04 - Fish Stock Assessment.pdf

General Outline ▪ Fisheries Management in the Philippines Some definitions The Fish Stock Assessment Process Methodologies for Fish Stock Assessment The National Stock Assessment Program (NSAP) Objectives of the NSAP Data collection and storage ▪ NSAP data utilized in fisheries management ▪ Fu...

General Outline ▪ Fisheries Management in the Philippines Some definitions The Fish Stock Assessment Process Methodologies for Fish Stock Assessment The National Stock Assessment Program (NSAP) Objectives of the NSAP Data collection and storage ▪ NSAP data utilized in fisheries management ▪ Future NSAP work ▪ The Fisheries Management Areas (FMAs) ▪ The Fisheries Management Process and FMA bodies ▪ The next steps in Fisheries Management ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ ▪ Jurisdictions of Government Institutions municipal waters, prior consultation with FARMCs in enacting ordinances beyond municipal waters and commercial fisheries PAMB: NIPAS MPA (sub-FMA) [Sec. 5, FAO 263} Rule 3.1 Jurisdiction. The Department of Agriculture – Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (DA-BFAR), in cooperation with concerned national agencies, shall have the responsibility and jurisdiction in the management, conservation, development, protection, utilization, and disposition of all fisheries and aquatic resources of the country, and all Philippine flagged fishing vessels operating in areas governed by a Regional Fisheries Management Organization (RFMO), in the high seas, or in waters of other coastal states. In municipal waters, the DA-BFAR may coordinate with and assist the Local Government Units (LGUs), Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Management Councils (FARMCs), Integrated FARMCs (IFARMC), and other government agencies concerned in the development, conservation, protection, utilization and management of fisheries and aquatic resources. Fisheries Mgt in the Philippines: Timeline RA 7160 CRM Community based CRM with active role of NGOs 1970s Devolution of mandate to manage municipal waters to LGUs 1990s FAO Technical guidelines on ecosystem approach to fisheries 2003 2008 RA 8550 FOO 217 Philippine Fisheries Code of 1998 Integrated Fisheries Mgt Unit Baywide management RA 8435 Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Act of 1997 2011 2001 2014 2013 2013 Closed Seasons 2013 Enforced 4 Closed Seasons in the Visayan Sea, Davao Gulf (2014), Zamboanga Peninsula (2011) and Northeastern Palawan (2015) EO 533 Adopting Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) as a national strategy to ensure the sustainable development Fisheries Management in the Philippines: Timeline Nov 29 DEC 1 Feb 27 Mar 24 Apr 21 RA 10654 takes effect IUU, EAFM and FMAs 2014 FOO 164 Mainstreaming EAFM Yellow Card revoked 2015 NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR FISHERFOLK RESGISTRATION 2016 Fisheries Administrative Orders Consultations on draft FAOs on FMA, VMM and VMS, Regulation of Fishing Activities in Municipal Waters, etc 2017 Jumpstarting EAFM NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR BOAT AND GEAR RESGISTRATION LAW ENFORCEMENT TRAININGS Employment of additional 1,700 personnel for regulatory (including law enforcement), quarantine, fish inspection and monitoring functions of the BFAR ACQUISITION OF MCS VESSELS CONDUCT OF MONITORING, CONTROL AND SURVEILANCE NSAP – expanded data collection points from 173 to 739 MALINIS AT MASAGANANG KARAGATAN 2018 Fisheries Code of the Philippines RA 8550, as amended by RA 10654 adoption of precautionary principle, consistent with ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management - Sec. 2. f power of BFAR to enforce all laws, formulate and enforce all rules and regulations governing the conservation and management of fishery resources - Sec. 65 recognizing the authority and jurisdiction of cities and municipalities over the municipal waters and management of contiguous fishery resources such as bays which straddle several municipalities/cities or provinces in an integrated manner - Sec. 16 Fisheries Code of the Philippines RA 8550, as amended by RA 10654 prescribe reference points and harvest control rules in all fishing grounds or fishery management areas, with concurrence of LGUs, special agencies & with FARMCs - Sec. 8 & IRR BFAR to assist LGUs in developing their technical capability in developing and protecting fisheries resources and implement rules to conserve straddling fish stocks - Sec. 65 q&r protect rights of subsistence fisherfolks, with priority to municipal fisherfolk - Sec. 2.d What are FMAs or Fisheries Management Areas? FAO 263, s.2019 Establishment of