ECON 266: Bivariate OLS and Unbiasedness

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Questions and Answers

In the context of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation, which statement best describes the implication of the exogeneity condition being satisfied?

  • The independent variable is correlated with the error term, indicating a violation of the OLS assumptions.
  • The expected value of the error term, conditional on the independent variable, is non-zero, leading to biased estimators.
  • The covariance between the independent variable and the error term is zero, ensuring that the OLS estimator is unbiased. (correct)
  • The variance of the error term is constant across all levels of the independent variable, allowing for efficient estimation.

How does increasing the sample size (N) and variance of the independent variable (var(X)) affect the variance of the OLS estimator $b_1$, assuming other factors remain constant?

  • Increasing both N and var(X) decreases the variance of $b_1$. (correct)
  • Increasing N increases the variance, while increasing var(X) decreases the variance of $b_1$.
  • Increasing N decreases the variance, while increasing var(X) increases the variance of $b_1$.
  • Increasing both N and var(X) increases the variance of $b_1$.

Within the framework of OLS regression, what impact does the condition of homoskedasticity truly have on the properties of the estimator?

  • Homoskedasticity ensures consistent and unbiased estimation of parameters, even in the presence of heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors.
  • Homoskedasticity allows for the application of Generalized Least Squares (GLS) to obtain more efficient parameter estimates than OLS.
  • Homoskedasticity is a sufficient condition to ensure the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) property of the OLS estimator, conditional on the other Gauss-Markov assumptions being met. (correct)
  • Homoskedasticity, in conjunction with a large sample size, mitigates the need for robust standard errors, regardless of the level of autocorrelation.

What is the precise interpretation of the probability limit ('plim') in the context of the consistency of an estimator, such as the OLS estimator $b_1$?

<p>The 'plim' of an estimator represents the value to which the estimator converges in probability as the sample size approaches infinity, indicating its asymptotic behavior. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a bivariate OLS regression, how does the presence of autocorrelation in the error term affect the properties of the OLS estimator $b_1$?

<p>Autocorrelation results in consistent but inefficient estimates, and the standard errors are unreliable, leading to incorrect statistical inferences. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given an OLS regression model, under what conditions should one prioritize addressing heteroskedasticity over autocorrelation when both are detected in the residuals?

<p>When using cross-sectional data with potential group-specific effects, as heteroskedasticity is more likely to be a significant issue. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of assessing the 'Goodness of Fit' in an OLS regression model, which technique offers the most nuanced understanding of the model's predictive power, beyond simply considering the $R^2$?

<p>Analyzing the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) in conjunction with a scatter plot of predicted versus actual values. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How do outliers impact the OLS estimation, and under which specific condition is their effect most pronounced, necessitating particularly vigilant detection and handling?

<p>Outliers disproportionately influence the OLS estimator when the sample size is small, potentially skewing the regression line and leading to misleading inferences. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider an OLS regression where the residuals exhibit a clustering pattern. What is the most accurate characterization of the consequence of this clustering?

<p>The clustering implies the violation of the assumption that errors are uncorrelated, potentially invalidating standard error estimates and statistical inferences. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What conditions must be met to ensure the variance of $b_1$ for OLS is as expected?

<p>Homoskedasticity and uncorrelated errors. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Within the context of OLS assumptions, what scenario could lead to a violation of the assumption of uncorrelated errors, thereby compromising the validity of statistical inference?

<p>The existence of spatial autocorrelation, where the error terms of neighboring observations are correlated. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the framework of OLS regression, if one observes that, conditional on X, $E[\epsilon | X] \neq 0$, how does this affect the OLS estimator, and what is the most appropriate course of action?

<p>This violates the exogeneity assumption, leading to inconsistent estimators; instrumental variable estimation or GMM may be appropriate. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a scenario in which you are performing OLS on a dataset and discover that the true model is $y = x^2 + \epsilon$, but you estimate $y = x + \epsilon$. What problem is present and what is its consequence for interpreting $b_1$?

<p>Omitted Variable Bias; the estimated $b_1$ is biased and does not represent the true effect of x on y. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Under what specific circumstance is applying a variance stabilizing transformation theoretically justified to achieve more efficient OLS estimation?

