Genetically Modified Crops Presentation PDF

 Genetically Modified Genetically Crops modified (GM) crops: crops that have had their genetic material (DNA) changed in a way that does not occur naturally. GM crops were initially developed in response to growing concern about protec...

 Genetically Modified Genetically Crops modified (GM) crops: crops that have had their genetic material (DNA) changed in a way that does not occur naturally. GM crops were initially developed in response to growing concern about protecting crops from insects, unusual weather patterns, and harmful pesticides. Using genetic engineering and biotechnology, genes are transferred from one organism to another to introduce new or enhanced characteristics (traits). These biologically robust plants have better durability or nutritional value and their traits include: Pesticide (such as herbicide and insecticide) tolerance  Genetically Modified Crops The main GM crops grown commercially are herbicide and insecticide-resistant corn, soybeans, cotton, and canola. Other transgenic crops include: Sweet potato resistant to a virus that could destroy most of the African harvest Rice with increased iron and vitamins that may alleviate chronic malnutrition in Asian countries Vegetables with higher vitamin E content to help fight heart disease (antioxidant) Bananas that produce human vaccines against infectious diseases such as hepatitis B A variety of plants that are able to survive weather extremes https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=_FZewFiw7IE  Genetically Modified Crops GM crops are becoming more and more mainstream. However, there is divided public opinion about the health and environmental impacts of producing and consuming crops produced in a lab. Advantages: Genetic modification has the potential to develop crops that are resistant to a number of harmful factors like drought, disease, insects, chemicals, and other forms of stress. In turn, this reduces global hunger and improves food security by increasing crop availability. It also improves the economy by increasing crop yields. Genetic modification also has the potential to infuse existing crops with essential vitamins and minerals.  Genetically Modified Crops Disadvantages: There is so little known about the effects of GM crops on human health and the environment that their potential long- term risks may outweigh their short-term benefits. Arguments against GM crops state that: it can adversely harm human health in the form of allergic reactions and transferal of antibiotic-resistant genes from GM foods to the human body. Environmental impacts of GM crops can encompass issues such as:  Possible loss of other conventional plants, ability of a GM organism to introduce engineered genes to native fauna  Increase in the use of chemicals in agriculture (because many are resistant to pesticides) development of herbicide  Global Area of GM Crops GM crops were first commercialized in the early 1990s. The global plantation area of GM crops has been growing for more than two decades. It reached in 2020, 186 million hectares.  North America and South America accounted for 87% of the global GM crop area in 2014 (with 84.7 million and 73.3 million hectares, respectively).  They were followed by Asia (19.5 million hectares), Africa (3.3 million hectares), Oceania (0.5 million hectares), and Europe (0.1 million hectares). Today, more than 17 million farmers are planting GM crops in 30 countries  he United States had the largest area of genetically modified crops worldwide in 2019, at 71.5 million hectares, followed by Brazil with a little over 52.8 million hectares. Million hectares Statista  Global Area of GM Crops Global Area of GM Crops by Continent (1996-2014) ISAAA, Worldwatch  Growth of GM Crops In 1998, there was a rapid expansion of GM crops in the U.S. and Argentina. In the first decade of the 21st century, active growth in planted area expanded from North and South America to Asia and Africa. Then, developing countries in South America (mainly Brazil and Argentina), Asia (mainly China and India), and Africa (mainly South Africa) added a larger area than the industrial countries did. Since 2012, the developing world has been planting larger areas of GM crops than developed countries.  Growth of GM Crops Annual Added Plantation Area and Growth Rates of GM Crops (1998-2014) ISAAA, Worldwatch  Countries Growing GM Crops The largest 5 producers alone planted 89.7% of all GM crop areas on the planet. Interestingly, 6 of the 15 largest producers—are developing countries—started officially planting GM crops only within the last decade.  For example, Brazil did not officially approve the planting of GM crops until 2003.  However, Brazil is second place worldwide.  Brazil’s GM crop now mainly consists of herbicide-tolerant soybeans. Countries Growing GM Area Planted inCrops GM Crops, by Country and Share of Global Total, 2014 ISAAA, Worldwatch  Commercially Grown GM Crops In 2017, the most widely grown GM crops were:  Soybeans (90.7 million hectares)  Maize (55.2 million hectares)  Cotton (25.1 million hectares)  Canola (9 million hectares) Total land area around the world planted different genetically modified (GM) crops (2017) Other commercially planted GM crops include: Sugar beet, alfalfa, papaya, potato, squash, tomato, sweet pepper, and eggplant Insect-resistant poplar trees have been commercially planted in China.  Commercially Grown GM Crops 95% of canola in Canada, 99% of cotton in Australia, 95% of cotton in India, 99% of cotton in Argentina, over 95% of soybean in Paraguay, and 100% of soybean in Argentina are already genetically modified. Herbicide tolerance has been the dominant trait among all officially approved GM crops since 1996, accounting for nearly 60% of all GM crops. Other introduced traits include virus resistance, drought tolerance, nutrient enhancement, and market value enhancement.  Driving Forces of GM Crop Growth Financial: In 2016, the direct global farm income benefit from GM crops was $18.2 billion, equal to an average increase in income of $102/hectare. Hunger and poverty: GM crops could help alleviate hunger and poverty, but the real effect deserves closer assessment.  Instead of producing more food by improving yield—the benefit of these technologies consists of saving time and effort in farming, as well as reduced market risks for farmers.  GM technology adoption has increased farmer profits  Driving Forces of GM Crop Growth Animal feed and oil production: the high demand for animal feed (soybean and maize) and oil (canola and soybean) not just for food.  However, this raises at least two noteworthy concerns: First, from a social perspective, although the efficiency improvement may give farmers time to turn to other sources of income, it has led to loss of land and livelihoods when farmers with more assets expand to take over the land of less resourceful and less protected small farmers. Second, from an environmental perspective, the high demand on GM crops is affecting the biodiversity of fauna and flora. Genetically Modified (GM) Crop Use 1996-2020: Impacts on Carbon Emissions Graham Brookes (2022) Genetically Modified (GM) Crop Use 1996–2020: Impacts on Carbon Emissions, GM Crops & Food, 13:1, 242-261, DOI: 10.1080/21645698.2022.2118495 https://doi.org/10.1080/21645698.2022.2118495  The use of GM crops has impacted GHG emissions at a global level Over the 24 year period examined to 2020, the widespread use of GM insect-resistant & herbicide- tolerant seed technology has led to cuts in on-farm fuel use. This has led to a significant reduction in the release of GHGs from the GM cropping area. In 2020, this was equal to saving 23,631 million kg of CO2, which is equivalent to taking 15.6 million cars off the road for a year (~ 49% of the registered cars in the UK)!  