Ch. 6 Determine Threat Courses of Action

• Chapter 6 is about determining threat courses of action (COAs).
• Step 4 of the intelligence preparation of the battlespace (IPOE) process identifies and describes threat COAs that can influence friendly operations.

Determining Threat Courses of Action

• Determining threat COAs involves a two-step process with specific substeps and outputs.
• The first step is to develop threat COAs, and the second step is to develop the event template and matrix.
• Substeps for developing threat COAs:
  • Identify likely objectives and the end state
  • Determine threat battlefield functions
  • Determine threat capabilities available to perform each battlefield function
  • Identify the full set of COAs available to the threat
  • Evaluate and prioritize each threat COA
  • Develop each COA in as much detail as time allows
  • Identify high-value targets (HVTs) for each COA
  • Identify initial collection requirements for each COA
• Substeps for developing an event template and matrix:
  • Evaluate each COA to identify associated named areas of interest (NAIs)
  • Determine where events may occur that differentiate between threat COAs; these areas evolve into NAIs
  • Evaluate the time phase lines
  • Evaluate the decision points
  • Evaluate the indicators
  • Determine NAIs

Developing Threat Courses of Action

• Requires understanding threat characteristics, terrain effects, weather, and civil considerations on operations.
• Population effects on operations must be annotated, to ensure they're portrayed during war games.
• The most important element when determining threat COAs is understanding threat operational art and tactics, so that U.S. forces are prepared to encounter regular, irregular, and hybrid threats.
• Identify likely threat objectives and the end state based on mission variables analysis, these elements should be included in the threat COA statement for each COA.
• Threat objectives are usually terrain- or force-oriented (enemy may attack to destroy a friendly force, defend to delay a friendly force, or conduct guerrilla operations to disrupt friendly operations).
• The end state is the set of required conditions that defines the achievement of the commander's objectives. For example, the end state for an attack to destroy forces may be the destruction of all friendly forces.
• For regular threats, the end state is based on effect and time.
• Irregular threat objectives are event-driven (a group’s objective may be to prevent U.S. forces from providing security to the general population), the end state is to convince the population to rely on the group instead of U.S. forces.
• Hybrid threat objectives may be terrain- or force-oriented, and the end state may be based on effect and time.

Determining Threat Battlefield Functions

• A threat executes different battlefield functions each time it attempts to accomplish a mission, and commanders identify specific functions for subordinate forces or elements to perform.
• The functions do not change based on the location of the forces, while diverse functions can be divided into action and enabling.
• The action function is performed by the set of capabilities accomplishing a given mission, if the threat objective is to destroy a city with a weapon of mass destruction (WMD), the WMD is performing the action function.
• One part of the unit or group of units conducting a particular action normally performs the goal of that action, known as the action force or action element.
• Action Force Example
  • If the objective of the action conducts an assault, the assault element completes that action.
  • In larger offensive actions, the exploitation force completes the primary offensive mission by exploiting a window of opportunity created by another force.
  • In defensive actions, the main defense force performs the main defensive mission, with a combination of the contact force and the shielding force

Enabling Function

• The enabling function acts to assist those capabilities in performing the action function.
• Example: If the mission is to enter a U.S. base and set off an explosive device, an enabling function would be penetrating the perimeter defenses of the base, with the other organization parts providing enabling functions of various kinds.
  • A force that enables by fixing threats so the threats cannot interfere with the primary action is a fixing force.
  • An element that creates a breach to enable an assault element to assault threats on the far side of an obstacle is a breach element.
• In larger offensive actions, one force can enable another by conducting an assault to exploit the effects to accomplish the objective.
• Elements
  • Disruption forces operate to prevent U.S. forces from executing friendly COAs and from interfering with threat COAs.
  • Fixing function is performed by a set of capabilities that acts to prevent opposing capabilities from interfering with mission accomplishment.
  • Security function is performed by a set of capabilities that acts to protects other capabilities from observation, destruction, or becoming fixed.
• A threat commander may designate a subordinate unit to conduct a deception action known as a deception force/element, intending to lead the threat to act in ways prejudicial to the threat or favoring the success of a threat action force/element.
• A threat commander may also designate some subordinates to perform support functions.
  • Can perform support by fires, provide support or sustainment (combat or combat service support), or provide C2 functions.
• At a commander's discretion, some forces or elements may be held out of the initial action, in reserve, pending determination of their specific function, later receiving the appropriate functional force designatio

Determining Threat Capabilities

• Upon determining the battlefield functions and what goal the threat commander seeks to accomplish, analysts determine what capabilities the threat has to execute each function.
• The means to accomplish functions depends on the location, threat, as well as environment.
• Functional analysis is a technique depicting how the threat might use its capabilities, which forces analysts and staff to understand tactics and how the threat works across operations reducing deception.

