ECON 266: Bivariate OLS Model

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Questions and Answers

Consider a bivariate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model expressed as $Y_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1X_i + \epsilon_i$. If you are presented with a dataset and told it perfectly explains the data, what specific characteristic defines the OLS estimates of the $\beta$ parameters in this scenario?

  • The OLS estimates are chosen to minimize the sum of absolute residuals, reflecting a preference for small errors over large ones.
  • They maximize the likelihood function, assuming a uniform distribution of the error term, which ensures the estimates are consistent.
  • The OLS estimates are selected such that the sum of squared residuals is minimized, providing the best fit in a least-squares sense. (correct)
  • They are guaranteed to be unbiased and efficient, irrespective of the underlying distribution of the error term.

In the context of deriving the OLS estimator for $\beta_1$ in a bivariate regression model ($Y_i = \beta_1X_i + \epsilon_i$), what is the most critical initial step after setting up the sum of squared residuals?

  • Perform a Cholesky decomposition on the sum of squared residuals to ensure convexity.
  • Compute the inverse of the Hessian matrix of the sum of squared residuals with respect to $\beta_1$.
  • Apply the Gauss-Markov theorem to prove that the OLS estimator is the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).
  • Take the partial derivative of the sum of squared residuals with respect to $\beta_1$ and set it equal to zero. (correct)

Given the final OLS estimator for $\beta_1$ in a simplified bivariate model (assuming no intercept) as $\hat{\beta}1 = \frac{\sum{i=1}^{N} Y_i X_i}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} X_i^2}$, under what specific condition does this estimator become inconsistent?

  • If the sample size N is small (e.g., N < 30), undermining the asymptotic properties of the OLS estimator.
  • If there is measurement error in the independent variable $X_i$, leading to correlation between $X_i$ and the error term. (correct)
  • If the error term $\epsilon_i$ exhibits heteroskedasticity, violating the assumptions of the Gauss-Markov theorem.
  • If a relevant variable is omitted, causing the $\epsilon_i$ to be correlated with $Y_i$.

In the context of Ordinary Least Squares, what is the theoretical justification for the approximate normality of the $b_1$ estimates in large samples, and under what specific condition might this approximation fail?

<p>The central limit theorem ensures asymptotic normality as the sample size increases, unless the underlying population distribution has infinite variance. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a scenario where you're estimating a bivariate regression model, and you suspect that the error term's variance is not constant. How would you assess and address the potential bias and efficiency issues in the OLS estimator of $b_1$?

<p>Use a Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimator with weights inversely proportional to the estimated variances, after conducting a Breusch-Pagan test to detect heteroskedasticity. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose you estimate a bivariate regression model and observe that the residuals exhibit a non-random pattern, suggesting autocorrelation. Evaluate the implications of this autocorrelation for the OLS estimator of $b_1$ and the validity of standard inference procedures.

<p>The OLS estimator is inefficient but still unbiased, and feasible GLS can be used to improve efficiency and correct standard errors. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of estimating the bivariate OLS model $Y_i = \beta_0 + \beta_1X_i + \epsilon_i$, what are the implications if the independent variable $X_i$ is endogenous, and what econometric techniques can be used to address this endogeneity?

<p>Endogeneity causes OLS estimates to be biased and inconsistent; instrumental variables (IV) regression or two-stage least squares (2SLS) can be used to obtain consistent estimates. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Imagine you are analyzing a large dataset, and after running an OLS regression, you suspect that the functional form of the relationship between $X$ and $Y$ is misspecified. What diagnostic tests and remedies would you employ to address this issue?

<p>Employ partial regression plots to visualize the relationships, use the Ramsey RESET test, and consider adding polynomial terms or splines to the model. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose an econometrician is using OLS to estimate the effect of education ($X$) on income ($Y$) but is concerned about omitted variable bias due to unobserved ability. What specific econometric technique could be used to mitigate this bias, and under what assumptions would this technique be valid?

<p>Instrumental variables (IV) regression, using a valid instrument that affects education but is uncorrelated with ability. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which of the following statements precisely describes the implications of sampling randomness and modeled randomness on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator $b_1$ in a bivariate regression?

