Middle East Politics Week 12: The Arab Spring PDF

Middle East Politics Week 12: The Arab Spring The Arab Spring A series of pro-democracy uprisings, protests, and political movements that began in late 2010 and spread across many Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Scholars usually consider the following as the main rea...

Middle East Politics Week 12: The Arab Spring The Arab Spring A series of pro-democracy uprisings, protests, and political movements that began in late 2010 and spread across many Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Scholars usually consider the following as the main reasons: ○ Economic hardships: youth unemployment ○ Corruption ○ Authoritarianism: lack of freedoms ○ Social Media (both as a reason and facilitator) The Path to the Arab Spring (1): Youth Unemployment Unemployment was a driving factor in the Arab Spring uprisings, and youth unemployment in the region remains the highest in the world. ○ Tunisia: By 2010, over 30% of Tunisian youth were unemployed. This issue hit recent college graduates particularly hard, contributing to frustration and disillusionment with the government. Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation symbolized this despair, as his difficulties finding stable work and the harassment he faced as a street vendor ignited mass protests. ○ Egypt: Over 25% of young Egyptians were jobless despite a high level of education among them. The lack of job opportunities, combined with the high cost of living, made it difficult for young people to marry and move out of their parents’ homes, fostering a sense of stagnation and resentment against the regime of Hosni Mubarak. The Path to the Arab Spring (2): Corruption Corruption led to huge economic inequalities that brought a destitute mass together to change things. ○ Tunisia: Ben Ali’s family, particularly his wife’s Trabelsi family, controlled major sectors of the economy and received privileged treatment in business deals. The concentration of wealth among the elite and the commonality of bribery and extortion created stark economic inequalities that fueled public anger. ○ Egypt: Economic liberalization allowed Mubarak’s allies and family to amass wealth through lucrative privatization deals. Stories of wealth flaunted by the political elite, juxtaposed with the poverty and struggle of ordinary Egyptians, became powerful motivators for protest. ○ Libya: Muammar Gaddafi’s regime heavily controlled oil wealth, with Gaddafi and his inner circle amassing significant personal wealth. Ordinary Libyans saw little of this wealth, even though Libya was an oil-rich country. The Path to the Arab Spring (3): Authoritarianism Lack of political freedoms kept the populations under high pressure, which were bound to explode. “Mukhabarat”s and police states played a crucial role. ○ Tunisia: Ben Ali’s government suppressed political opposition and curtailed freedoms of expression, assembly, and press. Journalists and activists were often harassed, arrested, or disappeared. The regime maintained tight control over civil society, which led to a politically suffocated environment that finally erupted in 2010. ○ Egypt: Under Mubarak, the ruling National Democratic Party dominated politics, with rigged elections ensuring Mubarak’s re-election and his potential grooming of his son Gamal as successor. The limited freedom of expression and political organization left citizens with few peaceful means to seek change, pushing them toward mass protests. ○ Bahrain: In Bahrain, the Sunni ruling family controlled most political power despite a Shia majority population. Political groups that challenged the status quo, particularly among the Shia, were often persecuted. This suppression of political rights spurred large-scale protests demanding equality and more democratic representation. The Path to the Arab Spring (4): Social Media The new communication technology was highly effective in organizing the protests and facilitating solidarity. ○ Tunisia: Social media was critical in disseminating information and rallying support. Videos and posts about Bouazizi’s death spread quickly on Facebook, reaching both Tunisians and the global community. Tunisian activists used platforms like Facebook and Twitter to organize protests, circumventing the state-controlled media. ○ Egypt: Social media played a significant role in Egypt, particularly with the “We Are All Khaled Said” Facebook page. The page, created in response to the brutal death of Khaled Said at the hands of Egyptian police, gained massive traction and called for the January 25th “Day of Revolt.” Twitter and YouTube also served as tools for activists to broadcast live updates, organize rallies, and draw international attention. ○ Libya: Social media was vital in the early days of the Libyan uprising, especially as foreign media could not cover protests directly due to restrictions. Libyan activists used platforms like Facebook and Twitter to share information, coordinating protests in Benghazi that eventually spread to other parts of the country. As the conflict escalated, social media also helped to highlight atrocities and gain international support for intervention.  