Geology PDF - Natural Hazards and Disasters

18moredays of thisclass Note we can neverpredict geology thedamage that a natural...

18moredays of thisclass Note we can neverpredict geology thedamage that a natural disaster will cause week 1 2 Whyshouldwe studyNaturalHazards Hugelossofpropertyinjury anddeath Hugeeconomicloss Lossesare hardtopredict and maynotbeobvious in their connection to causes 1995KobeJapanearthquake Tookmore thansooolives Destroyedseveralthousand buildings billion1995 inpropertydamage costmorethan100 useof Examples survivorwitnessaccountsshowdirect experiences with hazardousevents maybeinfluencedbytrauma scientistswithprofessionalexperienceareusedtogiveunbiasedanalyses casestudiesare used to inustratespecificpoints KeralaLandslides Kerala state on swcoastof india LowestelevationinIndia somebelowsealevel severelandslideshithillyareasonJuly30 one of theworstdisasters ever 200kined100s buried had to bedugout byarmy Themonsoonsthat are commonin indiacanlead to a depletioninsoilstrength JapanEarthquake seismicallyactive area manyearthquakes Goodbuildingquality January1st 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit northernmostpeninsulaof Noto 504deaths Mainshockinjured 1300people 178270structuresdamaged i Earthouakes can of rain as it creates looser soil Amagnitudeof 7 mainshock first or strongest shock Thedeepertheearthquake thelesspossibilityof damageas theenergy is dispersed absorbed Moreenergyreleased moredamagecaused HurricaneHelene sept26 category hurricane Allfactorscombinedtomakeverybig highsea surfacetemperatureshighhumidity and slowmovement HitFloridaCuba andMexico 232peoplekined Damage at least 22billion Theoriginalmeasurementscale was category 1 5 buttheyare likelyto addmore due to globalwarmingleadingto more intensehurricanes Thehigher the categorynumbertheworsethehurricane stronger winds Acategory 4 is bigenough andstrongenough to causedamage windspeed movement speed Movementspeed Howfast thehurricanemoves across the land slowermovement speed moreprecipitation andstrongerwinds forlonger HurricaneMilton Lastedoctober 5 13 october 9 category 3hurricane initiallycategory5  Lowercategory but stillveryhighwinds and rain lotsofdamage Hitwestcoastof moridalessthana weeks afterhurricanehelene second most intensestormin theGulfof Mexico Tornadoeshailandhighwindsplus a lotofrain 32deadin USA 3 inmexico Thehurricane was spinningofftornadoes Tornadoeshave a small geographic impact SuperTyphoonYagi FormedAugust31 andcontinued untilseptember9th SEAsiaandChina'smostpowerfulstorm HitphilippinesHongKongChinavietnamandMacau Total844deaths2279injuries Damage 16abillion Triggered manylandslides columbiaDroughts worstheat and drought on recordin Amazon riverbasin began mid 2023 columbiahas one of the most aggressive climateplans but it had to be reversedbecause66 of poweris fromhydroelectricity Reservoirs at 53 capacity droughtforced40 ofelectricityfrom fossilfuels upfrom25 Hotter air is able tohold more water Droughts result in waterbeingtaken up intotheatmosphere when the atmospherebecomessaturatedwith water it canlead to deluges andfloods IndiaHeatwaves Newrecordset as extreme heat occurred in 93 ofdays officiallybeganin may 2024 over3200peoplekilledin first 9 monthsof 2024 Hadthehighestimpact on thosewho were at eitherendof theagespectrumchildren elderly Indiais a poorercountrythereforethere was notmanypeoplewithfans or Acunits thusthere was no way to cooldown Chilewildfires In february amassivewildfireburnedmuchof centralChilekillingover Bopeople Dry weather wasmadeworse by ElNino Elnino Thewarmingof theoceanssurface temperature LaNina thecoolingof the oceanssurfacetemperature Youcan'tfighturbanfires the samewayasyoufight a wildfire making it moredifficult Brazilfloods Neartheendofapril heavy rainscausedrecordfloods killedover180people in RioGrande Do SulBrazil 500000peoplefeedtheirhomes over 77000 inpublicshelters natural Hazards in canada Earthquakes floods Hail icebergsseaice fog Landslidessnow avalanches Tornadoes Tsunamis stormsurges volcaniceruptions winter storms  Annualcost to Canada CanadianDisasterFinancial AssistanceArrangementsDFAA spent 486minionin 201617 495millionin 201718and 310minion in2018 a Thiscoversassistance after firesfloodsicestorms and similardisasters severeweathercost 1.3 billion ininsured damages in20192020 Muchdamageandcost isrelatedtoclimateforcedincidentsandthecost of thesehas doubled in thepastdecade DFAAProblems Nodefinitivestudyof economicimpactof naturalDisasters