capabilities: ○ Stuxnet's code was highly sophisticated, leveraging zero-day vulnerabilities and valid digital certificates. ○ It was designed to damage specific centrifuges while avoiding detection. 4. Impact: ○ The worm damaged over 1,000 centrifuges, delaying Iran’s enrichment capabilities temporarily. ○ Iran recovered within a year, demonstrating the limitations of cyberattacks as strategic tools. Strategic Implications Asymmetry: Stuxnet did not empower a weaker actor; instead, it showcased the technological and resource advantages of stronger states like the U.S. and Israel. Offense vs. Defense: Weaponizing cyber tools like Stuxnet requires extensive intelligence and precise targeting, which are resource-intensive. Deterrence: Attribution remains a challenge, but the sophisticated nature of Stuxnet underscores the strategic planning required for effective cyber deterrence. Broader Lessons Cyberattacks have significant operational and strategic constraints. The potential for cyber warfare to revolutionize conflict is limited by technical, organizational, and political challenges. Stuxnet highlights the role of traditional power dynamics and deterrence even in the cyber domain. Week 8: Conspiracy & Lies & Social Media — K. Greenhill & B. Oppenheim, “Rumor Has It” (pp. 660-676) Main Argument ○ The study examines why individuals adopt unverified rumors in conflict zones, focusing on how these rumors influence conflict dynamics. The research introduces a framework with three primary factors—worldview, threat perception, and repetition—that determine rumor receptivity. It debunks  conventional views that socioeconomic status or demographics play a significant role in rumor adoption. Key Points Role of Rumors in Conflict: ○ Rumors are pervasive in unstable areas, often sparking or justifying violence, ethnic conflict, and distrust. ○ Historical cases show rumors inciting riots, genocide, and wars, such as the Rwandan genocide and the 2008 Kenyan elections. Framework for Understanding Rumor Adoption: ○ Worldview: Pre-existing beliefs shape how people perceive and accept rumors. ○ Threat Perception: Fear and anxiety about related issues heighten susceptibility. ○ Repetition: Frequent exposure increases the likelihood of belief. Research Approach: ○ The study uses original survey data from conflict zones in Thailand and the Philippines, analyzing specific rumors about security and economic issues. ○ Findings show that worldview and threat perception predict rumor belief more accurately than education, income, or age. Findings General Observations: ○ Distrust in implicated entities increases receptivity to related rumors. ○ Threat perception amplifies belief, especially during insecurity or violence. ○ Repeated exposure creates a feedback loop, enhancing rumor credibility. Case Studies: ○ In Thailand, rumors about military coups and flood mismanagement demonstrated the role of distrust and prior exposure. ○ In the Philippines, rumors about government corruption and insurgent manipulation revealed similar patterns, with exposure often driving polarization. Implications Rumors exacerbate conflict by reinforcing the belief in its intractability. Addressing rumors requires understanding the social and psychological context in which they thrive. Key Takeaways in Bullet Points  Rumors and Conflict: ○ Often spark or justify violence and deepen distrust in unstable regions. ○ Can lead to scapegoating, amplified in-group tensions, and misinformation in military operations. Adoption of Rumors: ○ Influenced by cognitive alignment (worldview), anxiety (threat perception), and exposure frequency. ○ Socioeconomic factors like education or income have minimal impact. Methodology: ○ Original surveys conducted in Thailand and the Philippines with detailed rumor analysis. ○ Statistical modeling to test hypotheses on rumor belief and exposure. Recommendations: ○ Policymakers and conflict mediators should consider emotional and cognitive drivers when addressing rumors. ○ Reducing anxiety and providing credible information can counter rumor proliferation. ○ Rumors are more accepted when they conform with pre-existing worldviews, play to anxieties about perceived dangers/threats, and are repeated. Susceptibility to falling for rumors is also correlated with a belief that violence is inevitable, meaning that rumors can cause conflicts to be prolonged. —Lt. Col. J. Prier, “Commanding the Trend” (pp. 50-85) Main Argument ○ Prier explores the use of social media as a tool in modern information warfare. He highlights how state and nonstate actors use social media to propagate propaganda, amplify their influence, and manipulate public opinion through "commanding the trend"—a strategy to exploit social media algorithms for spreading disinformation. Key Ideas and Concepts Social Media and Information Warfare: ○ Social media has become a nexus for propaganda, blending traditional techniques with modern algorithms to influence large audiences. ○ The "trend" feature on platforms like Twitter enables adversaries to amplify their messages beyond their immediate networks.  