The element of surprise Tunisia The self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi Bouazizi's self-immolation in Sidi Bouzid became a symbol of economic despair, sparking protests leading to President Ben Ali’s ouster. Egypt The Day of Revolt on January 25, 2011 Online activists organized this day of protest against police brutality, inspired by Khaled Said's death, culminating in Mubarak’s resignation. Libya Protests in Benghazi following the arrest of The arrest of a human rights lawyer in Benghazi Fethi Tarbel sparked protests that escalated into civil war and led to Gaddafi’s eventual fall. Syria The arrest and torture of 15 schoolboys in Schoolboys inspired by other Arab Spring protests Daraa painted anti-government slogans; their arrest sparked protests that led to a civil war. Yemen Protests on February 3, 2011, during the Inspired by the success in Tunisia and Egypt, opposition Day of Rage groups called for Saleh’s ouster, leading to nationwide protests and unrest. Features (1): Mass & Peaceful Protests Egypt: Tahrir Square in Cairo became the central gathering point for millions demanding President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation. Yemen: Hundreds of thousands gathered in Sana’a and other cities during “Friday of Anger” protests, collectively calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s departure. Tunisia: The protests following Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation began peacefully, with demonstrators chanting slogans and holding signs calling for dignity, jobs, and an end to corruption. Syria: The earliest protests in Daraa were peaceful, with demonstrators calling for the release of children detained for anti-government graffiti. However, the government’s harsh response, including violence, escalated the situation into a full-blown conflict. Bahrain: Protests in Manama, especially at the Pearl Roundabout, initially sought reforms rather than regime change. The demonstrators called for more democratic rights and an end to systemic discrimination but were met with repression, leading to escalated demands. Features (2): Youth-Oriented Egypt: Young activists, particularly from the April 6 Youth Movement, were central to organizing protests. Social media-savvy youth led the charge in Tahrir Square and mobilized crowds using Facebook and Twitter. Tunisia: The high unemployment rate among Tunisian youth made them particularly motivated to protest. Young Tunisians were instrumental in organizing and maintaining momentum in protests against the Ben Ali regime. Libya: Young people in Benghazi were among the first to protest against Gaddafi. Their frustration with limited economic opportunities and political repression turned them into key players in the initial demonstrations, later evolving into armed resistance. Features (3): High Use of Social Media Egypt: The Facebook page “We Are All Khaled Said” became a powerful mobilizing tool after the death of Khaled Said at the hands of police. This page attracted massive followings and organized the “Day of Revolt” on January 25, which ignited the mass protests. Tunisia: Social media was crucial for disseminating videos and images of the protests and police violence. Platforms like Facebook and Twitter circumvented state-controlled media, spreading the word both domestically and internationally. Libya: As state media downplayed the unrest, Libyan activists turned to Twitter and YouTube to share real-time information with the world, capturing international attention and pressuring foreign governments to intervene. Features (4): “Cat and Mouse” with the Government Egypt: Protesters in Tahrir Square frequently changed gathering spots and times, keeping security forces guessing. When the police blocked certain areas, protesters found alternative routes, organizing flash protests to wear down the authorities. Syria: Protesters in cities like Homs and Damascus would quickly gather and disperse to avoid arrest, knowing the government was cracking down on organizers. Protesters adapted by organizing in neighborhoods, making it harder for authorities to stop all gatherings. Yemen: Demonstrators in Sana’a used Friday prayers as cover to organize protests, knowing it would be difficult for the government to anticipate or prevent gatherings emerging immediately afterward. They also held protests in multiple parts of the city to stretch security forces thin. Results: The Authoritarian State Returns (1) After Hosni Mubarak was ousted, Egypt held its first free elections, leading to the election of Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2012. However, Morsi’s administration faced widespread protests, leading to a military coup in 2013. General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who led the coup, later became president and has since established a regime arguably more authoritarian than Mubarak’s. The government has restricted civil liberties, repressed opposition, and increased state control over the media and judiciary. Egypt now has extensive crackdowns on dissent, with thousands of activists, journalists, and opposition members imprisoned. Results: The Authoritarian State Returns (2) Protests against Bashar al-Assad’s regime in 2011 escalated into a brutal civil war, with various factions vying for control. Assad’s government, with substantial support from allies like Russia and Iran, managed to reclaim significant territory. Assad remains in power, and his regime is more authoritarian and militarized than before. The government has used extensive