<p>When the variance of the error term is a function of the mean of the dependent variable. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of OLS regression, what is the most precise definition of 'consistency' of an estimator, such as $b_1$?

<p>Consistency implies that as the sample size approaches infinity, the estimator converges in probability to the true population parameter. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If the primary objective is to obtain unbiased estimates of the coefficients in a linear regression model, what assumption should be prioritized above all others?

<p>The assumption that the conditional mean of the error term is zero, reflecting exogeneity. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose you estimate a linear regression and suspect the presence of heteroskedasticity. What impact does heteroskedasticity have on the OLS estimator and what is an effective strategy for obtaining valid statistical inferences given this problem?

<p>Heteroskedasticity does not affect the coefficient estimates but invalidates the standard errors; using heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors provides correct statistical inferences. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How can a researcher effectively discern whether high leverage points or influential outliers pose a greater threat to the validity of an OLS regression model?

<p>By assessing both the hat values and the studentized residuals, focusing particularly on observations with high hat values and large residuals. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If one suspects that their OLS regression suffers from omitted variable bias, under what specific condition can simply adding the omitted variable to the model not resolve the problem?

<p>When the omitted variable is endogenous and correlated with the error term, introducing simultaneity bias. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

A researcher finds that the Durbin-Watson statistic in their OLS regression is very close to 0. What is the most precise interpretation of this result, and what are the immediate consequences for the validity of their model?

<p>This indicates strong positive autocorrelation, implying the OLS standard errors are underestimated, making statistical tests unreliable. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Under what precise conditions would one choose Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) over Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) for estimating a linear regression model?

<p>When heteroskedasticity is suspected and the form of heteroskedasticity is known except for some parameters, which can be estimated from the data. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of assessing potential multicollinearity in a multiple regression model, what threshold for Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) generally signals substantial multicollinearity warranting remedial action?

<p>VIF values exceeding 10, unequivocally necessitating immediate corrective measures to ensure a stable, well-behaved regression model. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider the scenario where an econometrician is modeling the daily sales of ice cream as a function of temperature and finds a significant outlier observation corresponding to a day with an unusually high number of sales due to a local festival. Which approach should be prioritized?

<p>Include a dummy variable corresponding to the day of high sales to capture the effect of the temporary festival. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a time series regression, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test yields a test statistic that is less (more negative) than the critical value at a 5% significance level. Without detrending, what conclusion can be accurately drawn from this result?

<p>The null hypothesis of non-stationarity can be rejected, indicating the time series is stationary around a deterministic trend. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of hypothesis testing in OLS regression, what is the best way to interpret the statement 'If $\beta_1 = 0$, the probability of observing values of $b_1$ that are closer to zero is high while the probability of obtaining values very different from zero is low'?

<p>Under the null hypothesis that the true coefficient is zero, observing a statistically significant estimated cofficient leads to the rejection of the null hypothesis. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

b₁ Estimate

The b₁ estimates of the true β₁ that the OLS process yields.

Unbiased Estimator

b₁ is an unbiased estimator of β₁ when the exogeneity condition is satisfied.

Precision in OLS

Want out b₁ estimate of β₁ to be precise.

Variance of b₁ Formula

Variance of b₁ = σ² / (N * var(X)).

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What is 'k'?

The number of independent variables in a model. Captures how well actual values of Y are clustered around the line of best fit.

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Consistency of the b₁ Estimate

Consistency of b₁ estimates is when the distribution of b₁ estimates shrink to be closer to the true value, β₁, as N increases.

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Effect of Sample Size

As sample size increases, the likelihood of getting an estimate equal to the true parameter value also increases.

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Homoskedasticity

Spread of data is roughly equal across the range of the X variable.

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Heteroskedasticity

Variance of the error term changes across different values of X.

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Clustering

Knowing the error of one observation means you can predict the outcome of the variable for another member of that cluster.

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Autocorrelation

Values of variables like GDP or iflation don't drastically change from period to period.

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Goodness of Fit

How well a model fits the data.

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Outliers

Potential to skew analysis.

