Week 13.2 PlanetBound_ClimateChange PDF

PSY172 Introduction to Psychological Week 13 Health and Wellbeing Part 2: Environmental challenges: Planetary boundaries and climate change Unit Coordinator: Sonja Geige...

PSY172 Introduction to Psychological Week 13 Health and Wellbeing Part 2: Environmental challenges: Planetary boundaries and climate change Unit Coordinator: Sonja Geiger 1 Acknowledgement of country Cultural Burning Noongar people in the southwest have burned the forests on a 3-4-year cycle forests remains healthy and beautiful mitigate the risk of large, high-intensity wildfires, Provides work opportunities for Noongar men and women 2 Learning outcomes What do I want you to know? What the concept of “planetary boundaries” means Which of those boundaries have been trespassed Why geologist talk about a new era the “Anthropocene” What planetary boundaries have to do with human health and behaviour. How Australia’s climate is changing. What are the main changes relevant for human health. 3 1 Planetary boundaries and global climate change Planetary Boundaries Definition presents a set of nine interrelated indicators of the earth system state thought to safeguard the planet’s equilibrium within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive crossing boundaries increases the risk of generating large-scale abrupt or irreversible environmental changes 5 Rockström et al. (2009) https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html Biodiversity loss “6th mass extinction” Species are currently going extinct at a rate 1,000 times higher than the background rate driven by habitat destruction, overexploitation, pollution, and climate change planetary and societal significance: weakens the resilience of ecosystems, reduces the availability of natural resources, and compromises the essential services Different aspects Individual organism Species Gene pool diversity Ecological habitat IPBES (2019) Land use change Deforestation conversion of natural landscapes, (e.g. forests and wetlands) into agricultural and urban areas. since the 1960s, the world has lost 20% of its forest cover. Consequences: habitat loss, biodiversity decline, soil degradation, disruptions to the global carbon cycle, exacerbating climate change → 55% of the Earth’s ice-free land is now used for human agriculture and settlements. Novel entities Synthetic chemicals “novel entities” first assessed in 2022 (synthetic chemicals including plastics) planetary boundary has now been exceeded better risk management and reduction in production and release of pollutants needed urgently. Perssen et al. (2022) Climate change CO2 emissions 420 ppm Keeling curve is a measurement of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere made atop Hawaii’s Mauna Loa since 1958 Longest running such 350 ppm measurement in the world https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ Climate change Temperature rise +1.1° Celsius since 1880 Planetary Boundaries Historical development 11 Planetary Boundaries Historical development 12 Climate tipping elements are components of the Earth's climate system that can undergo abrupt and irreversible changes Tipping point: Antarctic ice coverage → West Antarctic ice sheet could raise sea levels by an additional 3 meters Steffen et al. (2015) The anthropocene “The human-made age”: denotes the present geological time interval, in which many conditions and processes on Earth are profoundly altered by human impact 1880 baseline: beginning of the second industrial revolution Technological advancement: railway, telegraphy, light bulb 1945 baseline: start of the Great Acceleration of human activity: erosion and sediment transport due to urbanization and agriculture; perturbations of the cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and various metals together with new chemical compounds… environmental changes: global warming, sea-level rise, ocean acidification and spreading oceanic ‘dead zones’; rapid changes in the biosphere: habitat loss, predation, explosion of domestic animal populations and species invasions; proliferation and dispersion of many new ‘minerals’ and ‘rocks’ including concrete, fly ash and plastic… Crutzen (2006), the Anthropocene working group A donut model of sustainable development 1. Condition: Below the environmental ceiling 2. Condition: Above the social foundation Raworth (2017) 17 A dice model of sustainable behaviour 1. Condition: Below the environmental ceiling 2. Condition: Above the social foundation Geiger et al. (2018) 18 2 Climate Change in Australia Key points of Australia’s Climate Since the beginning of the 20th century warmed by 