The 3 main GHGs of relevance to agriculture are carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide & methane GM crops contribute to lowering levels of GHGs from 3 principle sources: 1- Reduced fuel use from fewer herbicide or insecticide applications 2- The use of “no till” & “reduced till” farming systems 3- Intensification of crop production resulting in higher crop yields  Grain Production Romy Chammas M.Sc. Fall 2024  Grains Grains are commonly referred to as ‘cereals’, and they are edible seeds. There are many types of grains:  Wheat, oats, rice, corn (maize), barley, sorghum, rye, and millet  Within these groups, there are also varieties; for example: couscous, burghul, freekeh, emmer, and spelt are all types  Grains A wholegrain is a grain that contains all the essential parts: the endosperm, germ, and bran and the naturally-occurring nutrients of the entire grain This is in contrast to refined/processed grains, which retain only the endosperm. Grains Grains  Wheat Wheat is the most widely cultivated cereal crop in the world. Wheat has become a favorite grain because of the diversity it provides in culinary applications. Flour is most commonly made from wheat, but can also be made from corn, rice, rye, and barley. Flour is then used to make a wide range of foods, including bread, pasta, muffins, noodles, biscuits, cakes, pastries, and sauces.  Oats Unique among grains, oats almost never have their bran and germ removed in processing, so most food containing oats as an ingredient are considered wholegrains. Oats are naturally rich in beta-glucan, which is a soluble fiber. Beta-glucan has been shown to improve blood glucose control after a meal, improve insulin responses, and decrease cholesterol levels. Oats also have a unique antioxidant, Avenanthramide, that helps protect blood vessels from the damaging effects of LDL cholesterol. For consumption, oats are most commonly rolled/crushed into  Rice Rice is one of the most eaten grains in the world. It is grown in over 100 countries. Rice is the staple food of 3 of the most populated regions of the world: China, India, and Indonesia. More than 100 varieties of rice are grown worldwide. White rice, basmati rice, brown rice, arborio rice (Italian), black rice, sushi rice etc… To produce white rice, the nutrient-rich bran layer is removed. Besides being eaten alone, rice is used to make rice flour (used to make rice noodles and crackers), rice bran (used as a healthy ingredient in some baked products like bread), and sake (Japanese  Corn In its immature form, corn is the familiar yellow corn on the cob. When it matures and dries out, it is used like other grains to make grain foods like breakfast cereal and tortillas. Corn is one of the world’s most important crops because it is used widely in food manufacturing. Besides being eaten on its own, corn is used to make corn starch, corn flour, breakfast cereals (cornflakes), corn OECD-FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK 2023- 2032 © OECD/FAO 2023 Chapter 3 - Cereals  Grain Production World Grain Production (1961-2012) FAO, Worldwatch  Production Over the next 10 years, the growth of cereal demand is expected to be slower than the past decade due to weaker growth in feed demand, biofuels, and other industrial uses. Moreover, in many countries direct human per capita food consumption of most cereals is approaching saturation levels. Most of the increase in food demand is linked to population growth, particularly in low and lower middle-income countries. In the next decade, global cereal production growth will be due to higher yields and more intensive use of existing arable land. The expected increase is attributed to the wider availability and adoption of new and improved seed varieties, more intense and efficient use of inputs, and improved agricultural practices.  Production Global production of cereals is projected to increase from its current level by about 320 Mt to 3.1 Bln T by 2032, largely from maize and rice. As over the past decade, the increase is expected to originate primarily in Asian countries, which will account for about 45% of global growth. Overall, 17% of global cereal production was traded internationally in 2022. However, this share varies across the different cereals ranging from 10% for rice to 25% for wheat. This ratio is expected to remain stable over the next decade  Production It is projected that world cereal trade will increase by 11%, totaling 530 Mt by 2032: Wheat will contribute to 43% of this growth, Maize: 34% Rice: 20% Other coarse grains: 3% The Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”) is projected to remain the largest wheat exporter, supplying 23% of global exports in 2032. The United States will remain the leading exporter of maize closely followed by Brazil, while the European Union will remain the main exporter of other coarse grains. Production Consumption Grain crops are mainly used for: Human consumption Animal feed Biofuels Asian countries will lead demand growth of cereals for food and feed. Cereal demand will continue to be dominated by food use, closely followed by animal feed use. In 2032, 41% of all cereals will be directly consumed by humans, while 37% will be used for animal feeds. Biofuels and other uses are projected to account for the remaining 22%. These shares, however, differ across the different cereal types. While wheat and rice is mainly used for food, feed use dominates maize and other coarse grains.  Consumption Global use of cereals is projected to increase slightly from 2.8 Bln T in the base period to 3.1 Bln t by 2032, driven mainly by higher food use (+148 Mt), followed by feed use (+130 Mt). Asian countries will account for near half of the projected demand increase. Increased global consumption of cereals for feed is expected to be dominated by maize (1.3%), followed by wheat (0.9%) and other coarse grains (0.6%) over the next decade. Wheat consumption is expected to be 11% higher in 2032 than in the base period. Four countries account for two-fifths of this increase: India, Pakistan, Egypt, and China. Global use of wheat for food is projected to increase by 57 Mt but to remain stable at about 66% of total consumption; growth will be slower compared to the previous decade as the rate of increase in world population slows down. Trade Harvest Area Since 1960, grain harvest area has increased slightly while production levels have risen dramatically. Grain production has increased 269% since 1961. However, grain harvest area has only increased 25%. The increase of production and the significantly smaller increase in harvest area are largely due to the Green Revolution and the introduction of high-yielding grain varieties.  Harvest Area World Grain Harvest Area (1961-2010) FAO, Worldwatch  Factors Affecting Grain Crops The reliance on grain crops for food security is threatened by extreme climatic events, especially droughts and floods. Around 375 million people will be affected by climate change- related disasters by 2015. By 2050, 10-20% more people will be subject to hunger based on the changing climate’s effects on agriculture and 24 million more children are expected to be malnourished (21% more than if there were no climate change).  Factors Affecting Grain Crops The drought taking place in the Midwest and Great Plains of the U.S. is considered the worst drought in 50 years, coming close to matching the late 1930s Dust Bowl. The drought is expected to cost billions of dollars and could top the list as one of the most expensive weather-related disasters in U.S. history. The global market will be most affected by this drought, because so much of the developing world relies on U.S. corn and soybean production. Food prices have already begun to increase due to lower yields, and price fluctuations will inevitably affect  The advantages of conservation tillage: - Lower fuel costs - Reduced labor requirements - Enhanced soil quality - Reduced levels of soil erosions (resulting in more carbon remaining in soil) - Improved levels of soil moisture conserving - Reduced soil temperature fluctuations Table 1. Carbon storage/sequestration from reduced fuel use with GM crops 1996–2020. Fuel saving Permanent carbon dioxide savings arising Permanent fuel savings: as average family car (million fromreduced fuel use (million kgof carbon equivalents removed fromthe road for a year C rop/trait/country liters) dioxide) (‘000s) HT soybeans Argentina 4,433 11,837 7,844 Brazil 2,749 7,341 4,865 Bolivia, Paraguay, 899 2,401 1,591 Uruguay US 1,687 4,503 2,984 Canada 255 681 451 HT maize US 2,257 6,027 3,994 Canada 121 323 214 HT canola C anada: G M H T canola 1,067 2,848 1,887 IR maize Brazil 369 984 652 US/Canada/Spain/South 91 243 161 Africa IR cotton – global 285 760 504 IR soybeans – South 449 1,199 795 America Total 14,662 39,147 25,942 Table 2. Context of carbon sequestration impact 2020: car equivalents. Additional carbon Potential additional soil carbon Soil carbon sequestration savings: as average stored in soil (million kg sequestration savings (million kgof family car equivalents removed fromthe road Crop/trait/country of carbon) carbon dioxide) for a year (‘000s) HT soybeans Argentina 1,832.5 6,725.2 4,445.8 Brazil 1,485.0 5,450.1 3,611.0 Bolivia, Paraguay, 490.7 1,800.8 1,193.1 Uruguay US 110.9 407.0 269.6 Canada 62.9 230.7 152.9 HT maize US 1,481.6 5,437.6 3,602.7 Canada 15.6 57.4 38.0 HT canola C anada: G M H T canola 270.4 992.4 657.5 IR maize Brazil 0 0 0 US/Canada/Spain/South 0 0 0 Africa IR cotton – global 0 0 0 IR soybeans – South 0 0 0 America Total 5,749.6 21,101.1 13,980.7 Food Prices Romy Chammas, M.Sc. Fall 2024  Food Prices Food prices are affected by several factors. Weather and temperature Crops are affected by the weather during their growing season: too wet, too dry, too cold, or too hot => crops cannot thrive. A scarcity or shortage of a crop may increase its price to consumers. Good growing season results in a surplus, therefore food prices may drop. Pests and disease  Food Prices Transportation costs When the price of oil and gas are high, it costs more to transport from farm to plate (for example: to the processing facility or to the store etc…) Labor costs The agri-food system requires a lot of working people ( farmers, packers, processors, and retailers.)  