Threat Courses of Action

• Each threat capability has unique COAs available at any time; any threat plans the employment of specific capabilities based on a task, purpose, method, and end state.
• Identification of these elements for each COA helps the intelligence staff better determine the chosen threat COA.
• Analysis to identify threat COAs is familiar as it mirrors the methodology used to identify COAs for friendly capabilities.
• When determining a threat COA, the intelligence staff accounts for nearly all relevant threat activity, including:
  • Current threat situation
  • Mission (task and purpose)
  • Threat objectives, methods, and functions, and end state
  • Commander's intent, purpose, and end state
  • Task organization
  • Capabilities and Vulnerabilities
  • HVTs
  • Decision and decisive points.
• The intelligence staff considers each branch and sequels. Considerations also include movement and maneuver, reconnaissance and surveillance, fires support, logistics, threat C2, protection, information activities, and denial and deception.
• How terrain, weather, and civil considerations, how displaced civilians and displaced persons, and the presence and actions of U.S. forces affect threat operations are also part of the determination of threat courses of action.
• The staff focuses on the determining main, supporting, and reinforcing efforts. Use of reserves; use of special munitions; use of air support; and use of unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) to support fires, and on threat defensive operations such as location, type, and size of security zone forces and counterattack forces, and special munitions, air support, UASs, and antiaccess and area denial systems.
• COAs for irregular threat capabilities is less familiar to the intelligence staff because the capabilities are not in current operational doctrine. The intelligence staff should set aside familiar terms and develop a new set of analytical criteria.

Courses of Action for Regular and Hybrid Threats

• Staff develops COAs focused on the objectives and end state of that command structure. The staff develops COAs for each of the multiple threats when faced with varied objectives, such as during stability operations.
• The staff assist in this understanding by determining all valid threat COAs and prioritizing them - from most likely to least likely, and determines which COA is the most dangerous to friendly forces to be valid.
• Threat COAs should be feasible, acceptable, suitable, distinguishable, and complete; the same criteria used to validate friendly COAs.

Selecting A Course Of Action

• The commander approves a plan to counter the most likely threat while allowing for contingency options if the threat chooses another COA. The staff evaluates each threat and prioritizes it according to the threat's likely adoption of the option.
• Threat forces are more likely to use a COA that offers the greatest advantage while minimizing risk. It's impossible to predict the COA the threat will choose, therefor, the staff develops and prioritizes as many valid threat COAs as time allows but, at a minimum, the most likely and dangerous COAs.
• Compare each COA to the others and prioritizes them by number, additionally, determine which COA is the most dangerous and needs to answer six basic questions:
  • Who (the organizational structure of the threat organization, including external organizations providing support)
  • What (type of tactical mission task such as defeat, destroy, seize)
  • When (the earliest time the action can begin)
  • Where (the battlefield geometry that frames the COA [boundaries, objectives, routes, other])
  • How (the threat attacks, defends)
  • Why (the threat's objectives
• A threat COA consists of the products of a situation template for the threat COA and a threat COA statement.
• A situation template is a depiction of assumed enemy dispositions, and impact of the operational environment
• A situation template graphic depicts a potential threat COA as part of a threat operation, which depicts the most critical point in the operation as agreed upon by the commander, instead these snapshots are useful in depicting the following when in the battle, places where the threat is especially vulnerable, and other key points in the battle.
• Situation templates are developed using the threat's current situation, based on threat doctrine and the effects of terrain, weather, and civil considerations (rates of march/time phase lines).
• For modifying a threat situation template, the basis is the the significant effects the operational environment may have on the threat COA in the long distance.

Analytical Template Development

• Analysts begin with the threat template developed during the IPOE process, and adjust the dispositions portrayed on the threat template to account for environmental effects guided what they have learnt about their tactics and what they have available to them.
• Ensure that the template reflects the main effort identified for the COA, include as much detail in situation template as needed.
• The description of preferred tactics accompanies the threat model when thinking through the COA scheme of maneuver, visualize transitions through the template to create an effective process and strategy. Evaluate time and space to create time phase lines for phases of battles effectively.
• Use modifications and judgement for rapid responses as they are needed, and also consider environmental effects.
• Analysts can preapare as many graphics as necessary to depict the course of action (COA) until able to support collection planning and staff games.
• Situation templates focusing on reconnaissance assets can be used to determine threat's COA.

Tactics from an Airforce

• Airforce Units develop situation templates depicting specific radar and Air Defence Artillery weapon locations along with range or coverage levels.
• There are several overlays that staff may develop
  • Primary Types
    • The enemy is on offense ( locations and operations are largely assumptious)
    • The enemy is on Defense ( because enemy is more static in defensive operations, there the information related to enemy locations help develope the overlay effectively )
    • Irregular forces

Regular Forces

• Staff should depict enemy activies and locations two levels down.
• Irregular Enemies - Staff in every echelon must see different cells.

Overlay Depiction

• The staff constructs an enemy offensive operation overlay as well as operation overlay to increase the five step process effectivness. Determine enemy intent to make effect. Most enemy offensive objective are force-orientated.

• step, review forces offensive plan, and review commander perpose for the offense such as gain of equipment/restrictment as well as more. 2 - IDETITFY THE FINCTIONS TO USED BY STATE SUCH AS ELEMENTS AS WELL AS WHAT MAKES POSSIBLE ACCOMPLISH such a to fix. Step - 3 Locate Resourses, by asking what can they do to suceed. Step Synconize enemy perpose and attck, review. Hospitals + all other. Review all with staff.

• The COA, is the narrative. Every COA includes it.

High Value Targets

• Involves war gaming in a way.

Information Collection

• The steps necassary to fully use.
• Infor Requirements

The Event Template

• Intel, analytical planning tools.
• Guide plan.
• TimePhase
• The intel.

Test your knowledge of military functions including enabling, fixing, disruption, security and breach elements. Questions cover roles, objectives and benefits of these forces in offensive and defensive operations. Understand how these functions contribute to mission accomplishment.