Global Population Trends

Global Population Trends

• This chapter introduces demography and its key themes, e.g., the relationship between population and resources (food, water, energy), environmental degradation, social and political dynamics, the Middle East, and the rights of women
• Demography focuses on factors influencing population size, growth, characteristics, and distribution
• An understanding of demographic forces is essential for addressing global challenges
• It examines world population growth, redistribution through migration, the urban revolution, and regional variations in population size and growth
• High death rates kept the world population from growing rapidly until the Industrial Revolution
• Migration has rapidly increased from less developed to more developed nations
• Demography is the description of people, derived from Greek origin
• Demography is the natural and social history of human species or the mathematical knowledge of populations, their general changes, and their physical, civil, intellectual, and moral condition
• Human population includes size, spatial distribution, and composition
• Age, sex, birthplace, socioeconomic characteristics, occupations, culture, ethnicity, and immigrant/refugee status are characteristics of a population
• Dynamics and changes happen via births, deaths, migration
• Morbidity, family/household relationships, war, climate change, culture, and religion are driving moments
• Determinants and consequences of population characteristics and change are linked to social change and demography
• Demographic structure and development are important for planning by public and private entities, like insurance, rent, and pension
• Fertility and education, educated women postpone/reduce births

Impacts of Social Change

• Parents can invest more in their children's education
• Technology led to the creation of the birth control pill
• Unrest manifests through large youthful cohorts/youth-age bulges
• Rapid demographic changes and fluctuation affects political instability
• Difficulties for state planning arise
• Large youth-age bulges exacerbate challenges for governments, such as unemployment and job creation
• Insufficient provision of housing, education, and medical care is a challenge

The Demographic Balancing Equation

• Pt+1 = Pt + Bt,t+1 - Dt,t+1 + INt,t+1 - OUTt,t+1
• Pt+1 is the population at time t+1
• Pt is the population at time t
• Bt,t+1 is the number of births between time t and t+1
• Dt,t+1 is the number of deaths between time t and t+1
• INt,t+1 is the number of immigrants between time t and t+1
• OUTt,t+1 is the number of emigrants between time t and t+1
• World population stands at 8.2 billion
• Spain’s population rose from 30 to 47 million since 1960

History of Population Growth

• Humans have existed for about 300,000 years, spending 95% of that time as hunter-gatherers
• Extensive use of resources existed
• Nomadic life emerged from limited carrying capacity, defined as the maximum population size an environment can sustain
• Approximately 4 million people lived in the world during this era
• The Neolithic revolution, 10,000 years ago, led to agricultural life and growth
• By 500 B.C., major civilizations like the Greek, Roman Empire, China's Han Dynasty, and India's Golden Age arose, adding 100,000 people each year
• A slow growth period occurred from 300 A.D. until the 14th century due to the disintegration of major empires
• Plague caused a temporary population collapse, with the Black Death killing 75 to 200 million globally
• From 1650-1800, the population doubled from 500 million to 1 billion through scientific-technological advances and European expansion overseas
• The past 220 years show an eightfold increase, from 1 billion in 1800 to 8 billion in 2022
• The peak of the annual growth rate was in 1974
• Asia has always been the continent with the highest population
• Today, Europe, South/North America, and Africa have similar population numbers
• Population growth comes from higher natural growth rates, i.e., lower mortality and possibly higher fertility
• There’s more immigration, including cross-border and rural-urban movement
• Urbanization is mainly a change in within-country distribution through migration

Future Distribution Projections

• In 1800, less than 1% of the world's population lived in cities of 100,000 or more
• Now, more than 1/2 of all humans now live in cities of that size
• This resulted from industrialization/establishment of trade relations due to urban pull factors and rising mechanization of agriculture
• UN future projections estimate a peak of around 10.3 billion in the 2080s, although these projections are outdated fast
• By 2100, over 80% of the population will live in Africa and Asia
• Expect a high rise in Africa
• Asia will see a rise, then a small decline
• North America will experience a small rise; South America will rise slightly and then decline
• Exponential growth since 1800