Mechanisms of Influence: ○ Propaganda Narrative: Crafting messages aligned with existing narratives to resonate with target audiences. ○ True Believers: Mobilizing individuals predisposed to the message for organic amplification. ○ Bot Networks: Using automated accounts to inflate engagement, simulate popularity, and manipulate algorithmic trends. ○ Cyber Warriors: Human agents crafting and disseminating content to amplify propaganda. Case Studies 1. Islamic State (IS): ○ Used social media for recruitment, propaganda, and intimidation. ○ Amplified its influence through hashtags like #WorldCup2014 and apps like "Dawn of Glad Tidings," which leveraged unwitting users' accounts. ○ Combined terror messaging and recruitment, making its propaganda appear far more impactful than it was in reality. 2. Russia: ○ Applied Cold War-era "active measures" through modern platforms to interfere in the U.S. 2016 presidential election. ○ Used bots, trolls, and disinformation campaigns to polarize audiences and discredit institutions. ○ Coordinated efforts included spreading fake news (e.g., #PizzaGate), amplifying hacked information (e.g., Podesta emails), and targeting existing divides within U.S. society. Methods of Commanding the Trend Trend Distribution: Attaching messages to existing popular hashtags. Trend Hijacking: Diverting attention from legitimate topics to propaganda. Trend Creation: Engineering topics to trend using coordinated networks of bots and trolls.  Implications and Future Directions Impact on Democracy: ○ Fake news and disinformation undermine trust in institutions, creating a more polarized and manipulable society. ○ Manipulating trends has evolved into a sophisticated form of psychological warfare, targeting both adversaries and domestic audiences. Recommendations: ○ Governments need proactive strategies to counter disinformation, including better public awareness and enhanced digital defenses. ○ Transparency from social media companies about their algorithms and more robust content moderation are critical. Week 9: Extremism & Democratic Decline —J. McCoy, T. Rahman, & M. Somer, “Polarization & the Global Crisis of Democracy” (pp. 16-42) Introduction and Key Argument ○ Core Thesis: Severe political and societal polarization undermines democracy globally. Polarization aligns societal differences into a binary "Us vs. Them" dynamic. It erodes trust, hinders compromise, and destabilizes governance, threatening democratic norms and institutions. ○ Contemporary Context: Polarization is not solely ideological (e.g., Left vs. Right) but also cultural, nationalist, and identity-based. Examples of democratic erosion due to polarization include Hungary, Turkey, Venezuela, and the U.S. Conceptualizing Polarization ○ Definition: Polarization is a relational and political process where societal differences align along a single divisive axis. Reduces cross-cutting differences, creating rigid group identities. Framed through divisive rhetoric by political leaders, often exploiting grievances. ○ Drivers of Polarization: Populist rhetoric framing societal conflicts in moral, existential terms. Social identity theory: In-group loyalty and out-group antipathy.  Media amplification through "information bubbles" and sensationalism. Negative Consequences for Democracy ○ Causal Chain: Polarization deepens affective division, fostering tribal loyalty and zero-sum perceptions. Distrust and antagonism between groups impede governance and foster gridlock or democratic backsliding. ○ Outcomes: Gridlock and Policy Careening: Paralysis in governance or erratic policy shifts. Democratic Erosion under New Elites: Consolidation of power and curtailment of freedoms (e.g., Turkey, Venezuela). Democratic Erosion with Old Elites: Backlash by former elites leading to instability. Case Studies ○ Hungary: Transition from ideological to cultural polarization. Fidesz party leveraged nationalist rhetoric, consolidating power through constitutional changes. Result: Democratic backsliding with concentrated power and reduced civil liberties. ○ Turkey: AKP (Erdogan’s party) utilized religious-secular divides to gain power. Increasing authoritarianism, erosion of checks and balances, and societal division. Democratic collapse into an illiberal regime. ○ United States: Historical racial and partisan divides exacerbated by Obama’s election and Trump’s populism. Manifestations: Legislative gridlock, heightened negative partisanship, and democratic norm violations. ○ Venezuela: Chavez mobilized marginalized