6 Lectures on Hazard Assessment PDF

Hazard assessment, vulnerability analysis, risk assessment Rapid health assessment of Emergency situation Disaster Cycle Flood Volcano Tsunami Earth quack Definition of Hazards •Hazards are events or physical conditions that have the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damag...

Hazard assessment, vulnerability analysis, risk assessment Rapid health assessment of Emergency situation Disaster Cycle Flood Volcano Tsunami Earth quack Definition of Hazards •Hazards are events or physical conditions that have the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agriculture loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm or losses (FEMA,1997). 1. Natural Hazards : Physical and geographical factors. 2. Technological Hazards 3. Intentional Hazards. Economic, Industrial and sociopolitical Man Made Hazards Identification and hazard profiling •First step of disaster management. •It is important to know what hazards exist and where they exist. •To recognize those hazards that are most likely to occur and most devastating. •Must identify every factor i.e. geological, hydrological, biological, economic, technological, political, and social. •Past experience (hazard) that could be repeated in future must be identified. •The goal of hazard identification is to make a complete list of hazards to further analyze it . Hazard identification methods • Brainstorming: Creative process to make list of possible hazards using knowledge and process. • Research of the country’s disaster and emergency history : By searching news papers, governments records, internet, local society, community elders, public library. • Review of existing plans: By various types of government plans (Local to National).Local police, fire, transportation plan, dams plan, irrigation plan, etc. • Investigation of similar hazard identification efforts in neighboring countries. • Use of maps. • Interviews. • Site visit. Hazard Analysis/Profiling • Once a hazard has been identified, it must be further described for later use in risk analysis. • This descriptive process called hazard analysis or hazard profiling, allows to make more informed calculation of risk upon which actions are ultimately taken. Risk and Vulnerability Risk and Vulnerability • Risk is the likelihood of an event occurring multiplied by the consequence of that event, were it to occur. • RISK= LIKELIHOOD x CONSEQUENCES ( Ansell & Wharton, 1992). • Two components are Likelihood and Consequences. • Likelihood can be given as a probability or a frequency. • The consequences component of risk describes the effects of the risk on humans, built structure, and the environment. There are generally three factors examined while determining the consequences of a disaster: 1. Death/Fatalities 2. Human injuries 3. Damage ( Cost, reported in currency) Risk WHAT IS VULNERABILITY ? Vulnerability describes the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. There are many aspects of vulnerability, arising from various physical, social, economic, and environmental factors. Vulnerability • It is the characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard Factors of Vulnerability Demographic Factors Population Density Age of Population Distribution of Population Dealing with A;er - Effects Socio – economic Factors Insurance Cover Wealth Emergency Personnel Educa+on Aid Request Nature of Society Understanding of the area Community Preparedness Building codes Scien+fic monitoring and early warning system Communica+on networks Emergency Planning 4 types of Vulnerability Physical Vulnerability • Population density levels, remoteness of a settlement, the site design and materials used for critical infrastructure and for housing. Social Vulnerability • Inability of the people, organization and societies to withstand adverse impacts to hazards due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions and cultural values. Economic Vulnerability • The level of vulnerability is highly dependent upon the economics status of individuals, communities and nations. The poor are usually more vulnerable to disasters because they lack the resources to build sturdy structures and put other engineering measures in place to protect themselves from being negatively impacted by disaster. Environmental Vulnerability • Natural resources depletion and resource degradation are key aspects of environmental vulnerability Elements Exposed to Hazard Exposure refers to the element at risk from a natural or man – made hazard event. • Human beings; • Dwellings or households and communi+es; • Building structures; • Public facili+es and infrastructure assets; • Public transport system; • Agricultural commodi+es; and • Environmental assets Which type of vulnerability Risk Evaluation • To determine the relative seriousness of hazard risk for the country or community being assessed by disaster manager. • Risk evaluation begins after identification, description, mapping and analysis of hazards. • The purpose of evaluating risk is to determine that risk levels resulting from the risk analysis step reflect the relative seriousness of each risk. Risk Evaluation • Three tasks that are important to perform risk management process: • 1. Identify which risks require referral to other agencies. • 2. Identify which risks require treatment by the disaster risk management agency or office. • 3. Further evaluate risks to determine the accuracy of the final risk value assigned. Quantifying Vulnerability • It is used in es+ma+ng how much mi+ga+on and preparedness measures will be applied. • Based on data about the interes+ng of the previous hazard events and severity of their effects. • It can be expressed as: (1) – lowest degree of vulnerability (2) – highest degree People: Ra+o of casual+es / injured to the total popula+on Buildings: Expressed as a repair cost or degree of damage CONSEQUENCE • The consequence component of risk describes the effects of the risk on humans, built structures, and the environment. There are generally three factors examined when determining the consequences of a disaster: • 1. Deaths/fatalities (human) • 2. Injuries (human) • 3. Damages (cost) Two of the most common Consequences are Direct and Indirect effects (damages/losses), and tangible and intangible effects (damages/losses Triagram of Disaster Risk Earthquake Tsunami Floods Cyclones Bushfires Landslide s Volcanoe s Engineering Economic Social RISK Exposure People Buildings Business Infrastructure Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability Capacity Rapid health assessment of Emergency situation Hazard event, regardless of whether they turn into disaster, are emergencies. Emergencies occur in three phases, with different response activities applying to each: 1. Pre-hazard 2. The emergency: Hazard effect ongoing 3. The emergency: Hazard effects have ceased. Recognition-Pre disaster action 1. 2. 3. Warning and evacuation Pre-positioning of resources and supplies Last-minute mitigation and preparedness measures. Recognition-post disaster 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Search and rescue First Aid Evacuation Disaster Assessment Provision of water food and shelter Fatality management Sanitation Security Social Services Resumption of critical infrastructure