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Hypothesis testing

The process of translating estimates obtained through OLS into statements about probability

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Study Notes

  • ECON 266: Introduction to Econometrics
  • Promise Kamanga, Hamilton College, 02/11/2025

Bivariate OLS

  • Examines relationships between two variables, one dependent and one independent

Unbiasedness of the b₁ Estimate

  • The estimate b₁ of the true β₁ derived from the OLS process is given by b₁ = β1 + cov(X,ε) / var(X)
  • b₁ is an unbiased estimator of B₁ when the exogeneity condition is satisfied
  • Exogeneity condition, cov(Χ, ε) = 0, or in other words, corr(X, ε) = 0

Precision of the b₁ Estimate

  • Aims for the b₁ estimate of B₁ to be precise in addition to being unbiased
  • The variance measures the precision of b₁
  • Any random variable, like b₁, has its mean and variance characterizing it among other parameters
  • The smaller the variance, the more precise b₁ is
  • The expression for the variance of b₁ is given by var(b₁) = ô²/ N × var(X)
  • N represents sample size
  • The variance of the regression (ô²) measures how well variation in Y is explained by the fitted line (Ý;)
  • ô² = Σ(Υ; - Ý;)²/N-k
  • k captures the number of independent variables in a model, including the constant
  • It captures how well actual values of Y are clustered around the line of best fit
  • The square root of the variance is the standard error of b₁
  • Standard errors are measured on the same scale as the independent variable.

Consistency of the b₁ Estimate

  • OLS is a consistent estimator if the distribution of b₁ estimates shrink to be closer to the true value, B₁, as N (sample size) increases
  • Likelihood/probability of getting an estimate equal to the true parameter value increases as the sample size increases: plim b₁ = β1
  • When the exogeneity condition is satisfied, OLS estimates of β are consistent

Conditions for the Precision of the b₁ Estimate

  • Conditions for the variance of b₁ to be valid: homoskedasticity and uncorrelated errors

Homoskedasticity

  • Homoskedasticity means the spread of the data is roughly equal across the range of the X variable
  • The variance of the error term is the same for low values of X as for high values of X
  • The counterpart to homoskedasticity is heteroskedasticity
  • In heteroskedasticity, the variance of the error term changes across different values of X

Errors Uncorrelated with Each Other

  • In addition to being homoskedastic, appropriate variance requires errors that are not correlated with each other
  • Two common situations where errors are correlated:
    • Clustering: Knowing the value of Y for one observation in a cluster makes predicting the outcome variable (Y) for another member of the cluster more likely
    • Autocorrelation: Common in time series data
      • Values of variables like GDP growth rate or inflation do not change drastically from period to period
      • Knowing one observation makes reasonably predicting the values of nearby observations easy

Goodness of Fit

  • How well a model fits the data
  • Defined by how close the values of Y are to the fitted line
  • If a model fits the data well, knowing X gives a good idea of what Y will be
  • Ways to characterize the goodness of fit of a model:
    • Scatter plot with a fitted line
    • Standard error of the regression, ô (Root MSE in a Stata output)
  • It is important not to put too much stock in goodness of fit

Outliers

  • Analyzing data may require dealing with outliers
  • A single outlier can skew the analysis and is a bigger issue when the sample size is small
  • Plotting the data is an excellent way to identify potentially influential observations
  • For problematic outliers:
    • Run the analysis with and without outlier observations
    • If results change, explain the situation and justify including/excluding the outlier

Hypothesis Testing: Introduction

  • Begins with outlining a model of interest and aims to establish causality
  • OLS estimates the parameters of the model
  • Hypothesis testing is assessing whether data is consistent with a claim
  • Translates estimates obtained through the OLS process into statements about probability
  • Interest lies in QSR facilitated study group (qsr_i) impact on grades (grades_i)
  • Steps include outlining the OLS model and writing down the equation for its fitted value
  • The hypothesis test can be summarized as follows:
    • If the initial claim/belief is that β₁ = 0, what is the probability of observing b₁?
    • If β₁ = 0, the probability of observing b₁ values closer to zero is high, while the probability of very different values is low

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