groups with polarizing populist rhetoric. Opposition backlash led to authoritarian consolidation under Maduro. Freedom and democratic norms eroded significantly. Broader Implications and Conclusion ○ Polarization Dynamics: Similar patterns of elite-driven divisiveness across countries despite differing contexts. Severe polarization transforms political competition into existential conflict. ○ Democracy's Future: Societies must reverse or manage polarization to prevent democratic collapse. Failure to address polarization risks perpetuating cycles of division and authoritarianism. — A. Klein, “From Twitter to Charlottesville” (pp. 297-318) Main Argument ○ Adam Klein’s study explores the role of Twitter in fueling political hostilities between alt-right factions and Antifa, analyzing their rhetoric and framing during the six weeks leading up to the 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville. Through a detailed textual analysis, the study highlights how these groups used Twitter to mobilize supporters, demonize opponents, and justify potential violence under the guise of political activism. Background ○ The Charlottesville rally was a culmination of increasing online hostilities between the alt-right and Antifa. It demonstrated how social media serves as a staging ground for political conflicts that escalate into physical violence. ○ While alt-right factions like the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers focus on nationalism and identity politics, Antifa positions itself against fascism and racism, targeting both far-right groups and law enforcement. Key Findings ○ Rhetoric and Framing: Both groups defined themselves as defenders of a cause—alt-right groups framed themselves as patriots defending “Western civilization” from liberal and foreign threats, while Antifa saw itself as a moral force against fascism and hate. The alt-right's rhetoric often dehumanized their enemies, referring to liberals and minorities as threats to American identity. Antifa labeled their opponents as fascists, framing their opposition as a fight for human rights.  ○ Pretexts for Violence: The alt-right used cultural and political grievances, such as opposition to immigration or the removal of Confederate statues, to galvanize followers. Antifa emphasized police complicity with racist groups, portraying themselves as the only effective force against fascism. Both groups relied on emotionally charged language to justify their actions as morally or politically necessary. ○ Twitter as a Platform: Twitter amplified hostilities through features like retweets and hashtags, creating echo chambers that radicalized participants. Common tactics included mockery, alarmist rhetoric, and direct calls for action, often cloaked in ambiguous language to skirt platform rules. The study identified over 1,100 community appeals in tweets, ranging from calls for solidarity to explicit incitements of force. ○ Discussion Klein argues that the tribalism evident in these groups’ Twitter activity reflects broader societal divisions. By framing their conflicts in moral or patriotic terms, both the alt-right and Antifa created narratives that justified aggressive actions. This dynamic highlights the need for nuanced oversight of social media to mitigate the spread of extremist ideologies. The study concludes by emphasizing the role of platforms like Twitter in transforming political debates into battlegrounds, where words escalate into real-world violence. It calls for future research on social media’s influence on political extremism and the effectiveness of regulatory measures in curbing such rhetoric. Week 10: De-Globalization — S. Lund & L. Tyson, “Globalization is Not in Retreat” (pp. 130-140) Susan Lund and Laura Tyson argue that globalization is evolving rather than retreating, with digital technologies reshaping the global economy. Despite a slowdown in traditional trade and increasing protectionism, the authors highlight how digital flows, emerging economies, and new trade dynamics define the modern phase of globalization. Key Points ○ Shift in Globalization Patterns:  Traditional globalization, marked by goods trade and Western leadership, is slowing due to factors like mature global supply chains and reduced cross-border financial flows. Digital technologies, including data flows, e-commerce, and automation, are emerging as the driving forces of globalization, enabling broader participation in global trade. ○ Rise of Digital Trade: Digital flows, such as video streaming and cross-border e-commerce, are surpassing physical trade in significance. Cross-border data usage has grown exponentially. Platforms like Amazon, Alibaba, and Facebook enable small and medium-sized businesses to reach global markets, creating opportunities for "micro-multinationals." ○ Emerging Economies Take the Lead: The balance of economic power is shifting towards emerging economies like China, which now dominates e-commerce and is investing heavily in AI and digital infrastructure. South-South trade is growing rapidly, with Asia becoming a major hub for intra-regional commerce. ○ Challenges of the Digital Era: While digital globalization offers benefits like innovation and productivity, it also introduces significant challenges, such as inequality, job displacement, and competition for talent. Some industries face shorter product cycles and increased competition due to faster innovation and mass customization capabilities. ○ Protectionism and Digital Barriers: Digital protectionism, such as data localization laws in China and Russia, poses a threat to global connectivity and economic efficiency, potentially reducing growth rates. ○ Recommendations for the Future ○ Policy and Infrastructure: Governments must invest in robust broadband networks and digital skills education, integrating coding and technical training into curricula from an early age. Trade agreements should address issues like data privacy and cybersecurity to harmonize global rules and remove barriers to digital trade. ○ Support for Affected Workers and Communities:  To counter the backlash against globalization, policies must ensure benefits are distributed widely. Governments should offer income support, worker retraining, and incentives for local economic revitalization. ○ Corporate Adaptation: Companies need to embrace digital technologies, develop global talent strategies, and localize operations to meet diverse consumer demands. Strong ties with governments and corporate social responsibility are becoming essential. ○ Conclusion Globalization is not retreating; it is transforming into a digital-centric paradigm. Embracing this new phase while addressing its disruptions is key to ensuring inclusive and sustainable benefits. Governments and businesses must collaborate to maximize opportunities and mitigate risks in this evolving global landscape. — J. Owen, “Two emerging international orders?” (pp. 1415-1431) Main Argument Owen explores the potential emergence of two distinct international orders driven by the competition between the United States and China. The liberal international order (LIO), led by the United States, and a potential authoritarian-capitalist international order (ACIO), led by China, represent contrasting governance and economic models, which could define global relations if deglobalization continues. Key Points Deglobalization and Its Implications: ○ Deglobalization is the partial reversal of the interconnectedness that defined globalization, marked by increasing closure of state borders. ○ This process threatens the liberal international order (LIO), which is rooted in open markets, democratic governance, and multilateralism. Two Emerging Orders: ○ Liberal International Order (LIO): Promotes democracy, free markets, and global governance institutions. Supported historically by the U.S. and allied democratic states. ○ Authoritarian-Capitalist International Order (ACIO):  Led by China, emphasizing state-led development, authoritarian governance, and reduced emphasis on human rights. Aims to safeguard China’s domestic regime while reducing the liberal bias in global institutions. China's Strategy: ○ Utilizes initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to build economic interdependence and reduce reliance on liberal democracies. ○ Shapes international norms and institutions to weaken the dominance of liberal principles (e.g., modifying human rights frameworks). ○ Employs soft power and infrastructure projects to influence developing nations and promote its governance model. Evolutionary Perspective: ○ Owen uses evolutionary theory to explain how states attempt to construct environments that favor their preferred governance models. ○ The LIO was a deliberate effort by the U.S. after WWII to create an international system conducive to democracy. China is similarly shaping its environment to favor autocracy. Historical Context and Parallels: The Cold War saw two competing blocs with distinct governance and economic systems. The potential LIO and ACIO might mirror this dynamic, but with more interconnectedness in trade and investment. Challenges and Outcomes: Interdependence and Rivalry: ○ Both orders are likely to overlap, especially in areas like trade and environmental governance, but diverge on human rights and internet governance. Resistance and Blurring Boundaries: ○ Many states, especially in Southeast Asia, may try to avoid aligning fully with either order, complicating the bifurcation. Implications for the Liberal International Order: ○ The LIO must regain strength and internal coherence to compete effectively with the