Other factors Political and Economical situations can influence food prices, either by increasing or decreasing them. Conflicts War Economic Crisis Inflation Import/Export Restrictions …  Global Food Prices Trends & Prospects Chapter 1: Agricultural and food markets: Trends & prospects OECD/FAO (2023), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/08801ab7-en.  Global Food Prices Continuing a decade-long increase, global food prices rose 2.7% in 2012, reaching levels not seen since the 1960s and 1970s. Between 2000 and 2012, the global food price index increased 104.5%, at an average annual rate of 6.5%.  The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) is a measure of the monthly change in international food prices. For 2023, the index recorded 124.0 points, (13.7%) lower than the average value in 2022. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiyZIFfwKmw  Global Food Prices Some price volatility (instability) is strongly influenced by weather shocks. However, the recent upward trend in food prices and volatility can be traced to additional factors including:  Climate change  Rising energy and fertilizer prices  Poor harvests  National export restrictions  Rising global food demand  Increasing demands for biofuel production  COVID-19 impact (disruptions in supply chains, labor shortages, and changes in consumer behavior) As the effects of these shocks are largely unpredictable and cannot be incorporated into the projections, prices in the Outlook are assumed to return to their long-term trends, which  Global Food Prices International food price trends vary by commodity. Global cereal and dairy prices have shown significant volatility in recent years, whereas meat prices have fluctuated less. All food categories except for sugar and sweets experienced smaller price increases through the first half of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022. All food categories increased in price in the first 6 months of 2023 compared with 2022, but the increases for meats (0.4%), fresh fruits (0.4%), fish and seafood (0.7%), and fresh vegetables (0.9%) were below their historical average price increases.  Cereal Prices Due to the ubiquity of wheat, corn, and rice in global diets, changes in the price of cereal grains generally affect consumers more than fluctuations in other foods. High cereal price volatility can have devastating consequences for the world’s poor. The food price spike, drove 44 million people into extreme poverty. High and volatile cereal prices can reduce income and increase income instability. High cereal prices are also associated with rising malnutrition as poorer people are forced to eat cheaper, less-nutritious food, as well as less quantities overall. Cereal Prices Since food prices began increasing in the early 2000s, cereal prices have jumped more than 80% and exhibited significant volatility due to unfavourable weather conditions, including severe drought in the U.S. and Eastern Europe, drove cereal prices up. The grain price spike continues due to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and prices  Monthly prices for wheat, maize and barley In 2022, the world wheat price averaged USD 319/t, the highest recorded in the past 20 years. Prices increased sharply when Russia’s war against Ukraine started in February and remained high for several months mainly driven by the uncertainty about supplies to international markets. With increased seasonal supplies from harvests in the northern hemisphere and an agreement reached on the Black Sea Grain Initiative, prices started to fall before the agreement was signed in late July 2022. By early 2023, international wheat prices had fallen to their pre-war levels but remain elevated.  Cereal Prices As cereal prices revert to their projected long-term trend, the co-movement of wheat and rice prices will maintain or return to their historic ratio. Prices for cereals in real terms are expected to decline over the next decade FAO Cereal Price Index stood at 130.9 points in 2023, down 23.8 points (15.4 percent) from the 2022 record annual average, reflecting well supplied global markets.  Cereals in Lebanon? The silos, which were hit by the blast and then gradually collapsed, had the capacity for 120,000 tons of wheat and grains used to hold enough reserves for 6 – 12 months. As a result, Lebanon is now unable to import large quantities of wheat as it has nowhere to store it, posing a growing threat to Lebanon’s food security. The reconstruction of the silos costs $10 billion After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the nation agreed deals with Romania, Turkey and Egypt to help meet its demand. WFP, August 2020  Meat Prices Global meat prices have fluctuated less than cereal prices. Meat prices increased slightly (5.5%) between July 2012 and January 2013 due to higher grain, and thus animal feed prices. Beef prices, are less affected by cereal prices, since most global beef production is pasture-based. Pig meat and poultry prices show a strong link to feed costs as their production uses more grain and protein meal-based feed. Meat prices rebounded in 2021 and 2022, reflecting higher demand following the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as well as increased transportation and marketing costs.  Medium-term evolution of animal-based commodity prices, in real terms The FAO meat price index rose to average 118.8 in 2022, an increase of 10% from the previous year. But In 2023, the FAO Meat Price Index averaged 114.6 points, down 4.2 points (3.5 percent) from 2022, due to increased export availabilities from leading exporting regions. As markets recover from these disruptions, supply chains stabilize, feed costs decrease, consumer spending on meat in middle-income countries resumes, prices are expected to return to their long-term trend decline in real terms over the next decade. Pig meat prices are expected to decline more than prices for other meats due to the recovery following the ASF (ASF: African Swine Fever) outbreak, especially in China, Viet Nam, and the Philippines.  Dairy Prices International dairy prices exhibited significant volatility, more than doubled in the period of 2006-2013 compared to those between 1990-2005. Total dairy trade increased, and per capita dairy consumption increased as well. Higher international prices in 2021 and 2022 were driven by: small trade share, the dominance of a few exporters, and a widely restrictive trade policy environment The international market remains sensitive to sudden changes in milk production because of low government stores in the European Union and U.S.  Dairy price ratios International dairy prices are expected to fall in the short-term and return to the longer-term pre-COVID-19 trend as supply chain disruptions ease and marginal costs decline. In 2023, the FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 118.8 points, down 23.6 points (16.6 percent) below the average for 2022, supported by lesser import demand, reflecting price declines across all dairy products.  Factors Affecting Global Food Prices The level and volatility of food prices in the last decade have been influenced by various forces affecting global food supply and demand.  