Wits IAM 4 Remaining Useful Life PDF

IAM 4 REMAINING USEFUL LIFE Objective Expected Useful Life Factors affecting RUL Legal Getting Acquainted with Demand Levels of maintenance Deterioration patterns / depreciation Data confidence Presenter: Rob Childs Pr...

IAM 4 REMAINING USEFUL LIFE Objective Expected Useful Life Factors affecting RUL Legal Getting Acquainted with Demand Levels of maintenance Deterioration patterns / depreciation Data confidence Presenter: Rob Childs Pr Eng PMP CSAM  Objective Reliably inform estimates of: Consumption of asset value to date Estimate remaining service potential / value Time to replacement Risk exposure Priority for replacement  Depreciated Replacement Cost (DRC) ❖ Note….. DRC …. Different to physical deterioration pattern CRC (curves) – important when RV assessing asset status and RUL RUL …… EUL Consumption of CRC Current Replacement Cost EUL Expected Useful Life “community wealth” – RUL Remaining Useful Life generally equal whether RV Residual Value asset old or new……. Straight line The Depreciated Replacement Cost (DRC) is determined by the following formula: RUL DRC = x (CRC - RV) + RV EUL 3 Nature, Extent, Value and Portfolio Health Annual DRC RV Cost Extent CRC Portfolio depreciatio Asset Class Asset Group Type Extent (R (R opening unit (R million) health n million) million) (R million) (R million) Boreholes 258 No 90 51 0 Good 4 94 Bulk Mains 354 661 m 1 293 473 0 Very poor 17 660 Dams & Weirs 1 No 57 36 3 Very good 1 84 Distribution 4 761 266 m 2 793 1 299 0 Poor 62 1534 Water Supply Distribution Points 350 No 42 33 0 Very good 2 20 Network PRV stations 4 No 4 4 0 Very good 0 2 Pump stations 33 No 38 21 0 Fair 1 37 Reservoirs 368 No 356 186 2 Fair 9 494 Water treatment 6 No 58 32 4 Fair 2 72 works (WTW) Totals 4 731 2 136 9 Poor 99 2 997 Physical Deterioration Pattern? 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 Remaining Useful Life (% EUL) Good % Condition - 10 Very Fair deterioration Good 20 30 Poor 40 50 60 70 Very 80 Poor 90 100 …. linked to Condition Grade Grade Description Detailed description Indicative RUL 1. Excellent Sound structure, well maintained 70 – 100% EUL Serves needs but minor deterioration 2. Good 45 - 70% EUL (< 5%) 3. Fair Marginal, clearly evident deterioration (5-20%) 25 - 45% EUL Significant deterioration of structure and/or 4. Poor appearance, significant impairment of 10-25% EUL functionality (20-50%) Unsound, failed needs reconstruction/ 5. Very poor replacement 1-10% EUL (> 50% needs replacement) ‘EUL’ is Expected Useful Life (Estimated Useful Life when new) ‘RUL’ is Remaining Useful Life  Estimating Life Based on Condition Estimating the Remaining Useful Life for any current condition grade (as % of the Expected Useful Life (%EUL) – sensitive to the assumed pattern of deterioration ……. and each has different start conditions and operating environment – ongoing monitoring is essential Remaining Useful Life (%EUL) 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 Very Good Good Fair % Condition deterioration Poor 20 40 Importance of 60 Very 80 informed Poor 1) CONDITION DETERIORATION CURVE - Rapid 100 monitoring regime – and advance Remaining Useful Life (% EUL) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 modeling for 0 critical & high 20 Very value infra % Condition - deterioration Good Good 40 Fair © Western Cape Government 2012 | 60 Poor 80 2) CONDITION DETERIORATION CURVE - Slow Very Poor 100  Availability and reliability of data Consider the reliability of the data – age, condition, plans to replace / upgrade? Expected No Useful Life In Adopt Reliable Reliable Yes Determine Yes condition- Yes age- condition age data? age-based RUL based RUL based data band? RUL No No Scheduled for Use Is the RUL Adopt median of Yes renewal or Yes scheduled 3 years or condition-band disposal in next 3 RUL (