Bivariate OLS in Econometrics

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Questions and Answers

In the context of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation, if the long-run average of a random variable is consistently greater than its realized values, what econometric property is most directly challenged?

  • Efficiency, as the estimator's variance is minimized.
  • Consistency, as the estimator converges in probability to a value other than the true parameter.
  • Unbiasedness, as the estimator systematically deviates from the true parameter. (correct)
  • Asymptotic Normality, as the estimator's distribution becomes non-normal in large samples.

Consider a bivariate regression model $Y_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1X_i + \epsilon_i$. If $E[\epsilon_i | X_i] \neq 0$, which of the following statements most accurately describes the consequence for the OLS estimator $\hat{\beta}_1$?

  • $\hat{\beta}_1$ is unbiased, but its variance is inflated.
  • $\hat{\beta}_1$ remains the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE).
  • $\hat{\beta}_1$ is biased and inconsistent due to endogeneity. (correct)
  • $\hat{\beta}_1$ is consistent, but requires a larger sample size to achieve the same level of precision.

Suppose that in a bivariate regression, the true parameter $\beta_1$ is known to be 0, but the estimated coefficient $b_1$ from an OLS regression is consistently non-zero across repeated samples. What inferential pitfall is MOST likely contaminating the analysis?

  • Heteroscedasticity, leading to inefficient but unbiased estimates.
  • Omitted Variable Bias, where a relevant variable correlated with both X and Y is excluded. (correct)
  • Multicollinearity, artificially inflating the variance of $b_1$.
  • Measurement Error in the dependent variable, attenuating the estimate towards zero.

Given a bivariate OLS regression $Y_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1X_i + \epsilon_i$, and assuming that $Cov(X, \epsilon) \neq 0$, what adjustment can be implemented to address the bias in the OLS estimator while maintaining efficiency, if the source of endogeneity is known and measurable?

<p>Implement an Instrumental Variables (IV) regression using a valid instrument Z. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a scenario where $Cov(X, \epsilon) \neq 0$ in a bivariate regression. What is the fundamental statistical implication regarding the error term and its influence on the OLS estimates?

<p>The error term is correlated with the independent variable, inducing bias in the OLS estimator. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the equation $E(\beta) = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^{N}\beta = \beta$, what econometric principle does this relationship primarily illustrate?

<p>Linearity of Expectations, showing that the expectation of a constant is the constant itself. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If $E(XY) = E(X)E(Y)$, what fundamental statistical condition MUST hold between the random variables X and Y?

<p>X and Y must be independent. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of bivariate OLS regression, what is the implication of the statement: 'OLS does not automatically produce unbiased coefficient estimates'?

<p>The assumptions of OLS are violated, leading to potential bias in the estimates. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given that $Y_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1X_i + \epsilon_i$, which condition must the error term fulfill for OLS to yield unbiased estimates of $\beta_1$?

<p>The error term must be uncorrelated with the independent variable $X_i$. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In a bivariate regression, if a researcher concludes that b₁ ≠ β₁, what can be definitively inferred about b₁?

<p><code>b₁</code> may be a biased estimator of <code>β₁</code>, but not necessarily. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Within the context of expectation in econometrics, what is the fundamental relevance of expectation in establishing causality using regression models?

<p>Expectation allows us to determine if our b estimates equal the true β parameters through repeated sampling. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How would you interpret the econometric implication if it's determined that exogeneity condition has been violated?

<p>Something in the error term contaminates the observed relationship between X and Y. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If it can be proven or found that the error term is correlated with the independent variables, what best describes the effect on the nature of the association between the two?

<p>The association between the two is spurious and not causal. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given the formula for the estimated coefficient $b_1 = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{N}(X_i - \bar{X})(Y_i - \bar{Y})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N}(X_i - \bar{X})^2}$, what is the necessary condition for ensuring that $b_1$ accurately reflects the causal effect of $X$ on $Y$?

<p>The error term must be uncorrelated with $X$ to prevent endogeneity bias. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If we start with the standard bivariate regression model $Y_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1X_i + \epsilon_i$, and derive that $\bar{Y} = \beta_0 + \beta_1\bar{X} + \bar{\epsilon}$, which assumption MUST be valid to ensure that $\bar{\epsilon}$ converges to zero as N increases?

<p>The Law of Large Numbers applies to $\epsilon_i$. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Given the derived expression $b_1 = \beta_1 + \frac{\sum_i (X_i - \bar{X})(\epsilon_i - \bar{\epsilon})}{\sum_i (X_i - \bar{X})^2}$, under what specific condition will $b_1$ be an unbiased estimator of $\beta_1$?

<p>When the covariance between X and the error term \epsilon is zero. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

If a regression yields $E[b_1] = \beta_1 + \frac{Cov(X, \epsilon)}{Var(X)}$, what action can be taken to eliminate bias in the estimate of $\beta_1$ in a real-world scenario where $Cov(X, \epsilon) \neq 0$ and a valid instrument is unavailable.

<p>Examine and address the potential sources of correlation between X and \epsilon to mitigate, if not eliminate, their covariance. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a bivariate OLS model. What is the most accurate interpretation if it's found where $Cov(X, ε)$ is nonzero?

<p>Then we have bias. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of mitigating endogeneity bias, if you find that $Cov(X, \epsilon)$ isn't zero, what technique could you employ if IV regression isn't a valid or ideal choice?