Population growth and increasing affluence –predominantly in Asia– have led to rising food demand since 2000, which in turn has triggered higher global food prices. Between 2000 and 2010, Asia’s population grew 12%, from 3.7 billion to 4.2 billion people. Asians accounted for 60% of the world’s population in 2023. Meanwhile, salaries nearly doubled in Asia from 2000 to 2011. However, salaries increased only 18% in Africa and 15% in Latin America and the Caribbean.  Factors Affecting Global Food Prices  Rising energy and fertilizer prices drove up food prices as well.  They added the costs of production, processing, transportation and storage. The average price of energy during 2000-2012 was 183.6% higher than the average price during 1990-1999, while the average price of fertilizer increased 104.8% in the same period.  Biofuels Perhaps one of the most significant factors affecting global food prices has been an increase in biofuel production in the last decade. Biofuels are produced through modern biological processes like agriculture. This is in contrast to the fuel produced by geological processes which form fossil fuels (like petroleum and coal) from decomposed plants and animals that have been buried in the ground for millions of years. When the source of the biofuel can regrow quickly, biofuels are considered a form of renewable energy (unlike fossil fuels).  Biofuels Biofuels have been around for a very long time. At the start of the 20th century, Henry Ford planned to fuel his Model T with ethanol, and early diesel engines were shown to run on peanut oil. However, discoveries of huge petroleum deposits kept gasoline and diesel cheap for decades, and biofuels were largely forgotten. With the recent rise in oil prices, along with growing concern about global warming caused by carbon dioxide emissions, biofuels have been regaining popularity. Much of the gasoline in the U.S. is blended with a biofuel:  Biofuels and Global Food Prices Using food crops for fuel (demand for biofuels) has led to an increase in global food prices due to a significantly high demand for some agricultural commodities. The high demand for some agricultural commodities, such as sugar, maize, oilseeds and palm oil, has the potential to affect food security at both the national and household levels mainly through its impact on food prices. There has been a surge in the production of biofuels in Europe and the U.S. since the early 2000s, backed by policies designed to cut use of fossil fuels. An estimated 93 million tons of wheat and coarse grains, more than half of their production, were used for ethanol production in 2007, double the level used in 2005. If biofuel production continues to expand, the price of biofuel crops (particularly maize, oilseed crops, and sugar cane) will continue to increase.  Biofuels and Global Food Prices Not only is biofuel production leading to rising food prices, but there is also an association between biofuel production and deforestation (removal of trees). Agriculture is the largest cause of deforestation. The removal of trees without sufficient reforestation has resulted in damage to habitat, biodiversity loss, extinction of species, climatic change, and dryness. Deforestation also has adverse impacts on the biosequestration of carbon dioxide.  Biofuels and Global Food Prices Due to the negative impacts associated with biofuels, the European Union agreed to limit the use of food-based biofuels at 7% in 2015. A new research study has shown that if the European Union cut the use of biofuels to zero, then global vegetable oils would be 8% cheaper by 2030. Cutting the use of biofuels would lead to modest reductions in global food prices, global poverty rates, and net global welfare improvements.  Conclusion Food commodity prices were both higher and more volatile in the last decade. Food prices were driven up by climate change, extreme weather events, production shocks, population growth, increasing global affluence, and higher agriculture and energy cost. In recent years, recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, tight global supplies because of higher production costs and Russia’s war against Ukraine reduced harvests of key crops. Therefore, the high food prices tend to aggravate poverty, food insecurity & malnutrition. POPULATION GROWTH Romy Chammas, M.Sc. Fall 2024-2025 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m RcxGJcBDVo  Population Population: number of people or inhabitants in a particular region or country Population growth is measured by the difference between the number of births and number of deaths. Population Global population growth: Every year, approximately 141 million people are born and approximately 57 million people die. Therefore, around 84 million people are being added to the world population every year. Population The main factors that affect population growth are Health (which Fertilit in turn affects y death) Population Health has improved over the long run, resulting in a dramatic decline in mortality rates in the world. As for fertility, socio-economic changes over the course of modernization have contributed to a significant reduction in fertility. Decline in child mortality Changes in the economy Education Availability of contraception Rise in the status of and opportunities for women Developed countries tend to have lower fertility rates than developing countries Population Up to that point, birth Beginning in the late and death rates had 1700s, death rates been relatively equal, started to decline. regardless of location. A greater number of people lived through their adolescent years, increasing the average life expectancy and creating a new trajectory for population growth. Life Expectancy Estimates suggest that in a pre-modern, poor world, life expectancy was around 30 years in all regions of the world. In the 19th century, life expectancy started to increase in the early industrialized countries while it stayed low in the rest of the world. Factors that contributed to the increase in life expectancy: Advancements in health and sanitation New technologies in agriculture and production Over the past 300 years, changes in the birth and death rates have resulted in changes in population demographics within a country. Life Expectancy Life Expectancy Globally and by World Regions (1770-2015) James Riley For Data 1990 And Earlier; WHO and World Bank For  Demographic Transition Demographic transition is the model that explains the changing size of the total population as driven by two demographic characteristics –birth rate and death rate– of the population. As these rates change in relation to each other, their produced impact greatly affects a country’s total population. Within this model, a country will progress from one stage to the next over time as certain social and economic forces affect the birth and death rates. Every country can be placed within the demographic transition model, but not every stage has a country that meets its specific definition.  For example, there are currently no countries in Stage 1.  There are arguably few countries, if any, in Stage 5, but there is potential for reaching this stage in the future. General note: A decline in death rate is followed by a  Demographic Transition Stage Long ago, the birth rate was high, but the death rate was also 1 high. Population size remained fairly stable. This describes the reality throughout most of history. Societies around the world remained in stage 1 for thousands of years. Stage With the introduction of modern medicine, health slowly starts 2 to improve, so the death rate starts dropping. However, fertility still remains as high as before. Families do not yet adapt their fertility to the low mortality and continue to have many children. Therefore, the population grows rapidly. Stage Fertility declines steeply as a result of socio-economic changes, 3 and parents realize that the mortality of children is not as high as it once was, opting for fewer births. Therefore, population growth continues, but at a slower rate. Stage The birth and death rates are both low. These countries tend to 4 have stronger economies, higher levels of education, better health care, a higher proportion of working women, and a low fertility rate. The result is a stable population. Stage What happens at a very high level of socio-economic modernization 5 is still not clear. It is assumed that