Decision Making Process for Facility Construction
30 Questions
0 Views

Choose a study mode

Play Quiz
Study Flashcards
Spaced Repetition
Chat to Lesson

Podcast

Play an AI-generated podcast conversation about this lesson

Questions and Answers

What is the decision rule used to evaluate alternatives under uncertainty?

Maximin

In the decision problem under certainty, what is the best choice if future demand will be low?

Build a small facility

What is the payoff for the large facility if future demand is high?

800

Which alternative is dominated in the decision-making process under certainty?

<p>Do nothing</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is Maximax in decision-making under uncertainty?

<p>Maximax</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the worst payoff for the small facility under the Maximin criteria?

<p>200</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of using the expected value decision rule in capacity planning?

<p>To choose the alternative with the best expected value, which is the highest for profits and lowest for costs.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is the maximum regret calculated in decision making?

<p>By finding the worst regret for each alternative and selecting the maximum value.</p> Signup and view all the answers

In the provided example, why is the large facility chosen to minimize maximum regret?

<p>The biggest regret is associated with having only a small facility and high demand.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the expected value for the small facility when the probability of small demand is 0.4 and large demand is 0.6?

<p>242</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is the best alternative determined using the expected value decision rule?

<p>By selecting the alternative with the highest expected value.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which alternative is considered the best in the provided example when probabilities of small and large demand are known?

<p>Large facility</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the formula for calculating forecast error for a period t?

<p>et = Actual Demand - Forecast Demand = At - Ft</p> Signup and view all the answers

Why is it important to use the correct formula for forecast error calculation?

<p>Using the correct formula ensures that negative errors do not cancel out positive errors, providing a more accurate interpretation of the net error.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of calculating Mean Absolute Deviation in forecasting errors?

<p>Mean Absolute Deviation helps in measuring the average magnitude of errors without considering their direction.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is Mean Squared Error useful in forecasting?

<p>Mean Squared Error quantifies the average of the squares of errors, giving higher weight to larger errors.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the significance of understanding different types of forecasting errors?

<p>Understanding different types of forecasting errors helps in selecting the most appropriate error calculation method based on the context and requirements.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Explain the concept of tracking signal in forecasting.

<p>Tracking signal is used to monitor the forecast errors over time, indicating when the forecast needs adjustment based on the accumulated errors.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What are the course meeting days and times for the lecture?

<p>Mon, Tue, Wed 12:30 – 1:30 pm</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the grade calculation policy for the course?

<p>30 (Minor)+ 40 (Major) +15 (Assignments) +15 (Quiz +CP)</p> Signup and view all the answers

How is attendance managed in the course?

<p>Attendance will be recorded in class. If below 75%, grade drops by one.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the textbook used for the course?

<p>Factory Physics, 2nd edition by WJ Hopp and ML Spearman</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the email policy for communication with the course coordinator and TA?

<p>All emails should be copied to both the course coordinator and TA, and subject line must start with 'MCL361'.</p> Signup and view all the answers

Who is the head teaching assistant for the course?

<p>Kumar Sarthak</p> Signup and view all the answers

Which step involves creating the frequency table?

<p>STEP 1 :CREATE THE FREQUENCY TABLE</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the purpose of forming the nucleus in Step 2?

<p>Identify the machine with the smallest non-zero frequency.</p> Signup and view all the answers

What action is taken in Step 3 to adjust the frequency matrix?

<p>Using the alter matrix, adjust the frequency matrix.</p> Signup and view all the answers

How many machines are listed in the frequency table?

<p>16</p> Signup and view all the answers

What does the additional column in the frequency table represent?

<p>Part 24 visits an extra machine</p> Signup and view all the answers

What is the implication of M/c 24 not being a subset of M/C 3?

<p>M/c 24 may not be a subset of M/C 3</p> Signup and view all the answers

Flashcards

Maximin

Decision rule used to choose the alternative with the smallest potential loss, assuming the worst-case scenario.

Build a small facility

The best choice when future demand is expected to be low, as it minimizes initial investment and potential losses.

Payoff for large facility with high demand

The profit generated by a large facility when future demand is high.

