Geopolitics (2)-14-46.pdf

Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Part 2. The Origins and Development of the Cold War, 1945-53 The Origins of the cold war Europe after WWII Challenge to the pre-war social order o Demand more from State than security and economic and mil...

Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Part 2. The Origins and Development of the Cold War, 1945-53 The Origins of the cold war Europe after WWII Challenge to the pre-war social order o Demand more from State than security and economic and military interests: social justice and social mobility o Europe in ruins, communist ideas appealing o Ideas and demands for social change spread easily, with support from a powerful State Elites made lots of efforts to prevent such change o Link between ideology and security Factories are destroyed, people have lost live. People did not expect the same thing before as we do today. They wanted security and that slowly develop, and they wanted more from the government. The idea of equality and the manual labour should have more. After WWII opposition between Russia and USA, a big concern for those in power. They see that as a potential new war. This idea of security was physical security also, for some reason it’s not your own fault and you lose you job, it should be a system to take care of you →social security. The community, the government help you. A sort of social justice, if you work hard, you shouldn’t stay poor. People work hard, 7 days a week and they are still poor ☹. This notion of what to expect from the government, seriously extended. They will confuse this demand with the communism which is just an extreme of this demand. Ideological Foundations Liberalism Communism Freedom as cornerstone of capitalism: Planned Economy o Liberty, based in law, rooted in Revolutions: ‘Locomotives of property history’ (Marx) Self-determination and democracy Strong hold on citizen’s lives o E.g., Religion, ideas Freedom to have you own property, The state provides everything→ No private property The money you earn is yours and nobody can take If you earn money, you give everything to the State it especially the government who organized this money. But also, if you want to be a doctor you will not earn more money that a teacher You can choose your religion Excessive form: The state told you what to think and what you can say and that’s why there is no place for religion. Multi party or be party, you are free to choose your Only one party with selected people own leader and others too 14  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Unites States Greatest military and economic power: o GDP increase of 60% during the war o Three times more arms than SU (1943) o 1945: 2/3 of the world’s gold reserves; 3/4 of its invested capital; half of its shipping vessels, and half of its manufacturing capacity Feeling of insecurity: o Possibility in the US of ‘the greatest period of unemployment and industrial dislocation which any economy has ever faced’ (Samuelson, 1943) Need to create an international environment conducive to the American way of life The biggest power at the end of the war. It has gigantic reserved of gold and Europe country ask money to USA. They are also the largest army of the world. USA doesn’t feel very confidant because much of this come from investment, and they think more is better for the economy. USA product a lot during the war, the economy increases but now we don’t need more weapon and nobody else have money so no one can pay for products. But they still produce a lot. And that determines the policy with Europe, they tried to create a link with Europe because they need Europe buy their products. They want an open market. Soviet Union Triumph of Soviet power: Positive contribution to the Twentieth century Modernized army and systematic exploitation of German science, technology and resources BUT domestic precarity and insecurity of the Soviet situation o Bad economic situation, country completely destroyed and drained o Surrounded by hostile populations Original goal: Stable relations with the West and legitimizing the new borders of the SU. Growth of communist and left parties in the West They feel that without them we will still be in the war (reference to the number of death pg. 16). They provide a big sacrifice but economically they are completely belly up. After the first invasion basically with Germany everything is destroyed so they need to rebuild but they have no money. There is a great potential with the industry of weapon, but they are not in the best position at this moment. They want to increase their security (they don’t want another war), they want to make sure that they can control that’s why they want an allied in the head of Poland. To get their economy better that’s why they tried to have good relationship with USA they wanted help. Soviet Union is not just Russia, but a sort of federation of 15 republic and Russia is one of them. The Russian federation is the dominant in this system. After the war they have back some territories. Th satellite states are not in the federation, but they are going to be communist because of the influence of Russia. It’s not homogenous! 15  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard The cold war George Orwell: The Cold War The atomic bomb and “Hot War”? War by Proxy Combination of Soviet actions and American responses or initiatives that created the seeds for the emergence of the Cold War Urgency for USSR to improve and consolidate its position Military aspect at odds with ideological clash Peace is the absence of war so in this case we are in peace time but there is a full tension between USA and SU that’s why we use the term cold war. One of the points is the atomic bomb, a weapon that one of the things because it’s called the cold war. These two countries will do anything to avoid the direct confrontation and when it happened it’s by accident, is not an intentional strategy. They know if they have a confrontation there will be at one time or another the use of an atomic bomb. They will fight against each other trough other (Vietnam). The nuclear weapon pushes the SU to increase their strategy and they will try to develop it quickly. They want to take advantage because they are allies. This is a clash of idea, but we cannot fight idea with a weapon. All is about power! Features of the cold war Geographic divisions o “Iron Curtain” Competition for new adherents Show superiority through economic production and technological advance Importance of ideologies This will come very tense in Europe. To divide east and west. The things are not like today. In berlin you can still feel this separation. This geographic division, they will fight for new members and to keep the country in the block. They see competition everywhere because, you need to show that you are better than the other one, we are healthier, we have more money… to show that your economic model is better than the neighbour. That’s the same with the Olympics, they are competing in everything. In Europe they say, “you need to fight because you will not be free anymore under communist”. SU begins the war and Europe and USA just responded. The Origins od the cold war US reactions to Soviet aggression or expansion in Central and Eastern Europe. Orthodox o Commitment of the USSR to strengthen its power in Germany and Central and interpretation Eastern Europe. o Soviet hostility made it necessary for the US to help Western Europe. Revisionist Defensive Soviet policies in reaction to the proactive and expansionist US policies interpretation (Cox and Stoke 2012) US foreign policies designed to requirements of capitalism o Importance of the expansionist US policies. o Soviet concern was domestic reconstruction and making sure that Germany would not be a threat anymore. o Ultimate purpose of the US was to expand the influence of capitalism and the American way of life. 16  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard o The US caused the division of Europe through the Marshall Plan and its Containment policy Post-revisionists Balanced and research-oriented approach Purposeful American overreactions  If you see the Marshall plan and all this thing, come from USA you know why Russia fells rejected. And in their response, they have exaggerated to justify their own attack. Growing Tensions and confrontation The atomic bomb Key feature of the Cold War Timeline: o 1945: US atomic bomb o 1949: USSR atomic bomb o 1952: US hydrogen bomb o 1955: USSR hydrogen bomb The nuclear threat o ‘Massive retaliation’ (Eisenhower) o M.A.D.: nuclear deterrence – the ‘suicide pact’ (Hobsbawm 1994) ▪ Enough power to destroy the world several times over ▪ Weapons can be launched from ground, air, sea On of the most characteristics of the cold war is the atomic bomb. And the Americans were surprised that Russia build the atomic bomb because they didn’t have the knowledge, but they had spy, so they copy. That’s why, after they build a hydrogen bomb with more energy and the SU did the same. In the beginning, they had a few numbers of weapon and after they produced them massively. If one attacked the other in your response you need to annihilate you enemy and make sure he cannot response against you. Whatever you do the other will response. The first bomb was drop in airplane and after you will have other way and you can destroy all and will not be able to response because you can neutralise every weapons. Before the bomb exploded in the air, now we can make them exploded on the ground →more destruction. War head, if you are USA and you need to bomb a country far away you can send them with one missile and this head will explode separately. They produced in mass and after thinking that they don’t need so much weapon.  Some People say that thanks to nuclear weapon we are in peace and that’s why there is not direct confrontation. 