in Canadaevermade PresentProgramstartedin 1970 needsrevision mustcoordinatewithprovincesandterritoriesto bestartedcontinued Thresholdtripledin 2015 BUTincidenceandseverityincreasing Foodcoverageshouldbe requiredinhomeinsurance timetoencourageprotection or relocation subsidizein highrisk areas ratesdeclineover Buyoutsshouldbeofferedandmademanditory in highest risk areas Problems with equity in differentways 10MostExpensiveNaturalDisasters ByCanadian insurance FortMcMurray wildfires2016 4billion on acthunderstorm2022 875million EasternIcestorm1998 2.3billion Torontoflood2005 780million southernABfloods2013s1.8 billion on windstorm 2018 695million AB Hailstorm2020 1.2Billion BCflood 2021 675million Torontoflood2013 1billion HurricaneFiona2022 660minion Equity HorizontalEquity Disastercompensationimpliestransferfrompeoplewho livein lessriskyareas to thosein more risky areas ex equitybetweenstudents provincesvary insizeof Deaa claims verticalEquity noneligibilityof luxuryassetsandcaps on payouts in aofioprovincesmeanDFAAistargeted to lowerincomepropertyowners exequitybetweenstudents p Delaysinpayment is mostproblematicto low incomeowners Manitoba RedRiver floods Governmentbuilt a bypasscommentyrefferedto as DuffsDitch Thecitydidn'twant to spendmoney to bring inequipment to movedebris Dueto thisthe citydidn't open the floodgateswhich led to various lawsuits Note thegovernment is morelikelyto providemoney to provinces territories thataren'tconsistently submittingclaimsCABbecause wedon'ttend tohave a large amount of Natural disasters HorizontalEquity NoteHurricaneFionahit newfoundlandparticularlyhard week 3 A smartHazardApproach Mostpeople are tooconcernedwithhazards common to their location egcalgaryfloodsvancouver earthquakes weneed abalanced multi lateralapproach to studyhazards and disasters why Economicglobalization multinationalinfo accessandnegativeimpact of humanson our globalenvironment eg2011magnitudeao earthquake in japancaused a radiationleakand tsunami that affected all of westernNorthAmerica egnov2021raintemporarilyclosedhighways in southernBCforcingground transportations to re routethrough the northern us Added to covidsupplychain problems more timeandexpenseinvolved morethanthelocal area affected conceptualframework forDecision making 1 Hazardscanbepredicted through scientificanalysis mosteventsandprocessescan be monitored andmapped or recordedfor predictions Futureactivitycanbe forcastedbasedonpastevents frequencymagnitudepatternofoccurances 2Riskanalysis is an importanttool in understandingtheeffectsof hazardousprocesses mostevents can be quantifiedsoprobabilitiesandconsequences can beestimated 3Linkagesexistamongdifferentnaturalhazardsandbetweenthemandtheirphysicalenvironment oneprocesscantriggeranother eg an earthquakecan trigger a tsunami or heavy rain can cause a landslide 4 Damagefromhazards is increasing Hazards thatpreviously were disasters are now catastrophes Aspopulationsgrow more peopleandfinancialinvestmentsare at risk climatechangeandhumanactivity increasebothmagnitudeand frequencyof events 5Damage and lossof life fromhazards can be minimized complex interconnected systemsneed anintegratedapproachusing manydisciplines andperspectives to optimize results Limitationsof conceptualframework Inspiteofhavingagoodsystem therewillalwaysbe situations we cannotrecord analyzeor predict with anydegree of certainty Reasons are numerous locations are tooremote eventstoorapid forcestoo large processesnot well understood whyuse a systemsapproach i 55 g Allanalysesneedsometypeof system for organization since Hazards areprocesseswherework isdonetheyall needenergy tofunction It isusefultoorganizeanalysisby thesource and amountof energy s of energy intein 1Earths After earth was formed 3mechanisms caused heatingandmelting of the interior collisions of atoms compression ex chinooks Radioactivityof elements These produceslowmantle convection thatleadsto plate tectonicscausingearthquakesandvolcanoes Heat rises creatingconvection currents convection heat atoms move quickly atoms are dispersed lessdense Rises as it rises itcoolsand becomesdenser sinks Heatsup Ascendinglimb Denser Descending limb Lighter 2 Energyfrom the sun Heating of theearthssurfacebythesun causesatmosphere andoceancirculation makeswindandevaporateswater Givesus our climate Thisproducesviolentstormshurricanestornadoshail droughts floodssoilandcoastalerosion Morewind moreevaporation moreheatintheatmosphere morewind oceancurrents are known as the