fisheries management areas for the conservation and management of fisheries in philippine waters A new era of fisheries governance! Fisheries Management Areas Roll-Out Fisheries science brings together ecology, mathematics and statistics, population dynamics, marine biology, and economics to better understand fish stocks and fisheries so that they can be sustainably managed. Under the Fisheries Code, “Fish and Fishery/Aquatic Products” include not only finfish but also mollusks, crustaceans, echinoderms, marine mammals, and all other species of aquatic flora and fauna and all other products of aquatic living resources in any form. (#25) Fish Stock Assessment is a process which is made up of four steps: Step 1: Data collection. Information about a fish stock, such as length, weight, age, and average catch. Step 2: Stock assessment. Analyzes the collected data to learn more about a fish stock. This fishery managers understand: •the estimated stock abundance •the estimated level of fishing pressure on the stock •effects of environmental conditions on the stock •how potential decisions or events might affect those stocks Step 3: Science advice. Advice based on the stock assessment analysis or other scientific activities or information. This advice can include estimates of stock abundance, life history information such as growth or maturity, and information on environmental conditions affecting the stock and many others. In the current regime of FMAs, this advice comes from the Science Advisory Group (SAG). Step 4: Fishery management decision. This sets out the management measures for a specific fishing ground or fishing season. It can include opening and closing dates, size restrictions, gear restrictions, and Total Allowable Catch or quota. Over the longer-term, science advice also informs the development of fisheries management planning documents, like National Fisheries Management Plans and Rehabilitation Plans. In addition to science advice, the NFARMC also considers information provided by other groups, such as industry, Indigenous communities, CSOs, coastal communities, academe and other stakeholders to make fishery management decisions. Before any Fisheries Administrative Orders (FAOs) are issued, it needs the approval of the NFARMC. Fish stocks Fish stocks are not the same as fish populations. A population is a group of fish of the same species, but a fish stock can be a population, a smaller subset of one population or can include more than one population. Fish stocks are often identified by management area, which are defined, geographical regions. When we assess a fish stock, we are estimating how many fish are in a management area in a given period, as well as the expected impacts and benefits of proposed fisheries management measures for that stock. They are typically fish of the same species. Individual fish in different stocks might mix or migrate between different areas. Individual fish in different stocks might mix or migrate between different areas. Information from stock assessments help fishery managers make decisions about management measures for a given fish stock. Management measures are rules or directions to follow for specific management areas or fisheries. Stock vs population A population of roundscad can be found along the coast from Sulu Sea to Celebes Sea. However, the roundscad stock managed by FMA 5 only includes the fish found in parts of Palawan Province from Calamianes to Bataraza. About stock assessment It is the scientific process of analyzing available data to evaluate the abundance, productivity, and options for harvest levels of fish stocks in the past, present, and future. Stock assessments help to: •describe what is known about the state of a stock, including estimates of: • abundance (number of fish) • total stock biomass (total weight of all fish in the stock) • biological processes (such as how fast fish grow, when they mature, and how long they live) • environmental conditions affecting the stock • harvest rates the stock is experiencing • natural mortality (from causes other than fishing) •evaluate the expected impacts and benefits of proposed fisheries management measures, such as adjustments to: • harvest rate • size limits • spatial or seasonal closures • types of fishing gears Stock assessments provide the information needed for evidence-based decision making. Stock assessments also help evaluate the expected biological impacts and benefits of proposed fisheries management measures. Stock assessment methods Fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data are often used in stock assessments as part of mathematical models which can describe the changes