Lecture 1: Introduction & Systems Thinking PDF

Systems Thinking, Scenarios & Indicators for Sustainable Development 2022-2023 GEO4-2331  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Teaching team...

Systems Thinking, Scenarios & Indicators for Sustainable Development 2022-2023 GEO4-2331  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Teaching team Agent- Co-coordinators: Tutorial supervision: based modelling: Dr. Luis Eduardo Dr. Kees Klein Dr. Javanshir Ramirez Camargo Goldewijk Fouladvand Renewable energy Historic land use Biobased economy modelling changes Dr. Natalie Davis Kaj-Ivar Complex socio- Thomas Gérard van der Wijst Dr. Hugo de Boer ecological Integrated systems Global modelling of Ecohydrology and impacts of climate Plant responses to Sustainability change rising CO2 1  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Programme for today: 1. Why STSI? 2. Course outline 3. Practical aspects 4. System thinking Indicators Lectures vs Logistics Diagrams Quantitative modelling tutorials Grades Feedback loops Scenarios Content overview Assignments Then: tutorial 2  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? Three topics covered in this course: 1 Indicators 2 Quantitative modelling 3 Scenarios … for sustainable development 3  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? 1 Indicators Kellyanne Conway Urgenda vs the Netherlands 4 https://youtu.be/o_zZY7lgfzo https://youtu.be/T6RhH09cVLc  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING URGENDA v. the State of the Netherlands Highlights from ruling C/09/456689 / HA ZA 13-1396 (date 24-6-2015) The Hague District Court has ruled today that the State must take more action to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands. The State also has to ensure that the Dutch emissions in the year 2020 will be at least 25%lower than those in 1990. The Urgenda Foundation had requested the court for a ruling. Based on the State’s current policy, the Netherlands will achieve a reduction of 17%at most in 2020, which is below the norm of 25%to 40%for developed countries deemed necessary in climate science and international climate policy. With this order, the court has not entered the domain of politics. The court must provide legal protection, also in cases against the government, while respecting the government’s scope for policymaking. For these reasons, the court should exercise restraint and has limited therefore the reduction order to 25%, the lower limit of the 25%-40%norm. 5  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? 1 Indicators Kellyanne Conway Urgenda vs the Netherlands 6 https://youtu.be/o_zZY7lgfzo https://youtu.be/T6RhH09cVLc  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? Three topics covered in this course: 1 Indicators 2 Quantitative modelling 3 Scenarios … for sustainable development 7 LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? 2 Quantitative modelling 8 LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? 2 Quantitative modelling 9 LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? 2 Quantitative modelling 10 LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? 2 Quantitative modelling 11 LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? 2 Quantitative modelling 12  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? Three topics covered in this course: 1 Indicators 2 Quantitative modelling 3 Scenarios … for sustainable development 13 LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? 3 Scenarios 14  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 1. Why STSI? Three topics covered in this course: 1 Indicators 2 Quantitative modelling 3 Scenarios … Sustainable development for 15  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Sustainable policy is often goal-oriented development How can we use science for sustainable development to inform policy goals? To reach any goal, four questions need to be answered: 1. What is our goal and when do we want to achieve this goal? 2. What is our goal in measureable units? 3. Where are we now? 4. What do we need to do/change to achieve the goal?  Indicators help to quantify goals and assess historic developments.  Modelling requires and contributes to system understanding.  Models are used to explore the future effects of policy options. 16  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING To reach any goal, four questions need to be answered: 1. What is our goal and when do we want to achieve this goal? 2. What is our goal in measureable units? 3. Where are we now? 4. What do we need to do/change to achieve the goal? Goals and targets are often set in (international) politics: UN Paris climate agreement (2016) UN Sustainable Development goals (SDGs) (2015) UN Millennium Development goals (2000) Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) International goals reflect scientific consensus on the issue, and public perception that change is needed. 17  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING To reach any goal, four questions need to be answered: 1. What is our goal and when do we want to achieve this goal? 2. What is our goal in measureable units? 3. Where are we now? 4. What do we need to do/change to achieve the goal? Develop the right indicators(s) Indicators should be measureable Data should be available in terms of trend over time Indicators should be possible to link with models Indicators are more than a simple metric. Ideally, indicators are linked to a model framework through which policy effects are 18 explored and updated based on new insights and developments.  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING To reach any goal, four questions need to be answered: 1. What is our goal and when do we want to achieve this goal? 2. What is our goal in measureable units? 