fertility will start to rise again (but Demographic Transition Impact of population aging on food security in the context of artificial intelligence: Evidence from China Chien-Chiang Lee, Jingyang Yan, Fuhao Wang (Technological Forecasting and Social Change Volume 199, February 2024, 123062) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.123062 Population Growth In the years following World War II, population grew fairly rapidly, with a rate of growth that peaked in the late 1960s at 2.1% per year. Since then, population growth has gradually slowed, and the number of people added annually has changed little. Every year sees the addition of about 84 million humans on the planet. Population Growth World Population (1950-2014) UNPD, Worldwatch Institute Population Growth Annual Growth Rate of World Population (1950-2014) UNPD, Worldwatch Institute  Population Growth Having nearly tripled from 2.5 billion people in 1950 to 7.3 billion in 2014, the human population will continue to grow through 2070, according to two recent demographic projections. After that, depending on which of the two projections more accurately forecasts the future, the human population will either:  Continue to grow into the next century  Begin to shrink Population Growth The two population projections The other from the One from the United International Institute for Nations Population Applied Systems Analysis Division (UNPD) (IIASA)  Both agree on how population has grown until now  However, their future scenarios about population growth are different Population Growth World Population to 2100, Two Projections UNPD, Wittgenstein Centre, Worldwatch Institute Population Growth The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) demographers used probabilistic projections, a methodology that applies past behavior and expert opinion about the future to assign quantified probabilities to various population outcomes. Based on this, in 2014, they claimed that there was an 80% likelihood that the world population would grow from 7.3 billion people to approximately 10.9 billion people in 2100. The U.N. analysts reported that the most likely long-term future is for continued growth into the 22nd century. Population Growth Demographers with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), had an opposing opinion. They have long used the probabilistic methodology, and foresee the world population peaking around 2070 at 9.4 billion people and then gradually shrinking to 8.9 billion by the century’s end.  Population Growth What explains the disagreement between these two respected groups of population projectors?  Different assumptions, revolving mostly around two topics: the African population and the future of education The U.N. demographers stressed that recent surveys have shown that human fertility is not falling in a number of countries as earlier projections had assumed they would. Most of these countries are in Africa, and the UNPD significantly increased its earlier projections for that continent’s population. The new probabilistic projections gave an 80% chance that the African population will rise from 1.2 billion today to somewhere between 3.5-5.1 billion by 2100.  Population Growth The IIASA demographers, by contrast, focused not on recent fertility trends, but rather more on educational ones. In every region of the world, including Africa, there are larger proportions of young people enrolled in school, and these rates are likely to continue to rise. Since high levels of education are associated with reductions in fertility, the demographers reasoned that fertility, even in high-fertility countries, is likely to fall more than current fertility trends. This different focus led in particular to opposing projected paths for the population in Africa, with the IIASA projecting a population of 2.6 billion by 2100 (in contrast to 3.5-5.1 billion projected by the UNPD). Population Growth Africa’s Population to 2100, Two Projections UNPD, Wittgenstein Centre, Worldwatch Institute Population Growth The differences in the two groups’ projections for other world regions are less dramatic. Since education levels are already fairly high in the other world regions, fertility has already fallen considerably in recent decades in the rest of the world. Therefore, there is less division on where population in those regions is likely to go. Population Growth The two groups’ best-guess projection for the population in 2100 in the world’s major regions are as follows: For Asia, the UNPD projects 4.7 billion people in 2100, while IIASA projects 4.4 billion. For Europe, UNPD projects 639 million, while IIASA projects 702 million. For North America, UNPD expects 513 million, while IIASA projects 520 million. For South America and the Caribbean, UNPD projects 736 million, and IIASA expects 684 million. Modern Challenges in Water, Nutrition & Climate Change Romy Chammas - MSc. Fall 2024 - 2025  Introduction Nowadays, there are many challenges facing society that affect people’s health and lives: Water availability and quality Greenhouse gas emissions Food wasting Malnutrition  Water- Where is All the Water? Most of the water on earth is salty water: 97.5%. The remaining 2.5% is fresh water ( farming, industry, at home, for drinking, washing and watering). However, 70% of fresh water is frozen (mostly as ice in Antarctica), and nearly 30% is found underground (too expensive to tap into and filter.) That leaves only around 1% of all the fresh water on Earth to use to grow crops, raise animals, power industry, and use at home Where is All the Water? Water in the Human Body  Water Issues There is a lot of water in the food we eat (embodied water). For example: it takes approximately 25,000 L (half a garden swimming pool) to produce enough food for a family of 4 for one day. More than 2 billion people do not have access to clean drinking water. Many people walk at least 2 hours a day to get water. Water in Lebanon One of the most precious resources in Lebanon. Key obstacles:  Increasing water demand from all sectors  Unsustainable water management practices  Water pollution Meeting the country’s water demand poses a significant challenge to the government. To meet the domestic water demand in 2030, Lebanon will have to supply 420 million m3 compared to the 280 million m3 supplied in 2005.  Water in Lebanon The driving forces affecting the quality and quantity of water resources in Lebanon are:  Population growth  Urbanization  Economic growth  Climate change Water in Lebanon Population growth World Data.info  Water in Lebanon 1. Population growth: In assessing water resources, it is important to consider the total population in Lebanon (including refugees) and not just the resident population to capture the full impact on water resources. Further pressure on water resources comes from tourism. According to the Ministry of Tourism, 1.35 million visitors came to Lebanon in 2023. Tourists consume more water than residents (400 L/c/d for tourists compared to 150 L/c/d for residents) but over a short time period. Water in Lebanon 2. Urbanization: Lebanon is a heavily urbanized country, with 88% of the population living in urban areas. It is estimated that Lebanon’s urban areas will grow by 10 km2 per year over the next 30 years which will stress water resources. The growing urbanization has also resulted in increased levels of untreated wastewater and solid waste, particularly in the coastal region, leading to untreated  Water in Lebanon 3. Economic growth: Lebanon’s economical development has been the main driver of urbanization in the country across the years. During the 19th century, Lebanon was largely an agrarian country. Throughout the 20th century, the contribution of the services sector to overall economic growth increased in Beirut and the other major cities in Lebanon. The main drivers of this growth were construction & reconstruction, tourism, and banking.  