17  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Tensions in the Near East Turkey What happened? Turkey is very closed to SU, and they have an important position because February 1946 they have access to water. But in winter only point to access sea is Novorossiysk but they still need to pass the Dardanelles and they have an agreement about that. The deal is commercial boat can go trough except military vessel. So SU is not allowed to send as much as boat as Stalin want, it de pends on Turkey. In 1946 that’s why they take Bulgaria. They promised Turkey militate help and they have now a free access. US warning and Turkish acceptance of US aid (U$ 100 million) and NATO membership in 1952. Iran March During WWII they wanted to access to Germany, and it 1946 was not a good idea to go to the SU trough the Baltic Sea (part of German) that’s why they invaded Iran because Iran have been to neutral and friendly with Germany, so they refused to help the allies that’s why they invaded them. They always said it was a temporary invasion. Max 6 months when world war is over, we give you your country back, but Stalin said I stay and encourage in some provinces people to want their independence. Stalin, show he has other ambition. What happened in USA? How they see this situation George He was an American diplomatic in Moscow and when he is back, he started to analyse the Kennan’s Long Soviet and ask himself how he can help the USA. So, he made an analyse. It’s show us how Telegram Americans see SU. And they do not one to give them any possibility to be first. The action of Stalin is not supported by the population, but she is indifferent. SU use communist party in Italy, France for their action. Soviet decision makers are strong but confident and convince that their economic model is better but what the time show us…. We can say that nop it’s not better, it worst. According to Kennan: The Soviets perceived themselves to be in a state of perpetual war with capitalism. The Soviets would use controllable Marxists in the capitalist world as allies. Soviet aggression was not aligned with the views of the Russian people or with economic reality, but with historic Russian xenophobia and paranoia. The Soviet government's structure prevented objective or accurate pictures of internal and external reality  When you look Karl Marx, he things that its capitalism is bad for people but communism it’s very cool. If you are soviet, you see all this capitalism country and you think you can change them. The soviet sees themselves as savers. Truman and We can leave in this situation, but we can tolerate that SU advance and take more country. Containment That’s why we need to invest in the country who could change like Greece. Truman had an important speech in Congress in 1947 to convince them to support with money country like Greece and Turkey. This was a powerful speech, and he will have the money. It shows the determination of the USA because when they said that they will help those country, they are engaging in 3, 4 years and they need to do whatever it’s necessary. They said to the rest of the world that “you need to make a decision you are with us or with them?” So, to contain USSR, USA had to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures. 18  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Two words East and West Marshall Plan European Recovery Program (ERP): US aid package to finance recovery of Western Europe and prevent spread of communism ($17 billion between 1948-52) Conditions: o Plan for recovery (reform, modernization and cooperation among European nations) o American leverage in Europe for liberal reforms Necessity? o Increased industrial capacity by 1948 o German recovery (opportunity vs. threat)  Support recovery vs. dominate Western European economies  Modest economic, but large structural impact Soviet Union invited to Paris conference (Oct. 1946), but withdrew from negotiations (as did Eastern European countries) Soviet Response: o COMECON: Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (1949) o Cominform: Communist Information Bureau (1947)  Rebuilding W-Europe more important for US than cooperation with Soviets  Increased grip on Eastern European This is an economic program. The condition in Europe was favourable to the spread of communism that’s why USA build this financial program in exchange Europe need to show how they will use that money. That was a way to assure those country to stay liberal. This provided them an average in western Europe. But the question is will be Germany a part of this Marshall Plan? France wasn’t happy but USA insisted because last time it was bad with the Treaty of Versailles. It this a better strategy to support recovering of Germany to use its influence. Czechoslovakia wanted to be part of this plan, but SU said no so SU develop its own Marshall plan. That’s how they have influence the satellite country because for USA the most important was to have the old Europe. In reaction, Russia will increase this grief on the satellite country. 19  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard The German question Single economic unit vs. dismemberment Weakening Germany vs. Germany as motor for European recovery Dismantle vs. Demilitarize German industry Reparations vs. German industry for European recovery Germany is divided into 4 zones and Berlin is also divided in 4 zones and it also happened in Austria and Vienne. But Germany is much bigger important geographically and economically that’s why is less famous. First questions: We took it in one piece, or we divided? The allies are not in agreement, SU want a total spread and USA want the opposite. French is between because they don’t want to frustrate SU. For the reparation we cannot take everything from Germany, so we reintegrate Germany and use its strength to rebuild Europe. But with the 4 zones we need to make sure that they are not going to be communist. November 1947: it’s not possible to rejointed all the country, their vison is different so the 3 others allied against SU and became west Germany and will become part of the Marshall plan. URSS tried to influence France by scare of invasion, but it doesn’t work. Stalin block the access of his zone because people are going to the allies and Stalin is really frustrated and so he makes everything to stop that. There is only one way to quit Berlin east and the allies send flight to access Stalin part. URSS is determinate for 11 months nothing could pass. One consequence unexpected it’s the alliance of the old Europe. Division of Germany Bundesrepublik Deutschland (BRD) Allies o 23 May 1949 o Bonn Deutsche Demokratische Republik (DDR) URSS o 7 October 1949 o Berlin Nato and interrogation in Europe Not just a consequence of Berlin Blockage but it helps the development. This organisation around a common security happened around 1945. The treaty was signed in 1949. Nato if one member is attack it’s an attack of all members, include USA (guaranty of USA to use their weapons). And now we can stop frightening about our neighbours because we are all in the same boat. 20  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Western Politicians realized that they would, at this point, not be able to stop a Soviet invasion. However, they also did not believe that this was a realistic option, they did not believe that the Soviets attempt this. The origins of NATO are rather complex and grew from a mix of fears and ambitions. The most important goal, however, was to show a common determination and to stabilize the economy. If there is fear of the soviets, people might be less likely to invest. NATO was aimed to soothe such fears and bring political and economic stability. Western governments would never spend so much money on an inexistent threat (SU) unless there were economic advantages. The Soviet Union obviously saw this as a threat and correctly estimated that this alliance was aimed against them. They were, however, particularly upset that the BRD would be included. This also marked a shift to considering the Soviet Union as the main threat to European Security instead of Germany. A threat that would be dealt with collectively. Nato Only four countries joined NATO during the Cold War after its creation: Greece and Enlargement Turkey in 1952, West Germany in 1955 and Spain in 1982. After the end of the Cold War, numerous Central and Eastern European countries also joined NATO, binging NATO right at the Russian borders. The satellites State became member of Nato in 2004. And so, you have only two States between Nato and Russia today. Integration in The Schuman declaration is at the basis of European integration. Robert Schuman was the Europe. How Foreign Affairs minister of France, and he wrote the declaration with Jean Monnet, one of can we work his principal advisors. The declaration proposed a long-term vision towards European better integration, but also corresponded to the short-term agenda for the French Economic together? recovery. Schuman’s proposal was to pool the French and German coal and steel and let them be regulated by a common, higher authority. Why coal and steel? These two materials were the backbone of the industrial economy. Hence, it would be good for recovery to have a common market. But, since these are also the two most important elements to make weapons, it would no longer be possible for either country to independently manage its production and it would no longer be economically interesting to attack your own market. Basically, this proposition made war materially almost impossible. Konrad Adenauer accepted the offer on behalf of West Germany. The Americans supported the initiative as they saw this as an important step towards reconciliation between Germany and France and it would be good for economic recovery and stability.  In these circumstances it’s not very favourable for the development of communism because you have a good economy, a good atmosphere. 