observed in the stock and fishery in the past. Stock assessment models are used to estimate how a stock has changed over time and can be used to predict what could happen in the future, such as how a stock might respond to different levels of catch or different environmental conditions. Computer simulations Computer simulations test how a stock might be affected by: •a variety of possible harvest options •changing conditions in the environment that might affect the number of fish hatching and surviving Simulations can help determine what level of harvest can help maintain the stock above a certain limit. Data collection methods Data collection can be challenging because most fish and other marine species cannot be directly observed in their natural habitat. Some fish move freely over large areas, even straddling international waters, making them difficult to count. Many methods and techniques are used to collect data for stock assessments and other science processes. Types of assessment data Scientific data used in stock assessments can come from a variety of sources that are grouped into two categories. Data are either collected directly from fisheries (fisherydependent) or from outside of fisheries (fisheryindependent). Fishery-dependent data Data that are collected directly from a fishery are called fishery-dependent data and can be collected by government, Indigenous communities, or industry. Data are gathered a variety of ways including: •self-reporting by fishers •at-sea observers •dockside monitoring •at-sea electronic vessel monitoring systems Commercial Fishery have reportorial requirements, such as fishing log books and other documents submitted to BFAR. These data include information on the catch of each species, including fish that are brought to shore, fish that are released at sea, and fishing effort (the number of nets, boats, and hours spent fishing). Fish sampled from the catches can provide biological information on the stock, including fish size, age and maturity, and helps us understand how the characteristics of the stock might be changing over time. To gain a deeper understanding of a fish population, we also collect data outside of the fishery using scientific protocols. Fishery-independent data Data that are collected from research conducted outside of a fishery are called fishery-independent data. The methods used for this research are often referred to as surveys, where data are collected using set protocols that allow for repeatable and randomized sampling. Data can be collected by government, Indigenous communities, industry or other non-government groups in a number of ways including: •surveys using trawls, purse seine, gillnet or longline gear •tagging to monitor movement •egg and larval surveys •test fisheries (e.g., to determine timing of spawning or suitability of various gear types) •visual survey including SCUBA and aerial surveys •acoustic surveys to find fish using sonar techniques •biological sampling of fish obtained in surveys These surveys differ from fishery-dependent methods as they may: •occur at different times of year than a fishery •cover different (or smaller or larger) areas than the fishery •use specialized gear types or sampling methods M/V DA-BFAR Fishery-independent surveys and data can reveal changes in abundance, distribution or biological characteristics of fish populations. The data collected from these surveys can also help us better understand fishery-dependent data. Repeated surveys provide a time series of data that can show how stocks change over time. Collecting data over a long time series helps us better detect changes in the population. As some fish can live up to 50 years or more, it takes more time for changes to show in the data. The DA-BFAR conducts surveys using the M/V DA-BFAR (DYCA) almost every year. They provide fishery-independent data for key stocks fished commercially and recreationally by covering a wide area and collecting information on the abundance, distribution, and biology of many species. Survey and gear types Near surface There are a number of survey methods that happen at or near the surface of the water. These tend to target younger fish at early developmental stages (such as eggs and larvae) or marine mammals. Usually plankton surveys for eggs and larvae (horizontal towing of plankton nets) or surveys of marine mammals) visual observations aboard vessels. Surface tows Plankton nets are dragged near the surface to collect eggs and larval fishes, often nearshore and in bays. Scientists can then estimate the density and distribution of targeted species. SCUBA SCUBA divers may conduct underwater observations to