Water in Lebanon 3. Economic growth The agricultural sector continues to be the largest water consumer in the country. About 60% of total freshwater goes to agriculture. As a result of the pattern of economic growth, agricultural demand on water resources will grow by 1% per year over the next 20 years, while domestic and industrial  Water in Lebanon 4. Climate change: Global warming affects precipitation. This will be reflected in changes in freshwater availability and quality. Some studies argue that Lebanon is witnessing signs of decreasing precipitation and increasing drought and desertification. There is a clear trend and a substantial decline in precipitation between 1966 and 2005. Precipitat ion (mm) Year Shaban Water in Lebanon 4. Climate change: As most climate experts predict, the dry areas will become drier as the earth continues to warm up. The Litani River basin is going to see less rain in the future, which will have a substantial impact on water resources for irrigation because the Litani River is the lifeline for agriculture in the Bekaa and South Lebanon. Moreover, snow coverage and density have been declining. The effect of global warming on snow, which is vital for water resources in Lebanon, is devastating. It is predicted that with a rise of 2°C, the snow cover in the  Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere and make the planet warmer (global warming). The main greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and water vapor (H2O gas). Human activities are responsible for almost all of the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the last 150 years. Greenhouse Gases  Greenhouse Gases- CO2 Emission Carbon dioxide (CO2) is released through the natural respiration and volcanic eruptions. It also enters the atmosphere through human activities.  Burning fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and oil), solid waste, trees and wood products  Manufacturing cement The increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is the most important ‘force’ of climate change. CO2 is removed from the atmosphere when it is absorbed by plants as part of the biological Greenhouse Gases- CO2 Emission  Greenhouse Gases and Global Warming The consequences of the greenhouse gas effect are difficult to predict, but certain events seem likely: On average, the Earth will become warmer. Some regions may welcome warmer temperatures, but others may not. Warmer conditions will probably lead to more evaporation and precipitation overall, but individual regions will vary, some becoming wetter and others dryer. A stronger greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and partially melt glaciers and ice, increasing sea level. Ocean water will also expand if it warms, contributing further to sea level rise. Higher temperatures and shifting climate patterns may  Food Wastage “Are we feeding the hungry or feeding the waste?” Food inequality is a key social problem. Rich and wealthy have the freedom to discard excess food into the trash bins, the same amount of food wasted (1.3 billion tons lost annually) can feed the malnourished 4 times! A statistical report revealed that around 828 million people worldwide suffer from hunger and malnutrition (2024 UN World Hunger Report), translating to 1 in 9 people suffering from malnourishment, with the main sufferers being children. Theoretically, this phenomenon can be avoided with equal distribution of food, where excess doesn’t end up in landfills, but feed hungry people. Obesity Overweight and obesity cause a number of chronic health problems: diabetes, high blood pressure, heart attacks, stroke, breathing problems (sleep apnea), osteoarthritis, and cancer. Their rates are increasing worldwide and leading to a rising number of deaths. About 2.2 billion people around the world are either overweight or obese. According to 2017–2018 data from the National Health &Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) Global obesity rates have almost tripled while overweight has more than doubled since 1975. From 1999 –2000, US obesity prevalence increased from 30.5% to 41.9%.  Obesity The fundamental cause of obesity and overweight is an energy imbalance between calories consumed and calories expended. Globally, there has been:  Increased intake of energy-dense foods that are high in fat Obesity Ng. et al.  Malnutrition is Costly Malnutrition results from either nutrient deficiency/undernutrition (wasting, stunting, underweight) or overconsumption (overweight or obesity). Malnutrition also impact the social and economical development of countries It is estimated that malnutrition in all its forms could cost society up to $3.5 trillion per year, with overweight and obesity alone costing $500 billion per year. Undernutrition costs the global economy $1.4-2.1 trillion per year and explains around 45% of deaths among children under the age of 5. Malnutrition is Costly Food Security & Sustainability -Introduction- Romy Chammas MSc. Fall 2024- 2025 Where does food come from?  Food Security Availability and adequate access to sufficient, affordable, safe, nutritious food at all times in order to maintain a healthy and active life. Food security analysts look at 3 main elements: Food availability: available in sufficient quantities and on a consistent basis. This includes stock and production in a given area and the capacity to bring in food from elsewhere. Food access: People must be able to regularly obtain adequate quantities of food, whether through purchase, home production, trade etc... Food utilization: Consumed food must have a positive  Food Sustainability A system that delivers food and nutrition security for all in such a way that it enhances the environmental, economic, and social health of a particular place. Moreover, the environmental, economic, and social bases to generate food security for future generations are not compromised. Sustainable agriculture is regenerative and self-sustaining. It produces its own inputs (fertilizer, feed) and manages its outputs (crop, waste, manure) in a closed loop cycle. It contributes to soil fertility, clean water systems, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, rather than depleting them. A sustainable food system is climate-smart and simultaneously increases agricultural productivity, enhances climate resilience, and reduces greenhouse gases in agriculture. Future Challenges for Feeding the World World Projected Acreage Under Population Caloric Cultivation (Billions of Consumption (Billions of Acres) People) (Trillions Kcal/d) 4 3 3.4 3.56 27 3. 0 4 3.6 5 2 20 3 5 14 2. 2 5 0 2 1 1. 5 5 1 1990 2015 1 1960 1990 0 2050 0. 2000 5 5 0 0  Despite Progress, Many Remain Hungry 35 0 30 0 1990-1992 People (Millions) 25 Increasing 2014- 2016 Malnourished 0 Number of 20 0 15 0 Increasing 10 5 00 0 South SSA SE LAC MENA Asia Asia Prevalence of hunger declined from 19% to 11% (1990-2015). According to the latest research by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 828 million people are hungry in the world. FAO  Zero Hunger Challenge The Zero Hunger Challenge was launched by United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in 2012. Part of the 2030 Agenda It reflects 5 elements, which taken together, can end hunger, eliminate all forms of malnutrition, and build food systems. Pathways to Zero Hunger, Zero Hunger Challenge,  Zero Hunger Challenge How is the 2030 Agenda implemented? In September 2015, the 193 Member States of the United Nations adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a set of 17 aspirational objectives which will guide the actions of governments, international agencies, civil society and other institutions over the next 15 years (2016- 2030). The ambitious 2030 Agenda is a global vision for people, for the planet, and for long-term prosperity. The 17 SDGs integrate the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social and environmental – with closely interwoven targets. The SDGs are universal for all countries. The 2030 Agenda is as relevant to developed & to developing nations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Be_790O8AlU Zero Hunger Challenge, United Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Ensure inclusive and End poverty in all its quality education for all forms everywhere. and promote lifelong Almost 80% of poor learning. people live in rural areas. Nutritious food is critical to learning. End hunger, achieve food security and enhanced Achieve gender equality and nutrition, and empower all women and promote girls. Women produce 1/2 sustainable the world’s food but have agriculture. much less access to land. We produce food for everyone, yet Ensure access to water and almost 800 million sanitation for all. go hungry. Sustainable agriculture Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Ensure access to Land reforms can affordable, reliable give fairer access and sustainable to rural land. energy for all. Modern food systems are heavily dependent on fossil Make cities fuels. inclusive, safe, resilient and Agricultural growth in sustainable. low- income Rural investment economies can can prevent reduce poverty by unmanageable half. urbanization. Build resilient infrastructure, Ensure promote sustainable sustainable industrialization and consumption Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Take urgent action to Promote just and combat climate peaceful change and its impacts. societies. Agriculture is key in Ending hunger can responding to climate contribute greatly to change. peace and stability. Revitalize the global Conserve and partnership for sustainably use the sustainable oceans, seas and development. marine resources. Partnerships help Fish gives 3 billion raise the voice of people 20% of their the hungry. daily animal protein. Sustainably manage forests, SDG 2: End Hunger and Malnutrition End hunger, achieve food security and enhanced nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture. We produce food for everyone, yet around 800 million people go hungry.  