<p>Sampling randomness and modeled randomness both contribute to the variance of $b_1$, with sampling randomness linked to the specific observations included and modeled randomness derived from the error term's distribution. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of distributions of $b$ estimates, how does an increase in the sample size affect the distribution, and what specific theorem underpins this change?

<p>The distribution approaches a normal distribution with smaller variance, attributed to the central limit theorem. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the context of econometrics, differentiate between a discrete and a continuous random variable, providing examples of their application in regression analysis.

<p>A discrete random variable can only take on a finite number of values, while a continuous random variable can take on infinitely many values within a given range; e.g., employment status (employed/unemployed) vs. temperature. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Consider a scenario where multiple linear regression has confirmed multicollinearity among several independent variables. Evaluate the most effective strategy for mitigating the adverse effects of multicollinearity on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates.

<p>Drop one or more of the highly correlated variables or combine them into a single composite variable; alternatively, use regularization techniques such as ridge regression to shrink the coefficients. (B)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Suppose you are estimating a regression model and suspect that your residuals are not normally distributed. Assess the consequences of non-normal residuals on the properties of the OLS estimator and outline strategies to address this issue.

<p>Non-normality affects the efficiency of the OLS estimator and invalidates standard hypothesis tests; remedies include bootstrapping or using robust standard errors and transformations of variables. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

You are analyzing a dataset with a binary dependent variable and considering whether to use a linear probability model (LPM) or a probit model for estimation. Evaluate the key differences between these models, particularly regarding the interpretation of coefficients and the potential drawbacks of each.

<p>The LPM directly estimates the change in the probability of the outcome given a unit change in the predictor, but it can produce predicted probabilities outside the [0, 1] range; the probit model ensures probabilities between 0 and 1 using a cumulative distribution function, but the coefficients do not have a direct linear interpretation. (A)</p> Signup and view all the answers

An econometrician is using time series data to model the relationship between two variables and suspects the presence of a unit root in one or more series. How does the presence of a unit root affect the properties of OLS estimators, and what are the appropriate steps to address this issue?

<p>The presence of a unit root leads to spurious regressions and invalid inferences; the appropriate steps are to difference the series until they are stationary and then use cointegration techniques if the original series are cointegrated. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Considering a complex econometric model with several endogenous variables, which estimation technique is most appropriate for simultaneously addressing endogeneity and identifying causal effects, and what identifying assumptions must be satisfied?

<p>Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), provided that valid and relevant instruments exist for each endogenous variable, and the exclusion restriction holds. (D)</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are the key advantages and disadvantages of using panel data estimation techniques compared to cross-sectional or time-series methods, particularly concerning controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and addressing endogeneity?

<p>Panel data's primary advantage lies in its ability to control for unobserved heterogeneity that is constant over time using fixed effects, and it can address endogeneity by using lagged values as instruments, although it requires more complex data structures. (C)</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

What do parameters β₀ and β₁ do?

Summarizes how X is related to Y for the entire population in a bivariate model.

What does OLS identify?

Values of bo and b₁ that define the line that minimizes the sum of squared residuals.

Line of best fit formula

Ŷᵢ = b₀ + b₁Xᵢ

Residual formula

êᵢ = Yᵢ - Ŷᵢ

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Sum of squared residuals formula

∑ᵢ=₁N êᵢ² = ∑ᵢ=₁N (Yᵢ - Ŷᵢ)²

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Constant formula

b₀ = Ȳ - b₁X̄

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Estimated coefficient formula

b₁ = ∑ᵢ=₁N (Xᵢ-X̄) (Yᵢ-Ȳ) / ∑ᵢ=₁N (Xᵢ-X̄)²

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Steps to derive b₁

Writing down the expression for the sum of squared residuals, taking the derivative with respect to b₁, and solving for b₁.

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Sources of random variation of b₁

The source of random variation of b₁ that can be thought of in two ways: sampling randomness and modeled randomness.

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Sampling randomness

Differences in sample compositions that will likely lead to different estimated coefficients.

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Modeled randomness

Values of Yᵢ are subject to randomness that goes into the error term.