collect data on the size of the spawning aggregations of pelagic fish, density of targeted species, and even ecological characteristics. SCUBA is also often used for bottom surveys. Aerial surveys Aerial photographic and visual surveys are the main sources of abundance and distribution data for marine mammals because of their wide distribution and vast migration. Mid-water Mid-water surveys and gear types often target fish that live in the pelagic zone (the area between the surface and the bottom of the ocean), like sardine and scads. Depending on the gear type used in a survey, data on multiple species can be collected at the same time. Acoustic surveys Pulses of acoustic energy are sent into the water and the energy that is reflected back is read, much in the same way that sonar works. Acoustic surveys are often paired with trawl surveys where scientists can collect data on biomass and species presence to help with converting the acoustic signal to biomass. Gillnets Gillnets are typically deployed in the mid-water zone. The thin netting is nearly invisible to fish and will capture certain sizes of fish of multiple species as they swim into the net. Purse seine Used to catch aggregations of fish. A group of fish is circled with a large net then the leadline (at the bottom) is brought together to effectively close the net before it is hauled onto the boat. Bottom Bottom surveys and gear types target fish that are often associated with the ocean floor, like groupers, lobster, crab, and solefish, and other groundfish species. Depending on the gear type used in a survey, data on multiple species can be collected at the same time. Multispecies bottom trawls Weighted nets are dragged along the sea floor to collect species living on or near the sea floor, such as groundfish (like solefish) and crustaceans (like shrimp). Traps Baited traps are often used to catch crustaceans (like lobster and crab) that live near the bottom of the ocean. Traps often have exit areas that allow for small individuals to escape. They are connected to the surface through a lead line and buoy, for retrieval. Longlines Longlines have a long central line with baited hooks spaced at regular intervals off of this main line. Longlines can be set either near the surface to target pelagic midwater species (like tuna) or on the sea floor to target benthic deep-water species (like halibut), as shown here. NSAP in Fisheries Management: Science and Policy Interface in Fisheries Management NSAP Overview “The National Stock Assessment Program (NSAP) was conceptualized due to the lack of standardized and continuous information on fishery resources which is fundamental to fishery management and the apparent institutional incapacity of the Regional Field Units to conduct resource assessment studies in their respective areas of jurisdiction” Noel C. Barut A Special Order from the Secretary of the DA designating the trained staffs to act as the Project Leader and Assistant Project Leader of the National Stock Assessment Program in their respective Regions and a CoProject Leader from the trained BFAR Research Staff was issued in January 1997. NSAP Overview OBJECTIVES N – National S – Stock term: A – Assessment Long 1. To develop and institutionalize the P – Program capability of the region in resource 2. assessment, management and development. To generate reliable data as basis in the formulation of policies for the management and conservation of the country’s marine resources in order to attain sustainable development and exploitation. Short term: 1. 2. To determine the trend of seasonal distribution, relative abundance, size and species composition of the major marine resources in each fishing ground. To provide estimates of population parameters of the major marine resources in each fishing ground. NSAP Overview Performance Indicators Performance Indicator measures the status of fisheries resources stocks and/or intensity of fishing exerted on a fisheries stock/s. Performance Indicators can be on economics, biological, ecological, social and/or socio-political. Performance Indicators Ideally, reference points (esp. Target RPs) should be based on indicators relevant to priority fisheries management goals. Some examples of indicators: Production Employment Biological …but some reference points are more useful for fisheries management than others. Performance Indicators • Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) • Exploitation ratio • Average length (Lbar) • Production • Length at first maturity (Lm) • Size composition • Spawning Potential Ratio • Species composition • Seasonality Examples… BFAR-NSAP IX BFAR-NSAP IX Performance Indicators