<p>The best approach would be to investigate the potential sources of correlation between X and \epsilon to reduce their covariance. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Let's say we find that b₁ estimates of β₁ can be normally distributed when the sample is sufficiently large. What is assumed?

<p>Assumes the Central Limit Theorem. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

When analyzing the biasedness and unbiasedness of our estimated coefficient ($b_1$), what type of models is most crucial?

<p>Bivariate Model. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the formula for determining the Y; of a dataset given what you know about the bivariate model?

<p>Y; = β₀ + β₁X; + ε; (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

OLS estimates

The OLS process yields estimates (b₁) of the true population parameter (β₁).

Distribution of b₁ estimates

According to the central limit theorem, with a sufficiently large sample size, the distribution of b₁ estimates will be normally distributed around the true β₁.

Expectation

In econometrics, expectation refers to the long-run average of a random variable.

Relevance of expectation

The true population parameters (β) represent long-run averages that we aim to estimate accurately.

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Linearity of Expectation

When dealing with random variables X and Y, the expectation of their sum is is E[X] + E[Y].

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Expectation of a Constant

The expectation of a constant (β) is simply the constant itself.

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Expectation of Constant Times Variable

The expectation of a constant (β) times a random variable (X) is the product of the constant and the expectation of the random variable: E[βX] = βE[X].

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Expectation of Independent Variables

For independent variables X and Y, the expectation of their product is the product of their expectations: E[XY] = E[X]E[Y].

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Expectation in Bivariate Models

In bivariate models, the concept of expectation is crucial when assessing if our estimator is biased or unbiased.

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True or False: b₁ = β₁

In general, the estimated coefficient (b₁) from OLS is not necessarily equal to the true population parameter (β₁).

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Is b₁ ≠ β₁ always bias?

Having b₁ ≠ β₁ does not necessarily mean that b₁ is a biased estimator.

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Unbiased Estimator

An OLS estimate is unbiased if the average value of the b₁ distribution is equal to the true value β₁.

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OLS and Unbiasedness

OLS does not automatically guarantee unbiased coefficient estimates.

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Error Term Condition

The error term must not be correlated with the independent variable

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Exogeneity Violation

Violation of the exogeneity condition results in the error term contaminating the observed relationship between X and Y.

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Endogeneity Condition

Endogeneity implies Cov(X, ε) ≠ 0, meaning X and the error term are correlated.

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Magnitude of Bias

The bias in b₁ increases with the degree of correlation between X and the error term.

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Condition for Bias

We have bias when Cov(X, ε) ≠ 0; the covariance between the independent variable and the error term is not zero.

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Study Notes

  • This lecture introduces Bivariate OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) in Econometrics

Distributions of b Estimates

  • The OLS process provides estimates (b₁) of the true parameter β₁
  • The Central Limit Theorem states that b₁ estimates of β₁ are normally distributed with a large sample size
  • A key question is what constitutes a "large sample"
  • Another question is what shape does the distribution of the b₁ estimates take?

Expectation of Random Variables

  • b₁ estimates of β₁ are normally distributed
  • The distribution of b₁ estimates is centered around the true β₁
  • Expectation in econometrics refers to the long-run average of a random variable
  • The concept of expectation is relevant to establishing causality, as interest lies in long-run averages (true β parameters)
  • Repeated sampling aims for b estimates to equal the true β parameters, making expectation crucial to OLS
  • Rules of expectation will follow after remembering the math concepts in sections A through E

Rules of Expectation

  • For random variables X and Y, and a constant β, the following rules apply:
  • Linearity: E(X + Y) = E[X] + E[Y]
  • Constant: E(β) = β
  • Constant times a random variable: E(βX) = βE[X]
  • For independent variables: E(XY) = E[X]E[Y]

Application of Expectation in OLS

  • A bivariate model is represented as Yᵢ = β₀ + β₁Xᵢ + εᵢ
  • Expectation is crucial in analysing the biasedness/unbiasedness of the estimated coefficient b₁

Endogeneity and Bias

  • Generally, b₁ = β₁ is false
  • b₁ ≠ β₁ does not necessarily make b₁ biased
  • The b₁ estimate is unbiased if the average value of the b₁ distribution equals the true value β₁
  • OLS does not automatically produce unbiased coefficient estimates
  • The error term must not be correlated with the independent variable
  • Exogeneity implies that the covariance of X and the error term (ε) is zero
  • Endogeneity should be avoided, as it implies that the covariance of X and ε is not zero
  • If the exogeneity condition is violated, something in the error term contaminates the relationship between X and Y
  • X correlates with/co-moves/covaries with the error term
  • The relationship between X and Y becomes spurious, not causal
  • The greater the correlation between X and the error term, the larger the bias
  • The expression for the b₁ estimate can show mathematically the condition for when it is biased
  • The model is defined as Yᵢ = β₀ + β₁Xᵢ + εᵢ
  • The estimated coefficient is b₁ = Σ(Xᵢ - X̄)(Yᵢ - Ȳ) / Σ(Xᵢ - X̄)²
  • Steps taken include plugging in for Yi and Ȳ, simplifying, and taking expectations
  • Substituting and simplifying leads to b₁ = β₁ + cov(X, ε) / var(X)
  • Bias exists when cov(X, ε) ≠ 0

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