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Distribution of b₁ Estimates

Much as b₁ estimates of β₁ are random, they have a distribution.

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Discrete random variables

Can only take on a finite number of values or a countable number of values.

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Continuous random variables

Can take on infinitely many possible values within a given range.

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Probability density

Describes the relative probability that a random variable is near a specified value for the range of possible outcome for the random variable

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Normality of b₁ for large samples

For large samples, b₁ estimates of β₁ are normally distributed random variables.

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Central limit theorem

The average of any random variable follows a normal distribution.

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Relevance of central limit theorem

Relevant for OLS because b₁ is essentially a weighted sum of Yᵢ.

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Study Notes

  • ECON 266: Introduction to Econometrics, presented by Promise Kamanga from Hamilton College on 02/04/2025, introduces Bivariate OLS and related concepts

Bivariate OLS Model

  • Parameters β₀ and β₁ in a bivariate model show how X relates to Y across an entire population
  • Model parameters are usually unknown but can be estimated
  • Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) provides estimates of the beta parameters that best fit a given dataset

OLS Estimation Strategy

  • OLS finds estimates b₀ and b₁ that define a line minimizing the sum of squared residuals
  • Line of best fit: Ŷᵢ = b₀ + b₁Xᵢ
  • Residual: Ɛ̂ᵢ = Yᵢ - Ŷᵢ
  • Sum of squared residuals: Σ(Ɛ̂ᵢ)² = Σ(Yᵢ - Ŷᵢ)²
  • Constant: b₀ = Ȳ - b₁X̄
  • Estimated coefficient: b₁ = Σ(Xᵢ - X̄)(Yᵢ - Ȳ) / Σ(Xᵢ - X̄)²

Deriving the Equation for b₁

  • Deriving illustrates how ordinary the method of OLS is for b₁ estimate of β₁ with a modified model: Yᵢ = β₁Xᵢ + εᵢ
  • The steps to derive b₁
  • Write the expression for the sum of squared residuals
  • Take the derivative regarding b₁
  • Solve for b₁

Steps to Derive the b₁ Estimate

  • Write down the predicted value / line of best fit
  • Write down the expression for the residuals
  • Square the residuals and sum them up
  • Take the derivative with respect to b₁
  • Solve for b₁

Random Variation of Coefficient Estimates

  • In a basic model Yᵢ = β₀ + β₁Xᵢ + εᵢ , β₁ is of primary interest
  • b₁ estimates of β₁ will have a random element because the data is random
  • Random variation of b₁ is from:
  • Sampling randomness: Sample differences lead to different estimated coefficients
  • Modeled randomness: Yᵢ values are subject to error term randomness, even with full population data

Sampling and Model Randomness

  • Using the Income = β₀ + β₁Schoolingᵢ + εᵢ where
  • Sampling randomness, sample make up differences affect estimated coefficients
  • Modeled randomness, Yi values are random due to error term randomness; this is true even when full population data is observed

Distributions of b Estimates

  • b₁ estimates of β₁ are random and have a distribution
  • Values fall within a range and have associated relative probabilities
  • Erroneous values like negative income are ruled out

Distributions of Random Variables: Discrete

  • Discrete random variables have a limited or countable number of values:
  • Coin toss: T = {H, T}
  • Six-sided die: D = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
  • Each potential outcome has a probability distribution:
  • P(T) = {½, ½}
  • P(D) = {⅙, ⅙, ⅙, ⅙, ⅙, ⅙}

Distributions of Random Variables: Continuous

  • Continuous random variables can take on infinitely many possible values within a given range
  • Probability of a particular event for such variables is zero
  • Probability density describes the relative probability that a random variable is near some value

Central Limit Theorem

  • For large samples, b₁ estimates of β₁ are normally distributed random variables
  • Normality of b₁ arises from the central limit theorem
  • The average of any random variable follows a normal distribution
  • Central limit theorem is applicable for OLS

Relevance of Central Limit Theorem

  • The central limit theorem is relevant for OLS since b₁ is essentially a weighted sum of Yᵢ
  • Expect b₁ estimates from repeated sampling to follow a normal bell curve
  • 100 observations means that the central limit theorem kicks in

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