Concepts.. • Catch composition - high valued species are declining and proportion of low value species are increasing • Catch per unit effort - This is how much is caught (kg) per time of fishing (e.g., hour). The bigger the fish population, the easier it is to catch fish and so the higher CPUE tends to be. As more fishers compete for the same resource, catch per fisher will also get smaller (all other things being the same)(smaller size of the pie). At what point will fishing still be economically viable? Performance Indicators Some definitions.. • Length at maturity is the minimum size at which a particular species is able to reproduce. The fish/invertebrate should not be harvested until it has had a chance to reproduce so that the population will continue. • Average length of captured fish relative to length at maturity • Length at first capture relative to length at maturity • % juveniles, % adults, % mega-spawners of fishes caught/uncaught • Ideally, fishes caught should have reproduced at least once (mature and not juvenile). Also, bigger adults produce much more eggs than smaller adults so we should also try not to catch these bigger adults (mega-spawners) Performance Indicators Some definitions.. • Fishing mortality - This is the proportion of the average fish abundance that is caught by fishing. Depending upon the life-history type of the fish, it is suggested that fishing mortality should not exceed that of natural mortality (or the proportion of fish that die of natural causes) • Exploitation ratio - This is fishing mortality divided by total mortality. Given the above, this should generally not exceed 0.5. • Spawning Potential Ratio - this is the proportion of the natural unfished spawning potential remaining left at any given level of fishing pressure. 20% is generally regarded as the level needed for replacement (for a stable population) Reference Points Once an indicator or system of indicators has been selected, a reference points needs to be defined… Types of RPs: a. Target Reference Points - Level to be achieved and maintained b. Trigger Reference Points - Level that signals the need to take prescribed actions c. Limit Reference points - Level to be avoided Harvest Control Rules Harvest Control Measures Source: BFAR & USAID NSAP data utilized in fisheries management Source: BFAR & USAID CURRENT National Stock Assessment Program (NSAP) MONITORED LANDING CENTERS As of 2022, NSAP conducts fish catch monitoring in 736 fish landing centers throughout the Philippines, with more sites to be added under the proposed expansion. NSAP data utilized in fisheries management Proceedings on FMA Coordination Conference (August, 2022) NSAP data utilized in fisheries management Palawan Visayan Sea Zamboanga Peninsula Davao Gulf NSAP data utilized in fisheries management NSAP data utilized in fisheries management LIST OF SPECIES ASSESSED IN 2022 Sardinella gibbosa (Goldstripe sardinella) FMA 11 (Region V, VI, VII) Sardinella fimbriata (fringescale sardinella) SUB-FMA 6 (Region III, NCR) Sardinella lemuru (Bali sardinella) FMA 4 (Region VI, VII, IX, BARMM) FMA 7 (Region IVA, V, VIII) FMA 9 (Region VII, VIII, IX, X, CARAGA) Decapterus macrosoma (Shortfin scad) FMA 5 (Region IVB, VI, BARMM) FMA 10 (Region VII, VIII) Saurida tumbil (Greater Lizardfish) FMA 6 (Region I, III, IVA, IVB, CAR, NCR) Selar crumenophthalmus (Bigeye scad) FMA 2 (Region VIII, XI, CARAGA) FMA 3 (Region IX, XIII, BARMM) FMA 8 (Region VIII, CARAGA) Portunus pelagicus (Blue-swimming Crab) FMA 2 (Region VIII, XI, CARAGA) Otolithes ruber (Tigertooth croaker) FMA 1 (Region II,III, IVA, V, CAR) Awaous melanocephalus (Largesnout goby) FMA 6 (Region I, III, IVA, IVB, CAR, NCR) 17 Stocks (comprising 9 species) with identified Reference Points NSAP data utilized in fisheries management NSAP_Attachments Other Initiatives on Fish Stock Assessment Fisheries Resource Management Project (FRMP) Bays Coverage NSAPNSAP Coverage 1999 - 2008 (1998-2002) NATIONAL STOCK ASSESSMENT PROGRAM NSAP Database System Aims: To provide a system with an efficient means of storing, managing and subsequently retrieving data for analytical purposes To facilitate the management of NSAP data Entry Screen Map of Gears operating in Visayan Sea Red- Mid-water trawl Orange- Purse seine Green- Danish seine Brown- Otter trawl Blue- Ring net Catch Composition ▪ Vertebrates 400 334 350 318 311 304 283 300 250 200 150 100 54 61 65 60 65 50 0 1998 1999 2000 •20% increase in the number of family •9% decrease in the number of species Family Species 2001 2002 Seasonality of Catch 120.00 100.00 3 Catch (t x 10 ) 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S 1997 1998 1999 2000 total