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began. Oceans around Australia are acidifying and have warmed >1°C Since mid-century: 15% - 19% decrease of rainfall in the southwest. decrease in streamflow at most gauges (not the North). increase in extreme fire weather and a longer fire season. Snow depth and snow cover have decreased in alpine regions. Sea levels are rising around Australia, including more frequent extremes. Yet: decrease in the number of tropical cyclones observed. CSIRO (2022) Australian Climate stripes +1.47 °C since 1900 21 Extreme heat events “black summer” 2019/2020 bushfire season CSIRO (2022) Rainfall Ocean heat and acidification The world’s oceans have taken up 91 per cent of the extra energy stored by the planet The ocean does not warm evenly. Regions around Australia are warming several times faster than the global mean. together with marine heatwaves, this poses a significant threat to coral reef ecosystems. Sea level rise Combination of ice melting and heat expansion Slow and steady development Late reaction Development is locked in until mid century Percentage of population, Young & Kelly (2015) Sea level rise in Perth Metropolitan Area Sea level rises of up to 30cm by 2050 are locked in For Perth: 84 cm by 2100 Further impacts of SLR: Retreat of coastlines Destabilisation of coastal eco- systems Coastal flooding will be more severe Groundwater can be contaminated Damage to infrastructure Future Climate in Australia South West: Continued drying Longer drought periods Shorter cool & rainy season More intense short duration rainfall events Extreme sea levels with % < once in a 100 years % > once a year by mid 21st century Future Climate and health impact Think & Reflect for a moment South West: Which of the climatic changes will Continued drying have a direct impact on your health? Longer drought periods Which of the changes do you think Shorter cool & rainy are most relevant for public health? season Which might affect you only in an More intense short indirect way? duration rainfall events Extreme sea levels with % < once in a 100 years % > once a year by mid 21st century Summary The earth system’s equilibrium is safeguarded by 9 different indicators reflecting undisputable “planetary boundaries” Human behaviour has a collective effect on these boundaries: e.g., land use, biodiversity loss, ozone layer, climate change with increasing impact since the 1950ies → the “Anthropocene” A sustainable development needs to take place below planetary boundaries and above social thresholds to ensure a healthy life: a doughnut model of sustainable development Sustainable behaviour on the individual level needs to follow the same principles Climate Change in Australia has regional effects Amongst main changes are: longer drought periods (SW), more extreme rainfall events and fire risk, and locked-in sea level rise 29  Crutzen, P. J. (2006). The “anthropocene”. In Earth system science in the anthropocene (pp. 13- Reference References 18). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg. CSIRO (2022). State of the Climate 2022. Online source: sfor forWeek 13 https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate Week 13 Geiger, S. M., Fischer, D., & Schrader, U. (2018). Measuring what matters in sustainable consumption: An integrative framework for the selection of relevant behaviors. Sustainable development, 26(1), 18-33. IPBES (2019): Global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. E. S. Brondizio, J. Settele, S. Díaz, and H. T. Ngo (editors). IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany. 1148 pages. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3831673 Persson, L., Carney Almroth, B. M., Collins, C. D., Cornell, S., De Wit, C. A., Diamond, M. L.,... & Hauschild, M. Z. (2022). Outside the safe operating space of the planetary boundary for novel entities. Environmental Science & Technology, 56(3), 1510-1521. Raworth, K. (2017). Doughnut economics: seven ways to think like a 21st-century economist. Chelsea Green Publishing. Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Å., Chapin, F. S., Lambin, E. F.,... & Foley, J. A. (2009). A safe operating space for humanity. Nature, 461(7263), 472-475. Steffen, W., Broadgate, W., Deutsch, L., Gaffney, O., & Ludwig, C. (2015). The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration. The Anthropocene Review, 2(1), 81–98. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019614564785 Yang, Shu-Qing & Kelly, Samuel. (2015). The Use of Coastal Reservoirs and SPP Strategy to Provide Sufficient High Quality Water to Coastal Communities. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 03, 80-92. 10.4236/gep.2015.35010.