Dominated alternative in decision-making

An alternative that consistently performs worse than another alternative across all possible outcomes.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Maximax

A decision rule that selects the alternative with the highest potential payoff, assuming the best-case scenario.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Worst payoff for small facility under Maximin

The lowest profit a small facility can generate under the Maximin criteria, considering the worst-case demand scenario.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Purpose of expected value decision rule

To choose the alternative with the highest expected value, which corresponds to the most profitable or least costly option.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Maximum regret calculation

The difference between the best possible payoff and the actual payoff for each alternative under different demand scenarios.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Reason for choosing large facility to minimize regret

The large facility is chosen because the regret of having a small facility and high demand is significantly higher than the regret of having a large facility and low demand.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Expected value for small facility

The weighted average payoff of a small facility, calculated by multiplying the probability of each demand scenario with its corresponding payoff and summing the results.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Determining best alternative using expected value

By selecting the alternative with the highest expected value, calculated as the weighted average payoff across different demand scenarios.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Best alternative when demand probabilities are known

The large facility is considered the best option when probabilities of small and large demand are known, based on the expected value decision rule.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Formula for forecast error

The difference between actual demand and forecast demand for a specific period, calculated by subtracting forecast demand from actual demand.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Importance of using correct forecast error formula

Ensuring accurate interpretation of overall forecast error, as negative and positive errors do not cancel each other out, providing a true representation of the net error.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

A measure of the average absolute value of forecasting errors, providing an understanding of the average magnitude of errors without considering their direction.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

A measure that quantifies the average of the squares of forecast errors, giving more weight to larger errors.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Significance of understanding forecasting errors

Understanding different forecasting errors enables selecting the most suitable error calculation method based on the specific context and requirements.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Tracking signal

A measure used to monitor forecast errors over time, indicating when adjustments to the forecast are necessary based on the accumulated errors.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Course meeting days and times for the lecture

The schedule for the lecture sessions of the course.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Grade calculation policy

The breakdown of how grades are calculated in the course, including contributions from minor assignments, major assignments, quizzes, and class participation.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Attendance management policy

Attendance is tracked in class, and a penalty is imposed for attendance below 75% of the total sessions.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Textbook for the course

The recommended textbook for the course, providing a detailed and comprehensive resource for the subject matter.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Email policy for communication

All communication with the course coordinator and Teaching Assistant should be via email with the subject line starting with 'MCL361' and copied to both recipients.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Head teaching assistant

The name of the individual who serves as the head teaching assistant for the course.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Step 1: Creating the frequency table

The first step in the process involves creating a frequency table that summarizes the number of visits for each machine in the system.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Purpose of forming the nucleus

The purpose of forming the nucleus in Step 2 is to identify the machine with the smallest non-zero frequency, which serves as the starting point for the subsequent analysis.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Action taken in Step 3 to adjust the frequency matrix

In Step 3, the frequency matrix is adjusted using the alter matrix, a process that involves updating the frequencies to reflect the relationships between different machines.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Number of machines listed in the frequency table

The provided frequency table lists 16 machines, representing various units in the system.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Additional column in frequency table

The additional column in the frequency table represents a special case where part 24 visits an extra machine beyond its normal route.

Signup and view all the flashcards

Implication of M/c 24 not being a subset of M/C 3

The fact that machine 24 is not a subset of machine 3 implies that machine 24 may not be part of the same production line or group as machine 3, suggesting a potential independent operation.

Signup and view all the flashcards

More Like This

Performance Measures and Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA)
18 questions

Performance Measures and Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA)

LovingAlbuquerque avatar
LovingAlbuquerque
Intuitive Decision Making
10 questions

Intuitive Decision Making

UnderstandableFairy avatar
UnderstandableFairy
Decision Making Flashcards Chapter 5
9 questions

Decision Making Flashcards Chapter 5

GlisteningRadon avatar
GlisteningRadon
Decision-Making Fundamentals
15 questions

Decision-Making Fundamentals

EasygoingAgate6318 avatar
EasygoingAgate6318
Use Quizgecko on...
Browser
Open
Browser
Browser