municipal 2001 2002 commercial - Seasonality of fishing operation for municipal fisheries for the past five years is not pronounced. - On commercial fisheries, the trend of production maybe influenced by southeast and northeast monsoons. * The five-year data have high production during southwest monsoon or “habagat” , during the months of June to October * Lean season were observed during northeast monsoon (“amihan”), during the months of November to January. Gear Inventory Gear 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Danish seine Otter trawl Mid-water trawl Ring net Purse seine 215 53 36 12 37 305 88 48 12 46 207 152 52 12 37 166 100 81 41 36 166 88 81 30 19 TOTAL 353 499 460 397 384 Production Estimates & CPUE (kg/d) Fish Harvest ('000 MT) Catch (‘000 MT) Effort (# of F/B) CPUE (kg/d) 160 16,885.71 140 149.06 120 100 149.06 353 16,885.71 1999 2000 138.92 499 16,647.11 111.65 460 15,362.23 79.67 397 9,577.78 16,647.11 2002 99.41 384 13,775.44 18000 15,326.23 13,775.44 138.92 16000 14000 111.65 12000 9,577.78 99.41 80 60 2001 79.67 10000 8000 6000 40 4000 20 2000 0 0 CPUE (kg/d) 1998 Comparative Length Frequency Range of R. kanagurta 14 12 Rk (MWT) Rk (DS) 10 % Frequency Rk (PS) 8 6 4 2 30.5 29 27.75 26.25 24.75 23.25 20.25 21.75 Mid-length 18.75 17.25 15.75 14.25 12.75 11.25 9.75 8.25 - Results Profile per fishing gears Results Profile of top six species State of Capture Fisheries Commercial and municipal harvest (in million tons) from 1950’s to the present (BFAR & BAS) Selected finfishes for study (priority commodities for R&D) Yellowfin tuna Giant trevally (Caranx ignobilis) Bigeye tuna Anchovies Skipjack tuna Groupers Mackerels Siganids Sardines Tilapia Roundscads Milkfish Surplus production (Schaefer 1954, Fox 1970) Cost of fishing Yield MSY Maximum Sustainable Yield MEY Maximum Economic Yield Effort at MSY Fishing effort Reduction of fishing effort Level in mid 80’s Effort reduction Surplus production model for pelagic fishes (Dalzell et al, 1986) Reduction of fishing effort 18 16 Catch (in kg/day) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 Distance (in m eters) Relationship between average CPUE (kg/day) and average distances among neighboring stationary fishing gears (BFAR-FRMP 2002) Distribution of stationary fishing gears in Sapian Bay, Philippines (BFAR-FRMP, 2002) 600 NSAP Coverage 1998 - 2002 E > EMax E0.1 ≤ E ≤ EMax E < E0.1 Sample results Fig. 27. Length (cm) ranges regardless of species per gear (1998 - 2002) Percentage of the catch of the commercially important species of fish in Camotes Sea for 1998-2002. DS T BSGN HL MHL R. f aughni 2 1.11% Gear BSLL D. kurroides 3 4 .1% SG FC FT 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 Length (cm) Fig. 6: Annual Species Composition (CY 1998-2002) 160 159 156 146 150 No. of Species 151 S. crumenophthalmus 2 1.3 8 % 134 140 130 120 1 2 3 Year 4 5 D. macrosoma 23% An Ecopath box model (with graphical representation) History & Development of FMAs Jurisdictions of Government Institutions municipal waters, prior consultation with FARMCs in enacting ordinances beyond municipal waters and commercial fisheries PAMB: NIPAS MPA (sub-FMA) [Sec. 5, FAO 263} Statistical Philippine Fishing Grounds Fisheries Management Areas Roll-Out Slide from NFRDI/Francisco Torres BFAR FOO No. 217 series of 2008 Adoption and implementation of the integrated Fisheries Management Unit (FMU) Scheme Fisheries Management Areas Roll-Out Slide from NFRDI/Francisco Torres Fisheries Management Areas Roll-Out FMA Organizational Chart The cycle of science advice Implementation The cycle of science advice After the data have been collected and analyzed, the stock assessment results and conclusions are summarized in the form of science advice. This can include estimated stock status, and estimates of potential impacts of management actions on the stock. This becomes part of the annual cycle of science advice, which includes: 1.data collection and monitoring o research, surveys, fishery data (landings, effort), biological data 2.stock assessment o data analysis, population modelling, status estimation, forecasting 3. science advice o peer review (Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat), science advice documents 4. consultation o advisory committees (Indigenous groups, provinces, industry and environmental non-governmental organizations) 5. management recommendation o total allowable catch, licensing, management measures, rebuilding plans 6. fishing season 7. post-season review o quota reconciliation, sample processing, data on landings/effort This cycle is repeated each year, but some of the steps from 3-5 might happen only once every two