Demographic Theories, Malthus

• Verpoorten examined Malthus in Rwanda in a study that examines the Malthusian thesis in the context of the Rwandan genocide
• The study investigates the relationship between population pressure, land scarcity, and the intensity of violence
• By conducting meso-level analysis using data from 1,294 small administrative units, assessed the relation between population pressure and the death toll among the Tutsi
• A higher death toll was associated with high population density and little land opportunity for young men
• The study tested hypotheses related to population density, population growth, and proportion of single young men
• Findings suggest that the combination of population density and landlessness contributed to the killings, resulting from tension between subsistence needs and scarce resources
• Malthus and neo-Malthusians stress the local character of the relationship between population pressure, natural resource scarcity, and conflict
• For Malthus, population is checked by famine, disease, or war to keep per capita food production above the subsistence level
• Neo-Malthusians predict an end of prosperity for the world, causing hunger and conflict
• Critics argue that resource scarcity is largely exaggerated and can be dealt with by market pricing and innovation
• Rather than a global Malthusian catastrophe, the world may experience local catastrophes if local market/non-market institutions fail to meet subsistence requirements/resolve tensions
• Malthus was recently proven correct, but the case-study approach has been criticized for sample selection bias and the inability to determine causal relations

High-Intensity Conflict in Rwanda

• Verpoorten conducted a subnational analysis measuring the relationship between population pressure and the intensity of violence
• Rwanda is very densely populated, and the available land is entirely used for cultivation
• Rwanda saw a failure in maintaining food production per capita, leading to land scarcity
• Killings were more severe where tension over land was highest and where many depended on the local elite for land access
• Genocide intensity was greater in localities with higher population densities and growth, plus a large proportion of young men were single
• Killings were more severe in remote areas due to an absence of non-farm work compensating for land scarcity, not population density itself
• An increase in pre-genocide population density by 100 inhabitants per km2 led to a rise in the genocide's death toll by 1 to 2 percentage points
• Younger Tutsi men did not survive genocide an indication of landlessness
• Resources are important, explaining the severity of violence
• Malthus's central argument: Population increases geometrically resources increase arithmetically, leading to a constant strain
• He criticized arguments for the perfectibility of man while discussing implications in different societies
• Malthus argued that population growth will always outstrip the growth of resources, which led him to suggest establishing county workhouses for extreme distress under harsh conditions

Pre-Modern Demographic Theories

• Biblical doctrine is to be “fruitful and multiply"
• In 500 BC, Confucius believed growth is good, but the state should distribute population evenly
• Middle Ages Christianity saw a duality in pronatalists and antinatalist doctrines
• Augustine (ca. 400 A.D.) saw celibacy as ideal, and procreation within marriage as second-best
• Opposition to polygamy, divorce, abortion, and infanticide were common
• Enlightenment (19th century) supported rights of the individual and government accountability from the French and American revolutions
• Reason and science were seen as powerful tools to solve social problems, leading to technological advancements
• In 1945, Notenstein saw that all countries go through process from high to low death and birth rates, which is termed demographic transition
• Overall, birth and death rates are generally declining. Modern fertility control involves conscious birth with marriage
• A decline in child mortality leads to adaption
• More access (technology) to/acceptance of contraception (secularization/culture)
• Modernization: Urbanization, decline of subsistence agriculture, education
• Rise of direct costs and foregone earnings: Urbanization, decline of subsistence agriculture, laws banning child labor, (compulsory) schooling
• Higher opportunity costs: Women's work moved outside home; rise in wages; new leisure opportunities & luxury goods

Modern Genetics

• 93% of all genetic variation is within ethnic groups and only 7% between (including traits like skin color)
• Genotype doesn't determine our phenotype (i.e., genes affect what we might be, not who we are)
• Characteristics of members in a population/subgroup are always the result of a complex biological, social, historical, & environmental equation

Demographic Transition Theory

• Thompson (1929): Countries categorized in groups by patterns of population growth
• Group A: Rapidly declining birth/death rates, with birth rates declining faster (Northern and Western Europe and U.S.)
• Group B: Decline in birth/death rates, with death rates declining faster, growing (Southern and Eastern Europe)
• Group C: High birth/declining death rates, also growing (rest of the world)
• The Stages of DTT: DTT describes change populations change birth/death rates, and overall growth.
• These stages explain population dynamics as societies develop economically/socially

