Population Projection PDF

Population Projection Population Projections Demographic Method Arithmetic Increase Method Geometric Increase Method Incremental Increase Method Graphical Method Logistic Curve Method Ratio Method of Density- Shift and Share Cohort Component Method...

Population Projection Population Projections Demographic Method Arithmetic Increase Method Geometric Increase Method Incremental Increase Method Graphical Method Logistic Curve Method Ratio Method of Density- Shift and Share Cohort Component Method 1 Demographic Increase Population Change By Births (+) Natural Increase By Deaths (-) Migration (+/-) Anticipated birth and death rates, emigration, immigration , area growth Arithmetic Increase Increase of Population is assumed to be constant Arithmetic Mean of increase in population is considered constant The future population is given by: Pn= Po + n x Where, Pn= Forecasted population after ‘n’ decades Po = Initial Population n = No. of decades between now and future x = Average of population increases in the known decades 2 Example Year Population 1981 951000 1991 1146000 2001 1697000 2011 2062000 Example Year Population Decadal Increase in Average Increase population 1981 951000 1991 1146000 1,95,000 2001 1697000 5,51,000 2011 2062000 3,65,000 2021 2031 3 Example Year Population Decadal Increase in Average Increase population 1981 951000 1991 1146000 1,95,000 2001 1697000 5,51,000 3,70,333 2011 2062000 3,65,000 2021 2031 Population in 2021 = Population of 2011 + Average Increase (Arithmetic Mean) (24,32,333) (20,62,000) (3,70,333) Geometric Increase Rate of increase of population is constant Geometric Mean of population growth rate is used for population projections The formula- Pn= Po(1+r/100)n Where, Pn= Forecasted population after ‘n’ decades Po = Initial Population r = Growth Rate (%) 4 Geometric Mean???? Rate of increase! Arithmetic Mean Vs. Geometric mean Geomean