or more years depending on how the stock is managed. EAFM is “an approach to fisheries that strives to balance diverse societal objectives or needs by taking account of the knowledge and uncertainties about biotic, abiotic, and human components of ecosystems and their interaction; and applying in an integrated approach to fisheries management within ecologically meaningful boundaries.” Amended Philippine Fisheries Code, Implementing Rules adapted from FAO 2003 Philippines Mainstreaming EAFM Planning Module Taking a precautionary approach A precautionary approach means: •being cautious with decisions when scientific information is uncertain •not using the absence of adequate scientific information as a reason to postpone or fail to take action to avoid serious harm to the resource. Fisheries science is one source of information that helps us implement the different parts of the fishery decision-making framework incorporating the precautionary approach. Fisheries science includes establishing or providing advice on: •reference points •stock status •evaluation of harvest decision rules •consideration of uncertainty and risk Together, these help to inform management decisions for a stock. Reference points Reference points are used as benchmarks to evaluate the biomass (a measure of fisheries abundance) or harvest rate for a stock. Reference points can represent the following for biomass or harvest rate: •targets and thresholds – to achieve desired states for the stock and fishery •limits – to avoid undesired states where the stock is at increased risk of serious harm Targets, thresholds, and limit reference points can be used to compare the status of a stock relative to conservation and other fishery objectives, and to provide advice on the likelihood of which management measures could meet those objectives. Stock status Stock assessments can be used to estimate where stock abundance or biomass is in relation to: •limits •targets •the three stock status zones • critical • cautious • healthy This is important to keep track of how stock abundance or biomass changes over time. Evaluation of harvest strategies with harvest decision rules A harvest strategy is the approach to managing the harvest of a stock. Key components of a harvest strategy include 1.pre-agreed harvest control rules 2.management actions for each stock status zone/area Scientists provide advice to help evaluate harvest control measures to see if they will help to achieve conservation and other fishery objectives. This can be done: •before they are put into practice using simulations of how the stock might respond to different management measures, and/or •after they have been in use for some time to check how well they are working. Consideration of uncertainty and risk Scientific uncertainty is present in all steps of the Fish Stock Assessment process, as well as in the implementation of a harvest strategy or management approach. Whenever possible, scientific uncertainty is taken into account within the stock assessment and scientific advice. Fisheries scientists also provides advice on the potential consequences or risks of different options for management measures, and how likely the options are to achieve objectives. The results of these evaluations help inform evidence-based (science) decision making to achieve sustainable fisheries. Data collection activities We’ve been conducting research surveys for decades to generate data to help scientists: •conduct stock assessments •provide advice •track the health of the country’s fish stocks Some of these surveys are short-term, address specific questions, and may occur for only one or a few years. Other surveys are designed for long-term monitoring and will be added to our expanding at-sea monitoring surveys list. Because of the vast size of the oceans and large number of major fish stocks in the Philippines, we also rely on Indigenous, industry, academic and private partnerships that engage in data collection both nationally and internationally. Fisheries science research When providing advice on fish stocks, it helps to have some general information on fish biology and the ecological needs of the stock, such as life history characteristics and predator-prey interactions. We gain a lot of this information from fish samples collected in the fishery and during independent surveys. However, additional research helps to address specific questions that allow us to use the best available information to provide science advice. We focus our research on improving stock assessment and science advice by: •increasing knowledge of the biology of fish stocks and factors affecting fish population