SDG 2: End Hunger and Malnutrition SDG 2 aims to end hunger and all forms of malnutrition by 2030. It also commits to universal access to safe, nutritious, and sufficient food at all times of the year. This will require:  Sustainable food production systems  Equal access to land  Markets and international cooperation  Technology to boost agricultural productivity  SDG 2: End Hunger and Malnutrition The fight against hunger has progressed over the past 15 years. Globally, the prevalence of hunger has declined, from 15% according to figures for 2000-2002, to 11% according to figures for 2014-2016. However, over 828 million people worldwide remain hungry and lack regular access to adequate amounts of dietary energy. If current trends continue, the ‘zero hunger’ target will be largely missed by 2030.  SDG 2: End Hunger and Malnutrition Globally, in 2024, nearly 1 in 3 children under the age of 5 (> 159 million children) had stunted growth. Stunting: Inadequate height for age An indicator of the cumulative effects of undernutrition and Infection Another aspect of child malnutrition is the growing amount of children who are overweight, a problem affecting nearly every region.  Conclusion Ending hunger and malnutrition relies heavily on sustainable food production systems and resilient agricultural practices. A sustainable food system also increases agricultural productivity and improves climate resilience. Organic Agriculture Romy Chammas MSc. Fall 2024 Why Organic? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lRy XlvIJFWI  Organic Agriculture Organic agriculture is a sustainable farming system that produces healthy crops and livestock without damaging the environment. This system relies on ecosystem management rather than external agricultural inputs. Organic agriculture considers potential environmental and social impacts by eliminating the use of synthetic inputs, such as: Synthetic fertilizers & pesticides, veterinary drugs, genetically modified seeds and breeds, preservatives, and irradiation.  Organic Agriculture There are few research studies that examine the effect of organic agriculture on human health. However, there are many studies that have shown the heavy negative impacts of non-organic food and conventional farming on human health.  Pesticides Pesticides are chemical substances that are meant to kill pests, which are insects or other organisms that are harmful to cultivated plants or animals. Most pesticides are intended to serve as crop protection products, which in general, protect plants from weeds, fungi, insects, or other pests that feed on crops. Pesticides can be grouped according to the types of pests they kill: Insecticides: kill insects Herbicides: kill plants (weed- herbs) Fungicides: kill fungi Bactericides: kill bacteria Rodenticides: kill rodents (rats and mice) Larvicides: kill larvae  Pesticid es Although pesticides protect crops, they could cause serious harm to human health. DDT is carcinogenic and was banned in the U.S. in 1973. There are over 400 chemical pesticides that are regularly used in conventional farming. Some crops are sprayed up to 16 times with 36 different pesticides.  Pesticide s Organophosphates The most dangerous and the most widely used. They account for about ½ of the pesticides used in the U.S. Cheap cost and broad spectrum of uses Almost 30,000 tons are applied annually Very poisonous and were used in World War II as nerve agents Headache, dizziness, muscle twitches, nausea, stomach pain, weakness, shortness of breath, anxiety, diarrhea, convulsion, coma  Pesticides Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals (EDCs) A number of pesticides are suspected or proved to act as endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs); EDCs interfere with the steps of hormone signaling. They may affect genes in a way similar to estrogen and have been also known as “gender benders.” Even small doses can affect the sexual characteristics of animals. EDCs have been suspected to be associated with altered reproductive function in males and females, increased incidence of breast cancer, abnormal growth patterns,  Environmental Impact- Water In addition to the harmful Pollution effects of chemically-infused crops on human health, non-organic conventional farming has harmful impacts on the environment. Conventional agriculture is the largest source of water pollutants (pesticides & fertilizers) Pesticides from every chemical class have been detected in groundwater and especially beneath agricultural areas. They are also widespread in the surface waters Eutrophication and “dead zones” due to nutrient runoff affect many rivers, lakes, and oceans. Reduced water quality impacts agricultural production,  Environmental Impact- Climate Change Synthetic fertilizers used in conventional agriculture produce more greenhouse gases, contributing to global warming. Conventional agriculture relies on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, whose production results in the release of nitrous oxide, an extremely potent greenhouse gas, with a much greater warming potential per unit released than carbon. Organic farming fights climate change by:  Reducing greenhouse gas emissions  and traps temperature-raising carbon in soil, keeping it from contributing to the greenhouse effect.  Environmental Impact- Climate Change Soil from organic farms is 26% better at retaining carbon (for longer periods of time) than soil that's farmed with conventional methods and synthetic fertilizers. Reason: The matter that organic farmers use (compost, green manure, animal matter… as well as the living things in healthy soil, such as microorganisms, earthworms, and other components— give soil humic acids. Humic acids provide the soil with the ability to retain carbon over the long-term better than conventionally farmed soil. Organically farmed soil contains 44% more humic Environmental Impact- Climate Change Organic farming not only acts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but it actually acts as a sink for carbon by sequestering CO2.  If all U.K. farming was converted to organic, at least 1.3 million tons of carbon would be taken up by the soil each year. That’s the equivalent of taking nearly 1 million cars off the road! Moreover, organic agriculture uses up to 50% less fossil fuel energy than conventional farming. Common organic practices—including rotating crops, applying mulch to empty fields, cover cropping and maintaining trees on farms—also stabilize soils and Cover cropping Composting Mulching  Organic Agriculture and Biodiversity Organic farming is beneficial for wildlife and biodiversity. Organic farms have 30% more species on average than non- organic ones. This greater biodiversity includes birds, insects, plants, and microbes. The use of pesticides has threatened wildlife and biodiversity.  For example, vast numbers of insects, including helpful  Organic Livestock Production Livestock are a major contributing factor to the success of organic agriculture. They play an important role in maintaining the fertility of grasslands. They feed on home-grown organic feed and their manure is returned to the crops around the farm (same land that produces the feed). A system involving grassland and livestock is likely to be the most sustainable system of organic production. Animal husbandry stabilizes the agro-ecological system.  