21  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard European Coal ECSC: It’s based that everyone little or big you are on the same level. It’s obvious and stell advantages for small country like Belgium but also for bigger as France. Economic zone community with no impot on transportation. The Treaty of Paris of 1951 created the European Coal and Steel Community and was signed by 6 countries: Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. The Treaty also created the High Authority, the governing body of the ECSC, which would later be merged into the European Commission. The way the ECSC was organized would later become the blueprint for our current EU institutions. This means the surrender of sovereignty, as member states can no longer decide these matters themselves, but delegate the decisional power to the ECSC, or later the EU. And there was also equality of the members, as each country has an equal say or an equal vote. Jean Monnet’s Jean was smart. He has his vision: first Germany and France together with coal and steel Vision and the border country will be integrated as well, next economic sector and finally the social, cultural and political sector. Europe was closer and The Soviet closer together with response these common values as democracy, they share a vison oh how the world should be organised. But this was not the case for the eastern country, Soviet Union know that. This was really challenging to the Soviet, they need to increase cohesion, they need also to have the same vision. They need to reinforce their grip an Eastern and central Europe → process of sovietisation. They will try something similar; they tell to other what to do and what to think. They tried also to organise a collective pact, the Warsaw pact, in theory it was a voluntary alliance of sovereign and equal states. Sovietization In response to the decreasing cooperation among the allies, and especially the Marshall Plan, Stalin wanted to create a unified Soviet bloc after the Autumn of 1947. To accomplish this, in his view, it would require a process of Sovietization. They tried to increase their influence especially when Czechoslovakia was interested to Nato. Stalin want to increase his grips on Europe by taking power in the eastern power. Czechoslovakia, the communism is not very popular, and he need to make sure that became more communist. He wants to tell everyone do like us so: one party, the opposition killed, one vision in the party with the same institution. An approach to install fear and terror. That was the tactic to make sure everyone stays in the Warsaw pact. All of those who had a different idea of Stalin what communism is will be send to the Gulag. 22  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Therefore, the Soviets gradually but quickly increased their grip over Eastern European countries. Stalin’s control of the Eastern European governments was gradual and not the same in all the territories under Soviet influence. Perhaps Stalin may have been cautious. Andrei Zhdanov was the Chair of the COMINFORM’s formative meeting, he was Stalin’s Doctrine two main ideologue. He announced for the first time from the Soviet’s perspective the existence camp of the ‘two camps. Zhdanovism soon became a Soviet cultural policy, meaning that Soviet artists, writers and intelligentsia in general had to conform to the party line in their creative works. Under this policy, artists who failed to comply with the government's wishes risked persecution. Everything needed to serve a larger social purpose. The policy remained in effect until the death of Stalin in 1953. Next, we turn to Sovietization in Czechoslovakia and communist rule under Tito in Yugoslavia to show that sovietisation could be very aggressive, but that it could not be imposed everywhere. So, there were certainly important differences from one country to another.  An imperialist camp (USA) and a democratic camp Soviet Union, all the activity of society should be with the common good of Soviet Union so everything of people said it’s determinant. Communism will be a deep impact on people everyday lives. Czechoslovakia February 1948: Prague Coup 38% for communist party in 1946 election Participate in government Cominform urges to speed up communist takeover Communists stage a government crisis o Purges in the policy force by communist minister of interior o Non-communist ministers resign and are replaced by communists after orchestrated demonstrations All other parties fall in line with the communist party at 1948 elections o Jan Masaryk President Benes resigns and is replaced by communist leader Gottwald o Communists win 1948 elections with 90% of the votes Open free election is organized, communism had a good result 38%, they have the monastery of interior and justice, strategic position. Stalin is afraid the soviet will join Nato even if he had 38%, he said that ha has just part and he want everything. He installs a crisis in the government he vires all the government, and the communism are organizing manifestation wit the idea to pretend that the majority want a communism government. And the president is afraid of a civil war, and he wants to avoid that and the intervention of the soviet army. The other members resign, and communism became to power, not very constitutional but that what happens. Jan Masaryk is killed, and we think it’s Stalin. It’s a big shock for Nato and it shocks the power and the violence of Russia. Yugoslavia Early years: Yugoslavia as a trustworthy partner o Initial autonomy became a threat o Bilateral agreements and Tito-Stalin split in 1948  banishment from Cominform  failed coup against Tito 23  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard  different (more authentic Marxist) form of communism Reduce risk of Soviet invasion if confrontation with the West: Effective – but not formal – incorporation within NATO (1950-1955) Normalization of the relationship and the Belgrade Declaration (1955), after the death of Stalin Tito follows Stalin because he believed in the same idea not because he was afraid but at one point it stops. Because in 1948, Tito made several bilateral agreements with Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary, which did not please Stalin. Stalin hate when people do what he cannot control so at this point he warns to stop that. He tried to organize a coup, but the coup failed this time because he had a lot of support. And Tito ask protection of Nato, and they became will have this support, but they did not become member of Nato. When Stalin died the relation will be better with Khrushchev. In the communist country they have this idea that they have a common vision, but it was not the case. The Yugoslavs were eager to prove their Communist credentials and felt compelled to conceptualize and publicize their interpretation of ‘authentic’ Marxism. They revived Marx’s early theses, which Stalin had buried in order to create a monstrous hybrid of a system. So, Stalin had diverged from Marx’ original writings and the Yugoslavs wanted to make that clear and show that they were more authentic. The cold War Intensifies China: a sleeping Giant Foreign imperial intrusions Opium wars (1839-42, 1856-60) between British and Chinese forcing China to trade with outside world (strict Chinese trade conditions) Sino-Japanese war over influence in Korea (1895) showed need for administrative reforms in addition to industrial and technological modernization Anti-colonial Boxer Rebellion (1899-1901) supported by Empress Dowager Cixi Xinhai Revolution in 1911: Qing dynasty collapses Creation of the Republic of China (ROC) (1912-49) China had a huge market and force chinses to have a trade. The British had Honk Kong and they were celling opium to China, and they wanted to continue this market but war. Through the opium wars, the British tried to impose better conditions for trade with China, who had imposed severe restrictions on international trade. After the first opium war, won by the British, new and better trade conditions were imposed but not respected by the Chinese, causing the second opium war. The British had been smuggling opium from India causing many Chinese to become addicted. The Chinese wanted to fend off foreign influence. China was the largest economy in the world for many centuries until the Opium Wars. The war between China and Japan: China had huge population but Japan had already turn to industrial revolution and a common administration so that was easy to invade China. Chinese did not have a central administration and there was a lot of corruption. The loss and rise of China 2nd Sino–Japanese war (1937) Chiang Kai–shek’s Nationalist party (Kwomintang/KMT) o no strong central government or functional/effective administration 24  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Civil war: Mao Zedong’s Communists prevail (1949) o Cautious Soviet (military) support o US: KMT was lost cause December 1949: Unified China and Chiang retreat to Taiwan o Remained president of ROC, recognized by the West as the official government of China After the collapse of the Manchu dynasty (1912), China had no central government and had become the playground of Great powers. As we saw earlier, China entered the second WW with Japan in 1937 already. By the end of the War in 1945, China was not a unified country, and Chiang’s nationalist KMT were unable to provide for a functional and effective administration over the entire Chinese territory. In the 1930s, Mao Zedong wanted to unite the country under single leadership and build a strong independent China under communist rule. While largely outnumbered (5-1) the communists won, especially because the nationalists were so weak. Influence of Stalin and the Soviet Union was minimal at this point. Stalin was very suspicious of communists he could not control and who would follow a different course. While always cautious, Stalin did support the communist troops. The US, however, lost faith in the nationalists who were unpopular and clearly losing the civil war. Therefore, the US would not intervene, as there was very little they could do at this point. In 1949, The communist forces had taken over almost all of China and Chiang fled to Taiwan where he maintained his claim as the legitimate government of China. The West followed him in this, until Pres. Carter broke off ties with Taiwan for mainland China in the late 1970s. This is known as the one-China principle, according to which there is only one China, of which Taiwan is a part.  During the war Japanese think that was a great idea to invade China because she was weak. At this time the government was not really support by the population and when they allied with Soviet Union to get back Japanese. And that’s how Mao had this idea of a communism China. Having them fighting each other is good for URSS because China communism will be a weaker communism than in URSS. The unify China and Chiang retreat to Taiwan. Why the Americans did not something because they can do nothing, they will a lot of people for nothing. A communist China? Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance (1950) How could this happen? o Not enough available resources –> priority to Europe o No Soviet troops involved o Correct US assessment: impossible/demanding task Missed opportunity? o Chinese mistrust of Stalin, even greater mistrust of Americans Stalin’s reluctance to support Chinese communists o Doubts about communist success in China 25  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard o Suspicious influence of strong China (cf. Tito in Yugoslavia) o Benefitted from division A big shock for the west because the largest country and the largest population are communist together. So, if they were together what can they do? So, Europe need to do something but if people doesn’t want a government, you have nothing to do unless to spend a huge amount of money and be prepared to lose a lot of people which the Americans didn’t choose. Mao was not trustful of the soviet and even less in Americans. Mao is still with a revolution; Stalin wasn’t sure Mao, and the communism will succeed. Why, however, was Stalin initially so reluctant to openly support the Chinese rebels? 1. Stalin was a cautious man, and while he supported Mao through aid and weapons, he was also talking to the KMT. Also, he did not want to openly be in confrontation with the US. Initially, Stalin had many doubts his Chinese comrades would succeed in taking over China. 2. Stalin was also suspicious of a strong communist China that might have divergent opinions and would undermine the SU’s communist domination internationally. 3. He would benefit from a divided or weak China. He did not want either party – KMT or Mao – to win. In this scenario, he would have more influence and could gain concessions from them. He was particularly interested in having access to a warm water port. Korea Division at the 38th Parallel after WWII o Soviet North & US South Kim Il Sung: invasion of the South on 25 June 1950 o Support from China and Soviets Containment o Soviet aggression needed to be stopped as early as possible UN international intervention (US troops) 27 June o Chinese invasion o How was UN vote in Security Council possible? End of hostilities on 27 July 1953 o Repatriation of Prisoners of War o Death of Stalin Invaded by the Japanese and liberated by the Americans. And they didn’t know how to manage Korea, so the leader of the North decided to invade the south, it was successful. Two days after the invasion, the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) passed a vote for an international intervention to pull back the northern troops. Although 21 countries participated, the US provided almost 90% of the military personnel. If you wonder how the UNSC was able to pass this vote while China and the SU were members too, well, this is because the SU boycotted the UNSC, following the refusal of the UN to recognize the communist government as legitimate government of China – instead it still recognized the government in exile in Taiwan. Given their absence, the soviets could not veto the resolution and it passed. 26  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Korea was an example of containment; it was necessary for the US to prevent a communist takeover at all costs and any Soviet aggression needed to be stopped. Southern forces were losing territory until an invasion in the north cut off many of the Northern troops. UN troops then quickly advanced until China sent massive numbers of troops in the North. Troops eventually stabilized around the 38th parallel. Because of the armistice, a demilitarized zone (DMZ) was created. The fact that Stalin pass away it’s maybe a factor. But they needed a solution for the prisoners because a lot of north Korean prisoner didn’t want to come back. A North pretend the same for south prisoners, but it was not the case. We did not attend a war like that, but Europe was safe so no need to increase the level of Conclusion military. But for the first time, the cold war spread into Asia. The Korean war was also the from Korea first military confrontation of the Cold War. Up until then, the Cold War had mostly been a matter of manoeuvring, diplomatic tactics and scheming. Korea also signified the interplay between domestic and international politics. What had initially been an internal, Korean, problem, quickly turned into an international conflict with soldiers from the US and Europe involved. Finally, the confrontation had not evolved the way the West had anticipated, as it seemed the SU had lost its striking military superiority. The Americans struggled to gain the upper hand. NSC 68 Rearmament 1949: Soviet Union obtains nuclear weapons o Western Europe at risk in short-term o Increase need for conventional forces NSC 68 (1950) o Soviet aggression pending (cf. Korean War) o Fear that the balance of strength had tilted in favour of Soviets  Avoid hot war by winning cold war  More proactive and offensive fighting of the cold war  Military expansion at unprecedented scale Recommendations “Rollback” priority (vs. Containment/co-existence)  Will not be supported by President Eisenhower Expansion of US military budget Development of a hydrogen bomb (1952) Military aid to US allies 27  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard NSC 68 in perspective Based on several assessments: Soviet aggression, out to dominate the world o not expansionist, no new initiatives Tilted balance in favour of USSR o no evidence for this ‘Free World’ vs. ‘slave world’ o Free world not so free -> attraction to communism  Korean War strengthened its conclusions NSC 68 was a secret, internal policy paper made to Truman by the National Security Council. After the Soviets had acquired the nuclear weapon in 1949, the Americans could no longer simply rely on their nuclear deterrence to avoid Soviet aggression – because the Soviets could now retaliate with the same power. This meant that Western Europe was still at risk from a Soviet invasion. If the West could no longer simply count on its nuclear weapons to make sure a Soviet invasion would not happen, they needed to invest more in conventional military force. NSC 68 claimed that the Soviet Union would seek world domination, and that an attack on Europe, Asia and Africa was, therefore, the Soviet’s goal and imminent. The Korean War of the same year provided additional credibility to this thesis. o But, the SU had, so far, not been expansionist, and had only operated within its own sphere of influence. There had not been any new initiatives in countries that were close to the US, for example. Communists had already been in China and Korea for a while. The policy paper also claimed that the balance of power had tilted to the advantage of the Soviets and, therefore, recommended a course of action that would allow the Americans to win the Cold War in the long run. o There is absolutely no evidence for this. There is no evidence that the SU had invested more into its military – in fact, it had its own economic problems. And the Soviets did not have a technological advantage either. So, there is no proof to this assumption. But it was used to scare policymakers for whom this paper was written. The NSC68 policy paper advocated a proactive and offensive strategy for fighting the Cold War. Compared, for example, to George Kenna’s containment policy, which promoted a more comprehensive strategy where diplomacy was more important than military action, NSC68 advocated the opposite. The effect of NSC68 would be quite important, as it set in motion unprecedented investments in the military, which would eventually lead to the arms race with the Soviet Union. As we will see, the US will vastly expand its military spending and invest in new military technology, including the development of the Hydrogen bomb. Instead of containment, NSC68 urged for a policy of roll-back. While containment advocated an approach that would prevent the Soviet Union from gaining new territories and expanding their influence, NSC68 urged for a “rollback” approach, which consisted of actively trying to win back countries that had been lost to communism. Basically, this meant that this policy would not accept the co-existence of the Soviet Union but would actively try to reduce it.  A national security council. The Soviet had the nuclear weapon, and they will become more and more aggressive, and the Korean world war prove it. They field that the balance of power was 28  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard disequilibrate, so they need to win a conventional war with conventional weapons and not just fight an ideology. They need to be sure that the liberal country does not turn in communism anymore. Eisenhower did not agree with this. By supporting those country, they are created a ground for communism, especially in Latino America because western industry exploited the ground and the people so that the perfect way to spread communism. 29  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Part 3. Cold War: Crises and changes, 1953-63 Death of Stalin 1953 o Came to power in 1924 o Purges Sovietization (Stalinization) o Split with Tito and accusations of ‘bad communists’ o Now: easier to open to non-allied countries (e.g., India) Successor: Nikita Khrushchev o Process of destalinization o Speech 20th Party Congress 1956: “On the Cult of Personality and Its Consequences” ▪ Cominform disbanded ▪ Reduction of Soviet troops In 1953, Stalin died and he his know for a lot of purges of people with a different vision of him. His successor is Khrushchev, he thinks that wasn’t a great idea that all the power was on the hand of Stalin. His successor, Nikita Khrushchev will start a process of destalinization, trying to reverse some of the excesses that had occurred under Stalin’s rule. Khrushchev was Ukrainian- born and became secretary of the communist party of the USSR after an internal struggle. He had taken part in the purges of the 1930s and had killed over 55,000 civil servants in those purges. At the 20th Party Congress in 1956, Khrushchev will discuss this destalinization and the excesses under Stalin in what is known as the secret speech, a report entitled “On the Cult of Personality and Its Consequences”. The content of this speech will eventually spread throughout the communist world and put pressure on the Soviets, as some will take this as a signal to demand more freedom from the Soviets. Poland-Poznan protests June 1956: o ± 100,000 workers uprising in Poznan with economic motivations o Suppressed by the Polish military o Demands for rehabilitation of Wladyslaw Gomulka October 1956: Election of Gomulka as first secretary of the Party o Intense negotiations with Khrushchev o Assurances to Soviet leadership + threats to arm workers o Loosening grip and more equal relationship In Poland people are hungry, they work hard for nothing. So, in 1956, workers stop to work, and it turns violent, and they ask for a rehabilitation of their own leader (consequence of the speech), there is a lot of tension between soviet and Khrushchev. He said that they can have a communism more adopt to Poland. He accepts to increase the legitimacy around the population.  