size, structure, distribution and movements. •improving the understanding of how management measures may affect stocks •addressing emerging issues due to changing climate, technology, or fishing behaviour •reducing uncertainty in fishery-dependent or fisheryindependent data by identifying and addressing gaps •exploring new technologies that may improve or enable more frequent fish stock monitoring •developing innovative quantitative methods, such as new mathematical models •collecting additional information about ecosystems and how their various environmental or biological components interact with each other Fishery managers, industry, and Indigenous communities, work together to create harvest decision rules. These rules help decide when the catch: •is at a level that can maintain the stock •should be lowered if the stock size gets too small •could be increased as the stock grows Uncertainties Uncertainties can be grouped into two categories: 1.measurement uncertainty, where perfect estimates of what is being measured, like stock size and harvest, can’t be guaranteed 2. process uncertainty, where how a stock behaves or interacts with the environment is not fully known More uncertainty means less precise estimates of stock status, harvest rates, or future trends. During stock assessments, biologists identify the main uncertainties in their advice. They also explain how they have taken those uncertainties into account. This advice helps indicate how uncertainty may affect possible risks associated with management decisions, or where more research is needed. Data availability Stock assessments often require large amounts of data, collected over multiple years. The amount of data collected for a stock, as well as the schedule for data collection and stock assessment, can vary depending on various factors such as resources for research or area accessibility. There are different techniques to deal with different amounts of data availability. One way to deal with limited data is to provide a different kind of science advice, one that uses alternative methods like: •indicators •provisional estimates of biomass or fishing mortality at maximum sustainable yield •expert judgement This approach can help provide similar advice on the possible impacts of different harvest levels. Another way to deal with limited data is to use a “datapoor” stock assessment method that doesn’t need as much information going in. It can give some of the same kinds of results that the best “data-rich” methods can provide, and it does this by making more assumptions in areas where we are uncertain. For example, we can compare a data-poor stock with a stock of a closelyrelated species that has more information, to make predictions about how the data-poor stock may respond under similar harvest rates or environmental conditions. •Current initiative: Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management • Includes the management of commercial fisheries on a species-by-species basis. • Incorporates ecosystem variables such as water temperature, predatory-prey dynamics, and habitat. • Management measures are outlined in a Fisheries Management Plan. •Future work: Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management • Expands the scope of the management of commercial fisheries to include simultaneous management of multiple species. • Incorporates ecosystem variables such as water temperature, predatory-prey dynamics, and habitat. • Management measures are outlined in an Ecosystem Management Plan. •Estimates of past, present, and future stock abundance •Estimates of fishing pressure •Estimates of catch and fishery performance •Estimates of current stock status in relation to reference points, and recent trends •Life history information, such as growth and maturity •Estimates of reference points used to compare the status of a stock to conservation, economic, and socio-cultural objectives, and to determine which management measures should be adjusted to meet objectives •Information on the ecosystem and environmental conditions affecting the stock, like: • oceanographic factors • ecological factors • climate factors •Options for management measures, like: • catch limits • harvest rates •Forecasts or simulations of possible future stock states under different: • harvest levels • management measures • environmental conditions •The length of one generation of a fish stock, to estimate how long it might take for stock growth to meet rebuilding objectives •Key uncertainties or factors that are not known that may affect the science advice •Recommendations for future work THANK YOU! Francisco SB. Torres Jr. Senior Science Research Specialist, NFRDI