Podcast
Questions and Answers
What heuristic did participants primarily rely on when assessing the probability that Jack was an engineer?
What heuristic did participants primarily rely on when assessing the probability that Jack was an engineer?
What is the conjunction fallacy?
What is the conjunction fallacy?
In the study regarding the blue saliva test, which group used the base-rate information effectively?
In the study regarding the blue saliva test, which group used the base-rate information effectively?
How did emotional responses influence participants' judgments in the medical test study?
How did emotional responses influence participants' judgments in the medical test study?
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Why did participants incorrectly believe Linda was more likely to be a feminist bank teller?
Why did participants incorrectly believe Linda was more likely to be a feminist bank teller?
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What bias is indicated by the tendency to judge the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind?
What bias is indicated by the tendency to judge the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind?
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In the context of diagnosing medical cases, what factor can lead doctors to make biased decisions?
In the context of diagnosing medical cases, what factor can lead doctors to make biased decisions?
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What effect does cognitive load have on decision-making in relation to the availability heuristic?
What effect does cognitive load have on decision-making in relation to the availability heuristic?
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What is a reason for inaccurate judgments, according to the discussion on biases?
What is a reason for inaccurate judgments, according to the discussion on biases?
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Which heuristic involves starting with an initial estimate and then adjusting based on new information?
Which heuristic involves starting with an initial estimate and then adjusting based on new information?
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What is a defining characteristic of System 1 processing?
What is a defining characteristic of System 1 processing?
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Which statement accurately reflects the relationship between System 1 and System 2 processes?
Which statement accurately reflects the relationship between System 1 and System 2 processes?
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What was a significant finding regarding participant responses to base-rate problems?
What was a significant finding regarding participant responses to base-rate problems?
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What does the alignment problem suggest about System 1 and System 2 characteristics?
What does the alignment problem suggest about System 1 and System 2 characteristics?
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What does the good/bad fallacy suggest about System 1 and System 2 processing?
What does the good/bad fallacy suggest about System 1 and System 2 processing?
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How does accountability influence decision-making regarding previously ineffective choices?
How does accountability influence decision-making regarding previously ineffective choices?
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What bias is more prevalent when individuals feel accountable for their decisions, particularly in the context of accepting new drugs?
What bias is more prevalent when individuals feel accountable for their decisions, particularly in the context of accepting new drugs?
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In a study involving medical experts, what was the effect of accountability on their decision-making regarding treatment?
In a study involving medical experts, what was the effect of accountability on their decision-making regarding treatment?
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What is a primary advantage of the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach in real-world decision-making?
What is a primary advantage of the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach in real-world decision-making?
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What simple heuristic was evaluated against more complex models in investment decision-making, and what was the outcome?
What simple heuristic was evaluated against more complex models in investment decision-making, and what was the outcome?
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Study Notes
Introduction to Judgement and Decision-Making
- Judgement involves evaluating the likelihood of events with incomplete information, accuracy is a key measure.
- Decision-making involves choosing from multiple options, differentiating from problem-solving which entails generating solutions.
- Consequences are typically assessed in decisions, but good decisions can lead to poor outcomes.
- Judgement is often a critical preliminary step in the decision-making process.
Judgement Research
- Bayesian inference refines prior beliefs by incorporating new evidence.
- Ignoring base rates (prior probabilities) is a common judgement bias.
- Heuristics are simplified decision-making strategies that prioritize speed and efficiency over accuracy.
- Representativeness heuristic assumes objects conform to established category prototypes.
- The conjunction fallacy leads to the belief that combined events are more probable than individual events.
Heeding Base Rates
- People sometimes incorporate base rates in their judgements even though they typically ignore them.
- An individual's motivation can influence whether base rates are considered.
Availability Heuristic
- People overestimate the frequency of events easily recalled.
- Media coverage or personal experience strongly influence this heuristic.
- Affect heuristic suggests that emotional responses can bias judgments.
- The subjective ease of recalling events drives probability estimations.
Availability and Affect Heuristics Example
- Study participants estimated the likelihood of death by different causes; those with more media coverage were judged more frequent.
- This can be a result of the availability heuristic, personal experiences in conjunction with media influence, or both.
Theories of Judgement
- Support theory suggests that the wording of a question impacts the perceived likelihood of an event.
- Subadditivity effect - The combined probabilities of several events are perceived lower than the probability of any individual event.
- Natural frequency hypothesis - Representing events in frequencies (rather than probabilities) facilitates better judgement and decision making.
- Natural frequency hypothesis Example- Simple frequency representation of factual scenarios often improve understanding and correctness compared to probabilistic presentation.
Dual-Process Theory
- Kahneman's dual-process theory suggests two systems for cognitive processing.
- System 1 - Fast, intuitive, automatic, and emotionally driven.
- System 2 - Slower, deliberate, conscious, and controlled.
- Decision errors often stem from System 1 biases, which are sometimes corrected by System 2.
Fast and Frugal Heuristics
- Take-the-best heuristic: Selecting the option with the most important attribute or feature, is a simple and effective option.
- Recognition heuristic: Choosing the option that is more easily recognized due to familiarity.
- Elimination-by-aspects heuristic: Evaluation of options based upon a single attribute or aspect.
Decision-making Under Risk
- Prospect theory: Decisions are influenced by gains and losses relative to a reference point more than the absolute value of outcomes.
- Loss aversion: Losses are perceived as more impactful than equivalent gains.
- Framing effect: The way options are presented impacts decisions.
- Sunk-cost effect: Persistence in a course of action due to past investments, even if further investments are inadvisable.
Emotional and Social Factors
- Emotional factors influence decisions.
- Regret is associated with riskier choices following losses.
- Elation associated with riskier choices following wins.
- Social factors influence decision-making (Accountability, Social perception, Group influence).
- Impact bias overestimates the intensity and duration of emotional reactions.
Prospect Theory
- People are sensitive to perceived gains or losses rather than the final monetary outcome.
- Loss aversion: losses are more impactful (negative influence).
- Framing effect: The presentation of choices influences the decision.
Naturalistic Decision-Making
- Galotti's theory outlines decision-making phases in unstructured environments: setting goals, gathering information, decision structuring, decision-making, and evaluation.
- Recognition-primed decision-making emphasizes pattern recognition and mental simulation in rapid decisions.
- Klein's model predicts that experts frequently rely on prior experiences and pattern recognition to make high-pressure decisions.
- Unconscious thought theory: unconscious thought may improve decision-making during complex tasks.
Additional Articles
- There is an article on nudging healthy food choices by using default options in randomized trials.
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Description
Explore the fundamental concepts of judgement and decision-making in this quiz. Understand how judgement biases, heuristics, and Bayesian inference influence the decision-making process. Test your knowledge on evaluating likelihoods and the significance of base rates in making informed choices.