The revolts of October 1956 were the product of the de-Stalinization process directed from Moscow and they can be regarded as predominantly political actions. The Polish demanded a more independent, local, national socialism. Gomułka provided a Polish communism that was less strict and that put Polish interests first. 30  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Hungarian revolution of 1956 23 Oct. 1956: peaceful demonstrations in solidarity with Poland became (armed) anti-Soviet battle for liberation o Seize Parliament and government steps down o Nov 1: Hungary leaves the Warsaw Pact and becomes neutral Massive Soviet invasion and crackdown against the revolutionaries (4 November 1956) o New very strict government, and purges  The legacy of the Hungarian revolt: Unconditional acceptance by the West of the post-war division of Europe Around de same time, workers, wife takes the street and ask for a reform but just fore more money, they want more. So, the chief asks Khrushchev to send the red army, and there is a massive massacre. K replaced the government with a strict communism. At the same time, the British and the French will be intervened in Egypt. Hungarian have hope of an intervention from the western powers, but it was not going to happened. Changing power in USA. Eisenhower take the place of Truman. Decolonization and Collapsing Empires Colonialism Colonialism is a relationship between an indigenous (or forcibly imported) majority and a minority of foreign invaders. The fundamental decisions affecting the lives of the colonized people are made and implemented by the colonial rulers in pursuit of interests that are often defined in a distant metropolis. Rejecting cultural compromises with the colonized population, the colonizers are convinced of their own superiority and their ordained mandate to rule Osterhammel, 2005 The colonized World Colonialism Colonialism: key concepts Mercantilism o Strengthen the economy of the metropolis by exploiting the colony o Exclusive trade with metropolis British empire moves toward free trade by mid-19th Century Presence of (Christian) missionaries Divide and rule principle 31  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard The modern country dominates, and they decide everything in the way that serve their interest and its exclusive interest. The British Empire is the first. And other characteristics is the spread of the catholic religion. The most efficient way to maintain your colonies is to have the local population dominate another part of the population. Decolonization WWII: End of European-dominated system of Nation States and decline of major European powers Idea of self-determination Growing demands for independence o Defend from Japanese invasion o Destruction of the ‘white supremacy’ myth Rapid growth in number of countries Devastating impact of colonial rule o Seeds for future ethnic and community violence The Japanese invaded a part of Asia and a part of African population want to fight to liberate but they are fighting for their own liberation. Not the first time of independence but WWII will accelerate this. Self determination to go to war against Germany. The colonizer so the modern country feels superior to the others and WII show us it’s bases on nothing. They are not able to provide security against the invader so why are they there? The British Empire India Organized nationalist opposition: Congress Party (1888) o From inclusive (Hindus and Muslims) to Hindu o Ghandi (radical but non-violent) Muslim League wanted independent Muslim State British rule increased competition and conflict o Aug. 1946: violence between Hindus and Muslims British Withdrawal and independence hastened by Viceroy Mountbatten (Aug 1947) Partition and population transfers accompanied by bloodshed In British India, the anti-colonial Congress party was founded already in 1888. Although dominated by educated, westernized Indians, the Congress party became a broad-based mass party by the end of the First World War. It was then open to both Hindus and Muslims and could accommodate the radical, non- violent protests of Gandhi. The inclusive nature of the Indian National Congress Party would not survive the Second World War and the religious divisions which were to scar India in the late 1940s were already significant in the 1930s. The British must assume some responsibility for the increasing conflict and bitterness which began to affect Hindu and Muslim communities that had happily coexisted for hundreds of years. After 1935, political power in the provinces was up for grabs and this, alongside the attempts to secure 32  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard representation for both Hindus and Muslims, provided the reason for greater competition and conflict between the two communities. It eventually encouraged the Congress Party to become a Hindu Party, as the various Muslim political groupings came to be effectively dominated by Mohammed Ali Jinnah’s Muslim League. With Jinnah determined on a separate Muslim state it was difficult to see a way forward to a united India. British Prime Minister Attlee was in favour of Indian independence. Despite opposition from the military who wanted to keep their military bases in India, he pointed to the lack of any viable plans to remain in India and appointed Mountbatten as the viceroy charged with securing Indian independence. Mountbatten ignored the desirability both of defense agreements before independence and of a united India and brought the date for the transfer of power forward to August 1947. So, the independence of India was created in an unseemly rush and managed by a British plenipotentiary rather than ministers or officials in London. It brought the British little credit because population transfers between India and Pakistan were accompanied by large-scale bloodshed. Beginning of the end India was the crown jewel of the British empire Little reason to resist similar demands of independence of Ceylon (Sri Lanka in February 1948 and Burma in January 1948) The strategy was to accept independence and cooperate with moderates rather than loos control to radicals. Once India became independent, this is the beginning of the end. Every colony ask for their independence. Their perspective was either we find a compromise, or we just give up. It’s better to have friends than to fight with them and moreover they avoid the coming of a radical leader. The French empire A limited Role in the cold War? o Quid of France’s international status? o No special relationship with US o Build bridges with East France’s more independent course o European focus o Against US domination French colonial consensus Not as vast as the British empire but they have colonies everywhere in each continent, making France a world power. Indochina is very important for them. In France at this time there is a consensus among the population, France is an Empire that should remain an empire. The British are to dependant of US, the French fell the European should decide for themselves without the pression of USA. At the end of WWII there is no empire forever. For them, the part of this little club American and British will influence the part of the convention. France sees itself as a special role, not being clause as USA but having this long tradition on European continent. Maybe it’s the possibility for them to have more influence. Over the years, France will take on a more independent course throughout the 1950s and 60s, when general de Gaulle will be President. France will try to exert influence on international politics trough a stronger and more united Europe.  France wanted Europe to be free from any outside domination. 33  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Indochina Contrary to the British retreat, French chose to fight 1945: Viet Minh government in North Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) o Popular support, military support and supplies from China o British liberate south and French settlers come back French Union: indivisible French republic (new C°) o Theorical abolishment of French colonialism o Nov 1946: French bombing of Haiphong-beginning of protracted military struggle for control over Vietnam Importance of Vietnam for French position as global power By the end of the 40th the biggest problem for France is Indochina. Those different part constitutes Indochina; Laos, Cambodia and the three remaining parts now from Vietnam. What’s happed is during the war Japanese took a long part of it. As colonised by the France and invaded by the Japanese and after free by British. They felt France cannot defend them so why are they there. In the fight America will support Indochina. Its just people wanted more freedom in liberty. The way they were colonised: they said there is one union, and you are part of France, you’re not a colony because you are a part of our country. So, in this way colonialism was, in theory, abolished because these territories would now become an integral part of the republic, which was “one and indivisible”. In November 1946, the French bombardment of Haiphong marked the beginning of what would become a protracted military struggle for control over a united Vietnam. Created a military conflict between French and Vietnamese, very cost for French because on the two side of the world at the same time. Without Indochina that was hard to continue to be a world empire, it’s about their own identity. French realised it was better to give up. Geneva conference May 1954 o After French defeat in Dien Bien Phu Independence of Laos and Cambodia Division of Vietnam (North/South) o Elections to be held in 2 years End of hostilities and withdrawal of French troops US: save what could be saved from communism (Dominos Theory) Fruitless discussion on Korea They come to an agreement. The Vietnam will be separated along the 17th parallel in a northern, communist part and a southern anti-communist part, but only temporally. In two years, an action will be organised, and they will have one common military government. French agreed and that will be the End of Indochina. Given the circumstances in the country there will