DTT Stages

• Stage 1: Pre-Industrial Society (High Stationary Stage), there are;
• High birth rates due to lack of contraception/high infant mortality/cultural/religious reasons
• High death rates due to illness/poor health care/food shortages/lack of sanitation
• there is only low or stagnant population growth due to equilibrium between births and deaths - e.g Pre-18th century societies (medieval Europe, pre-modern African/Asian societies) - Stage 2; Early Industrial Society (Early Expanding Stage)'s'
  • High birth rates (cultural norms persist, children seen as economic assets)
  • Rapid decline in death rates due to better medicine/improved sanitation/food supply
  • Rapid population growth since birth rates stay high and death rates drop -e.g. 19th-century Europe, early 20th-century developing countries
  • Stage 3; Late Industrial Society (Late Expanding Stage) sees; - Declining birth rates due to Urbanization/education/family planning/economic changes
    • Birth rates which see a slower decline
    • Slowing Population Growth because the gap between birth and death rates narrows
    • E.g Mid-20th century in many developing countries (India, Brazil)
    • Stage 4; Post-Industrial Society (Low Stationary Stage);
      • has Low birth rates due to wide spread contraception/changing social values individuals focusing on jobs
      • has Low Death Rate (stable healthcare/longer life expectancy)
      • almost zero or declining growth (births & deaths are nearly equal)
      • Examples are Modern developed nations (USA, Japan, Germany) - Stage 5(Optional): Declining Population Stage has; -low birth rates owing to aging population/career prioritizes/low fertility rates
        • Death Rates R remain low or rise slightly because aging
        • A Negative or shrinking (fewer births than death) Population Growth
        • and examples in Japan/S Korea/Italy/Eastern European countries - Note All countries progress at varying rates according to healthcare/industrialization/culture
          • The model does explain developed nations' slow or negative population growth and rapid growth in developing nations

Demography Data and Homelessness

• Coumans focuses on estimating homelessness in the Netherlands using the Capture-Recapture (CRC) method
• Homeless people are difficult to reach and they need to be incorporated into statistics
• European Typology of Homelessness and Housing Exclusion (ETHOS):
• Roofless, houseless, insecure accommodation, and inadequate accommodation
• Roofless + houseless = homelessness
• Study focuses on rooflessness in 3 categories:
• People who sleep outdoors, people who spend the night in transient homeless accommodation, people who sleep indoors in friend's homes
• The study excludes women's shelters, immigrant accommodation, and penal institutions -The Dutch study compares methods: i.e., link tracing, indirect estimations, single-contact censuses, and capture-recapture methods
  • CRC is cost-effective,replicable & reliable
  • Required national population registers of sufficient quality and the possibility to uniquely identify people with various homogenities -Main Variants Of CRC Applications are; two- independent observations of the study population in own environment -The Unobserved Population is calculate using the ratio between people observed once to the ones observed twice
    • By selecting more registers with people in the population and estimating the people in none the study results said males/people with non-western backgrounds overrepresented also place of living strongly differentiates

Historical Population Estimates

• Guinnane 2021: estimates made by MJ may base population figures on economy rather than the other way around
• MJ's figures might reflect views on population density consistent with the economy rather than a particular country's population a the time MJ could be reflecting his views regarding wealth a country is supposed to have, rather then estimating it without any constraints
• The author is suggesting that economists to consult original sources instead of blindly using datasets
• Demographic Data Collection Thru Census (Picture Of Population ) is most important and best
• It counts ever person in an area on one certain day and periodic so 10 years is the UN rec
• Law mandates Compulsory Participation in censuses
• its Extremely Expensive to map households mobilize, questionnaires and census and dessimating that data to the public

Spanish Censuses

• Regular Census happened since 1857 which is spanish populations and housing census completed by Questionnaire and the info is used per EU law code Census Samples includes name/race/education household etc
• US Regularly Does Census Link to the Constitution