globalheatengine 3 GravitationalAttraction of the Earth Leadsto mass wastingprocesseswherematerialsmovedownslopeavalanches landslidesmudslides etc The earth attracts objectsfromspaceasteroid meteoriteimpacts Earth acts like amagnet  cause vs Trigger Bothare usedto describewhat makes a hazard occur but differ intimeframe cause longterm buildupof conditions that create a hazard Trigger shortterm eventthatinitiatestheaction of thehazard unfortunately in commonusageboth are lumpedtogetheras cause eg landslidesavalanches slipon ice correlation vs causation correlation is a statistical termused to describethedegreeto which a variablesmove in coordination with eachother Positivecorrelation variablesmovein the samedirection negativecorrelationvariables moveinoppositedirections inpractical terms correlationmeans 2 things occur at the same time without one beingcausedby theother causationmeans that a directcauseand effect relationship hasbeenestablishedbetweena variables so that a change in the first variableproduces a changein the secondvariable is then Natural vs Anthropogenic Natural systemsor actionsthathumanshavenodirectactionorconsequence on nature is responsible Anthropogenic systemsor actionsthathumanshave adirectaction or consequenceon People are responsible Thedivision is notalwaysclear sometimes thereareboth natural and humancauses or influences Happenswherenaturalprocessesorconditionscanalso beproduced or enhanced bypeople egclimatechangecausedbyhumansaddingcoato theatmosphereforceshazards egminingactivity at FrankABproduced a rockslide thatmayhavehappenedanyways Hazardvs Risk Hazardthepotential tocauseharm Riskthelikelihoodofharmtakingplaceprobability isknown standingnear theedge of a cliff is a hazard thecloseryouget to the edgeof the cliff thehigher the risk becomes Risk vs uncertainty risk indecisionmakingsituations whereallpotentialoutcomes and their likelihood of occuranceis known to the decisionmaker uncertainty indecisionmakingsituationswhereeitheroutcomes and or theprobabilitiesof occurances are unknownto thedecision maker Livingin vancouverBCthereis a risk of earthquakes but theprobabilityofonehappeningat a giventime is an uncertainty Risk vs Impact Risk anevent thatmayor maynothappen probabilityisknown impact what willhappen if the risk occurs livingin vancouverBcyouknowtherisk of an earthquake but the impactof it dependsonyourspecificlocation andthebuildings landscapes etc Riskvs vulnerability Risk anevent that mayor maynothappen probability isknown risk is independent of vulnerability vulnerability a weaknessin asystemthat hasno context to the impactinvolved This rarelyhappens forpeoplebecause injuryand damage resut fromimpactvulnerability isn't really associated with a natural risk vulnerability vs susceptibility vulnerability a weakness in a systemthat has nocontext to theimpact involved susceptibility somethingis likelytohappen susceptibility is likelytohappento peoplebecause it resuts from risk but vulnerability is not Magnitude vs Frequency Magnitude theamount of energyreleased Frequency howoften a similareventhappens we know that largereventshappenlessoftenand smallereventshappenmoreoften This is known as the magnitude frequencyrelationgivenby theequation M Fe Forearthquakeshighfrequencygiveslowmagnitude energy is releasedwitheachquakeso magnitudeis low FewquancesLowfrequency meansmagnitudeis high energy isstored Inthepast geologistsdebated the importance of largerare events shapingtheearth catastrophism vs the importance of many small events thathappenoften uniformitarianism ReactiveResponseRecovery Reactive response is a recoveryattemptcanwe recoverfrom a natural disaster It dependson what typeof disaster it is anddepends on themagnitude and frequency ofsimilarevents Disaster effects are directandindirect Directeffectsincludedeathsinjuries displacement ofpeople propertydamage Indirecteffectsincludecropfailurestarvation emotionaldistressloss of employmentloss of tax revenuesfrompropertylossesandhighertaxes to pay for recover The importanceof direct and indirecteffectsmaynot beobvious ex themost significanteffectsfrom volcaniceruptions are indirect cropfailureand starvation not lava or explosions stages of recovery in orderare emergencywork restoration ofservicesandcommunication and reconstruction Potential Natural Hazards Bytype Atmospheric volcanic seismic wildfire Geologic Astronomic Hydrologic climatechange Atmospheric Hazards Hailstorms Icestorms freezingrain Hurricanes and typhoons Tornadoes Tropical