ACIO. ○ The U.S. and its allies face the challenge of balancing competition with China while avoiding a new Cold War. Conclusion: The emergence of two international orders reflects ongoing shifts in global power and governance. While this duality could stabilize differing political systems, it would come at the cost of reduced global integration and wealth. Whether the world moves toward such a bifurcated system depends on the policies and adaptability of leading powers. Week 10: The Better Angels? —S. Pinker, Selection from The Better Angels of Our Nature (pp. 671-696) Main Argument ○ Steven Pinker reflects on the decline of violence throughout human history, attributing this trend to several broad forces that have emerged over time. These include advancements in reason, empathy, governance, and global interconnectedness. He argues that the reduction of violence is not a guaranteed trajectory but rather the result of specific social, cultural, and material conditions. Key Points Historical Decline of Violence ○ Violence has decreased over millennia, evidenced by reduced homicide rates, the abolition of slavery, human sacrifice, and torture, and the decline of war, genocide, and violence against marginalized groups. ○ This decline has been driven by historical processes such as the Pacification Process, Humanitarian Revolution, Long Peace, and Rights Revolutions. Forces Reducing Violence 1. The Leviathan: ○ Strong centralized governments reduce interpersonal violence by monopolizing the legitimate use of force. ○ This shift began with early states, continued with the consolidation of European kingdoms, and extends to modern law enforcement. ○ Ineffective governance, by contrast, correlates with higher violence levels (e.g., failed states). 2. Gentle Commerce: ○ Economic interdependence through trade fosters cooperation, reducing the incentive for conflict. ○ Societies that prioritize commerce over conquest tend to be more peaceful. 3. Feminization:  ○ The increasing influence of women in social and political life correlates with declining violence. ○ Societies that empower women tend to experience less domestic and political violence. 4. Expanding Circles of Empathy: ○ Cultural and technological advances (e.g., books, media, and travel) have expanded people's capacity to empathize with others beyond their immediate social circles. ○ This empathy fosters a moral aversion to violence. 5. The Escalator of Reason: ○ Rationality and the application of scientific principles have undermined superstitions and ideologies that justified violence. ○ Reason has also supported the creation of institutions (e.g., democracy, international law) that reduce conflict. Challenges and Limitations Technological Determinism: ○ The availability of weapons does not directly correlate with violence rates; human motivations remain the critical factor. Resource Competition: ○ While resources have historically been a source of conflict, economic interdependence often neutralizes these tensions in modern societies. Youth Bulges: ○ Populations with a high proportion of young males are more prone to violence, especially in poor or patriarchal societies. Reflections The decline of violence is one of humanity's most significant achievements, but it requires vigilance to sustain. The trend toward peace is not guaranteed and depends on the continuation of the forces Pinker identifies. By understanding and nurturing these forces, societies can strive for a more peaceful future. Conclusion ○ Pinker concludes with a note of gratitude for the conditions that have allowed violence to decline, urging readers to appreciate and protect the achievements of  civilization. This historical trajectory, while incomplete, provides a framework for optimism about humanity's capacity to overcome its darker impulses. — M. Stephan & E. Chenoweth, “Why Civil Resistance Works” (pp. 7-44) ○ Major nonviolent campaigns have achieved success 53 percent of the time, compared with 26 percent for violent resistance campaigns ○ Nonviolent methods enhances its domestic and international legitimacy and encourages more broad-based participation in the resistance, which translates into increased pressure being brought to bear on the target ○ Whereas governments easily justify violent counterattacks against armed insurgents, regime violence against nonviolent movements is more likely to backfire against the regime ○ Nonviolent resistance is a civilian-based method used to wage conflict through social, psychological, economic, and political means without the threat or use of violence. It includes acts of omission, acts of commission, or a combination of both. Scholars have identified hundreds of nonviolent methods - including symbolic protests, economic boycotts, labor strikes, political and social non cooperation