Modern Uses of Census Data

• Modern, based on admin data such Agency Sources and municipally collect data + taxes is more important
• Limited Data is Collected in the Form of ID data name and degrees and DOB, and where they were a citizen Netherland is a Pioneer For Virtual Census with data from Stat Offices with Works well in developed countries (Homeless and Low Level workers) and since its all online cheap Census
• Vital Registration Is A Flow Data registrar Birth Marriage divorce Adoption (work well with many developed countries bc of records ) Inter-censual calculus Uses Census Balance Equation = births minus death plus inn and out coming migrants with Errors in census bc Homeless Illegal immigrants

Bias in Sampling Data

• Content is inaccurate/not the population when asked in data like age
• Other Data Source use Survey with some part of it given out depending on Stat Office or agency

Estimating Population and the Lexis Diagram

• Population estimated by recapture method on how children develop in birth history that must be cross checkable from historic data

Direct standard,adjust crude rates for effect in composition

• need be comparable and can use one rate by applying it on existing population
• To use death rate to do death

Life Table Uses deaths rates and mortality at age to get "Life expectancy" over time

• Also used with 100 and calculating till dead showing the rate of dying is
• Life Expectancy Is Based ON Death Rates to show the average age people die to day

Mortality and the Determinants of Morality

• Cutler Studies this examining declines thru countries and status and life+Health

Some Main Determinants are;

the Decline in diseases/Nutrition and sanitation via water/ sanitation and vaccinations

• Economic Value and wealth with limited value

Thesis And World Health

• Colgrove on the Thesis saying Improvements Were social or nutrition

There are main stages;

1. decline in disease with life growing but limited
2. The improved life due to sanitation and food to make people well but hard
3. Then medicene help people live longer with a need for improvement still!

V Health and Mortality and Measure for mortality indicator;

• Decline thru time, measured using crude standards over period + by using heath and mor/lat/atity data via heights/weigh /BMI or Nutrition GDP etc

Historical Perspectives and Life Expectancy

• the World had little progress until life went down pre 1812
• Now 90% live till old age (mortality from war/sanitation and other forces made it hard back in the day!) and mortality varies because of food/etc
• Health varies from aid/econ Child mortality and what they got better thanks to Health reform/Sanitations advances and better nutrition ( better healthcare and knowledge etc) and transitions changed cause no many deaths and disease is for the elderly
• All thanks to knowledge and science now better living etc to fight causes! and expect the progress to rise from educatuon race to to make health a bigger thing too!

Mortality Issues and Measures in Populations

• 1 Dalay year because of disablitues and more cause that is lost bc people lived for shorter too! and to improve heath to improve quality of Life

Fertility is Sub-saharan Africa different? and Demography:

• SSA Has Higher Feritiyl in the Early demographic as farm helpers and lack of medicine causes limited urbanation
• High 5 and need decrease but policies are limited

• it is related via long rates

Determinant Theories and World Wide

• There are limited resources and must do what can improve quality for people
• Guinnane says a main problem is the economical side causes the fertity instead of the economical side cause this +There also an Fertility shifts overtime
• Shift from only limited control by mom due to a shift on "By Fate"

Fertility, People and Birth

Fertility is by the realized number (with less infertility and many things too) ,not by genetics that are the main causes The World Saw declines because births were made less It's mostly been a long decline but there is no set of data

The World Also Seen A Rate Decreases that Were High

The Cause Fertility Declines

involves multiple facts that go against the trend ! and many theories to make those things in order

• This theory show has society Modern so decrease Fertility Families adapted what could increase what in the lives and that gave the people ability to improve fertility now (But Cultural takes time) Theories; Cost/Benefit Models (Easterlin 1975) from factors like Quantity-Quality Trade-Off Theory (Becker 1960, Schultz 1973), with micros that have both a economical and change for idea

Migration and the theory

Migration is with the flow with many of the issues is from outside like war (but its legal that mostly caused the problem) to improve life ! to improve all! Migration causes Both what happened plus the problems depending on incorporation that caused everything to not have issues! and more knowledge (but skills are the problem). and there are more migrations in areas where more are there

• This caused a drain on areas so that can cause problems. In fact has immigration improves or harms,