storms seismic Hazards Fault ruptures ground shaking lateral spreading Liquefaction Tsunamis seiches Earthquakes requances Lossof ground water Geologic Hazards Debris avalanches Expandingsoils landslides Rockfans submarineslides subsidence sinkholes mineral hazardsradongasmercury asbestos contaminated groundwater mine related accidents Failureof icedammedglaciallakesand jokulhlaups Glaciallakeoutburst floods Glo Hydrologic Hazards coastal flooding Desertification Drought salinization Erosion deposition Riverflooding stormsurges rogue waves volcanic Hazards TephraCash cinderslapilli Gases Lava flows mudflows projectilesand lateral blasts pyroclastic flows acid rain acidified water starvation wildfire Hazards Brush forest Grass Savannah AstronomicHazards Bolide impact climate change Hazards Droughts floods Hurricane tornadostrengthsincrease storm surges increase forest fires increase Hazards by season Hazardsvary in when they occur by time by latitude and byhemisphere Northernhemisphere andsouthernhemisphere are reversed when wehave winter shemihassummer Latitudeshiftshazards often start in lowerlatitudes andmove to higherlatitudes wildfires May october 2023started inmarchand 10 moreseverethanpastyears floods any time but most commoninlate spring early summer Avalanches November May withmost in December march Hurricanes Atlantic June1st November30 Tropicalcyclones Atlantic August September Tornadoes Aprilseptember worstwindsJuneJuly Landslides November march or with heavy rain Elninoyears seemtooccur veryoftenin November and march april week 4 Climateforcingof natural hazards naturalhazards asignificantpresent risk maybecomeanincreasedfuturerisk climatechangeforcesalteredconditionsthat create orstrengthenHazards Toassessincreased risk we must lookat past andpresentclimatechange Needto lookat howclimatechange is measured what is climate forcing climateforcingiswhere changesin climate force a responsefromsystems that wouldnot happenifclimatedidnotchange Particularlyconcernedwhen thisforcingcreatespotentialforhazardsorcatastrophesactuallycreatesthem orincreasesthe riskofexistinghazards usuallyclimateforcingis fartoostrongforpeopletochangetheforcingmechanism so wemustlearntoadaptto theresultinghazardsinstead climateforcingconcerns 1 Periodsof exceptionalclimatechange are associated withdynamicanddangerous responses theNimis notinmybackyard reactionpreventsresponse 2 changesin environmentconditionsmakemechanisms thatcancreateresponsesintheearth'scrustand sometimesdeeper 3 weneedto identifylinksbetweenclimateforcingandenvironmentalresponsesthehazards 4 modelingandprojectionof currentwarmingtrendspointtowardsincreasedriskandrangeofhazards 5Theongoingrise in globaltemperaturesmayalreadybecreatinga hazardousresponsefrom the earth Howclimate changes Through time earth has experienced cyclesof climatechange manydrivenby thegeometric orientation ofearthrelative tothesunanddescribedbythemilankoviccyc 3geometricvariations 3cycleslengths shapeorbit 100,000yearcycle Eccentricity egg obliquity tilt oftheearth23.50 41,000yearcycle Precession tiltofearthwobbling2226,000yearcycle Measuringclimatechange modernchangeis measuredbydirectmethodsusingsensitiveinstruments Disadvantages extrapolationinto future is difficultbecausewehavesuch a shortperiodof observation Advantage measurements can be calibratedsotheyarebothaccurate andprecise Ancientchangemeasuredbyindirect or proxymethods use a variety ofevidence note ancientchangemeasurement isn'tnearlyas accurate usedonanychangeolderthantheperiodofinstrumental measurement unfortunately evidencemay or may not bepresent ingeographic areas ortimes that people want to investigate Manytypesofproxyevidencephysicalchemical andbiologicaleachwiththeirowndegreeofreliability PhysicalProxies notveryreliable ex Icewedgeneedsameantemperature of 1st chemicalProxiesveryreliablebutlimitedamountaccess ex oxygenisotopes  Historicalproxies written recordsof climate relatedconditionslongbeforewehadaccurateinstruments to measure climatedirectly Ex thehudsonsbaycompanyrecords BiologicalProxies usingancientorganisms andexaminingtheconditions theorganismwouldneedto live Relyon anancientspeciesbeingtheancestorofthemodernspecieswhichis assumedtolivein thesameenvironment modernspeciescangivearangeofparameters temperatureprecipitation etc in whichthespecieslives Eachspecieswillhaveadifferentrangeof parameters inwhich it canlive so themoreproxies for agivenenvironment thecloser we candetermine the exact conditions TERMTESTONE