3. Where are we now? 4. What do we need to do/change to achieve the goal? The current situation of development is inferred from data: Find reliable and sufficient data on the developed indicator(s), for example: - Remote sensing data on land use - Census data on population statistics - Socio-economic data on education and technology Interpreting indicators requires in-depth knowledge on how the state of the system is reflected by the (simple) metrics 19  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING To reach any goal, four questions need to be answered: 1. What is our goal and when do we want to achieve this goal? 2. What is our goal in measureable units? 3. Where are we now? 4. What do we need to do/change to achieve the goal? Outlining effective policy requires knowledge on how the system will respond to future actions: Historic responses as analogy for the future Mechanistic (process-based) models of the system Expert knowledge Effects of different policies can be explored in scenario-based model analyses 20  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING System perspective on decision making The goal-oriented approach to sustainable development can be summarized in terms of a decision-making system. Environmental change Societal change Indicators Net in/outflow Actual situation: X Action to change Perceived situation: Xp situation Discrepancy: Xg - Xp Scenarios Policy goals Desired situation: Xg From Sustainability Science, B. de Vries (Figure 5.3) 21  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Setting goals and reaching targets Historic data System Understanding (Data collection and analysis) (Scenario-based modelling) Indicator value Business as usual (e.g. CO2 emissions) No place for alternative facts! Policy 1 Policy 2 Goal Past Future Present Time 22  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Programme for today: 1. Why STSI? 2. Course outline 3. Practical aspects 4. System thinking Indicators Lectures vs Logistics Diagrams Quantitative modelling tutorials Grades Feedback loops Scenarios Content overview Assignments Then: tutorial 23  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Programme for today: 1. Why STSI? 2. Course outline 3. Practical aspects 4. System thinking Indicators Lectures vs Logistics Diagrams Quantitative modelling tutorials Grades Feedback loops Scenarios Content overview Assignments Then: tutorial 24  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 2. Course outline Study formats 1. Topical lectures by the teaching staff 2. Guest lectures by experts in the field of modelling and indicators 3. Computer labs to explore different modelling platforms 4. Working groups to conduct research on sustainability indicators 5. Self-study: assigned readings prior to each lecture and exam preparation 25  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 2. Course outline The key aim of the STSI course is to make students familiar with a wide variety of modelling tools and indicators that are used to study sustainability issues and generate usable knowledge for sustainable development. Four topics 1. Analysis of dynamics in complex social-environmental systems 2. Agency and global decision-making 3. Food security and land use conflicts 4. Research into sustainable development goals and indicators 26  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 2. Course outline Assigned readings (Check Blackboard and the course guide for a day-to-day overview) 1. Topical scientific papers 2. Selected chapters from the textbook Sustainability Science, B. de Vries, Cambridge University Press 3. UN resolution on Sustainable Development Goals 4. Working groups to conduct research on sustainability indicators 5. Selected chapters from IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report 27  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Programme for today: 1. Why STSI? 2. Course outline 3. Practical aspects 4. System thinking Indicators Lectures vs Logistics Diagrams Quantitative modelling tutorials Grades Feedback loops Scenarios Content overview Assignments Then: tutorial 28  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Programme for today: 1. Why STSI? 2. Course outline 3. Practical aspects 4. System thinking Indicators Lectures vs Logistics Diagrams Quantitative modelling tutorials Grades Feedback loops Scenarios Content overview Assignments Then: tutorial 29 LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 3. Practical aspects 1 Grades 2 Course programme 3 Logistics 30  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 3. Practical aspects : Grades Grading based on one exam and two assignments Exam 40% Assignment 3 (Scenario assignment) 30% Assignment 4 (Indicator research assignment) 30% 100% What about assignments 1 (Stella)  Part of the exam and 2 (Agent-based modelling)? 31  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING 3. Practical aspects : Grades Grading based on one exam and two assignments Rules for passing the course Pass: Average final grade ≥ 5.5 Repair*: Average final grade >4.00 (but Assignment 2 > Computer set-up instructions Install Anaconda (not just Python!) Download models from Blackboard Install required packages 62  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Summary Historic data System Understanding (Data collection and analysis) (Scenario-based modelling) Indicator value Business as usual (e.g. CO2 emissions) No place for alternative facts! Policy 1 Policy 2 Goal Past Future Present Time 63  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Programme for today: 1. Why STSI? 2. Course outline 3. Practical aspects 4.System thinking Indicators Lectures vs Logistics Diagrams Quantitative modelling tutorials Grades Feedback loops Scenarios Content overview Assignments Then: tutorial 64  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Programme for today: 1. Why STSI? 2. Course outline 3. Practical aspects 4.System thinking Indicators Lectures vs Logistics Diagrams Quantitative modelling tutorials Grades Feedback loops Scenarios Content overview Assignments Then: tutorial 65  LECTURE 1: INTRODUCTION & SYSTEM THINKING Then: tutorial Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Tutorial supervision: Tutorial supervision: Tutorial supervision: Tutorial supervision: Kees Thomas Javanshir Luis/Kaj/Hugo Room today: BOL 1.022 Room today: Ruppert 033 Room today: Ruppert 002 Room today: Ruppert 116 https://bit.ly/stsi_tutorials_2023 66