Lesson 8.pptx

Lesson 8 Polling Why polling? Political socialization _______________________ _______ is Politicians want to know what the public the process by wh...

Lesson 8 Polling Why polling? Political socialization _______________________ _______ is Politicians want to know what the public the process by which we are trained to thinks… understand and join a country’s political Campaign managers want to know how citizens world. will vote… The media wants to write about what Examples: Americans want… American children begin reciting the Polling seeks to measure the pledge of allegiance from a young age public opinion _________________________ - the collective in school. attitudes and beliefs of individuals on one or more Children in North Korea are conditioned issues. to hate Americans. We form our political opinion based on what we In China, there is a heavy emphasis on believe to be good, true, and just. These attitudes begin to form in childhood (see pg. 186). nationalism. Polarization Pew research has polled Americans over a 25-year period, finding that Republicans and Democrats are becoming polarized more____________________________________ , or widely opposed over the last decade (see pg. 187-188). In 1987, 58% of Democrats and 60% of Republican agreed with the statement that… “the government controlled too much of our daily lives.” In 2012, 47% of Democrats and 77% of Republicans agreed with the statement. A 30% gap. In 2019, the gap increased to 35%. How to Measure Public Opinion Polling is the scientific methods and technology used to measure public opinion (see pg. 194- 195). The sample refers to the group participating in the poll. A good poll that well represents the opinion of American citizens should contain between 1,000 – 1,500 respondents. random sample A ________________________ consist of a limited number of people from the overall population selected in such a way that each has an equal chance of being chosen. Landline phones ensured randomness and avoided regional bias as households were called randomly to answer polling questions. Cell phones makes this more challenging. representative sample A _______________________________ consist of a group whose demographic distribution is like that of the overall population. Ex: Nearly 51% of the U.S. population is female. Any poll intended to measure what most Americans think about an issue should survey a sample containing slightly more women than men (see pg. 195). The Importance of The Sample margin of error The _________________________________ is a number that states how far the poll results may be from the actual opinion of the total population (see pg. 196). The lower the margin of error, the more productive the poll. Larger margins of error are problematic. Ex: If a poll that claims Elizabeth Warren (Senator from Massachusetts) is likely to win 30% of the vote in the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary has a margin of error of +/- 6, means that Warren may receive as little as 24% of the vote or as much as 36% of the vote. Types of Polls straw poll A _______________________ is an informal poll conducted for purposes of informally collecting information from a non-random population group. Newspapers and social media continue the tradition of unofficial polls, mainly because interest readers want to know how elections will end. Facebook and online newspapers often offer informal pop-up quizzes that ask a single question from their readers regarding politics or an event. The poll is not “formal” because it has sample problems and is purely meant as mediocre entertainment. Types of Polls Exit Polls ___________________________- Polls taken as people leave their polling places immediately after voting. The raw data are often leaked early and create inaccurate expectations of who might win. Faulty calls by the media in the 2000 election were the result of exit polls (see pg. 199). “In November 2000, exit poll interviews with voters in Florida indicated that Al Gore won the state. As a result, many television networks declared Gore the winner of Florida, a pivotal state to winning the presidency in 2000. Only a few hours later, the first vote tallies from the Florida Secretary of State's office revealed that George W. Bush was in fact leading in Florida. After 45 days of recounts and lawsuits, it was clear that the exit polls were wrong; Bush had won the state by the narrowest of margins” (Barreto, et. at. 2006). Types of Polls Push polls ____________________________________ consist of political campaign information presented as polls. Respondents are called and asked a series of questions about their position or candidate selections. If a respondent's answers are for the wrong candidate, the next question will giver negative information about the candidate to change the voter’s mind (see pg. 201). leading questions These polls may use __________________________________ which lead respondents to select a predetermined answer. The goal is to get press coverage for your candidate and gain momentum. Ex: MoveOn used a poll with leading questions to show Elizabeth Warren would do better than Hillary Clinton. The poll consisted of 10 positive statements about warren before asking whether the respondent would vote for Clinton or Warren (see pg. 199). Types of Polls Tracking Polls _________________________- Polls that keep track of data over time to detect changes in support for people or issues. These polls are significant because they can catch daily changes in public opinion that other polls cannot. One problem with polling is that respondents may not be comfortable answering pollsters honestly, this is Bradley effect known as the ________________________. Ex: in 2016 the level of support for Donald Trump may have been artificially low in the polls because respondents did not want to admit they were voting for Trump. Interest Groups Interest groups are groups including corporations ________________________________, that are bound by a common outside interest and that seek to use the political system to attain their policy goals from the ________________________ by persuading people in power (see pg. 340-341). The definition of what an “interest group” is will vary from state to state. Interest groups must abide by local, state, and federal laws _________________________________________________________________ that regulate the activities of interest groups. The primary goal of interest groups is to influence decision-makers __________________________________________ and public policies. Types of Interest Groups Economic Interest Groups _____________________________________________ - seek to influence policy for the pocketbook. American Medical Association, Labor Unions, Chamber of Commerce. Equal Opportunity Interest Groups ______________________________________________ - seek to represent people for who they are and fight discrimination. Women, African Americans, Latinos, LGBTQ, the elderly. Public Interest Groups _______________________________________________ - seek to change policy in accordance with what they believe is good for everyone (see pg. 345). Pro-life, pro-choice, right to smoke marijuana. Government Interest Groups ________________________________________________ – governments hire people to lobby other governments. States may lobby the government for federal funds. Benefits of Interest Groups Interest groups struggle to recruit members because interest groups provide a collective good that does not require membership. ___________________________________________ Material Incentives - substantive monetary or physical benefits given to group members to help overcome collective action problems (see pg. 347). ___________________________________________ Solidary Incentives - benefits based on the concept that people like to associate with those who are like them (see pg. 347). ___________________________________________- Purposive Incentives benefits to overcome collective action problems that appeal to people’s support of the issue or cause (see pg. 347). Lobbying and Interest Groups Lobbying __________________________________ -refers to efforts by groups to persuade government officials to act in accordance with their interest and is usually done by professional lobbyists. ________________________________– The Lobbying Disclosure Act requires the registration of lobbyists representing any interest group and devoting more than 20% of their time to it. Clients and lobbying firms must also register wit the federal government based on similar requirements. ____________________________________ The Revolving Door - refers to the fact that many lobbyists are likely to have been former government officials themselves. (see pg. 365). What are PACs? How can interest groups influence elections? Federal Election Campaign Act of 1974 - The____________________________________________ allowed for the creation of Political Action Committees. Political Action Committees _____________________________________________ -can give directly to candidates but are limited to how much money they can give (see pg. 360). Super Political Action Committees _____________________________________________ - cannot give directly to candidates and are not limited in their expenditures. Citizens In 2010 the courts ruledUnited in v. the FEC __________________________________________ that Super PACs could spend unlimited sums of money on political issues that impact an election. The court’s ruling was rooted in the idea that political spending is protected because it is a form of free speech (see pg. 364). What Is The Iron Triangle? Iron Triangle ________________________- Three-way relationship among congressional committees, interests' groups, and the bureaucracy (see pg. 358). The iron triangle is often criticized as leaving out the public interest since it is catering to goals of “interest groups” that can fund members of Congress. See example to the right.