be interesting for them to turn communism. What USA want to avoid. That the domino theory, one turn to communism, the neighbour will turn too because in this regime you are supposed to spread the communism ideology. They are already lost China, Korea and they are afraid if Vietnam too, the entire Asia will be communism too. 34  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Domino Theory North Africa Protectorates of Morocco and Tunisia gain independence in 1956 Algeria integrates part of France o Abandoning Algeria = abandoning Alsace, for example Problem of settlers: French resistance to reform Disillusion with French promises → More radical nationalist demands The French will not end after the Geneva conference, the north Africa countries think that’s interesting we want our independence too. For them Algeria was like Alsace, it’s the power of France so they will not give up so easily. Algerian independence Brutal and bloody war in 1954 with FLN (Front de liberation nationale) Return of Charles de Gaulle in 1958 o Fifth Republic with stronger executive powers Evian accords 1962 o Technical assistance and financial aid < > Access to oil and military bases De Gaulle had different vision for France’s role in world politics o Not trough burdensome empire, but trough reinvigorated Europe Algeria was a problem even if they didn’t have special skill, they were determined. Algeria became more and more radical. Especially the politician right really wanted to fight for Algeria, people especially on the left they realised this war will cost a lot and they didn’t support the war. At a certain point it became dangerous in France, there was the possibility of a coup d’état, violence in France it-self. And they ask Charles de Gaulle if he want to come back. Charles de Gaulle said that we need a strong executive and a more powerful president and people voted and they voted that. It was the beginning with a very strong executive. In 1962, we have the Evian accords there will be aid to Algerian and there will still have access to the oil and military bases. De Gaulle realised if French want a role is not by an empire world, this time is over and it’s not easy to accept. France needs to lead Europe. The Suez Canal crisis Emergence of Col. Abdel Nasser British scheme for isolation and removal of Nasser Nationalization of Canal by Nasser in July 1956 o After withdrawal of US aid for the Aswan Dam o Increase Arab support o Legal buy-out Franco-British intervention following Israeli attack o Condemnation by both the Soviet Union and the USA o UN forces to secure cease-fire of 5 November 1956 35  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard  End of Britain and France as Great Powers  British influence only with US approval  Importation of cold War in the Middle East The real ending of the empire. In Egypt, this port is important for the British. In Egypt you have Nasser and he take power military he became the strong man. He thinks all the region that came will be as his regime. Egypt is a military state. He spoke very eloquently; his idea was the different country especially in that part are close and they should be more united. And USA and British they can push them away. They will be more economically powerful. USA believed maybe this guy can help us to broker peace between Israel and the Arabs and the British didn’t like this guy. So, they convinced the Americans to withdraw their support. Once the Americans no longer supported him. So, he went to the soviet to ask them and they provide aid to build the prestigious Aswan Dam. At one time soviet said we are no longer given you this aid. So, he decided to nationalize the Suez Canal. He was in fact acting perfectly legally and simply buying out the shareholders. The goal was to use the tolls to finance the Aswan Dam. Currently USA recognise China as communist. Means that the British and the French are not the ones in power anymore. The red line is how long it takes to go trough the Suez Canal and if they cannot pass by there, they need to do the yellow way. If you paid the price, you could past say Nasser, British didn’t like it but if you don’t pay you need to do a big detour. French was not a big fan because Nasser were allied during the independence of Algeria. So, the plan is Israel would first attack Egypt, Britain and France would then issue an ultimatum to cease fighting, when this would be refused, they would send forces to Egypt, allegedly to protect the Canal from the warring parties. It’s a stupid plan. So, what’s happened Israel attacked Egypt and British and the French send troupes. Americans tell British and French you need to stop and that happened as the same time as Hungary. You cannot tell them what you do it’s wrong, but USA did → uncomfortable situation for USA.  The real end of any empire. The Suez crisis revealed that Britain could only exercise influence and employ force in a regional context with the approval and support of the US. The US understood the situation from a Cold War perspective where they wanted to avoid Soviet interference and avoid that Egypt and other Arab countries would come under Soviet influence to guarantee their security. France and Britain had not foreseen this change in the international environment. This marked the end of Britain and France as World powers who could operate and intervene around the world as they pleased. Trough this process, you have the import of cold war into Egypt that why USA wanted to avoid. Belgian Congo Last part of Africa to be colonized Berlin Conference 1885: Congo Free State o Private control by Leopold II through the ‘Association Internationale Africaine’ o Exploitation of rubber, ivory and minerals by concessionary companies o Population is estimated to have decreased from 20 to 8 million under Leopold II’s rule 1908: Congo becomes a Belgian colony The second Leopold was looking for colonies to have more influence especially for a small king, it’s a way to think you’re bigger. He works hard, and he was able to plaid his card and during the Berlin conference he won Congo. The king promise to develop this country, he promised there will be free trade and it’s an interesting opportunity. But it becomes a company of exploitation of people and all the resources. It’s the 36  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard cruellest regime and the king is only interested in the resources. There is a purge of million of people, by 90s that attracts more and more attention, the British journalist provide the news. And there was this pressure on Belgium to avoid that. Congo crisis 30 June 1960: Congo gains independence: centralized country o Chaos and disorder due to lack of preparation and administrative capacity Province of Katanga proclaims its independence (11 July 1960), followed by South Kasai (8 August 1961) Congolese government asks for help from US, UN, then from Soviets o UN SC Res 143: UN command force and withdrawal of Belgian troops o No direct US support, UN cannot stop secessions o USSR sends 1000 military advisors Lumumba is considered the problem In May 1960, the Mouvement National Congolais (MNC) of Patrice Lumumba wins the general elections in Belgian Congo. On 30 June 1960, Congo gains independence, even though no provisions for transition had been made and Congo lacked sufficiently trained personnel and administrators. Whites are being attacked, and Belgium sends troops, which leads to more attacks, after which all white civil administrators leave, turning Congo into chaos. Shortly after the independence, violence between different ethnic groups had erupted. The Congolese government asks for assistance from the US, who refuse to provide unilateral military assistance to the Congolese government. They also turn to the UN, who will aid but does not have a mandate to stop the secessions. At this point, Lumumba turns to the Soviets. The Soviets decide to send military advisors, which causes discord within the Congolese government against Lumumba, and which will alarm the Americans, who fear losing Congo – and its resources – to the Soviets. For the newly elected Kennedy administration in early 1961, however, it is important for newly independent states to succeed. Gaining independence should not be seen as failure. On the other hand, the success of Lumumba would be seen by the Americans as opening the door to pro-Soviet or other radical left-wing groups in Africa. Hence Congo crisis II 5 Sept. 1960: Pres. Kasavubu dismisses PM Lumumba o Military takeover by Mobutu on 14 Sept. o Lumumba is assassinated in Katanga in Jan 1961 o US installs Cyrille Adoula as PM in July 1961 How to end Katanga secession? o UN troops are attacked, then UN retaliated and seized Elizabethville & Jadotville in 1963 Communist Simba rebellion in1964 1965: 2nd military coup by Mobutu  Cold War had reached Africa  Promotion of democracy < pro-Western regimes 37  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Through his request to the Soviets to intervene, Lumumba had lost international support, but also support within his own government. On 5 September 1960, President Kasavubu dismissed Lumumba from his position as prime minister. Mobutu dismissed both government and Parliament, placing Lumumba under house arrest, in the light of the growing problems in the Congo. The assassination of Patrice Lumumba: As Washington devised various plans for the liquidation of Congo’s first leader, in January 1961 Lumumba was moved to Katanga. At some point after the journey, he was executed by his captors. The US was thus relieved of the Lumumba problem, but still had to find and legitimize a Congolese leader who would be acceptable to African opinion. They settled on Cyrille Adoula, a former trades unionist, and when Parliament was reconvened, on 19 July 1961, CIA bribes effectively ensured that Adoula was elected prime minister. The priority for the new leader was to reunite the country, which above all required the ending of Katangan secession. Ending the Katangan Secession: And so, the final military climax resulted from what is probably a mistake; that is the eagerness of the Katangan mercenaries to fire on UN troops, probably initially without Tshombe’s instructions. Well trained Indian UN troops were then able to retaliate and seize control of the whole of Elizabethville. While the Americans stated their opposition to further fighting in Katanga, they were unable to influence events on the ground or even get reliable information on them, Indian UN troops marched on the Katangan mining towns of Jadotville and Kolwezi whose capture in January, including the Union Minière du Haut Katanga installations, signaled the end of secession.  