Voting Behavior Unit 1 PDF

Voting Behavior Unit 1  Voting Behavior What is voting behavior? Why can voting behaviors change? Why is voting behavior important? The Political Spectrum  Importance of Voting Behavior To predict future politics Political scientists can identify why individua...

Voting Behavior Unit 1  Voting Behavior What is voting behavior? Why can voting behaviors change? Why is voting behavior important? The Political Spectrum  Importance of Voting Behavior To predict future politics Political scientists can identify why individuals vote for particular parties based on their voting behavior Parties can better predict who will vote for them in future elections Parties may tailor their policies and communications with the electorate based on this knowledge Voting behaviors can also highlight underlying issues in the political sphere.  Types of Voting Behavior Short-term Long term  Short Term Voting Behavior Refers to things that may affect voting behaviours for a shorter period of time These are usually in relation to a single election and do not have an effect on voting in later elections, such as the public image of a particular candidate and how they present themselves. Ed Miliband: awkward, error-prone, and incapable of performing simple tasks Single issues also have short-term effects on voting behaviours, such as the current economic crisis or upcoming referendums. Brexit and 2019 Elections  Long Term Voting Behavior Ethnicity 1. Blacks and Hispanics voting for the Democrats Geography 1. Urban vs Rural Class 1. Who votes for the Labor Party? 2. Who votes for the Conservatives?  Long Term Voting Behavior Party Loyalty Nationalism & Regional Identity Religious Influence  Factors Affecting Voting Behaviour Individual Non- Individual  Individual Factors Class Working Class vs Elites (Class Dealignment) Age Young people voting for leftists Middle aged people and older individuals voting for rightists  Individual Factors Gender Male Vote = War and Nuclear power Female Vote = Education & Health Ethnicity Why do immigrants vote for the Labor Party? Mass Immigration in the 1950s Other factors that affect voting behaviour Other non-individual factors which can affect voting behaviour include region and party policy. Region - The region a voter resides in has also proved to be an influential factor in voting behaviours and is often linked to the effects of class, which is a factor discussed above The north of England and Wales are significantly poorer than the south of England. In the south of England, there's a stronger bias towards the Conservative Party, whereas in the north a higher percentage of support for  Other factors that affect voting behaviour Party Policy - Party policies also affect voting behaviours, an individual aligns themselves with parties whose policies most cater to their own needs As well as party policies, political campaigns are also important factors that affect voting behaviours Oftentimes, political parties will focus their efforts on launching a campaign on a topic they know is important to voters or will garner a large amount of support from voters  Theories of Voting Behavior Sociological Model Main Idea: Social groups (family, class, religion, etc.) influence how people vote. Example: People from similar backgrounds often vote similarly. Key Thinker: Paul Lazarsfeld. Debate: Does group identity overshadow individual decision-making?  Theories of Voting Behavior Psychological Model (Party Identification) Main Idea: People have long-term loyalty to a political party. Example: Someone who always votes for the same party, regardless of candidates. Key Thinkers: Campbell, Converse, Miller, and Stokes. Debate: How strong is party loyalty when major issues or crises arise?  Theories of Voting Behavior Rational Choice Theory Main Idea: Voters weigh the costs and benefits to themselves before voting. Example: A voter choosing a candidate based on tax policies that benefit them. Key Thinker: Anthony Downs. Debate: Are voters really rational? What about emotions or misinformation?  Theories of Voting Behavior Retrospective Voting Main Idea: Voters base their decisions on the government’s past performance. Example: Voting out a leader after a bad economic period. Debate: Does this focus too much on the past, ignoring future potential?  Theories of Voting Behavior Prospective Voting Main Idea: Voters choose based on future promises or policies. Example: Voting for a candidate promising job creation. Debate: How do voters know if promises will be kept?  Different Electoral Systems First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) How It Works: Each voter chooses one candidate. The candidate with the most votes wins (a plurality, not necessarily a majority). Where Used: UK (general elections), USA (House of Representatives). Pros: Simple and easy to understand. Tends to produce strong, single-party governments. Cons: Can lead to "wasted votes" (votes for losing candidates don’t count). Often results in disproportionality (e.g., a party winning fewer votes but more seats). Debates: Is it fair if a party wins the most seats but not the most votes? Does FPTP exclude smaller parties?  Different Electoral Systems Single Transferable Vote (STV) How It Works: Voters rank candidates in order of preference. Candidates must reach a quota to be elected. Votes are transferred to other candidates if the voter's first choice is eliminated or already elected. Where Used: Ireland, Malta, Scottish local elections. Pros: Minimizes wasted votes. Provides proportional representation (seats reflect votes).  STV Cons: Can be complex and harder to understand. Counting process is more complicated. Debates: Is it worth the complexity for a more proportional outcome? Does it give smaller parties too much influence?  Different Electoral Systems Additional Member System (AMS) How It Works: Combines FPTP and proportional representation. Voters cast two votes: one for a constituency representative (FPTP) and one for a party (proportional representation). Some seats are filled based on FPTP, and additional seats are allocated to ensure proportionality. Where Used: Scotland, Wales, Germany. Pros: Balances constituency representation with proportionality. Gives smaller parties a better chance of winning seats.  AMS Cons: Can be confusing with two votes. May result in coalition governments, which can be less stable. Debates: Does AMS create better representation without the downsides of pure FPTP or proportional systems? Is coalition government a positive or negative outcome?  Different Electoral Systems Supplementary Vote (SV) How It Works: Voters pick a first and second preference. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, all but the top two candidates are eliminated, and second preferences are counted. Where Used: London mayoral elections. Pros: Encourages broader support, as candidates need second- preference votes. Simple for voters to understand.  Supplementary Vote Cons: Still not fully proportional. Can still result in wasted votes if no second preference is selected. Debates: Does it make elections fairer by requiring broader support? Is it fair to eliminate all but the top two candidates?