violence, surveillance, and repression to maintain control, leading to a devastated country with limited freedom and autonomy. Assad’s survival reinforced the perception that authoritarian rulers could retain power through extreme repression. Results: The Authoritarian State Returns (3) Bahrain’s Shia-majority population protested against the Sunni monarchy, seeking greater political representation and equality. The government, with military support from neighboring Saudi Arabia, crushed the protests. Bahrain’s ruling family has since increased its authoritarian measures, including expanding surveillance, imprisoning activists, and dissolving opposition parties. Saudi Arabia’s intervention also signaled a regional support for maintaining authoritarian monarchies, discouraging democratic movements within the Gulf region. Results: The Authoritarian State Returns (4) After NATO-backed forces ousted Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya descended into chaos, with competing factions and militias vying for control. Rather than achieving democracy, Libya became a fractured state with no central authority. In this power vacuum, various warlords, militias, and authoritarian figures have carved out control. Attempts at creating a unified democratic government have faltered, with armed groups often undermining peace efforts. Results: The Authoritarian State Returns (5) Tunisia was the Arab Spring’s initial success story, with peaceful transitions leading to a democratic government. However, in 2021, President Kais Saied suspended parliament and assumed emergency powers, claiming he needed to address political gridlock and corruption. Saied’s consolidation of power has drawn criticism for eroding Tunisia’s democratic institutions, with opposition leaders and activists warning of a return to authoritarian rule. His actions, such as rewriting the constitution to strengthen presidential powers, have led to fears that Tunisia’s democratic gains are at serious risk. Evading the Spring Several states in the Middle East and North Africa avoided the spillover effects of the Arab Spring despite initial concerns that the movement might spread further, thanks to a combination of: ○ political strategies ○ economic reforms ○ preemptive measures Evading the Spring (1): Jordan King Abdullah II implemented a series of economic and political reforms, though relatively modest, and promised to address corruption and unemployment. He dismissed his government several times to demonstrate responsiveness, although this did not result in significant shifts in power. Jordan managed to contain the protests by allowing controlled political space and framing the monarchy as a unifying, stabilizing force in a region fraught with conflict. The monarchy’s engagement with opposition groups also helped prevent protests from escalating. Jordan’s security forces, combined with its reliance on foreign aid, particularly from the United States and Gulf states, gave the monarchy resources to maintain stability without facing significant internal pressure. Evading the Spring (2): Saudi Arabia The Saudi government, under King Abdullah at the time, responded to potential unrest by implementing a $130 billion stimulus package that included wage increases for public sector employees, unemployment benefits, and subsidies for housing. This economic strategy, along with Saudi Arabia’s extensive control over its media and strong security apparatus, kept any budding protests in check. Authorities also clamped down on dissent and protests swiftly, signaling zero tolerance for any challenge to the monarchy. Saudi Arabia’s religious leadership supported the monarchy, presenting it as a legitimate and divinely guided ruler, which bolstered public perception of the monarchy’s authority. Evading the Spring (3): Iran Iran’s government had already experienced large-scale protests during the 2009 “Green Movement,” where demonstrators protested alleged election fraud following President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s disputed re-election. The government responded with heavy crackdowns, which created a repressive environment that discouraged additional mass mobilization just a few years later. Iran’s authorities used their well-established security apparatus to preemptively stifle dissent. Additionally, the regime promoted the narrative that the Arab Spring was a result of Western meddling, framing it as a warning against foreign interference. The government also redirected public sentiment by emphasizing regional threats, such as potential Saudi influence and the presence of ISIS. Iran’s deep network of Revolutionary Guard forces and militias enabled quick crackdowns on any hint of protest, while the conservative clergy and religious institutions reinforced support for the government. Furthermore, Iran’s influence in the region (in places like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon) helped foster a sense of nationalist pride and positioned Iran as a stable regional power, discouraging internal dissent. Looking at the Future Some scholars claim that the whole story of the Arab Spring was overall a failure, the Arab “Spring” turning into some kind of “Fall” or “Autumn.” However, other arguments claim that this might be just the beginning of a set of movements, like a first wave to be followed by others if conditions don’t change.