By 1964 major parts of the country were controlled by the communist Simba rebels It was only when General Mobutu returned to power in 1965, with a military coup backed by the Americans, that order began to return, not under the banner of freedom and independence, but through brutal repression under a military strongman. It was characteristic of changing American policy in the less developed world, where the importance of promoting support for the West had come to be replaced by encouraging the imposition of pro-Western regimes whether the local populations liked them or not.  In this situation, the Cold War became even more about preserving the values of capitalism than enabling the spread of democracy. 38  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Ruanda-Urundi Part of German East Africa Under Belgian mandate after 1924 Relied on the existing power structures o Tutsi minority ruled over Hutu majority Rwanda: o 1960 local elections won by MDR–Parmehutu o 1 July 1962: Independence of Rwanda and Burundi o 1973: Coup of Juvénal Habyarimana in Rwanda o Instalment of one-party system Ruanda-Urundi had come under German rule after 1885, as part of German East Africa After the first WW, by 1924, the territories of present-day Rwanda and Burundi came under Belgian mandate. The Belgians relied on the existing social power structures whereby a Tutsi minority ruled over the Hutu majority. However, this was somewhat open to social mobility, as it was possible for a Hutu to accumulate enough wealth to become a Tutsi. The Belgians, however, institutionalized these differences and power structures to let the Tutsi rule the Hutus under Belgian mandate. In 1960, the MDR-Parmehutu win the local elections in Rwanda. Then, in July 1962, after the Congolese had already gained their independence, Rwanda and Burundi also become independent. In 1973, Jevenal Habyarimana seizes power through a coup and installs a one-party political system. Decolonization International level o Shift in power away from colonial powers after 1945 o US and USSR as important anti-colonial drive National level (colonial powers) o Limited capacity to retain colonies o Decreasing public support o Large differences between colonial powers Local level (colonies) o 1. Proto nationalism o 2. Rise of new leadership o 3. Mass nationalist movements  Influence of WWII: fighting for the liberation of Europe International: The US, especially, supported independence in countries with weak colonial rule and strong anti-communist liberation movements, like the Netherlands/Indonesia, but not like France/ Vietnam. decolonization quickly became a power play between the West and the East to conquer as many new members as possible to one’s own side – and particularly not losing any! National (in the colonial powers): There were large differences between colonial powers: consider, for example, the gradual autonomy in British colonies compared to the assimilation policies in the French colonies. Even within countries, there were differences in how territories were treated. France had much less troubles letting go of their mandate 39  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard over Morocco than Algeria, which they fully considered a part of France. The relationship between Congo and Belgium was also different than that with Ruanda-Urundi. Local in the former colonies: In the colonies, decolonization generally occurred through phases. The first phase is that of Proto nationalism; here the local populations demand for reforms within the existing system. Generally, they want more autonomy, better job opportunities The second phase is that of new leadership: This is the stage where the first talks of future independence occur, basically they want an improvement of the local situation, emancipation through better social conditions The third and final stage is that of nationalist movements with mass followings: here, you get movements that are actively working to obtain independence.  At this point, the only way to stop this movement, whose ideas are widely supported by the population, is using force. Latin America Dictatorship as widespread phenomenon Low Soviet presence or trade relationships Problems more linked to economic conditions than to ‘Soviet influence’ Dictators did not provide the expected stability for US Preferred right-wing dictators than progressive left-wing democratic regimes All Latin American countries have had at least some experience with dictatorial government since World War II. Initially, there was little to no Soviet presence or influence in this area, as they also did not have any significant trade relationships thee However, the social conditions throughout Latin America made this region vulnerable to communist ideas. In many countries, the numerous resources were being exploited by large mostly American companies and while these companies made gigantic profits, those who worked and produced, barely had enough to provide for their own families. The US had encouraged right-wing dictators in many Latin-American countries, as these would let the major companies continue their operations while also suppressing any opposition, including communist opposition groups. However, these dictators let the local conditions worsen so badly that it made the ideas of communism more popular. The way these populations saw it, was that they had no freedom anyway. Under communist rule, they might also not have any freedom, but they would at least have food on their plates.  The major observation or conclusion was that the West, and particularly America preferred right- wing dictators rather than progressive left-wing democratic leaders. They believed that left-wing regimes would be a first step towards communism. 40  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Cuban revolution 40% of sugar production under US control 1959: Fidel Castro ousted US backed dictator Fulgencio Batista o Broad public support o Expropriations (nationalization) of farmland Eisenhower directed plan for covert actions to overthrow Castro Kennedy “inherited” the plan when taking office in Jan. 1961 In the 1950s, 40% of Cuban sugar production was under US control. In Cuba, revolutionary rebels had been trying to get rid of Fulgencio Batista, a dictator backed by the US. In 1959, Fidel Castro gets rid of Batista and takes over. This revolution is broadly supported by the population, as Batista’s government was highly unpopular. Castro starts to nationalize farmland and other activities that were often owned by American companies. Eisenhower had asked for a plan to overthrow Castro through covert actions. When Kennedy took office in January of 1961, he “inherited” the plan from the Eisenhower administration: to send a small force that would gain popular support and overthrow the regime. Bay of Pigs Small force of Cuban exiles to land in April 1961 Flawed plan and bad advice: o Too few Cuban insurgent troops o Bad landing place / Bad intelligence ¡ No popular support o Unwillingness to openly engage American forces (covert)  Operation complete failure  Kennedy looks weak and inexperienced  Cuban fears of American interference  “Group Think” in decision-making (I. Janis) The Bay of pigs would become a case study for how bad group decisions could be made. While the American government was full of bright people, this plan and its execution was simply terrible. The plan was to send a small force of Cuban exiles that would briefly be trained militarily and land them in the Cuban Bay of pigs. The local population would then rise against Castro. Now, these Cuban exiles were no military, and they were not sufficiently trained for a military operation. They were also not numerous enough. The landing place was very badly selected, as the exiles could be seen from a far and would, consequently, easily be shot down. American intelligence claimed that there were no Cuban troops in that area. This was not the case. When the exiles landed in the bay, they could barely get out of the water and were immediately shot down by the Cuban military. The population would certainly not rise against Castro, as he was actually very popular. Without open support from the American military, the exiles were massacred and had no chance. Even without this support, it was clear that the Americans had organized this. Therefore, the operation was a complete disaster, Kennedy looked like a leader who does not know what he was doing, not only domestically, but also internationally. And the Cubans are now hyper alert and suspicious to any American interference, as they fear for their security. 41  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard The Cuban missile crisis Probably the most perilous passage of the Cold War o World on the brink of nuclear war April 1962: secret deployment of nuclear MRBM & IRBM in Cuba 16 Oct: discovery of launch sites by U2 US Options: o Air strikes: no 100% guarantee, risk of (nuclear) retaliation o Invasion or nuclear attack: nuclear counterattack o Naval Quarantine on military equipment of Soviet ships: initiative with the Soviets Quarantine begins on Oct. 24 o Determined, but most reasoned/restrained option Private letter from Khrushchev demanding guarantees for Cuba (27 Oct.) o Public letter also demanding the removal of Turkish nuclear missile sites Cuba will remain a priority on the international agenda, as the failed invasion of the bay of pigs will lead to a an even bigger crisis – one that involves both superpowers. This crisis at the end of 1962, following Khrushchev’s decision to secretly install intermediate and medium- range nuclear missiles in Cuba, has frequently been described as the time that the world stood on the ‘brink’ of a nuclear war between the superpowers. In April of 1962, the Soviets secretly installed MRBMs (Middle Range Nuclear Missiles) and IRBMs (Intermediate Range Nuclear Missile) in Cuba. On October 16th of that same year, an American U2 spy plane discovers the launch sites, plunging the two superpowers in a deep crisis and towards confrontation. When the Americans discovered the launch sites, three options were presented and discussed in the American government: Air strikes but no 100% guarantee to eliminate all the Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba. The result could be nuclear retaliation. An aal-out invasion of Cuba or a nuclear attack, but of course, also a risk nuclear retaliation from the Soviets. A naval quarantine on Soviet military equipment. Advantage: not too aggressive and would not risk immediate soviet retaliation and would, put the initiative with the Soviets.  