Psychology Chapter on Judgment and Heuristics

Judgment and Reasoning

• This unit covers heuristics, biases, and models of decision-making.
• Heuristics are quick, efficient strategies that often work but can lead to errors.
• Judgment heuristics include anchoring, attribute substitution, availability, and representativeness.
• Anchoring is using a reference point (e.g., initial price) to influence subsequent judgments.
• Attribute substitution involves using readily available information that correlates with the desired information.
• Availability is making decisions based on how easily something comes to mind.
• Representativeness is judging based on how well an individual or event matches a prototype.

Heuristics

• Heuristics are mental shortcuts used in problem-solving.
• Judgment heuristics include anchoring, availability, representativeness, attribute substitution, and affective heuristics (emotion).

Anchoring

• Anchoring involves using a particular piece of information or reference point to make subsequent judgments.
• Judgments and perceptions are relative to experience and the anchor.
• People often adhere to initial information and their existing perceptions, even if it is illogical.

Anchoring Bias

• Judgments and perceptions are relative to experience, anchoring in judgment and perception affects behaviors and decisions.

Anchors Influencing Judgments

• Anchors can influence judgments.
• Anchoring bias is demonstrated when given an initial value or reference point; subsequent judgments are influenced.

Examples of Anchoring

• Providing a price range can influence how much people are willing to pay.
• Asking questions in a particular order can impact the answers.

Attribute Substitution

• Attribute substitution is using readily available information as a substitute for needed information.
• This is a cognitive shortcut that is quick, however, might lead to errors.
• Examples include using apparent fluency for truth or ease of recall for frequency.

Examples of Attribute Substitution

• Processing fluency (ease of processing) is used as a substitute for goodness/truth.
• Using appearance as a substitute for quality, beauty as good.

Illusions of Covariation

• These illusions involve mistakenly believing that two variables are related when they are not.
• Examples include the halo effect (beautiful = good) and associating high profits with good quality.

Availability Heuristic

• Making judgments on the ease (or fluency) of something coming to mind.
• An easy-to-recall event is perceived as more frequent or important.
• Vivid or recent events are often overestimated in frequency.
• For example, recalling experiences like being assertive more easily leads to judging oneself more assertively, compared with recalling experiences of being unassertive.

Availability Heuristic - Assessing Probability

• Assessing probability is based on processing fluency (ease of a thing being processed), and frequency.
• An easier-to-process thing is often perceived as more true or familiar.

Availability Heuristic - Examples

• Recalling autobiographical memories are better remembered than others—that is, your memory may emphasize those memories with more emotion.
• One is inclined to overestimate the likelihood of an event if recalling it is easier.

Representativeness Heuristics

• Making judgments based on prototypes and/or exemplars, assuming all members resemble the prototype.
• Judging a person based on their representation of a group, disregarding base rates, and relying on stereotypes.

Representativeness - From Individual to Population

• Reason from a single example to a population.
• Assuming all members of a category have the specific traits one observes in an example.

Representativeness - From Population to Individual

• Reason from an overall population to an individual.
• Assuming a member of a population will also have the general traits of that population.

Gambler's Fallacy

• The mistaken belief that past random events affect the likelihood of future random events.
• Chance events are independent.

Base-Rate Fallacy

• Underestimating the base rate (the overall probability) of an event in favor of specific evidence (diagnostic information).
• People often prioritize diagnostic information, leading to bias and ignoring base rates,

Conjunction Fallacy

• Believing the probability of two events occurring together is higher than the probability of either individual event.
• Specific conditions are presumed more probable than a single, general one.

Dual-Process Model

• Decision-making involving two systems (System 1: fast, automatic, error-prone, and System 2: slow, effortful, reliable).
• System 1 vs System 2: Decision-making style depends on decision context, time constraints, and information format.
• Use of System 2 is more likely under primed statistical concepts, known background knowledge of base rates, and training experience.
• System 1 relies on quick, automatic judgments and often ignores statistical concepts and base rates, while System 2 uses careful consideration and is more rational.

Confirmation Bias

• The tendency to seek and interpret information that confirms existing beliefs and expectations.
• Disregarding contradictory information that disproves beliefs rather than confirming them
• Confirmation bias influences perception, attention, and memory.

Belief Perseverance

• Continuing to endorse a belief despite discrediting evidence.
• Pre-existing opinions affect interpretations of new information.
• New information is not equally valid across impressions

Framing Effect

• The influence of how an issue or problem is presented (framed).
• Framing impacts how a problem is interpreted.
• Word choices change interpretation.

Affective Heuristics

• Decision-making based on emotions.
• Emotions are crucial for evaluating somatic markers (body states) – e.g., feeling fear, dread, or remorse.
• Emotional evaluations of a potential outcome can change one's decision.
• The orbitofrontal cortex is imperative for processing this emotional component.
• People tend to overestimate future emotional responses to outcomes.

Reason-Based Choice

• Decision-making based on reasons and logic.
• This choice mechanism is often subject to biases and can cause stress and unhappiness, when presented with too many options (e.g. many choices in products, in services, in life)

Paradox of Choice

• More choices may lead to harder decisions, diminished satisfaction, and/or stress and unhappiness.
• Choice overload causes stress in decision-making.

This quiz explores key concepts in judgment and reasoning, focusing on heuristics and biases in decision-making. Key topics include anchoring, attribute substitution, availability, and representativeness. Test your understanding of how these mental shortcuts can influence our judgments and decisions.