Organic Livestock Production Organic livestock are fed organically produced grass and meals. Livestock must have access to free range exercise area and grazing (maximum access to pasture). Genetically modified organisms and crops are not compatible with organic production. Chemically synthesized medication is not permitted for use on the livestock, but sick and injured animals must be treated immediately because the well-being of the animal is more important than keeping the animal organic. Animal housing satisfies the needs of the animals, including  Organic Livestock Production In non-organic agriculture, antibiotics are added to the animal feed or drinking water of livestock to prevent infection/disease, to help them gain weight faster (speed up animal growth) or use less food to gain weight. The use of antibiotics in livestock can bring antibiotic-resistant bacteria to humans via consumption of meat and through airborne bacteria. Antibiotics are also sprayed onto fruit trees to prevent and treat infection. Traces of antibiotics that remain after the initial spraying may encourage emergence of resistant strains of bacteria.  Non-Organic, Conventional Agriculture Advantages of conventional, non-organic farming: Lesser costs, higher gains Unlike organic farmers, who use compost and animal manure which are expensive to ship, conventional farmers use synthetic chemical fertilizers and sewage sludge that are cheaper. Also, they can make use of a larger area of land to plant their crops. Increase in food production Since production costs of conventional farming are lower, farmers are able to produce more crops and as a result, meet the growing demand for food supply. Conventional farming produces larger quantities of food as  Non-Organic, Conventional Agriculture (Cont’d) Advantages of conventional, non-organic farming: Lower costs of produce Because of low production costs, conventional farmers are able to mass-produce their crops and sell them to consumers at lower prices. As an effect, there are more choices for the buying public because competitors are urged to lower their prices to be competitive. This becomes a win-win situation for both the farmers and the consumers.  The World of Organic Agriculture Statistics and Emerging Trends 2023 Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL and IFOAM – Organics International Edited by Helga Willer, Bernhard Schlatter, and Jan Trávníček  Global Organic Production The modern organic farming movement emerged in the 1950s-1960s, largely as a reaction to consumer concerns over the use of agrochemicals. The period after World War II and through the 1950s is commonly known as the “Golden age of pesticides” because the use of agricultural chemicals was widespread and their effects were largely unknown. As the health and ecological consequences of agrochemicals began to be understood, governments started to regulate their use and consumers started to demand organically certified foods  Global Organic Production The latest available data on organic agriculture worldwide show that 2021 was another good year for global organic agriculture. Organic farmland and retail sales continued to grow and reached another all-time high. In 2021, the global organic production area amounted to approximately 76.4 million hectares. This constitutes an increase of almost 40 million hectares in 10 years. Global Organic Production  Global Organic Production More than 76.4 million hectares of organic farmland in 2021: The regions with the largest organic agricultural land areas are: -Oceania (36 million hectares – almost half the world’s organic agricultural land, 47%), - Australia (35.7 million hectares), - Europe (17.8 million hectares, 23%), - Latin America had 9.9 million hectares (13%), - Asia (6.5 million hectares, 8.5%), - Argentina (4.1 million hectares), - Northern America (3.5 million hectares, 4.6%), - France (2.8 million hectares), - Africa (2.7 million hectares, 3.5%)  Global Organic Farming Organic Agricultural Land by Region (1999-2010) Willer and Kilcher, The World of Organic Global Organic Production Global Organic Production Organic Agricultural Land by Region (2021) Global Organic Production Organic Agricultural Land by Country (2021)  Global Organic Production In 2021, 1.6% of the world’s agricultural land was organic. The highest organic shares of the total agricultural land were in Oceania (9.7%) and in Europe (3.6%; EU: 9.6%). There were at least 3.7 million organic producers in 2021. 49% of the world’s organic producers are in Asia, followed by Africa (31%), Europe (12%), and Latin America (8%). The countries with the most producers are India (1,599,010), Uganda (404,246), and Ethiopia (218,175). There has been an increase in the number of producers of more than 170,000, or 4.9%, compared to 2020. In 2022, 74 countries had fully implemented regulations on organic agriculture.  Global Organic Food Sales Organic food sales reached nearly 125 billion euros in 2021. The countries with the largest organic markets were the United States (48.6 billion euros), Germany (15.9 billion euros), and France (12.7 billion euros). Growth in the global market for organic food slowed in 2021. Geopolitical conflicts and rising food prices exerted a negative impact on the global organic food market. After reporting record sales in 2020, market growth slowed in 2021. Lower growth is projected for 2022 as consumer demand weakens. Inflation, especially high food prices, and food security concerns are affecting demand for organic foods. The European market has been the most adversely affected. Organic Agriculture: Key Indicators FiBL survey 2023, based on national data sources, data from certifiers and IFOAM – Organics International Organic Agriculture: Key Indicators FiBL survey 2023, based on national data sources, data from certifiers and IFOAM – Organics International Organic Agriculture Globally FiBL survey 2023  Organic Farming Sustainable agricultural practices of organic farming are relatively labor-intensive and have the potential to contribute to long-term employment in rural areas. Approximately 80% of the global organic farmers live in developing countries.  Organic Farming While organic agriculture often produces lower yields, it can outperform conventional practices—especially in times of drought—when the land has been farmed organically for a longer time. Conventional agricultural practices often degrade the environment over both the long-term and the short-term through excessive water use, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss. However, increased yields alone in conventional farming are not meeting the needs of people around the world. Globally, approximately 1 billion people suffer from food insecurity—due to issues of distribution, individual purchasing power, storage, refrigeration, and market access, among others— with sub-Saharan Africa being the region most affected  Organic Farming Organic farming also reduces vulnerability to climate change and enhances biodiversity. Organic farming in Africa is now being recognized as a way to address problems of food insecurity and climate change. Organic farming is being used to restore soils, which in turn has resulted in higher food crop yields, greater household food security, and increased incomes. A combination of traditional and organic farming techniques have allowed farmers in Burkina Faso to adapt to climate change and build resilience to weather shocks.  Organic Farming In Ethiopia, organic farming methods have helped farmers use water more efficiently and restore soil health to better withstand harsh weather conditions like drought, while increasing crop yields and improving food security. In Cambodia, on the other hand, negative impacts of conventional farming systems on the environment and on farmers have resulted in widespread conversion to organic agriculture. Health indicators, such as a large reduction in pesticide poisoning-related symptoms, improved among Cambodian farmers who adopted organic techniques. In Conclusion Organic agriculture is a production system that relies on ecological processes rather than the use of synthetic inputs, such as chemical fertilizers and pesticides. It promotes biodiversity, biological cycles, and soil biological activity (quality). Organic farming focuses on optimization rather than maximization of production. As a result, there are lower production levels than in conventional systems.