And so, the American quarantine around Cuba begins on 24 October. Kennedy had decided to avoid being responsible for a nuclear holocaust. Khrushchev responds furiously but in a private letter to JFK offers a deal in which he proposes the removal of the Soviet missiles from Cuba in exchange for guarantees that the Americans would not invade Cuba. Later, in a public letter, Khrushchev also demands for the removal of the American missiles from Turkey. 42  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard End of the crisis JFK made two decisions: o No invasion and risk if missiles can be removed through Turkey deal o Reply publicly to the first – private – letter of Khrushchev Consequences: o Hot line between Moscow and Washington o Presented as Soviet Humiliation & beginning of the end for Khrushchev o Need for Soviets to bridge missile gap JFK thus made two important decisions. The first was not to let the crisis escalate by invading Cuba or using air strikes. It is important to know that the U.S. missiles in Turkey, at this point, had become obsolete, and the Kennedy administration had already planned to remove them before the crisis began. Therefore, it would not make sense for the Americans to risk a nuclear war over missiles that were no longer needed. But it was important for the Americans to show strength and to not publicly show any concessions, which is why Kennedy decided to respond to Khrushchev’s private letter, pledging not to invade Cuba. However, in private, the Americans also guarantee the removal of the missiles in Turkey. Consequently, The Americans and Soviets realized just how terribly dangerous this crisis had been and how close it had brought them to nuclear war. In fact, a Soviet nuclear submarine that was forced to surface by American vessels almost detonated a nuclear torpedo. To avoid future escalations, they decided to install the Hot line between Moscow and Washington, a direct line between the two leaders. The outcome of the crisis was considered as a humiliation for Khrushchev and the Soviets, as they had to back down and seemed to have gained very little. This crisis would also turn out to be the beginning of the end for Khrushchev For the Soviets, the conclusion was that they would need to bridge the missile gap with the Americans 43  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Soviet motivations behind Cuban Missiles Soviet considerations: o Cuban security – US threat of invasion or attack o Soviet perception of JFK as weak president o Soviet domestic critics and pressure (Missile Gap)  No real shift of power balance, only perception  Nuclear Arms race following Soviet humiliation There are a few possible explanations as to why Khrushchev decided to risk installing missiles that could threaten cities in most of the US. Some analysts would place Khrushchev’s motives in the local situation in Cuba, where the Castro regime appeared to be under threat from an American determination to bring it down through covert operations, or even by an invasion. Others see Khrushchev’s motives stemming from his inclination for bullying and intimidation, and his perception that Kennedy was a weak president he could take advantage of. Rather than from the local or the international situation, a third explanation stems from the domestic situation in the Soviet Union, which may have forced Khrushchev to be more adventurous in order to appease domestic critics. Khrushchev desperately needed a successful Soviet initiative, which would silence domestic critics by enhancing the Soviet position as a great world power and leader of the communist movement.  In the end, the Soviet leadership felt humiliated; they believed Khrushchev had conceded too quickly. Khrushchev believed that the situation had become out of control, and the power balance tilted in favour of the Americans who had a much larger nuclear arsenal. Publicly, it seemed the Americans had pushed the Soviets back while the Soviets only obtained the American promise to leave Cuba alone. Because of the perceived humiliation by the Soviet leadership, the Soviets will eventually get rid of Khrushchev and invest in their nuclear arsenal to achieve parity by the end of the 1960s. The Berlin Crises Exodus from East Germany through West Berlin o 200,000 people in 1960 o Brain drains: many skilled professionals Impossibility for satisfactory solution (zero-sum game) o Soviet aims ¡ Recognition of East Germany (capital Berlin) o Berlin as free, demilitarized, city o Avoid nuclear West Germany Reminder: West Berlin and the free access through all zones had become a big problem for East Germany and the Eastern bloc in general. The Americans knew that they could never defend West Berlin from a Soviet takeover, which is why Eisenhower made it clear that West Berlin was sufficiently important to retain even at the risk of general war. In the first year of the cold war a lot of people from the east move to west (people with intellectual level especially). Even the borders were established, it was possible. This continue, after Soviet wanted this to stop but the ally’s country had an agreement on Berlin, and it was important this free passage trough the 4 zones was preserved. 44  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard But the soviet wanted to close that, and they wanted to stop that because moreover loos citizen, it was contradicted with the propaganda surrounding the Soviet communist model. The success of communism, as an economic force, stood in contrast with the growing desire for people to escape from its clutches in East Germany, in order to share in the economic success of capitalism. The real problem was that there was no possible resolution of the situation that would satisfy both sides. From the communist perspective the status quo had to change, whereas from the American perspective it was vital to preserve it. This is what we call a zero-sum game, whereby any gain to one party would be at the expense of the other party. This means that no solution would be possible whereby both parties are satisfied and win. The situation in Berlin at that moment was such that there would always be a winning and a losing party. At this moment, the status quo meant a win for the West. The Soviets had been asking the Americans to negotiate a solution for a while. But the Americans, of course, preferred the status quo – and not change or concede anything. Among their demands, the Soviets wanted The West to recognize East Germany with Berlin as its capital Berlin as a free and demilitarize city (implying the removal of all troops), but of course, once the Western troops would be gone, there would be no guarantee that the Soviets or East Germans wouldn’t take full control of the city They wanted to avoid nuclear weapons in West Germany. Berlin Crises: Ultimatum and Negotiations Nov 1958: Soviet ultimatum o Rejected by NATO powers o Khrushchev Backs down Khrushchev visits Eisenhower in US in Sept 1959 Vienna summit (June 1961) o Khrushchev – JFK confrontation o Threat/ultimatum of unilateral Treaty with East Germany o Conventional military build-up Stalemate: will USSR take military action and would US then go to war? In November of 1958, Khrushchev posed an ultimatum to Eisenhower with the demands we just mentioned previously. NATO countries reject this ultimatum and Khrushchev eventually backs down, as he has very little leverage to push his agenda forward. At that point, East Berlin was still controlled by the Soviets, as had been agreed by the four allied countries after the second World War. The West did not recognize East Germany as a sovereign country. For Khrushchev, it was essential that West Germany would not acquire nuclear weapons, as his fear was that Western Germany would try to take over East Germany with the threat of nuclear weapons. Khrushchev later visits the United States in September 1959 and meets personally with Eisenhower. During this personal meeting, Eisenhower shows understanding to the Soviet problem and concerns, which temporarily reduces the tensions, as all these meetings seem to suggest to Khrushchev that the West is perhaps willing to make concessions and come to a negotiated solution which, in fact, it is not. At the Vienna summit of June 1961, Khrushchev tries to impress and bully the much younger and less experienced Kennedy, who had just replaced Eisenhower. 45  Geopolitics Q2 Babette Léonard Therefore, Kennedy pushed through a conventional arms build-up, with the aim of giving US forces more flexibility and he announced the call-up of reservists. The real question was whether the Soviets would take any military action to change the status quo and, if they did, would the Americans go to war in response. Berlin Crises: building the wall 13 Aug 1961: borders to West Berlin are closed As a solution to avoid confrontation, a wall was built around West Berlin, restricting access to East Berliners Soviets failed to change status quo West could not stop the wall Brief ‘confrontation’ of tanks across the border in October On 13 August 1961, the borders to West Berlin are closed to stop the refugee flow from East to West. They made it physically impossible to go trough east from west. A month later, works started on building a wall that would separate east and west Berlin, preventing East Berliners from going to the West. This basically ended the haemorrhage of skilled labour from East Germany and effectively ended the Berlin crisis. The Soviets had failed to change the status quo maintained by the Western powers, but the West had been unable to stop the building of a wall. The building of the wall did not come as a surprise to the West. On 31 July 1961, Kennedy himself had acknowledged that Khrushchev would have to stop the refugee flow and do something, perhaps even building a wall. And that is how the Berlin wall was built, a wall that will remain there for almost 30 years  Soviet were not able to change the statues quo, but they impose a solution. It was not clear how the West will react, but they accepted because of avoiding a war. 46